Editor's Note: Analyzing NFL Offenses (1985-2022) is a three-part series. We recommend reading them in this order:
1. Introduction
2. Rushing Attempts
3. Passing Attempts
Running backs attaining the workhorse or bellcow workloads become important in dynasty leagues. When you can assure young running backs on a high-powered offense, they make you a contender. There is hesitancy when addressing the running back position, especially in dynasty startups. This article will note the total rushing attempts per year dating back to 1985.
If you are reading this article before the introductory article, I would suggest you read it first. The introductory article provides information to apply here. This article will note how the trends apply to 2023 and the foreseeable future. If you are reading this article in 2031, there are still nuggets of information to take in and apply.
Introduction
The days are gone when teams hand the ball off to a running back and call it football. The over-glorification of highlight reel plays may be a modern-day factor. I digress. We do not need to get deep into a dynasty article. Facts to consider when addressing the running back position:
- Age
- Environment
- Are they actually good
Below is a visual representation of rushing attempts per season dating back to 1985.
We are seeing an increasing trend in league average rushing attempts. This must be meaningful. Here are important takeaways from the graph:
- Most attempts (1985):
- Fewest attempts (2018):
- Average:
However, in 2022 we saw 464.1 rushing attempts. This is a drastic increase and only 22.9 attempts from the most in a single year. Also, this is the sixth most attempts amongst the 38 years analyzed. It does indicate the league is rushing the ball more.
Age
You have likely heard about the running back age apex. This is a time for a running back where they hit a point in their life where they will lose value and production. I wrote about this topic a few years back, if you want to read it you can here. The SparkNotes: great running backs will perform beyond the age apex, while bad running backs will get replaced. The apex involves a human-made value system, and within it are edges to exploit. The value is assigned to every running back, assuming every running back declines. LaDanian Tomlinson averaged 326.6 rushing attempts, 1,439.2 yards, and 17.8 touchdowns between his age-25 and age-29 seasons. You would have missed out on five top-tier seasons.
But what about Todd Gurley? He hit the age-apex and started to decline. He was considered a “great”, right? I will address this later, for now, back to the information at hand.
Environment
Coaching changes will happen, resulting in new coaches being hired. This is an example of a variable to note when addressing dynasty players. A running back may have been favored by Coach A. However, Coach B is hired and changes up the scheme.
It is plausible for a running back to contain a unique skillset not yet exploited within an offensive scheme. Cordarrelle Patterson was mis-utilized until his age-30 season, where he saw 153 rushing attempts and 69 targets. This backpacks off how the NFL evolves; unfortunately, players may be ahead of their time.
Are they actually good
Likely the most important factor, they need to be talented. There are instances where a player will receive a large workload. Understanding why this happened will be important. Did they receive the workload because the starter sustained an injury? There are times when just-a-guy, also known as JAG, will be given opportunities.
Bottomline, invest in talented players. There will be situations where a player is not in the ideal scheme – think Kyle Pitts. An outstanding talent but is in a run-first scheme with a coach trying to win football games. This is a reminder the NFL does not care about the make-believe game we play. I know he is a tight end, and this is a running back article. Forgive me.
Rushing attempts hidden agenda
You are being fooled. Rushing attempts are increasing, but it seems at the quarterbacks' expense. Sure, rushing attempts have increased. This does not mean the NFL is bringing back the pound-and-run styles.
- In 2022 the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons were two teams emphasizing the run game. This goes against the original point I am trying to make regarding rushing quarterbacks. Yes, Justin Fields had significant rushing attempts – it will be important to note designed runs versus quarterback scrambles. Fields had 38% of his carries from designed runs. David Montgomery (201) and Khalil Herbert (129) were still included in the run game.
- Maybe NFL offenses are like fashion, popular at one time to only wait 20 years to bring back.
I am sure there are additional examples over the years, I just wanted to point out a counter-example. Let’s look at why quarterbacks are affecting the trend. I looked at the top 12 fantasy finishes dating back to 2013. This is when FantasyPros first recorded fantasy finishes:
The graph depicts why quarterbacks may be an important factor in the increase in rushing attempts. Over the last four seasons, the top-12 quarterbacks have rushed for 71.6 attempts per season.
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There is a direct correlation between total rushing attempts and QB1 rushing attempts. There is a similar trend since 2013. Quarterback rushing attempts have increased, while total rushing attempts have, too.
