All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week.
SLATE LANDSCAPE
To finish in the top 1% of the field, your lineup must be a unique paring of correlation, quality one-offs, and low ownership. We'd all be millionaires if it were as simple as playing the highest projected lineup with the lowest projected ownership.
The first step in the process is identifying the roster construction the field will likely land on so you know where you need to pivot.
QUARTERBACK LANDSCAPE
This week’s slate is a two-man race between Jalen Hurts ($7,600/17.7%) and Josh Allen ($8,200/15.4%). Both Hurts and Allen are projected to double the next highest roster percentage at quarterback. We have Hurts projected to outscore Allen by .2 points while Hurts offers $600 in salary relief.
Through two weeks Allen looks to be leading one of the most prolific offenses in recent history. His start has been reminiscent of Dak Prescott’s two seasons ago. The Bills are first in the league in pass rate over expectation, facing off against another top-5 passing offense in the Dolphins. The pace should be slightly above average with the chance to have the top blown off if Tua Tagovailoa can click with his top targets once again. Allen seems unstoppable, but his roster percentage has us taking a hard look at other options.
Hurts has failed to match Allen’s productivity as a passer, but he has made up for the difference in rushing upside. He is 11th overall in rushing on 28 attempts through two games. Hurts has the exact same number of rushing attempts as Justin Fields has passing attempts on the season. The Commanders have given up some huge rushing performances and we expect week three to be no different. If we’re going to pay top dollar for a quarterback with a projected roster percentage of 15%, we may as well save $600 with Hurts over Allen.
QUARTERBACK PIVOT
Pivoting this week feels much easier than most. With 30% of quarterback roster percentage going to two players, it should not be a problem to find some elite quarterbacks in the same price range to gain leverage. The next best options are Patrick Mahomes II ($7,900/7.7%) and Kyler Murray ($7,300/5.8%). They are both projected for half the roster percentage of Hurts or Allen. They give up about 4 points in median projection but they’re both playing in high-scoring game environments with similar ceilings.
Mahomes was shaky in week two after starting the year with a five-touchdown performance which sent him to the sideline before the fourth quarter. We have him closer to 40 attempts this week against the banged-up Colts defense. All three of his primary receiving options project for roster percentages around 5%, making the team stack contrarian enough that you can play some of the more popular options elsewhere in the lineup.
Hurts’ rushing upside has been matched only by Lamar Jackson and that is mostly due to his 75-yard touchdown in week 2. Murray may not be in the same tier as those two, but he has added three points on five rushes each of the first two weeks. We have him projected for 30 yards on five carries once again. His 49 pass attempts last week were boosted largely by the scoring deficit the Cardinals were in most of the game. Look for a similar environment this week with Murray expected to play from behind for much of the game. Murray has 50-attempt upside with the ability to break a long run for the cheapest price tag of all the above options.
RUNNING BACK LANDSCAPE
The theme of this week at running back is mid-priced volume. David Montgomery ($5,900/14.4%), Leonard Fournette ($6,500/11.4%), and Joe Mixon ($7,600/13.7%) are the most popular options. Each of these backs project well but they have holes in their range of outcomes that make it worth pivoting to options with less projected roster percentages.
Montgomery has benefited from Matt Eberflus’ unwillingness to let Fields play quarterback. The Bears have passed just 28 times in two games. Week one may have been a torrential downpour, but I’m not so sure Eberflus would’ve called the game any differently otherwise. Montgomery has handled 66% and 80% of the backfield so far. He’s had 37 touches, but Chicago is tied for 29th in the league in red zone opportunities. Montgomery makes sense from a volume perspective, but the Bears aren’t an offense we should be looking to invest in.
Fournette projects to be one of the better plays of the slate, but the Buccaneers have had similar scoring woes as the Bears. They are tied in terms of red zone opportunities and the Buccaneers have scored just 39 points on the season. Fournette is being propped up by Mike Evans's suspension paired with multiple key injuries at receiver, but he has been playing through a hamstring injury himself. Fournette projects well, but there are similar, cheaper, and less rostered plays that we will get to.
Joe Mixon has had great usage while playing over 70% of the snaps in each of his first two games. His rushing production has been lacking, but his passing game usage has made up for it. His price is about $500 too high due to the expected run-heavy approach heading into New York to beat up on the Jets. I expect the Bengal's offensive to take a huge step forward this week, but Mixon’s roster percentage is a touch too high given his price.
RUNNING BACK PIVOT
DAndre Swift ($7,200/6.3%) and Aaron Jones ($7,400/4.2%) are two strong mid-priced options to pivot to. We have them both projected for 16.3 points. Both backs have been carrying modest roster percentages despite their elite ceilings because of their shared backfields.
