Assessing the WR Landscape in Dynasty

Dave Kluge's Assessing the WR Landscape in Dynasty Dave Kluge Published 04/13/2023

To contextualize the wide receiver landscape in Dynasty leagues, this article will place every wide receiver into a bucket of similar players. Inside that grouping, the players will be ranked with explanations about how each archetype fits the needs of specific Dynasty rosters. Risk, perceived value, and projected production are all critical factors when assessing the current market.

This article is the third of an offseason series, after following similar methods of assessing the running back and quarterback landscapes.

As with previous articles, this is not to be served as a flat list of rankings. Instead, these groupings will help you understand how to handle each player based on other players in similar situations.

Running backs vs. Quarterbacks vs. Wide Receivers

When previously discussing running backs, the volatile nature of those assets made it difficult. Age and talent are the main factors when assessing that position, as situations and opportunities can change instantly. Evaluating before free agency posed an added challenge, but betting on age and talent alleviates the headache of guessing inconsistent workloads.

With quarterbacks, age and talent are also factors. But contracts, teammates, scheme, and public perception also play a role in evaluation. Outside of a small handful, quarterbacks are rarely guaranteed a starting job beyond one year. Beyond the ultra-premium Dynasty assets, quarterbacks are also relatively volatile in Dynasty.

Regarding prospect analysis, the football monolith best evaluates how wide receivers will translate from college to the pros. Because of that, talent, age, and historical NFL production will be the main factors in assessing this position. Contrary to popular belief, situations and quarterbacks aren't that important, mainly because those external factors often change. Young receivers with strong metrics tend to hold value, even if the production lacks. Wide receiver output is tied closer to raw talent, and early-career production indicates long-term success. The longevity of the position adds to their desirability in Dynasty trade markets.

Relative to quarterbacks and running backs, the depth at the wide receiver positions makes them one of the safer positions to invest in.

Running backs are very dependent on situations that provide volume. And the competition for starting jobs at quarterback keeps that position in a consistent churn. Wide receivers are a bit easier to project for and hold their value longer than other positions. Barring extreme circumstances, a productive wide receiver rarely sees his production disappear like a running back or quarterback could.

However, production comes with an important caveat.

Production doesn’t refer to fantasy points but to the underlying rate metrics. Our Jordan McNamara recently wrote an in-depth article about how wide receivers score. Target volume is king, and good receivers earn a healthy dose of it.

But comparing overall target volume among teams is difficult.

For instance, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers attempted 751 pass attempts in 2022 compared to the Chicago Bears' 377 attempts. The Buccaneers were three pass attempts away from doubling the Bears’ total pass volume. In addition to more volume, better accuracy from Tom Brady made for higher-quality targets. Trying to compare receivers’ season-long totals between these disparate systems is a fool’s errand.

The Buccaneers supported two wide receivers with over 125 targets each, a running back with 83 targets, and three other players with more than 50. The Chicago Bears only had two players garner over 50 targets: Cole Kmet with 69 and Darnell Mooney with 61.

Because of the disproportionate situations receivers find themselves in, it’s better to look at share rates and “routes run” metrics. They are tied closely to long-term production, taking the guessing out of the equation. Situations change quickly in the NFL. A hyper-talented wide receiver in an unfortunate situation would quickly land himself in a better ecosystem, boosting his fantasy output.

Marquise Brown is an excellent example of it working out.

Through Brown’s first three seasons in Baltimore, he averaged 6.9 targets per game. He was a first-round pick in the NFL draft and had a phenomenal profile. But he struggled to produce much in Greg Roman’s offense, which had a run-first philosophy and focused on tight ends in the passing game. His target share was in the mid-to-high-20s (borderline elite), his targets per route consistently ranked inside the top 15, and his yards per route run topped out at a whopping 1.85 in 2020. Despite that, he never finished better than WR22. He was taking a huge slice out of a tiny pie.

Then he was traded to Arizona’s Air Raid system in 2022. Stiffer target competition caused all those rate metrics to dip slightly, but a boost in offensive volume allowed him to set career highs in targets per game (8.9) and fantasy output. If we look solely at the split with a healthy Kyler Murray, Brown saw a ludicrous 10.7 targets per game and was the WR5 in fantasy scoring, a ceiling he could never have accomplished in Baltimore.

Dynasty managers pulled their hair out during Brown’s frustrating years in Baltimore. Patient and savvy managers looked at the usage rates and knew he was a changed situation away from a fantasy explosion. While his short-term outlook with an injured Murray looks bleak, there’s still reason to bet on Brown’s profile as a long-term asset.

Kyle Pitts is an example of a player ready to explode in value.

Looking at Kyle Pitts’ underlying metrics gives us a clearer picture of the type of player he is. You aren’t betting on his production. You’re investing in his elite profile.

I know. He’s not a wide receiver. But the principles still apply. His 7.6 PPR fantasy points per game last year ranked 22nd among all tight ends. However, he was #1 in targets per route run. He was #1 in air yards share. He was #2 in target share. The problem? He was 43rd in routes run. The target quality from Marcus Mariota was abysmal. The anemic Falcons offense was the problem, not Kyle Pitts.

But that situation can change quickly. What if the Falcons trade for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers? What if Desmond Ridder is better than we expect? What if they move up in the draft and land a superstar rookie quarterback? What if Kyle Pitts is traded to the Chargers, where he can be featured in an explosive offense? It's impossible to predict where or who Pitts will be playing with down the road, but his metrics show us that he is a dominant player.

It’s essential in Dynasty to focus on the players you are selecting and not their situations. Where situations can give you a short-term boost in production, betting on talent sets you up for long-term success. And, after all, that’s the point of building a Dynasty.

Let’s dive in, starting with a player who is in Tier 1 all by himself.

The Justin Jefferson Tier

Some people will scoff at Ja’Marr Chase’s omission from this top tier, but Jefferson’s start to his NFL career has been unparalleled. Through Year 3, Jefferson has amassed 476 targets, 324 receptions, 4,825 yards, and 26 touchdowns. Historically, Randy Moss (4,163) and Odell Beckham Jr (4,122) are the next-closest in yardage to Jefferson’s first three seasons. Sure, Jefferson has the added benefit of a 17-game season over the last two years. But even if we pro-rate away those two extra games, Jefferson’s 4,632 yards would be way ahead of any other receiver in the NFL archives. In 2022, Jefferson led the league in fantasy points, snaps, targets, receptions, and yards. He boasts an elite target share of 28.5% (ninth-best), draws a target on 27% of his routes (17th-best), and his 2.70 yards per route run were behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. Typically, this type of elite target earner sees his volume near the line of scrimmage. Not Jefferson. His average target depth has been above 10 yards every year of his career. He averages nearly 5.0 yards after the catch per reception. He led the league with 28 targets inside the red zone last year. There’s not much more to be said about Jefferson. He’s an athletic receiver that can separate, catch contested balls, and make plays after the catch. He’s got a path to be the best wide receiver in NFL history and deserves a spot in his own tier ahead of the competition. He’s the 1.01 in single-quarterback leagues and is only behind the elite quarterbacks in Superflex drafts. Whether rebuilding or contending, Jefferson should be a target for your Dynasty roster.

Elite WR1

Ja’Marr Chase could technically be in his micro-tier. But this bucket comprises young players who could challenge Jefferson as a single-season WR1. Of the top-eight per-game scorers in PPR last year, Jefferson, Chase, Brown, and Lamb are the only ones on the preferred side of the age curve. With target share being correlated heavily to fantasy production, it should be no surprise that all of these receivers were also top-eight in target share, each eclipsing 28.6% last year. But the main thing that sets this group apart is the perceived value insulation. Chase has already shown fantastic production throughout his short career and is tied to Joe Burrow for years to come. CeeDee Lamb may not have lived up to his draft stock immediately, but he has surpassed 120 targets and 1,100 yards in back-to-back seasons. He is expected to be a part of Dallas’s long-term plans. And remember the story about Marquise Brown in the introduction? Well, A.J. Brown saw his situation change in 2022 as well. He was traded from the lowly Titans to the Jalen Hurts-led powerhouse in Philadelphia. He set career highs across the board and is tied to the Eagles through 2026. While every Dynasty team can’t be lucky enough to have Jefferson, these are WR1s you can feel optimistic about in your lineup. If you’re rebuilding or contending, there’s never a wrong time to add an Elite WR1.

