Sunday Showdown Week 1

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.

Game Theory

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading to take on the Dallas Cowboys as 2.5-point favorites with an O/U of 50.5. With so many viable fantasy options, the pricing is flat. On slates like these, you can fit whomever you want. The important goal to keep in mind is uniqueness. With so many paths to success, it is a good week to lean into 5-1 builds, lower than average roster percentages, and more salary left on the table. Roster percentages are also relatively flat, so neither team should be considered an avoid for onslaught builds. Take a stand on which team you believe could run away with this game and skew your lineups heavily in that direction.

Injury Round-Up

• Russell Gage – Hamstring – likely to play
• Chris Godwin – Knee – active

Captain Consideration

1. Tom Brady
2. Mike Evans
3. Dak Prescott
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Leonard Fournette

Cowboys Offense

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Dak Prescott should come in with the second-highest roster percentage. He will be without a viable second option at wide receiver as Michael Gallup is doubtful to play, and Jalen Tolbert has failed to step into an every-down role. Noah Brown will technically function as Prescott’s number two wide receiver, but Dalton Schultz projects as the best receiving option outside of CeeDee Lamb. The lack of receiving depth leaves plenty of value in the Cowboy's mid-tier options.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott $7,800 – Flex

Ezekiel Elliott has had mixed reviews as pertains to his role in this offense. On one hand, Jerry Jones continues to go on about the team “going as Ezekiel goes” while on the other hand, Pollard’s role is said to increase. If you can look past the “best shape of his life” narrative and stare at this slate, Elliott is a fine option to play as the lone Cowboy, but he projects slightly better than Dalton Schultz and slightly worse than Tony Pollard. He is ~$1,000 more expensive than both.

Tony Pollard $6,400 – Flex

Tony Pollard is an exciting play because his price makes him slightly too expensive to lock him in, so his roster percentage may remain in check. While Schultz looks to be the second receiving option, Pollard still has an outside shot at that title. Schultz and Pollard share a similar roster percentage, median projection, and salary. They are both great plays and can be paired in lineups with plenty of salary left over the stack Brady with three Buccaneers or Cowboys onslaughts.

RECEIVER

CeeDee Lamb - Captain or Flex

For the Cowboys to remain competitive in this game, CeeDee Lamb should have a target percentage in the high 20s. He has the upside to receive more than 10 targets and should be Prescott’s first read in the redzone. Even at his high roster percentage, he can still fit uniquely into lineups as the only Cowboy paired with five Buccaneers since he may be the only receiver to produce for Dallas.

Jalen Tolbert $5,800 – Flex

Jalen Tolbert is a surprising inactive for MNF.

Noah Brown $3,000 – Flex

Noah Brown is the best play on the entire slate. He is projected as an every-down player with an extremely low salary, and his projected roster percentage is low. He has been with Prescott his entire career, and this will not be the first time Brown stepped into a hefty role. Last season Brown saw over 60% of the snaps two times. In Week 11, he received nine targets, and in Week 12, he received three. Even if Brown lands in the middle of that target spectrum, he likely makes value at $3,000.

Dalton Schultz $6,800 – Flex

Even though Schultz is one of the better projections for the Cowboys, his lofty price tag will keep his roster percentage reasonable. Unlike Dawson Knox in Week 1, who shared the same price, Schultz will be a focal point of the offense. If Lamb fails to see the targets he deserves, it will be because Schultz is catching check downs from Prescott under pressure.

Under the Radar

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Simi Fehoko $200 – Flex

Simi Fehoko is functioning as the number 3 wide receiver with Tolbert inactive. He is an excellent punt option at $200, but I still prefer Brown if he fits.

Jake Ferguson $200 – Flex

Jake Ferguson will see the field in some capacity regardless of the game script, but with Dallas’ thinned wide receiver group, and their strong backfield, they may be forced into more two tight end sets.

Buccaneers Offense

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady $10,000 - Captain or Flex

Much will be made of Prescott’s decimated receiving group, but Tom Brady is not working with much better. Outside of Mike Evans, Brady has Chris Godwin and Russell Gage dealing with injury while Julio Jones is still learning the offense. While onslaughts are viable for either of these teams, Prescott is certainly the easier quarterback to stack with so many cheaper options. Brady can be paired with Fournette, and even Rachaad White, as he is willing to check down to his backs; and may have no choice this week.

RUNNING BACK

Leonard Fournette – Captain or Flex

We know Brady will find a way to lead a productive offense regardless of his team’s health, so the question is how? Leonard Fournette is likely to be the crutch Brady leans on. Even with talk of a decreased workload due to the drafting of rookie Rachaad White, Fournette projects to have one of the highest snap shares in the NFL. His price at just $8,600 is simply too low with the upside for the most production on the slate.

RECEIVER

Mike Evans $10,600 - Captain or Flex

With Rob Gronkowski out of the picture, Mike Evans functions as Brady’s favorite (and perhaps only) red zone target. His price is slightly too high for a player so heavily reliant on touchdown equity, but Evans has the benefit of being the last man standing. He projects slightly better than Fournette but costs exactly $2,000 more at a similar roster percentage.

Chris Godwin $7,400 – Flex

Chris Godwin will be active for week 1. Even while playing, it only muddies the water for the receiver group. He will almost certainly be on a snap count as he works back from his ACL tear. We have him projected for 9.2 points. He's playable from a tournament perspective in the hopes that his injury keeps his roster percentage low.

Russell Gage $6,200 – Flex

Russell Gage is in a similar boat as Godwin in that he may only play a limited role due to injury. Even without injury, Gage could be taking a back seat to Julio Jones as early as Week 1, depending on how quickly Jones has picked up the offense. We have Gage projected for a reasonable 10.5 points, but his role has a wide range of outcomes. Pollard and Schultz are both better options in Gage's range.

Julio Jones $5,000 – Flex

Julio Jones will likely see the third-highest target share outside Evans and Fournette. Given his low price, he will have been rostered between 30%-40%. In Buccaneer stacks Jones can be paired with Evans, Fournette, and Brady, followed by Noah Brown and any mid-range Cowboys options.

Cameron Brate $5,200 – Flex

Cameron Brate does not make my player pool at $5,200. In many cases, the incumbent at a position would get the benefit of the doubt to be the primary producer. In Brate’s case, he has been on the team for multiple years and has been replaced multiple times. He may receive the most targets at tight end in Week 1, but he's in a three-man committee of tight ends with touchdown upside. If you’re inclined to take a shot on a Buccaneers tight end for the touchdown equity, you’re better off saving salary on Kyle Rudolph or Cade Otton.

Under the Radar

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Rachaad White $2,400 – Flex

Rachaad White gained some steam coming out of the training camp when he was announced as the team’s backup running back ahead of Giovanni Bernard and KeShawn Vaughn. His roster percentage may be a bit too high, but if he truly works into Fournette’s role as speculated, he is worth far more than $2,400.

Cade Otton $200 – Flex

Cade Otton is a similar play to Ferguson, except the tight end depth chart is wide open for the Buccaneers. The team clearly isn’t comfortable with Brate given that they drafted Otton with valuable draft capital and brought in Kyle Rudolph.