Dynasty content is part of the ELITE package for Footballguys Premium Subscriptions. We're making this preview available so you can see the edge these subscribers are getting. Sign up here.
Editor's Note: Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) is a three-part series. We recommend reading them in this order:
1. Introduction
2. Rushing Attempts
3. Passing Attempts
Building your dynasty teams around wide receivers creates a foundation for the future. The perceived shelf life of the position outlasts the belief in running backs. Tight ends are important, so long as you have one of the top options. Travis Kelce has nine straight seasons over 800 yards and seven straight seasons over 1,000 yards. Running backs are involved in the passing game, too.
This article will be longer due to providing discourse about wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs. This article will note how the trends apply to 2023 and the foreseeable future. If you are reading this article in 2031, there are still nuggets of information to take in and apply.
Introduction
Below is a visual representation of passing attempts per season:
We can see an increasing trend since 1985. It was not until the late 2000s did we see passing attempts become more prevalent.
The increase in passing attempts creates more opportunities for the receiving weapons to find production. This information is at face value; this creates more potential from your receiving weapons.
NFL Receptions
There will be variables influencing changes in an offensive scheme during a season. The major one is injuries. An injury to a quarterback will vastly change the scheme. The entire offense is built around the quarterback and what they can or cannot do. I think so, right? This makes sense.
An injury to a running back may not be as devastating as a change. We saw Mike Davis take over for Christian McCaffrey's season-ending injury and finish as an RB1 (2020). He was unable to rise to McCaffrey's standards (100+ receptions), but he was able to get the job done (59). I think you can see the picture I am trying to paint. Hopefully, we can agree tight ends and wide receivers are similar in regards.
Running Back Receptions
When thinking about pass-catching specialists, McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara likely jump to mind. Both entered the league in 2017 when subsequently, running back receptions spiked.
In PPR formats, these running backs will be valuable. You do not need the starting running back on a team to warrant fantasy relevancy. A target is worth 2.74 times as much as a carry. If you play standard, it is worth 1.36 times more. But why are you playing standard? Sorry to league shame.
There has been a clear trend recently. The top finishes are seeing more receptions per season. If you cannot guarantee a running back to be the starter, you should prioritize the pass-catching depth ones. Current notable pass catchers behind starters: Devin Singletary (HOU), Jerick McKinnon (KC), and Antonio Gibson (WAS). There may be additional assets, but I am currently unsure how the distribution will shake out. Zach Charbonnet (SEA) may be utilized in this role and potentially Tyjae Spears (TEN) as well. Even the New York Jets have an intriguing opportunity with Breece Hall recovering from his knee injury. They were noted to be interested in Jahmyr Gibbs at pick 15.
Tight End Receptions
There is a basic understanding regarding tight end fantasy finishes. It is relatively easy to finish as a TE1, coming down to the number of touchdowns. Below is a chart depicting the TE1 finishes and their total receptions:
The information from the chart tells us, well, very little. The range of receptions is between 66.42 and 72.33. We would need to look deeper at the finishes. Travis Kelce has averaged 90.4 receptions per season since 2014. While Jared Cook had 43 and 54 reception seasons, below the 66.42 average TE1 low. There needs to be an equilibrium.
The lesson to be learned is receptions do not matter. They do, but not for telling us a story on how the NFL is evolving at the tight end position. The information I am about to share seems subjective, so here we go:
- Early tight ends were possession, target hogs
- Tony Gonzalez
- Jason Witten
- Modern-day tight ends are more athletic
- There will be anomalies
- Early
- Greg Olsen: athletic tight end
- Modern
- T.J. Hockenson: possession tight end
- Early
If you want objective information on tight ends, here you go:
This idea that you can actually attack the defense from the middle of the field took a while to catch on, but really took off in the mid-2000s.
— Adam Harstad (@AdamHarstad) August 23, 2020
Number of 800-yard seasons from a TE by decade
1980s: 20
1990s: 10
2000s: 36
2010s: 57
(This ignores the concurrent rise of slot WRs.)
Each position will have a player who will compete for the Greatest of All Time title. Two tight ends jumping to mind are Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. Another name is Tony Gonzalez. However, his last season played was 2013, and the above chart is from 2013-2022. A takeaway with the greats, it will not matter what the NFL is prioritizing with a position. Great players will be heavily involved in an offense. If Gonzalez played in today's NFL, he would not be overlooked because there is a recent emphasis on athletic tight ends.
The modern-day NFL seems to be utilizing the Y tight end, which is the athletic receiving tight end. Evan Engram is an example where Doug Pederson exploited his skill set in 2022. He finished with 98 targets and was TE5. Over the last few seasons, we have seen numerous athletic tight ends selected, such as Kyle Pitts, Jelani Woods, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Luke Musgrave, and Dalton Kincaid. This does not mean the inline blocking tight end is not utilized. NFL offenses will have specific formations. Not every player (Gronkowski) has the skill set to block and be a receiving threat.
Wide Receiver Receptions
Since the league has always favored passing attempts over rushing attempts, it is fair to assume wide receivers will be like tight ends. In terms of, receptions will not matter. We know the assets finishing at the top will be given volume. I do not think I need to bore you with the data confirming such.
Just kidding, of course, I do. Here are the WR1 receptions per season since 2013:
Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
