After Assessing The Running Back Landscape in Dynasty, looking at quarterbacks through the same lens will be a good exercise. Where talent and age are the main factors in evaluating the running back positions, assessing quarterbacks requires much more nuance. Age and talent certainly play a factor, but contracts, teammates, public perception, play style, and coaching also hold weight.
In this article, I will place fantasy quarterbacks into buckets and rank within. This article isn’t made to act as a flat list of rankings but rather to group archetypes with ranging values in each tier. Some players may qualify for multiple buckets, but I will pick the one that best suits them. Trey Lance, for instance, falls into the Toolsy and Youngish bucket at the moment. A breakout 2023 season could vault him into the Fringe Elite tier just as easily as a stumble could cause him to be Young and Probably Nothing.
As for rookies in the 2023 rookie quarterback class, five names sit above the rest:
Others may surprise us with first-round draft capital, but these are the only rookie quarterbacks we can project to land in potentially relevant roles before the NFL Draft. For the sake of this article, no other rookie quarterbacks will be discussed.
There likely won’t be many surprises early in this article as the tiers and rankings are pretty standard across most fantasy football sites and analysts. But with the growth of Superflex leagues, it’s essential to know how to value some lesser-known quarterbacks. A strong process will help you decide who to target and sell in your dynasty leagues.
Let’s dive in, starting with the crème de la crème of dynasty quarterbacks.
THE BLUE CHIPS
This group is mildly subjective. Some analysts, like our own Jordan McNamara, argue that Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II sit alone in the top tier. And while it’s hard to push against that, I group these guys together because they are worth more than any other dynasty asset. If you partake in a Superflex dynasty startup draft this offseason, these four will be off the board before people start looking at different positions. Mahomes is the oldest of the bunch and still just 28. These quarterbacks are looking at a decade-plus of NFL success ahead of them, barring devastating injury. Trade negotiations for this tier don’t start unless you get multiple elite assets in return. Whether rebuilding or contending, you want these players on your squad. All have shown extended periods of elite production. Although Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts are still on their rookie deals, Super Bowl appearances for each have rallied the organizations and fanbases behind them, and their extensions should be merely a formality. These quarterbacks are as close to untouchable as a dynasty asset can be and the type of player you build your roster around.
FRINGE ELITE
Justin Herbert is tough to rank. Admittedly, he’s very close to The Blue Chips. But it’s tough to ignore his lack of production last year. Assuming his rib cartilage injury was the cause for his struggles and he returns to his 2021 form this season, he’ll quickly find himself back in Tier 1. But he is slipping to the 1.05-1.07 range in dynasty startups, and public perception plays a role in these rankings. Lamar Jackson has shown immense upside, but his injury history and lack of a long-term contract keep him outside the top tier. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields took enormous strides in their sophomore campaigns, but inconsistency caps their value. Looking through a dynasty lens, we’re splitting hairs. These quarterbacks will likely maintain starting jobs for years to come. And being 26 or younger, all are on the proper side of the age curve. Like the first tier, these quarterbacks will fit on a contending or rebuilding roster. There isn’t too much volatility here; you probably won’t regret acquiring them.
BACK-END QB1S
These are near-elite assets for now but have a bit more risk tied to them than the eight quarterbacks listed above. You aren’t selling or buying low, but question marks are linked to each player in this bucket. Kyler Murray is locked up on a long-term deal, but injuries in back-to-back seasons and a recent ACL tear have lowered his dynasty value. There’s hope that Jonathan Gannon can inject some explosiveness into this offense. But a disappointing Kliff Kingsbury tenure may have been Murray’s fault as much as Kingsbury’s. Just a few years ago, you could etch Deshaun Watson’s name in stone for a top-five fantasy quarterback finish. But now, at age 28, and after two years off, he hasn’t looked like himself. A bounce-back in 2023 could vault him up to The Blue Chips, but another disastrous campaign could send him into a free fall. Tua Tagovailoa has compiled absurd numbers when healthy and playing under Mike McDaniel. However, that’s been a rare sighting. Concussions and a small sample size leave dynasty managers in a polarizing discussion surrounding the undersized lefty. The risks associated with each quarterback keep them in the back-end QB1 discussion. These guys are volatile but possess league-winning upside. Murray, Watson, and Tagovailoa are excellent targets for rebuilding squads looking to hit a home run, and they can all see huge booms to their value if the chips fall right in 2023.
QB2 VETERANS
Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr all fall between the ages of 28 and 31. That’s when things get dicey for quarterbacks, and less-than-elite guys can quickly find themselves in a relief role. Prescott still has a couple of years left on his massive extension. But it’s uncertain whether Dallas will retain him beyond that or how he’ll fare in a new environment. Goff may get an extension from Detroit, but rumors about trading for Lamar Jackson or drafting a quarterback leave dynasty managers uneasy. Carr could see a late-career resurgence in New Orleans with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. But after a disappointing season on a loaded Raiders squad, it’s natural to question his upside. Add these quarterbacks to your rebuilding squads if you buy into any of the positive narratives. The hope that they gain value is valid, albeit risky. These guys work best for contending squads but could still add a few years to their relevance. Their value has room to grow despite their ages.
Continue reading this content with a ELITE subscription.
An ELITE subscription is required to access content for Dynasty leagues. If this league is not a Dynasty league, you can edit your leagues here.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE