DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 4

Photo: USA Today Sports

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• Kansas City at Detroit (54) and Tampa Bay at the LA Rams (50) are the only two games on the main slate with implied totals of at least 50 points. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,500) will be popular (as usual) and should boost the ownership of the Lions’ best offensive weapons -- Kenny Golladay ($5,900) and Kerryon Johnson ($5,400) -- by association. You won’t exactly be sneaking Rams players past your opponents, but Jared Goff ($6,300), Robert Woods ($6,100), Cooper Kupp ($6,500), and Brandin Cooks ($6,200) aren’t the flashiest players in the respective price ranges. Stacking LA’s passing game is shaping up as a sound tournament strategy

• With three weeks in the books and 2019 data beginning to stabilize, ownership will begin concentrating on offenses matched up against perceived poor defenses. Players from the Chargers (at Dolphins), Seahawks (at Cardinals), and Giants (vs. Washington) will be in high demand as a result.

• Quarterback roster rates could be as flat as they’ve been all year, with standout options at the top, middle, and lower price tiers. About 10% of entrants will pay up for Mahomes in any given week, Russell Wilson ($6,100) pops as the obvious mid-priced play, and Daniel Jones ($5,300) is too cheap relative to the 40-point upside he showed in last week’s debut. No individual quarterback’s ownership rate will be prohibitive in GPPs, but be prepared for several iterations of a common roster construction based on how heavily your opponents choose to spend at the position.

• Saquon Barkley is out for a while, Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott are off the main slate, and Dalvin Cook ($8,300) is in a tricky spot at Chicago, leaving Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) and Austin Ekeler ($8,000) to hog ownership at the top of the running back charts. Typical lineups should include one of McCaffrey or Ekeler, along with a sub-$6K RB2, to leave room for at least one pricy wide receiver. Kerryon Johnson and Chris Carson ($5,700) are the usual suspects. Barkley’s fill-in -- Wayne Gallman ($4,600) -- also profiles as a common RB2/flex in stock roster builds.

• Without many appealing top-shelf running backs, wide receiver spending should increase from last week. Keenan Allen ($7,600) is on a heater and primed to wreck the Dolphins’ beleaguered secondary, Julio Jones ($7,800) has reached 30 DraftKings points in consecutive games, and Mike Evans’ ($7,100) monster Week 3 performance will cause some entrants to point chase, especially if Chris Godwin is out or limited. Kenny Golladay ($5,900) and Tyler Lockett ($6,300) are likely WR2 options in the upper-middle tiers. Heavy spending at RB1 and WR1 will contribute to Washington’s Terry McLaurin ($4,600) getting piled on as a WR3 after his third-straight game with at least five catches and one touchdown.

• About two-thirds of the field’s collective tight end ownership will settle on Travis Kelce ($7,200), Evan Engram ($5,700), Darren Waller ($5,200), and Mark Andrews ($5,000). Punting tight end with a (non-Will Dissly) sub-$4K option is a simple way to force unique builds this week.

• It’s difficult to fit the Chargers ($3,800) under the cap, but 15% of the field played Dallas at $4,300 vs. Miami last week, so it’s a safe bet the crowd will find a way. Most lineups won’t be able to spare more than $3K or so at DST, which will raise the ownership of teams like Denver ($2,900 vs. Jacksonville) and Seattle ($3,300 @ Arizona).

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

QB: Russell Wilson (@ARI, $6,100, 12% owned)
Wilson enters this game white-hot with a combined 72 DraftKings points in his previous two games. There is no doubting his ceiling in a matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses, but too many things beyond his control have to go right for Wilson to pay off at high ownership in tournaments. First, the Cardinals offense will have to show up. If Kyler Murray and co. look anything like they did last week vs. Carolina, Seattle will be able to execute its run-first game plan. The results would look similar to Week 1 when Wilson only needed to throw 20 passes to beat the Bengals. While Murray should improve against the Seahawks, the Cardinals' defense still has to stop Chris Carson on the ground. Unless Murray is so good Arizona is blowing Seattle out, Brian Schottenheimer will keep calling run plays until the final whistle. Spread your exposure around at quarterback.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (@HOU, $8,800, 29% owned)
It feels silly to have thought McCaffrey’s production would suffer without Cam Newton after watching him roll to the second-best rushing performance of his career in Week 3. Small sample notwithstanding, McCaffrey has now totaled at least 178 yards from scrimmage in both of Kyle Allen’s starts. Allen looks competent enough to keep the offense afloat, which makes it safe to project McCaffrey as the overall RB1 on this slate. As an added bonus, the Texans have allowed eight running back receptions per game this season, which is second-most in the league. McCaffrey will be heavily-owned, but without Barkley, Kamara, and Elliott on the slate, this could be a week where you need him to win. Don’t come in lighter than the field.