Swift played 67% of the snaps in week one before dropping to 51% in week two. He’s been working through an ankle injury that he has assured is “good to go” for game three. He set Jamaal Williams up for two short touchdowns in week one which has skewed public perception of the backfield. Williams has racked up touches in short-yardage situations, but Swift has been the more efficient back. There is always a chance Swift gets vultured again, but his leverage paired with his ceiling makes him worth the risk.
We can copy and paste the same concerns over to Jones. He is splitting the Packers backfield touches with a less efficient running mate in A.J. Dillon. Last week Dillon turned 18 carries into just 61 yards. Jones turned 18 touches into 170 total yards. Week two was a prime example of why you may want to invest in these higher ceiling backs even when they have formidable running mates with the potential to eat at their production. It was only a one-game sample size, but I expect the efficiency to be consistent with Jones even as his splits carries.
WIDE RECEIVER LANDSCAPE
The field's roster percentage at wide receiver is going to condense around three options in Cooper Kupp (9,900/13.7%), Justin Jefferson ($9,300/14.7%), and Stefon Diggs ($7,700/15.8%). Each option is elite, but Diggs is the far superior play.
Both Kupp and Diggs have 24 receptions on the season, while Jefferson has 15. They each own massive target shares amongst their receiver groups. They also all have positive game environments. The only difference between these three highly rostered receivers is that Diggs will save roughly $2,000. It is worth playing at least one of these options but given their projected roster percentage there is no real reason to play Jefferson or Kupp over Diggs unless they pair with your game stack.
If avoiding Diggs, the better option is to pivot to a cheaper group of wide receivers rather than sticking with Jefferson or Kupp.
WIDE RECEIVER PIVOT
The $7,000 range of wide receivers is just as strong as the $9,000 range from a point-per-dollar perspective. Three of the preferred options are Tyreek Hill ($7,600/6.6%), Jaylen Waddle ($6,800/5.8%), and Michael Pittman ($6,900/5.5%).
Hill and Waddle provide direct pricing leverage over Diggs, but the better option would be to pair all three, which I will touch on in my favorite stack of the week.
Pittman is being projected for 15.7 points in one of the more underrated game environments on the slate. He missed week two after playing 98% of the snaps in week one. He turned 13 targets into 9 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. He was egregiously mispriced to start the year, so his roster percentage was through the roof. After missing a week due to injury, and receiving a price bump, the field could overlook Pittman on this slate. The Colts scored zero points against a lackluster Jaguars defense in Pittman’s absence. Expect Pittman to pick right back up from his week one production with an even higher market share.
TIGHT END LANDSCAPE
In each of the first two weeks, we have projected at least one tight end for a roster percentage above 10%. This week is more traditional in that the highest roster percentage is 5.2%. There aren’t any players to focus on pivoting away from. On a slate like this, I prefer adding tight ends to my game stacks to provide some uniqueness.
TIGHT END PIVOT
Tavis Kelce ($7,900/4.6%) and Mark Andrews ($6,900/3.9%) are both strong options in a similar price range to some of the more rostered receivers.
Pairing Kelce with Mahomes and JuJu Smith-Schuster($5,500/6.7%) feels like chalk but on this slate, you end up with three players under 10% on one of the league’s most productive offenses. They can stack with Pittman for nice leverage and a strong projection.
Zach Ertz ($4,600/2.9%) is a viable option to add to Murray stacks with either Greg Dortch ($4,300/2.8%) or Marquise Brown ($6,000/3.8%). He has played on 60% and 84% of the team's snaps in week one and week two respectively. His best competition for opportunity has yet to be activated in Trey McBride.
CHALK TALK
The term chalk in sports betting refers to the heavily favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is an important part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineups become positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But your lineups can quickly get buried when a player the crowd loves meets his lofty expectations while you choose to avoid him.
If you enter multiple lineups, deciding whether to play or pass on chalky players is non-binary. The overall roster percentage of your lineup, how the player correlates to the rest of the lineup, and the size of the tournament you are entering all provide needed context.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
I discussed Diggs in the wide receiver landscape portion, but for the reasons I provided his roster percentage should climb into the twenties. He is simply too cheap relative to his opportunity and game environment. Treat him similarly to Pittman in week one, where his price makes him worth the cumulative roster percentage he eats up. The tricky part is that if you pair Diggs with Allen you’ve given yourself a very chalky baseline. If you pair Diggs with one of the expensive pivot options then you will be hard-pressed to have Diggs hit his ceiling without Allen outscoring your quarterback.
I recommend either playing Diggs with Allen and working hard to be unique elsewhere or play Diggs in a Tagavailoa stack hoping the Dolphins can keep pace.
Austin Ekeler ($8,000/13.3%) is another back with a roster projection over 10%. One thought process says that Ekeler’s usage gets boosted with Justin Herbert ($7,400/7.7%) either sitting or playing injured. I would argue that Ekeler’s ceiling relies heavily on the Charger's offensive production given his average usage. Ekeler racked up multiple receptions in Herbert's final drive with cracked rib cartilage, showing he may be encouraged to check down more often. Given Ekeler’s price, there isn’t much reason to gamble on the result of Herbert’s misfortune. Swift and Jones will have similar opportunities at lower prices and roster percentages.
Each week feels like a decision between Kupp and Davante Adams ($8,400/9.3%). Last week I felt like it was an Adams week given the price discrepancy. This week should be the same way except the Raiders' offense has not been what we had hoped for. Kupp is every bit as reliable as the workhorse running backs we’ve paid up for in the past, but the question will always be who can we play for cheaper? This week is Diggs. If Diggs’ roster percentage rises into the twenties, Kupp becomes a strong play.
CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Contrarian plays typically hover around 5% rostered. You will need at least one of these players to far surpass their median projections to take down a tournament.
Christian Kirk ($6,200 / 4.6%) was a popular option in each of the first two main slates, but his price jump to the $6,000 range should result in the field looking elsewhere. Kirk has been targeted 18 times. He had over 100 yards receiving in game one and two touchdowns in game two. He seems to be worth every bit of the massive contract he was given, and the Jaguars intend to prove it. He should have another strong performance in a high-scoring affair against the Chargers.
Curtis Samuel ($5,100 / 3.9%) was mentioned in this same spot last week. He will continue to be mentioned here until either DraftKings or the field catches up to his usage. He’s being utilized exactly how Washington envisioned when they brought him in as a pricey free agent, only a year later. He’s been targeted 20 times through two games; most of which were designed. I expect Washington to be passing themselves back into contention for most of the game against Hurts and the Eagles. Samuel should see close to 10 targets again with a couple of designed runs to help with his floor.
The Commanders are proving to be one of the better matchups for opposing rushing attacks. While Hurts is 11th in the league in rushing, it is Sanders ($5,500 / 5.7%) who finds himself in the top 10. He even has a rushing touchdown to correct his horrific touchdown rate relative to expectations from last year. The Eagles have liked spreading the ball around to their backs but despite Sanders’ 50% snap share, he is the clear lead option. He received 20 touches in week two compared to just 3 for Kenneth Gainwell and 5 for Boston Scott. He will lead the backfield again in a game that lends itself to rushing production as he should be playing with a lead most of the game.
FAVORITE GAME-STACK
Tua Tagovailoa / Stefon Diggs / Jaylen Waddle / Tyreek Hill
Tua Tagovailoa just completed one of the most astonishing comebacks in league history against one of the league’s most elite quarterbacks. At the start of this week, I had no intention of going back to him, but his projected roster percentage has not budged.
The Dolphins are 3rd in the league in passer rate over expectation while the Bills are 1st. This game has a chance to be the fastest pace on the slate. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle account for over 60% of Tagovailoa’s targets so they provide as safe of a double-stack option as one could ask for.
Going back to the stack that produced a six-touchdown performance just last week feels wrong, but if the field wants to omit Tagovailoa from their player pools in an even better game environment because they think he can’t do it again, he’s worth the risk.
Stefon Diggs is coming off a three-touchdown prime-time performance, so he will not offer much in the way of cumulative roster percentage relief. What he does offer is the eighth most targets through two weeks on the league’s most aggressive offense. Diggs will likely be the most rostered receiver, but he is one of the best values of the slate as he projects similarly to Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson for much less salary.
Tyreek Hill is averaging 70% of the snaps through two weeks. He is third in the league in targets with 25. The Dolphins are passing at a higher-than-expected rate after we collectively assumed Mike McDaniel would bring San Francisco’s run-first philosophy to Miami. He carries the 6th highest projection on the slate with the 12th highest roster percentage, at just under 10%. He and Waddle collectively account for nearly 60% of Tagovailoa’s targets making them easy pairing options.
Jaylen Waddle falls just one spot behind Hill as the 4th most targeted receiver in the NFL. He is simply too cheap at $6,800. He and Hill should both be priced just under $8,000 but DraftKings is understandably having a hard time wrapping their heads around the Dolphins producing two of the league’s top-5 most utilized receivers. His roster percentage is somehow even lower than Hill’s at 8%.