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Fringe Elite

The Fringe Elite tier is where CeeDee Lamb and A.J. Brown would have found themselves last offseason. A step forward in offensive potency for Lamb and a change of scenery for Brown vaulted them both up a tier. All of these players listed above could find themselves in similar situations. The main thing hampering all of these guys is stiff target competition. Amon-Ra St. Brown followed up his rookie-season breakout with a 27.8% target share in Year 2. Despite the uncertainty about how Jameson Williams will affect the Lions' offense, St. Brown has done enough to cement himself atop the tier this year. DeVonta Smith, playing alongside superstar A.J. Brown, built off an impressive rookie season and drew a 27% target share in 2022, 13th-best in the league. Jaylen Waddle has been productive so far, but his underlying metrics (outside the top 35 in target share and targets per route run) leave a bit to be desired. Historically, hyper-efficiency players who struggle to draw meaningful volume have volatile fantasy production. Higgins falls into a similar situation. His ability to pull targets in 2022 wasn’t great. While we can chalk some of that up to injuries, playing second fiddle behind Ja’Marr Chase limits his ceiling like Hill limits Waddle’s. But a rookie-year breakout by Higgins and a 20.8% target share with Chase in 2021 indicate he has a profile worthy of investment. DK Metcalf is the oldest of this tier, making him the most cost-effective option. His first two years of production were in-line with everyone else on this list. And even though his birthday is within one year of Smith, Waddle, and Higgins, his young age coming into the league has caused managers to tire of him. He’s already heading into Year 5 but has offered consistent production every season. While the relatively young ages of these wide receivers provide some value insulation, they’re a bit more volatile than the tier above. But we’re still talking about premium wide receivers here, and these players can fit into just about any roster construction.

Sophomore On The Cusp

Footballguys’ Alfredo Brown and Yahoo’s Matt Harmon recently joined me on The Launch Pad to discuss this tier of receivers. There isn’t a right or wrong way to rank them, and we’re splitting hairs between three uber-talented players. This group separated itself from the rest of the 2022 rookie class in Year 1. Garrett Wilson was the one who was able to put it all together on a good-ish offense. He led all rookies in fantasy points and yards on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. He did that with a carousel of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco under center, proving he is near quarterback-proof. Looking strictly at the peripherals, London has a solid argument to be the class’s WR1. He led the class in target share, targets per route run, and yards per route run. His 29.1% target share was fifth-best in the league, behind only Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase. And despite awful quarterback play, his 2.18 yards per route run was 15th among all receivers. Of course, he had minimal target volume on a low-volume offense. That leaves us with Chris Olave, who led the rookie class in yards per target and was third in the NFL in air yards share. Like London, his season was marred by sub-par quarterback play and a lackluster offense. So we’re looking at three talented players in different situations and with different skill sets. Wilson is your prototypical WR1, with a ceiling outcome of Davante Adams. Drake London is the target hog on a run-first team, with a profile you should want to invest in despite the lack of rookie-season production. And Olave is the big-play specialist who was hampered by a poor offense. All of these receivers had the chips stacked against them, and all found ways to be relevant. This tier of receivers is almost assured of rising in value.

These first 12 guys will work on just about any Dynasty roster. They have insulated value and should be acquired whether rebuilding or contending. It’s unlikely that anyone drastically craters in value during the 2023 season. This next tier, though…

Productive Veteran

This tier is self-explanatory. Everyone here is 29 or older. The top of this tier provided high-end WR1 output last year, and the bottom gave serviceable WR2 production. However, the floor can quickly fall out from any of these receivers. This time last offseason, 29-year-old Cooper Kupp was being drafted as a top-three Dynasty wide receiver. Despite being the per-game WR1 just last year, a late-season injury has caused him to fall from Dynasty managers’ graces, and he’s currently being valued around WR16. There’s almost no chance anyone in this group will see their value rise. But value isn’t the only thing that matters in Dynasty leagues. Scoring points matters, and these guys still put up points. However, they should be reserved almost exclusively for contending rosters, at least in-season. As mentioned, these receivers have no path to seeing their value rise. If you’re rebuilding and holding a player like this, wait until the season starts before selling. In the offseason, and especially around the NFL Draft, Dynasty managers inflate the value of picks. Similarly, Dynasty managers tend to boost the value of players once the season kicks off. You probably couldn’t fetch much more than a second-round rookie pick for Kupp or Adams right now. But when a contender is looking to make a push in August, flip that productive veteran for a first-round pick.

Young and Intriguing

Throughout this tier, you’ve got players who could quickly find themselves shooting up in Dynasty value. The Lions traded up to get Jameson Williams in the 2022 Draft, despite an ACL tear at the end of his college career. The little glimpses we saw as a rookie were exciting. If Williams can hit the ground running in 2023, he can be a top-five Dynasty wide receiver by the season’s midway point. Christian Watson was another player who showed elite flashes as a rookie. Eight touchdowns in a four-game stretch as a rookie are intriguing. Like Williams, if he can maintain that type of explosiveness in Year 2, he will be valued as a premium asset. George Pickens made some unbelievable plays as a rookie. And while highlights are fun, the all-important data we consume in Dynasty assessment isn’t promising. That makes him one of the riskier players in this tier, but his upside is undeniable. Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson lost battles to the injury bug as rookies but have a chance to rebrand themselves in Year 2. Injuries have also been the stories of Jerry Jeudy, Rashod Bateman, and Kadarius Toney. But one healthy and productive season could alleviate concerns. The upside for all these players is immense, and Dynasty managers are savvy. Being under 25, their value is likely to dip much. There are so many factors that go into a player hitting. A spray-and-pray approach is best here for rebuilding teams. It’s hard to predict precisely which player will put it all together, but all have a chance to be premiere receivers.

Buy On The Wrong Side Of 25

As soon as a wide receiver turns 25, a buy window opens. The most prominent blind spots in most Dynasty managers’ processes are youth and upside (see Young and Intriguing tier). Sure, it’s great to draft that guy in the second round of your rookie draft that becomes an elite WR1, but that’s pretty rare. Most Dynasty managers are so busy looking for the next big thing that they forget about the relatively young and productive pieces already out there. Every player on this list has already surpassed age 25, and you can likely flip them for less talented and more youthful players because of it. Brandon Aiyuk has been in a crowded offense, and his production has been inconsistent. D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin have yet to play any stretch of meaningful football with a good quarterback. Michael Pittman Jr has displayed a safe floor but a low ceiling. Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown, and Diontae Johnson were Dynasty darlings a few years ago, but the imminent breakout never happened, and the markets have since soured. Christian Kirk is a risky asset in his second year with Jacksonville, but he showed abilities as a low-end WR1 last year. The chances that a player in this tier elevates themselves into the top tier are slim. But we’re still looking at talented wide receivers who will give you production well above replacement levels. Age is a factor inside this tier. McLaurin is the most likely to see his value crater, while Aiyuk is probably insulated for a few more seasons. These players should be analyzed individually, but they are all expected to see their production outperform their market value. While these 25-plus receivers are probably best on contending rosters, their value insulation can make them work on any Dynasty team.

High-Upside Rookie

I won’t spend too much time dissecting rookies in this article. These are the wide receivers who most often are mocked in the first round of the NFL Draft. Surprises happen every year. Players slide, and teams reach. These four will likely find paths to success as rookies but are far from sure things. Return to Footballguys after the NFL Draft as we discuss landing spots and 2023 projections.

Risky Rookie

Again, landing spots and draft capital will be factored into rookie wide receiver analysis. It’s difficult to gauge precisely where these players land in Dynasty rankings. In the meantime, download our free Rookie Draft Guide to brush up on this year’s prospects.

Sitting atop the age curve WR/RB hybrids who require elite efficiency to be productive in fantasy but are stuck on a team with intense touch competition and quarterback uncertainty

Looking at the Dynasty landscape, I’m not sure there’s a more difficult player to assign value to than Deebo Samuel. He had an injury-ridden start to his career, followed by a 21.2-point-per-game explosion in 2021 before crashing back to Earth in 2022 with 13 points per game. His 2021 season was marked by hyper-efficiency. He averaged a ludicrous 18.2 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per rushing attempt, scoring a touchdown in over 10% of his touches. His efficiency plummeted after 2021, but he is still valued as a top-24 wide receiver in Dynasty. The fact is, Samuel has been a WR3 or Flex option for three of his four years in the league. And now, Christian McCaffrey is there to absorb the high-value touches in the red zone. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are capable weapons in the passing game that limit Samuel’s ability to garner an elite target share. One season with unprecedented efficiency pushed him way up draft boards, and the market has not adjusted since. If you can flip Samuel for the value of a top-24 Dynasty wide receiver, it’s best to do that now rather than get stuck holding the bag.

Showing Signs Of Decline

If you blink, you might miss a guy fall from the Productive Veteran tier to Showing Signs Of Decline. It happens in all sports and relatively quickly in football. Let’s not forget that we’re just a few years away from Julio Jones and Antonio Brown leading all wide receivers in draft position. Admittedly, Calvin Ridley’s inclusion on this list may be unfair. But he’s going into his 29-year-old season on a new team with stiff target competition. Being two years removed from football makes him a risky asset, regardless of his possible ceiling. If he gets off to a slow start or struggles to usurp Christian Kirk, he’ll be a falling knife. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have been the engine that powered the Chargers' passing game for years, but both are getting up there in age and struggling to stay healthy. Mike Evans appeared to have lost a step last year and is about to turn 30. Brandin Cooks finds himself on a new team with no path to establish himself as the WR1. Odell Beckham Jrand Michael Thomas still have name value, but injuries have piled up late in their careers. There might be a bit of juice to squeeze in this tier. But they should only be acquired by contending teams, and hopefully at a discount.

