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Editor's Note: Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) is a three-part series. We recommend reading them in this order:
1. Introduction
2. Rushing Attempts
3. Passing Attempts
Building your dynasty teams around wide receivers creates a foundation for the future. The perceived shelf life of the position outlasts the belief in running backs. Tight ends are important, so long as you have one of the top options. Travis Kelce has nine straight seasons over 800 yards and seven straight seasons over 1,000 yards. Running backs are involved in the passing game, too.
This article will be longer due to providing discourse about wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. This article will note how the trends apply to 2023 and the foreseeable future. If you are reading this article in 2031, there are still nuggets of information to take in and apply.
Introduction
Below is a visual representation of passing attempts per season:
We can see an increasing trend since 1985. It was not until the late 2000s did we see passing attempts become more prevalent.
The increase in passing attempts creates more opportunities for the receiving weapons to find production. This information is at face value; this creates more potential from your receiving weapons.
NFL Receptions
There will be variables influencing changes in an offensive scheme during a season. The major one is injuries. An injury to a quarterback will vastly change the scheme. The entire offense is built around the quarterback and what they can or cannot do. I think so, right? This makes sense.
An injury to a running back may not be as devastating as a change. We saw Mike Davis take over for Christian McCaffrey's season-ending injury and finish as an RB1 (2020). He was unable to rise to McCaffrey's standards (100+ receptions), but he was able to get the job done (59). I think you can see the picture I am trying to paint. Hopefully, we can agree tight ends and wide receivers are similar in regards.
Running Back Receptions
When thinking about pass-catching specialists, McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara likely jump to mind. Both entered the league in 2017 when subsequently, running back receptions spiked.
In PPR formats, these running backs will be valuable. You do not need the starting running back on a team to warrant fantasy relevancy. A target is worth 2.74 times as much as a carry. If you play standard, it is worth 1.36 times more. But why are you playing standard? Sorry to league shame.
There has been a clear trend recently. The top finishes are seeing more receptions per season. If you cannot guarantee a running back to be the starter, you should prioritize the pass-catching depth ones. Current notable pass catchers behind starters: Devin Singletary (HOU), Jerick McKinnon (KC), and Antonio Gibson (WAS). There may be additional assets, but I am currently unsure how the distribution will shake out. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) may be utilized in this role and potentially Tyjae Spears (TEN) as well. Even the New York Jets have an intriguing opportunity with Breece Hall recovering from his knee injury. They were noted to be interested in Jahmyr Gibbs at pick 15.
Tight End Receptions
There is a basic understanding regarding tight end fantasy finishes. It is relatively easy to finish as a TE1, coming down to the number of touchdowns. Below is a chart depicting the TE1 finishes and their total receptions:
The information from the chart tells us, well, very little. The range of receptions is between 66.42 and 72.33. We would need to look deeper at the finishes. Travis Kelce has averaged 90.4 receptions per season since 2014. While Jared Cook had 43 and 54 reception seasons, below the 66.42 average TE1 low. There needs to be an equilibrium.
The lesson to be learned is receptions do not matter. They do, but not for telling us a story on how the NFL is evolving at the tight end position. The information I am about to share seems subjective, so here we go:
- Early tight ends were possession, target hogs
- Tony Gonzalez
- Jason Witten
- Modern-day tight ends are more athletic
- There will be anomalies
- Early
- Greg Olsen: athletic tight end
- Modern
If you want objective information on tight ends, here you go:
Each position will have a player who will compete for the Greatest of All Time title. Two tight ends jumping to mind are Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. Another name is Tony Gonzalez. However, his last season played was 2013, and the above chart is from 2013-2022. A takeaway with the greats, it will not matter what the NFL is prioritizing with a position. Great players will be heavily involved in an offense. If Gonzalez played in today's NFL, he would not be overlooked because there is a recent emphasis on athletic tight ends.
The modern-day NFL seems to be utilizing the Y tight end, which is the athletic receiving tight end. Evan Engram is an example where Doug Pederson exploited his skill set in 2022. He finished with 98 targets and was TE5. Over the last few seasons, we have seen numerous athletic tight ends selected, such as Kyle Pitts, Jelani Woods, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Luke Musgrave, and Dalton Kincaid. This does not mean the inline blocking tight end is not utilized. NFL offenses will have specific formations. Not every player (Gronkowski) has the skill set to block and be a receiving threat.
Wide Receiver Receptions
Since the league has always favored passing attempts over rushing attempts, it is fair to assume wide receivers will be like tight ends. In terms of, receptions will not matter. We know the assets finishing at the top will be given volume. I do not think I need to bore you with the data confirming such.
Just kidding, of course, I do. Here are the WR1 receptions per season since 2013:
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The range is from 92.17 to 104.17. Similar to tight ends, the wide receiver position will have different positions within. Looking at the 2022 season, Jaylen Waddle only had 75 receptions. Due to his speed and big play ability, he was able to turn those into 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns. Amon Ra. St-Brown had 31 more receptions but 195 yards less.