Our own Nick Whalen confirmed the original notion of how the NFL game is evolving, specifically for quarterbacks.
It will always be important to note modern-day trends within offensive schemes, but also what defenses are doing to counter.
Discussion
Being told rushing attempts are increasing does a disservice when not diving into why this is happening. If rushing attempts are increasing, then the running backs must be a byproduct of this. It makes sense, given the running backs typically handle the rushing attempt aspect. We have seen a drastic increase in QB1 rushing attempts since 2019. The NFL offense is evolving, and the quarterbacks are making a difference in the run game. This could be due to designed quarterback runs or scrambling quarterbacks extending the play.
Running backs are still important to the NFL offense and subsequently our dynasty (and fantasy) teams. Here are the RB1 rushing attempts dating back to 2013.
From 2013-2016 we see how the NFL favored rushing the ball. Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman were two notable running backs. In 2017 and 2018, those rushing attempts dipped. Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey were two reasons to explain why. These were pass-catching running backs who saw limited carries to start their careers. If there are any Chicago Bears fans reading this, 2018 had Tarik Cohen’s RB1 season with 99 total carries. We can see how the NFL is changing with these numbers and conditional formatting to contribute an aesthetically visual experience. I am sorry for rambling; back to running backs.
Dynasty Implications
There are numerous ways to attack your dynasty leagues. You may be hesitant to draft a running back early due to their perceived shelf life. When doing a startup, it will be important to consider variables (age, talent, environment) when drafting your team. You may be in a league and looking to trade for (or away) a running back asset. No matter where you are in your dynasty league’s life, it will be important to have a fundamental understanding of the individual asset and the existing NFL play style.
Both situations have similarities when making roster transactions. It is fun to build a young team but remember, the goal is to win championships. You may have heard to never have an RB1 on your roster if you are rebuilding. To bring back the LaDainian Tomlinson example, he averaged 326.6 rushing attempts, 1,439.2 yards, and 17.8 touchdowns between his age-25 and age-29 seasons. You would have missed out on five top-tier seasons just because the narrative surrounding running backs tells you to trade away these assets.
- Age
- Rookie contract
- Second contract
- Environment
- Are they in the right scheme?
- Talent
- Great running backs do not magically become bad because they turned a certain age.
- Bad running backs get replaced.
These variables are part of a formula to help guide your decisions. The final piece of the puzzle will be how the NFL offense is existing at the current time. A player may contain a skillset not yet exploited by the NFL. However, this may not apply directly to running backs as it would to a wide receiver or tight end. McCaffrey and Kamara’s skillset guided their team to cater to their strengths. The NFL has rostered a pass-catching specialist; for the most part, they just may not have been featured in the offense.
It will be important to note any injuries the running back has sustained in their career. I have preached that great running backs can go beyond the age apex. Unfortunately, injuries are a part of the game. Running backs sustain the most injuries among all the positions. This should not sway you away from investing in running backs. To finish the Gurley example - I said I would come back around to - he had arthritis in his knees. A result of a previous ACL injury suffered in college. To claim Gurley declined of age indirectly supports the original sentiment.
Rushing Quarterback Importance
Mobile and scrambling quarterbacks are becoming a trend, at least in QB1 finishes. The above chart shows a clear indication of how quarterback rushing attempts have spiked recently. Not all quarterbacks need to replicate what Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields accomplish on the ground. Joe Burrow only had 257 yards rushing and finished as QB4 (PPG) in 2022. When addressing the quarterback position, it will be okay to select a pocket quarterback like Burrow. So long as they are: talented and in the right scheme. A high-powered offense with two top-tier wide receivers is appealing.
Kirk Cousins is another pocket passer finishing as a QB1. Another indication mobile quarterbacks are not necessarily required. However, looking at the 2022 NFL Draft. We saw all the first-round quarterbacks drafted have a mobile skill set. This may not mean they are running quarterbacks. Rather, they are able to improvise and create with their feet. When looking at college stats, it is important to remember a sack (in college) counts against their rushing stats.
Final Words
The NFL game is evolving, which means positions will too. We saw how the quarterbacks are being involved further in the run game. Running backs remain in the run game, but we are seeing a dip in their total rushing attempts per year. This should not alarm you. Running backs have evolved from just being a pound-the-rock type of asset. The final article in this series will dive into passing attempts and the information to be found.
Photos provided by Imagn Images