WR: Terry McLaurin (@NYG, $4,500, 23% owned)
A hamstring injury is threatening to bust up Terry McLaurin chalk week, but as long as he practices Friday, expect to see him in 25-30% of lineups. McLaurin should cost closer to $6K but his third consecutive game with at least five catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown came on Monday Night Football after Week 4 pricing had been released. In a perfect storm for inflated ownership, the bad price coincides with a matchup against the Giants wretched secondary. Per Pro Football Focus, New York cornerback DeAndre Baker has allowed the most fantasy points per route defended this season. Former shutdown corner, Janoris Jenkins, has fallen off a cliff. His coverage was responsible for 176 out of Mike Evans’ 177 receiving yards last week, including all three of his touchdowns. As tempting as it will be to make McLaurin one of the first names you click this week, fading him is the easiest way to avoid constructing a common roster. Max out around 10-12% exposure.

TE: Evan Engram (vs. WAS, $5,700, 22% owned)
Engram racked up eight targets in Daniel Jones’ debut, but most weren’t of the fantasy-friendly variety. His average depth of target (aDOT) dropped from six yards in two games with Eli Manning to just four last week despite Jones being the much better downfield thrower. Had Engram not recorded 83 yards after the catch, most of which came on this 75-yard touchdown reception, we would be looking at him much differently this week. The path of least resistance against Washington’s defense has been targeting perimeter wide receivers against their depleted cornerback group. But since the Giants’ only viable wideout -- Sterling Shepard -- plays in the slot, we can safely assume Engram will remain a major part of the game plan. Washington safety Landon Collins isn’t known for his coverage skills, so Engram does have a path to another ceiling game. He’s just not as likely as Travis Kelce to appear in a first-place lineup, nor is he twice as likely as Darren Waller, which is what his projected ownership implies. Engram is a fade this week.

DST: LA Chargers (@MIA, $3,800, 18% owned)
The defenses facing Miami have scored 13, 37, and 12 DraftKings points, respectively, this season. If you’re looking for a floor, the Chargers are your team. Defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III are mismatches for the Dolphins league-worst offensive line, suggesting a 20+ point game is in play as well. You should rarely go over the field on the top-owned defense due to the week-to-week variance at the position, and the Chargers are no exception this week. Miami is so awful across the board, however, it’s scary to short the field. 10-15% exposure is warranted.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

QB: Lamar Jackson (vs. CLE, $6,900, 6% owned)
This is a great spot to chase last week’s busted chalk. The Chiefs defense may lack talent, but Arrowhead remains a tough place to play for any quarterback, let alone Jackson, who was making only his 10th regular-season start. As bad as he looked in Kansas City (51% completion rate, 6.2 yards per attempt), Jackson still managed 21 DraftKings points, which might be close to his floor in 2019. This week, he’s back at home and playing against a disheveled Cleveland team that has been easy to beat in the defensive backfield without star cornerback Denzel Ward, who is uncertain to return in Week 4. If Marquise Brown can slip past a beatable secondary for a few big plays (he saw a ludicrous 217 air yards last week), Jackson is back in business as a tournament-winning quarterback. We’ve seen nothing to convince us this won’t be a complete squash-match in Baltimore’s favor. Load up on the Ravens in general.

RB: Derrick Henry (@ATL, $6,300, 8% owned)
Henry is Tennessee’s only prayer of coming out of Atlanta with a win. After Marcus Mariota’s latest debacle in Jacksonville, it would make sense for the coaching staff to hide him by emphasizing the running game. Henry has split snaps fairly evenly with Dion Lewis this season, but the Titans have looked to him on 80% of the team’s total backfield touches. Playing running backs against the Falcons is typically a requisite on any slate and now they’ll be without strong safety Keanu Neal, who tore his Achilles last week. Neal is an in-the-box safety known for his run-stopping ability. Atlanta’s defense will feel his absence, especially when trying to tackle Henry 20+ times.

WR: Odell Beckham Jr (@BAL, $7,300, 10% owned)
If the plan is to stack Ravens in a potential blowout, you’ll want to run it back with a Cleveland pass-catcher for garbage-time points. There is no better option than Beckham, who has commanded 28% of Baker Mayfield’s season-to-date targets and 34% of the team’s air yards. Baltimore has a tough defense, but their secondary is missing starting cornerbacks Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith, and it has shown in the box scores. The Ravens are the only team who has let DeVante Parker make an impact this season (7-3-75-0), Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald both exceeded 100 yards against them in Week 2, and Mecole Hardman got behind them for an 83-yard touchdown last week. Beckham may not need garbage time to produce in this matchup. Double the field on your exposure.

TE: Mark Andrews (vs. CLE, $5,000, 9% owned)
On the topic of busted Week 3 Ravens chalk, Andrews delivered 4.5 DraftKings points at 18% ownership in last week’s Milly Maker. A foot injury that made him a game-time decision last week, and kept him out of this week’s practices through Thursday, clouds his outlook against Cleveland. We’ll need to keep an eye on Friday’s practice reports, but Andrews’ popularity will plummet despite posting his usual underlying peripheral stats while playing through the injury in Week 3. Andrews played his regular allotment of snaps vs. Kansas City, ran 35 pass routes (fourth-most of any tight end last week), and was targeted seven times. Jackson and the offense just had a down game. As long as he’s in the lineup, Andrews still has overall TE1 upside against the Browns, who were lit up by Delanie Walker in Week 1 (6-5-55-2) and haven’t played a team that features a tight end in the passing game since.

