RELATED: See When to Expect an Elite TE to Decline here

The running back position in dynasty football is volatile. Value becomes the focus as the position progresses. There may be immediate production while value fluctuates. There is a preconceived notion that running backs have a shorter lifespan. This means running backs will only give your team production for the shortest time compared to other positions. This article will examine total career touches in college and the NFL and identify the age-out season for running backs. I will define this by the last season under 200 touches (without significant injury).

Does high-volume exposure in college directly relate to the career length of an NFL running back? Time to go back to school.

College and NFL Touches for Elite Running Backs

Accumulating high volume in college coincides with their College Dominator rating, which is the player’s percentage of the team’s offensive production. In theory, the higher volume for a running back results in superior wear and tear on the body. The more a college running back produces, the more touches they are getting. I decided to go with ten running backs from different eras of the NFL. This accounts for respective changes in football over the years. Here are the running backs and their college touches:

Regardless of the number of years the running backs spent at their colleges, the total touches are being examined. Having looked at ten running backs who many consider at the top of their position.

• The average college touches for these legendary running backs is 730.

The running back position is the lowest career-long position in the NFL at 2.57 years, with the league average being 3.3 years. Does this mean the repeated exposure to the running back position during their college career will generate a shorter NFL career? Time to dig into the data.

Despite college wear and tear, these running backs provided extraordinary NFL value. This study intentionally focused on players with top-tier career finishes. Every running back had over 2,500 touches in the NFL, with the most being 4,924:

The shortest career was Barry Sanders, who played 10 seasons. Here are their age-out seasons, the last season under 200 touches:

The average age for the 10 running backs studied is 32.6. This age does not address the running back position. This age addresses the running backs who are the best at their position who have a combination of talent mixed with high volume. The asterisk indicates the running backs who retired for an age-out season, not because they did not receive the volume. 

• Emmitt Smith had 282 touches (age 35)
• Curtis Martin had 244 touches (age 32) - in 12 games before a career-ending injury
• Barry Sanders had 380 touches (age 30) 

Notable Injuries

Injuries are common in every sport, and it would not be surprising a position accumulating high amounts of touches per game acquires injuries over their career. Were the ten running backs that I picked not vulnerable to injuries, or did I just get lucky and find the perfect cases? Common injuries for running backs are ACL/PCL strain and tears, high-ankle sprains, and hamstring and Achilles injuries. The injuries of concern from the sample are:

• Ricky Williams – torn chest muscle
• Marshall Faulk – double-digit knee surgeries
• Steven Jackson – knee injury and additional surgery rookie year
• Adrian Peterson – torn LCL, ACL, meniscus
• Barry Sanders – torn ligament, left knee
• Frank Gore Sr. – torn ACL
• Fred Taylor – on record saying, "NFL doctors never told me about shoulder injuries."
• Curtis Martin – degenerative bone-on-bone condition; career ending

I found that eight out of 10 running backs had notable injuries. The injuries may be significant, given that running backs must have the agility and ability to make cuts and accelerate at any given time. The average career length of this group was 12.3 years (low of 10, high of 15).

Current Top 12 Running Backs

 The average age of our top 12 running backs is 24. After LaDainian Tomlinson turned 25, he ran for 72 touchdowns and 5,861 yards over the next four years. At age 30, he ran for 730 yards and 12 touchdowns. Here are our current running backs with their age:

It must be determined if the running back will be considered among the greatest at the position. While volume affects immediate production, talent ultimately drives longevity. I did not feel it was necessary to identify college touches. It is determined that total touches do not affect longevity. Sure, more touches expose the running backs to more potential injury opportunities. The potential did not matter to the teams giving the older running backs 250+ touches a season or 300+ in Sanders’ case.

A Top 12 ranking is not enough evidence to determine if a running back will have longevity or the determined 32.6 age-out career. The running back will need to be considered an all-time great when their career is over. 

Running Back Decline

If the wear-and-tear theory on running backs is true, it would make sense why Frank Gore Sr. had the second-highest NFL touches after only having 371 in college. Ricky Williams had the most college touches, and he averaged 252.1 NFL touches per season played. The random ten running backs all come from different eras in the NFL to account for any fluctuation in the game. The data showed no significant evidence that high volume impacts a running back's shelf life.

The most notable variable affecting a running back was Ricky Williams, who retired for one season (2004), came back for one year (2005), then missed the following year (2006) due to a substance abuse violation. He played in the Canadian Football League (CFL) during this time away from the NFL. I would be remiss if I did not mention he had the lowest NFL touches, too. He played a full slate of games in 64% of his NFL seasons and over 12 in 82%. The season he played one game (2007) was following a suspension; when he got reinstated in Week 11, he did get injured.

There are variables you cannot account for in the future (injuries, change of teams, retirement). If the history of elite running backs is true, the future should be, too. It is important to note the limitations of this analysis. This analysis was done on touches, not production. Further research will need to be done on production to find a correlation with age. The running backs commonly produced down years due to an injury or the final seasons of their career. These variables are not substantial enough to overlook the other 8-10 years of significant seasonal play.

Fantasy and Dynasty Implications

It was found that there is no correlation between the extreme volume of touches and longevity at the running back position, accounting for the combined collegiate and NFL touches. The noteworthy variables affecting seasonal games were injuries sustained or their last season played. Remember, we are accounting for the top-tier assets at their respective position. The average age when the legendary running backs had their age-out season was 32.6.

• At age 33, Frank Gore Sr. had 263 carries for 1,025 yards and four touchdowns.
  • RB12 finish in PPR scoring
• At age 33, Adrian Peterson had 251 carries for 1,042 yards and seven touchdowns.
  • RB19 finish in PPR scoring
• At age 35, Emmitt Smith had 267 carries for 937 yards and nine touchdowns.
  • RB25 finish in PPR scoring

The sentiment is not guaranteeing a running back will produce fantasy-relevant play into their 30s, rather identifying the possibility is within reason or consideration. The data found does not suggest top-tier production. The data informs the possibility of finding production within the perceived low value of the aging assets. It will be imperative to account for the variables surrounding their environment (injuries, scheme, depth) as an elite running back ages. In dynasty, it appears reasonable to expect RB2 production into their early 30s. This is an edge to exploit if you are a contender. In season-long leagues, these running backs can be drafted in the later rounds for depth purposes or best-ball spike weeks.

This sample focuses on legendary running backs, which may influence the results. There must be a reason the running back position is the lowest in career length. The notion that running backs decline around age 26 is certainly feasible for running backs who are replaceable. Maybe—just maybe—running backs don’t matter. Only the right ones do.

If you enjoyed this article, check out the first part of this series, where I looked into tight ends. Next up will be wide receivers.