Veteran WR3

This is the tier of wide receivers that no one wants. But they still have value on Dynasty rosters. Being so close to the NFL Draft, these are the guys you can acquire for a third-round pick. You don’t want to start them. But in deep leagues, they’ll still produce. They don’t have youth on their side anymore, which makes them a value on the market. While other Dynasty managers are looking at the tiers below for a hopeful lotto ticket, it makes sense to roster guys you can confidently start during byes and injuries. As stated earlier, the biggest blind spots in Dynasty analysis are youth and upside. No one in this tier has either. But they’re moderately productive and will give you a consistent floor for the next year or so. These players make for sneaky and cheap additions for contending teams.

My Guys

At this point, we’re in the weeds. There’s no such thing as a sure thing here, and anyone this far down the ranks is unlikely to ever end up as an elite asset. But Dynasty and fantasy football are supposed to be fun. Cheering for guys you like is fun. Having guys you want to root for on your teams is essential. Your guys could look different from my guys, who will look different from Joe’s. These should be young-ish receivers who you have faith in. Anyone under 25 who doesn’t fall into this bucket should be moved to the next one, and you should Sell While They Still Have Value (at least by your approximation). At this point, everyone’s player valuations are different. This is where you’re most likely to make deals with your leaguemates. Maybe you love Gabe Davis and Chase Claypool and think Nico Collins and Joshua Palmer are overrated. Well, join a league with me, and let’s trade!

Sell While They Still Have Value

Again, this tier and the one above are entirely subjective. These players and Your Guys are interchangeable based on personal preference. But this is where most trade activity in your Dynasty leagues will happen. These players probably aren’t garnering much attention as stand-alone assets, but they’re great players to target as throw-ins for more significant trades. For people in many Dynasty leagues, keeping your player exposure thin towards the top of the value chart is important. But having 100% exposure to a guy like Donovan Peoples-Jones probably won’t hurt you if he doesn’t pan out. If you’re stuck holding anyone under 26 in the WR60+ range and not entirely sold on their potential, try and salvage whatever value you can. Surely, someone in your league will still have faith.

Bargain Bin Veterans

You’re not moving heaven and earth to acquire these players, but this is the final tier of 25-plus vets that should be entertained as rosterable. They’re all system-dependent and could end up mid-season cuts from your roster. But there’s enough reason to believe these guys could end up in a functional role over the next few years. Like the other tiers down here, they’re a bit subjective. You have the liberty to move these receivers into a different bucket as you perceive fit. Different talent evaluations are necessary to have a healthy trade market. Don’t be afraid to move the consensus WR80 for your WR65. At the end of the day, these are all low-risk, low-reward assets.

Cheap Enough To Assume The Minimal Risk

Everyone on this list is outside of the Footballguys top-90 wide receivers. These guys are likely available on your waiver wire, all relatively young, and all have shown enough that makes them moderately intriguing. You’re probably better off stashing depth at other positions, but this tier is for the leagues with 16-plus teams or four or more wide receiver slots. You cut these guys as soon as a viable running back pops up on the waiver wire.

Roster Cloggers

You know the names. These wide receivers all had their moments in years past or gave reason to inspire hope. At this point, you’re hoping to capture lightning in a bottle. Much like the Sell While They Still Have Value tier, this is the group you should be trying to salvage for any possible return. You will almost assuredly get more use from an injury-away running back or a backup quarterback than anyone in this bucket. These players are still rostered on plenty of Dynasty rosters, but they shouldn’t be.

Honestly, anyone beyond here (and probably the last 20 names or so) probably doesn’t belong on a Dynasty roster. Some late-round rookies could always surprise us. Remember, Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown were Day 3 picks! But the wide receiver position is one we are best at projecting. That doesn’t mean we get it all right, but it’s a position worth investing in at the top of the value chart.

It’s inadvisable to roster more than three wide receivers you can start in any given week. Let’s say you have three wide receiver slots and two flexes. Eight wide receivers or fewer in that format would be preferred. It’s best to load your bench spots up with backup running backs and quarterbacks, who are far more likely to spike in value. If a team’s WR1 does down, targets will likely be fanned out among the remaining starters. If a team’s RB1 falls, a backup will often step tight into that workload. Similarly, any starting QB with a pulse is worth an active roster spot in Dynasty leagues.

The longevity and consistency of the wide receiver position make them one that you want to be comfortable with on your rosters. You will rarely regret trading for a top-12 Dynasty wide receiver. And if the young and ascending one you acquire doesn’t immediately produce, they will likely retain some value on the trade market. This makes wide receivers the most crucial position to have a sound process for in your Dynasty analysis.

Our Christian Williams just did a deep dive on the archetype of a top-12 wide receiver. If you’re looking to find out what these players historically look like and who best fits the mold as a future WR1, check that out here.

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