Assessing the RB Landscape in Dynasty

Dave Kluge's Assessing the RB Landscape in Dynasty Dave Kluge Published 03/08/2023

It isn’t an overstatement to say that the 2023 offseason will ignite one of the wildest running back markets in NFL history. Running backs are the most volatile asset in Dynasty fantasy football leagues, and this offseason's free agency class, NFL Draft, and potential cap casualties will only stroke the flames. While a lot of Dynasty managers have taken a "Do not touch" approach in regard to running backs this offseason, having a sound process could help you accrue roster value.

When pontificating about the current running back landscape, it’s important to take an agnostic approach. Whatever role you think exists today could be irrelevant tomorrow. I’ll lean on two idioms in my attempt to group and assess the running back position right now.

“Chaos is a ladder.”
“Cream rises to the top.”

When shuffling players around backfields, talent will prevail. Roles and production will be easier to project closer to Week 1. But for now, only two things matter: age and talent.

Let's start by looking at free agency. This class is extremely deep and headlined by some of the best young running backs in the league.

Free Agents

The franchise tags have impaired the overall value of the running back class, but it still makes a highly formidable and deep group.

In addition to the list of running backs above, plenty of clunky contracts tied to veterans could be wiped off the books. Although the Buccaneers have already said Leonard Fournette will be a cap casualty, there are others to watch.

Potential Cap Casualties

Throwing these running backs into the free agency pool will only increase potential mayhem.

And we haven’t talked about rookies yet! We’ll keep them out of this article. But on April 29th, we’ll have to adjust again. There is an exciting new group of running backs joining the league.

Top Rookies

All of these guys have the chops to carve out immediate roles in NFL backfields, and some will siphon an immediate three-down gig.

In this article, I’ll place players into buckets and rank them inside those groupings. These aren’t meant to be a flat list of rankings, but rather groups of archetypes with different player values within.

Let’s start with the most elite group, the youngest and most talented.

1. Blue Chips

You can split this into two tiers based on preferences. Some Dynasty managers will knock Taylor and Walker for their lack of pass-catching. Others will want to see more consistency from Etienne. And, of course, with Hall coming off of a rookie-year ACL tear, some managers have recovery concerns. But this tier is made exclusively of running backs under 25 with RB1 in their range of outcomes. Barring injury, all four of these backs are guys you can plug into your lineup without thinking twice, hopefully for the next three-plus years. These players are all valued somewhere between rookie 1.02-1.05. Don’t sell low on these guys, even if you’re rebuilding.

2. Second-Contract Bellcows

Age is the only thing separating these running backs from the group above. All of these backs have produced elite RB1 seasons in their careers. But being 25 or older gives them a shorter shelf life than the Tier 1 guys. These are the backs that contending teams should target and rebuilding teams should sell. Although outliers like Adrian Peterson and Derrick Henry have produced well into their 20s, history shows that production turns down after age 25. Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler’s 2022 campaigns marked the first time any running backs above the age of 26 had a top-five fantasy season since LeSean McCoy in 2016. These guys may provide elite seasons for years to come, but they will probably trend downward in the next few years. We’re still talking about Dynasty RB1s here. While they’re still valuable assets, they should be reserved for teams in contention.

3. Young and Talented, But...

There is a relatively quick fall-off after the top-eight, and now we’re staring at volatile assets. These players have shown enough to warrant the risk of acquiring them. But the bottom can quickly fall out from their value. Just last year, guys like Travis Etienne and Josh Jacobs would have been in the Young and Talented, But... tier. However, Antonio Gibson and Elijah Mitchell also would have been grouped here before falling down the ranks. Swift and Harris have eye-popping prospect profiles, but inconsistent production and injuries keep them from being Tier 1 backs. Williams and Dobbins each suffered brutal knee injuries. While a full recovery would be enough to move them up, Dynasty managers must see it first. Stevenson and Pollard have posted absurd efficiency metrics throughout their short careers, but the lack of draft capital makes Dynasty managers wonder if the production is an apparition. These players all have a wide range of outcomes. Any could find themselves in the Blue Chip or Intriguing Upside tier a year from now.

4. Wrong Side of the Age Curve

This tier is small, and it’s difficult to gauge the value of these backs in Dynasty leagues. All are 27 or older, beyond when we can expect elite output. Managers will laugh at you for putting an older back on the trade block. But all three backs finished inside the top half of RB1s just last year. From a value standpoint, you can fold these backs into the Young and Talented, But... tier. But acquiring Ekeler, Chubb, or Henry should only be done by actively contending teams. While you could be receiving next year’s overall RB1, these backs can just as easily fall off the age cliff. Much like the previous tier, these are also highly volatile assets. The difference is that the high-end range of outcomes doesn’t have the expected longevity of hitting on a younger back.

