After Assessing The Running Back Landscape in Dynasty, looking at quarterbacks through the same lens will be a good exercise. Where talent and age are the main factors in evaluating the running back positions, assessing quarterbacks requires much more nuance. Age and talent certainly play a factor, but contracts, teammates, public perception, play style, and coaching also hold weight.
In this article, I will place fantasy quarterbacks into buckets and rank within. This article isn’t made to act as a flat list of rankings but rather to group archetypes with ranging values in each tier. Some players may qualify for multiple buckets, but I will pick the one that best suits them. Trey Lance, for instance, falls into the Toolsy and Youngish bucket at the moment. A breakout 2023 season could vault him into the Fringe Elite tier just as easily as a stumble could cause him to be Young and Probably Nothing.
As for rookies in the 2023 rookie quarterback class, five names sit above the rest:
Others may surprise us with first-round draft capital, but these are the only rookie quarterbacks we can project to land in potentially relevant roles before the NFL Draft. For the sake of this article, no other rookie quarterbacks will be discussed.
There likely won’t be many surprises early in this article as the tiers and rankings are pretty standard across most fantasy football sites and analysts. But with the growth of Superflex leagues, it’s essential to know how to value some lesser-known quarterbacks. A strong process will help you decide who to target and sell in your dynasty leagues.
Let’s dive in, starting with the crème de la crème of dynasty quarterbacks.
THE BLUE CHIPS
This group is mildly subjective. Some analysts, like our own Jordan McNamara, argue that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II sit alone in the top tier. And while it’s hard to push against that, I group these guys together because they are worth more than any other dynasty asset. If you partake in a Superflex dynasty startup draft this offseason, these four will be off the board before people start looking at different positions. Mahomes is the oldest of the bunch and still just 28. These quarterbacks are looking at a decade-plus of NFL success ahead of them, barring devastating injury. Trade negotiations for this tier don’t start unless you get multiple elite assets in return. Whether rebuilding or contending, you want these players on your squad. All have shown extended periods of elite production. Although Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts are still on their rookie deals, Super Bowl appearances for each have rallied the organizations and fanbases behind them, and their extensions should be merely a formality. These quarterbacks are as close to untouchable as a dynasty asset can be and the type of player you build your roster around.
FRINGE ELITE
Justin Herbert is tough to rank. Admittedly, he’s very close to The Blue Chips. But it’s tough to ignore his lack of production last year. Assuming his rib cartilage injury was the cause for his struggles and he returns to his 2021 form this season, he’ll quickly find himself back in Tier 1. But he is slipping to the 1.05-1.07 range in dynasty startups, and public perception plays a role in these rankings. Lamar Jackson has shown immense upside, but his injury history and lack of a long-term contract keep him outside the top tier. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields took enormous strides in their sophomore campaigns, but inconsistency caps their value. Looking through a dynasty lens, we’re splitting hairs. These quarterbacks will likely maintain starting jobs for years to come. And being 26 or younger, all are on the proper side of the age curve. Like the first tier, these quarterbacks will fit on a contending or rebuilding roster. There isn’t too much volatility here; you probably won’t regret acquiring them.
BACK-END QB1S
These are near-elite assets for now but have a bit more risk tied to them than the eight quarterbacks listed above. You aren’t selling or buying low, but question marks are linked to each player in this bucket. Kyler Murray is locked up on a long-term deal, but injuries in back-to-back seasons and a recent ACL tear have lowered his dynasty value. There’s hope that Jonathan Gannon can inject some explosiveness into this offense. But a disappointing Kliff Kingsbury tenure may have been Murray’s fault as much as Kingsbury’s. Just a few years ago, you could etch Deshaun Watson’s name in stone for a top-five fantasy quarterback finish. But now, at age 28, and after two years off, he hasn’t looked like himself. A bounce-back in 2023 could vault him up to The Blue Chips, but another disastrous campaign could send him into a free fall. Tua Tagovailoa has compiled absurd numbers when healthy and playing under Mike McDaniel. However, that’s been a rare sighting. Concussions and a small sample size leave dynasty managers in a polarizing discussion surrounding the undersized lefty. The risks associated with each quarterback keep them in the back-end QB1 discussion. These guys are volatile but possess league-winning upside. Murray, Watson, and Tagovailoa are excellent targets for rebuilding squads looking to hit a home run, and they can all see huge booms to their value if the chips fall right in 2023.
QB2 VETERANS
Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr all fall between the ages of 28 and 31. That’s when things get dicey for quarterbacks, and less-than-elite guys can quickly find themselves in a relief role. Prescott still has a couple of years left on his massive extension. But it’s uncertain whether Dallas will retain him beyond that or how he’ll fare in a new environment. Goff may get an extension from Detroit, but rumors about trading for Lamar Jackson or drafting a quarterback leave dynasty managers uneasy. Carr could see a late-career resurgence in New Orleans with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. But after a disappointing season on a loaded Raiders squad, it’s natural to question his upside. Add these quarterbacks to your rebuilding squads if you buy into any of the positive narratives. The hope that they gain value is valid, albeit risky. These guys work best for contending squads but could still add a few years to their relevance. Their value has room to grow despite their ages.
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SNIFF TEST
You know that soon-to-be-expired section at your grocery store? Well, you’re looking at it. These quarterbacks are typically reserved for contending rosters. All 34 or older, these quarterbacks risk stepping on the field for the last time every time they lace up their cleats. Russell Wilson has the potential to bounce back with Sean Payton. And his iron-clad contract keeps him atop this tier. But there’s a reasonable fear that he is tumbling down the backside of the age cliff. Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford may have a few years left but are already showing signs of decline. Aaron Rodgers may opt for retirement. These are hazardous assets, but they also have the chance to be plug-and-play in your Superflex spot for the next few seasons. If you’re a contender, peruse your league’s rosters and see if any rebuilders are stashing someone from this tier. They can likely be had cheaply and still contribute to your lineup.
TOOLSY AND YOUNGISH
This tier is not for risk-averse dynasty managers. All of these guys possess massive ceilings. They also run the risk of cratering in value. Remember, this isn’t a flat list of rankings. Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, and Brock Purdy shouldn’t be ranked ahead of some of the guys in the buckets below, but their upside lumps them in with this grouping. Love is raw, and we haven’t seen much. But a former first-round pick set to start for a team with an impressive history of developing quarterbacks shouldn’t be ignored. Darnold sits low in this tier, but he’s shown some flashes throughout his career, and we’ve yet to see him on anything besides a bottom-of-the-barrel offense. Purdy looked excellent in Kyle Shanahan’s system. Whether that was due to his coach’s scheme or his talent is yet to be determined, but he’s worth a stash in all formats. And although Pickett struggled as a rookie, acquiring him is just as much of an investment in Mike Tomlin as it is in the young quarterback. Pittsburgh is a fantastic ecosystem for quarterbacks, and Pickett showcased some abilities as a rusher in college. Daniel Jones and Trey Lance are the most expensive, but understandably so. They have the highest ceilings and the closest semblance to job security. Every quarterback in this tier should be taken on a case-by-case basis but can work on contending or rebuilding squads.
PRO-READY ROOKIES
Draft capital and landing spot will help us get a clearer picture of these quarterbacks. But with Carolina and Houston sitting atop the NFL Draft, those are the most likely landing spots for the top prospects. Carolina threw a colossal package to Chicago to move up to No. 1, signaling their intent to draft the quarterback of their future. After the Davis Mills experiment proved a failure, Houston is expected to take whoever is standing between these two. While not the best landing spots, each quarterback has the chance to be a Week 1 starter. Rookie quarterbacks are volatile assets in dynasty leagues. You may be securing a guy you can rely on for the next five-plus seasons, but we’ve also seen plenty of top picks flame out in a matter of years. Concerns about Stroud’s processing ability and Young’s size are valid, but the two are the safest of the 2023 rookie class.
UPSIDE ROOKIES
The term “upside” can leave a glaring blind spot in dynasty managers’ analysis. Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker have the prototypical build for today’s NFL: stout frames, massive arms, and quick legs. Looking at the recent success of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields can cause dynasty managers to salivate at the potential. But Richardson, Levis, and Hooker each have significant flaws in their game that we shouldn’t ignore. These quarterbacks make for the riskiest investment in dynasty leagues. Despite not having every piece of the puzzle, Richardson and Levis are already going top-five in rookie drafts. If either quarterback slides in the NFL Draft (remember Malik Willis in 2022?), their value will crater overnight. The hope is that these toolsy quarterbacks are drafted by a team with a creative head coach and an arsenal of weapons that will help them develop. But that isn’t always the case. Considering the cost of acquiring these quarterbacks already, dynasty managers are betting on a best-case scenario. The upside is there, but at a price that could be detrimental. If picking 1.04-1.05 in a pre-NFL Draft rookie dynasty draft, it might be best to trade back and let someone else absorb the risk. Hooker’s cost in the second round wouldn’t be as damaging, and he makes a reasonable selection.
A STARTER… FOR NOW
The most exciting thing about this tier of quarterbacks is the lack of competition on their depth charts. There’s a ten-year age difference between Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill, but both are in a similar situation. They are currently their team's QB1, but rumblings about trades and releases have them on thin ice. Any NFL starter with a pulse will be on a roster in a Superflex league. A bottom-tier starting quarterback will typically outscore your WR5 or WR6, who you’re looking at beyond starting wide receivers and flexes. That alone makes Tannehill and Jones worth rostering and talking about. But they can quickly find themselves out of work and near worthless in dynasty leagues. Geno Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo each signed new contracts this offseason. But both contracts allow the team to exercise out options after 2023. With Seattle and Las Vegas sitting with high picks in this year’s Draft, we could quickly see their windows as starters slam shut. And Baker Mayfield signed a contract indicative of a backup but should beat out Kyle Trask in a camp battle. Like some other tiers, every situation should be looked at on a case-by-case basis. If you believe in Mac Jones’ talent, try to trade for him! The acquisition cost for these quarterbacks is low enough that a value fallout won’t be too detrimental to your team. But these guys are mostly reserved for dynasty teams in contention.
BRIDGE
Now we’re getting to the veteran stashes that could find themselves in a part-time role over the next few years. Hardly enough to get excited about, but still worth a roster spot in Superflex leagues. Jacoby Brissett has played admirably at every stop along his career and could challenge Sam Howell for a starting gig in Washington this year. Andy Dalton is the presumed starter but could see his role usurped from this year’s first overall pick before the season kicks off. Jameis Winston is currently playing backup to Derek Carr but is still just 29 years old and could have another chance as a starter. Although Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota looked abysmal last year, being on the right side of 30 and having shown success in the past might be enough for another team to take a flyer on them. Most dynasty rosters are deep. These guys are nothing more than a QB3 or QB4 stash from which you’ll hope to get a few playable weeks. But they certainly shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire.
YOUNG AND MAYBE SOMETHING
These are the $1 scratch-offs of dynasty leagues. They won’t cost you much and probably won’t do much either. But maybe you can win something fun! We haven’t seen much from most of these quarterbacks. But they’re still young and intriguing enough to be worth a roster spot in deeper leagues. There’s a faint line between this and the Young and Probably Nothing tier. That line is entirely subjective, as are the ranks. These are the handful I’m holding a semblance of hope for while simultaneously not expecting much from. Your selection of players might look a bit different than this one.
YOUNG AND PROBABLY NOTHING
Roster cloggers come in all shapes and sizes, which is what this grouping comprises. As stated above, the differentiation between these two tiers is subjective. But on-field play and team moves have designated this bunch of quarterbacks as the guys that likely won’t have a fantasy impact going forward. At the bottom of the group, you probably aren’t getting much return for Sam Ehlinger of Matt Corral. But if you can flip Zach Wilson or Davis Mills for anything, it’s best to accrue some value before they’re inevitably dropped from your rosters. All of these quarterbacks are 25 or under, and at least one manager in your league is probably still grasping their pre-Draft player takes.
PERENNIAL BACKUPS
- Gardner Minshew
- Mitch Trubisky
- Drew Lock
- Mike White
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Nick Foles
- Taylor Heinicke
- Cooper Rush
- P.J. Walker
- Tyrod Taylor
- Case Keenum
- Joshua Dobbs
- Jarrett Stidham
- Nick Mullens
Not good enough to start Week 1. Just good enough to hang around on an NFL roster and get the occasional spot start. These are guys whose value is almost tied entirely to their current roster. Gardner Minshew probably isn't the long-term answer for Indianapolis. But a great offensive line, run game, and Michael Pittman give him QB1 upside in good matchups. Mitch Trubisky, despite his flaws as a passer, will benefit from throwing to Diontae Johnson and George Pickens in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Case Keenum will be the third option on a team barren of high-end talent in Houston. The guys near the top of this tier are a twisted ankle away from a weekly QB2 ranking. The guys at the bottom would need a new team to find any fantasy relevance and can stay on your waiver wire. Although handcuffing running backs is a less-than-optimal strategy, handcuffing your quarterbacks makes more sense, given the positional scarcity. These guys often travel from team to team, but it doesn’t hurt to snag your QB1’s backup, especially if they’re on a loaded offense.
As the prevalence of Superflex spots starts to take over dynasty leagues, it’s crucial to understand archetypes and trends in the quarterback landscape. Having two elite options is a luxury that most dynasty managers never experience. But knowing how your team is situated and what quarterbacks work best with each build will help you find success.
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