You may have a wide receiver who specializes in one specific role, or you may have one wide receiver who flourishes in all three. Since the NFL is becoming versatile, you may see a wide receiver line up out wide one play and then find themselves in the slot the next play. Offensive coordinators are attempting to create mismatches with the defense.
When addressing the position in your leagues, it will be important to note the type of role the wide receiver has on their team.
- Slot Receiver
- Positioned inside another wide receiver.
- Generally lines up off the line.
- X-Receiver
- The traditional number one option.
- Lines up out wide.
- Z-Receiver
- Also called the flanker.
- Can be put into motion (e.g., to the slot).
The wide receiver position will have at least double the options to be fantasy relevant compared to running backs and tight ends. It will be important to note the offensive scheme and play style.
- Is the offense run heavy? This may mean the second or third target on the team will not garner enough volume to be fantasy relevant.
- Derrick Henry has averaged 312.3 rushing attempts over the last four seasons.
- He is averaging 22 receptions.
- Is the offense pass heavy? This will mean the second and third targets on the team may garner enough volume to be fantasy relevant.
Let's bring back the Waddle and St. Brown example. When looking at a previous season, how Waddle had more yards on 31 fewer receptions, it will be important to note the number of targets as well. Waddle is the WR2 behind Tyreek Hill, and the duo both finished as a WR1. St. Brown had the luxury of being hyper-targeted in an offense that lacked a true number two option. More targets create the opportunity for more receptions.
St. Brown (6.2) and Waddle (12.1) had drastic differences in average target distance. In PPR leagues, a reception will accumulate one point regardless of where they caught the ball. Despite having more receptions (and two fewer touchdowns), St. Brown finished with only 8.4 more points. A wide receiver's big-play ability will benefit total points.
However, we cannot ensure a wide receiver will make the same [total] big plays each season. We can ensure targets will happen, which means receptions. If you are risk averse, taking a wide receiver with a role like St. Brown will have a higher probability of attaining consistent production.
Discussion
An NFL offense can support multiple wide receivers as fantasy-relevant assets. Additionally, a tight end and running back will be involved. The term too many mouths to feed is addressed to crowded offenses. I wrote about this topic which you can read here.
Wide Receivers
Having young and talented wide receivers will create longevity for your dynasty leagues. It will be important to have a team's number one option, but this does not mean you should shy away from the second option. Specifically if the offense does have a pass-heavy scheme. It will be important to note any coaching changes.
Your league scoring may influence transactions. Full PPR leagues make the wide receivers who are not big play threats but still see consistent targets worthwhile. There may be a wide receiver who is tied to *insert great quarterback here* and become valuable. This is what happened with Gabriel Davis (to Josh Allen). His role likely matters more to his NFL team than your dynasty team.
It will be important to prioritize talented players over situations. It is a bonus if a talented player is in an intriguing situation.
Tight Ends
Having a tight end like Kelce creates a positional advantage to exploit. He is essentially a wide receiver, but you are able to utilize his production in the tight end slot. However, not all tight ends will be as consistent as him. This is likely why the position is often faded when the top talent is off the draft board.
Remember, it is important for a tight end to be a top target on their respective team. You would like to see them be a top two option, but you can settle for the third. Dallas Goedert competed with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He managed to finish as TE5 (PPG) in 2022. A rookie tight end will have questions surrounding their future. In 2018, Baltimore drafted Hayden Hurst (first round) and Mark Andrews (third round). Draft capital is only a portion of the formula.
Running Backs
It is not required for a running back to accumulate receptions to finish as an RB1. It is just preferred. Nick Chubb is one of the best pure rushers in the NFL, his upside is limited due to lack of receptions. This does not mean he cannot be a pass catcher; this tells us his system does not require him to be. This is when an environmental change will be important to note. In fact, Cleveland will have a new system in 2023.
An argument being made for pass-catching running backs is creating a longer shelf life. Typically, running backs were given the ball and tackled by 300-pound defensive linemen. Ekeler has never had a game over 20 carries in the NFL, and 48% of his career games have over 10 carries.
Dynasty Implications
It will be important to note changes in how the NFL game is being played. The tight end and running back positions have evolved, while the wide receiver position has been consistently featured. We are seeing changes, and it will be important to be ahead of the curve.
The talent of the players in question is important. The role the player has on a team is important. We do want to invest in players whose offensive scheme is utilizing their skill set. An important reminder is situations will change while talent does not. A prime example would be Philadelphia trading for A.J. Brown, where he saw a career-high 145 targets in the first season.
There will be a significance placed on rookie scouting. Given how the existing NFL is played, each position will have important factors to check off in their respective profiles. This does not mean if a player fails to meet any criteria, they will automatically be a bust. There will be players who check off all the boxes yet do not live up to the expectations.
It will always be important to note modern-day trends within offensive schemes, but also what defenses are doing to counter. This is a perfect way to stay ahead of the curve, to notice what the NFL offense may be gearing up to implement in the future.
Photos provided by Imagn Images