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5. Intriguing Upside

“Upside” is a dangerous word that blinds Dynasty managers. These guys are pretty young. They’ve all flashed. Pierce, White, Pacheco, Akers, Allgeier, and Robinson all look like they currently have a lead job. But the upcoming free agency frenzy could swiftly knock them into a relief role. Dillon, Herbert, Cook, and Gibson have looked good as complementary pieces, but will they ever find a path to a lead role? The reality is that these guys will probably have bursts of fantasy relevance in between lulls. However, the youth and talent combination is intriguing enough to take a chance in Dynasty leagues. Even in shared backfields, injured teammates will set up weeks where you can start these backs with confidence. And you could strike gold here. Maybe White, Pacheco, or Akers will take a huge step forward and win the trust of their coaches. But these guys are likely situational RB2s and flex options for the next few years.

6. Showing Signs of Decline

There’s a wide gap in value between the top and bottom of this tier. What groups them together is that their perceived value is worth more than their expected output. Alternatively, you can call this The Name Value tier. In the introduction, I pegged a few of these guys as potential cap casualties. As these backs barrel down the backside of the age curve, they’ll find themselves in less valuable fantasy roles. It happens quickly with running backs, and it’s better to get out early than to get stuck holding the bag. Every back on this list is starting to show signs of wear and tear and could leave the teams that made them valuable. Savvy managers probably aren’t interested in acquiring these guys. If you’re in a league with people who will only offer up a second-round rookie pick for Cook or Mixon, you’re probably better off holding. But if you can leverage the name value to flip any of these assets for a future first, do it.

7. The 2023 Free Agents

While these aren’t all 2023 free agents, this group is made of intriguing players who are a signature away from booming or plummeting in value. Given what we’ve seen over their careers, Miles Sanders is a more valuable asset than Rashaad Penny. But imagine what happens if Pete Carroll wants to add a complementary piece to Ken Walker and Sanders signs with Seattle. In this hypothetical scenario, Rashaad Penny signs with Miami as their presumed lead back. You’d probably prefer Penny in fantasy, right? It is so hard to predict where these players will land. Most Dynasty managers expect Sanders and Montgomery to land a lead job somewhere, and because of that, they will cost you in trades. I prefer to target the cheaper guys; Harris, Foreman, Penny, and Mattison. These backs are all relatively young and could land in a desirable spot like Miami, Atlanta, Buffalo, or Philadelphia. The reality is that all of these guys likely land in some sort of timeshare. Like the Intriguing Upside tier, though, that puts them an injury away from fantasy relevance.

8. Young and Sellable

I mentioned earlier how Dynasty managers are often blinded by upside. If upside is the biggest blind spot in Dynasty analysis, youth is a close second. Everyone in this group is young, and every Dynasty league has at least one manager still holding onto their preconceived prospect analysis. We’ve seen enough from these players to know they’ll probably never be significant contributors on a football field. But if you can flip them for a wide receiver with weekly flex appeal or a rookie pick near the 2/3 turn, it’s better to get out from underneath them before they lose all value. Sure, you might miss out on a handful of weeks from these guys in the future, but they are more likely to become roster cloggers. If you're a firm believer in the player talent here, it doesn't hurt to keep them stashed. They could always find a path to opportunity for a period. But trading away players in this tier is rarely followed by regret.

9. Old and Buyable

This isn’t a pretty tier of guys. But they’ll likely give you similar or better production than the tier above and can be had for a fraction of the cost. Dynasty managers are constantly looking to get younger. And while these guys might give you nothing in 2023, they can probably be had for a fourth-round pick, which is just as likely to provide you with nothing. Proven NFL vets are boring in Dynasty but make for great options to play through bye weeks and injuries.

That’s basically it for relevant Dynasty running backs. But it’s essential to have that final tier of Your Guys.

10. Your Guys

This is the last tier of running backs; yours could look completely different than mine. These are the guys that you just like for no real reason. They might be old (J.D. McKissic). They might be stuck in a special teams role (Kene Nwangwu). They might have shown us time and time again that they probably aren’t that good at football (Ronald Jones II). But these are the guys you like and want on your roster. Remember, playing fantasy football is supposed to be fun. Rostering and cheering for players you like is fun. Watching a guy you’ve stashed for years have a boom game is fun. It might be +EV to flip Ty Chandler for Jerome Ford. But if you like Chandler, keep him! They each have a minuscule chance of ever hitting your fantasy lineup. At the end of your benches, just stash the guys you like. Because at the end of the day, it probably doesn’t matter.

This time of year is tough. Free agency and the NFL Draft are about to uproot everything we thought we knew about the running back landscape. But trusting in talent should help you navigate through this chaotic offseason.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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