DST: Chicago Bears (vs. MIN, $3,400, 7% owned)
Kirk Cousins has four fumbles (one lost) and two interceptions despite ranking 29th among quarterbacks in total dropbacks this season. Minnesota’s offensive line has done an admirable job keeping Cousins upright, ranking fourth in Football Outsiders adjusted sack rate (which measures sacks per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent). Chicago’s defensive line, led by all-world edge rusher Khalil Mack, still represents a mismatch. The Bears have 11 sacks through three games and their defensive backfield has enough talent on the perimeter to neutralize Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

QB: Tom Brady (@BUF, $6,600, 2% owned)
Most entrants will be turned off by Brady’s QB3 price tag in a perceived tough matchup with Buffalo, which makes stacking the Patriots a leverage play in GPPs. The Bills have an above-average defense but are otherwise as fraudulent as 3-0 teams come. They’ve beaten the Jets, Giants, and Bengals thus far -- essentially the polar opposites of New England. The Patriots are favored by a touchdown and implied to score about 25 points. If you buy Vegas’ line, which seems reasonable, there is room for three New England touchdowns. With the team’s running game stuck in neutral, Brady has accounted for multiple touchdowns (and at least 23 DraftKings points) in every game this season. Josh Gordon (difficult one-on-one matchup against Tre’Davious White), Julian Edelman, and James White are all projected under 5% ownership, which guarantees any Patriots stack you play will give you a unique lineup.

RB: Josh Jacobs (@IND, $5,100, 1% owned)
Jacobs has been a victim of negative game-script in each of the last two weeks and Oakland is once again favored to lose by a touchdown in Indianapolis. Plugging him into about 8-10% of your lineups this week depends on how much stock you put into this quote from Jon Gruden after last week’s loss to Minnesota:

Full quote from Jon Gruden today after I asked him if the Raiders need to get Josh Jacobs more involved in the passing game. pic.twitter.com/MKLHr7O6wg

— Jimmy Durkin (@Jimmy_Durkin) September 23, 2019

We can usually write off anything out of Gruden’s mouth as coach speak, but keeping Jacobs on the field during obvious passing situations makes too much sense. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington haven’t added value to their touches in the passing game thus far, Jacobs showed great hands and route-running ability in college at Alabama, and he was being split out wide frequently during off-season practices. If there is a chance Gruden is serious about letting his best running back play on all downs, you’ll want to get ahead of the curve on Jacobs against a Colts defense that hasn’t been tough for opponents to run on.

WR: DK Metcalf (@ARI, $4,800, 6% owned)
Metcalf leads the Seahawks with 338 air yards despite seeing nine fewer targets than Tyler Lockett this season. If we’re anticipating lower volume for Seattle’s passing game this week, it makes sense to chase Metcalf, who can do more with less, over Lockett and his inflated ownership. Big-bodied wide receivers Keenan Allen (10-8-123-1) and Julio Jones (9-8-128-1) have bullied the Cardinals’ defensive backs this year and Metcalf has a similar physical profile. From a game theory standpoint, it’s a better strategy to 3x the field on Metcalf than match your opponents with Lockett at 20%.

TE: Noah Fant (vs. JAX, $2,600, 1% owned)
Fant shouldn’t appear in more than 5% of your lineups. But his production will spike at some point this season and a home matchup against Jacksonville isn’t a bad spot. It’s taking Fant some time to acclimate to the NFL, which is normal for a rookie tight end. While he doesn’t have much production to show for it yet, at least he’s been on the field (70% snap share) and running routes (eighth-most among tight ends). The strength of Jacksonville’s cornerbacks tends to funnel passes towards the middle of the field. Travis Kelce (8-3-88-0) and Delanie Walker (9-7-64-0) both had busy days against the Jaguars this season. Considering the game environment (Denver -3 at home) and Fant’s off-the-charts athleticism, there is greater than a 1% chance he lands in a first-place lineup this week.

DST: Oakland Raiders (@IND, $2,700, 1% owned)
Oakland is another play that is not for the faint of heart but stacking Jacobs with their defense in a small handful of lineups could work out. We haven’t seen Jacoby Brissett without T.Y. Hilton yet. Hilton has been on the receiving end of 27% of Brissett’s aimed throws, 39% of Indianapolis’ air yards, and 57% of their receiving touchdowns. Assuming Hilton scratches, it’s a huge loss for Brissett and the offense in aggregate. An upset win for Oakland isn’t out of the question and would almost certainly involve a surprise showing from their defense.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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