All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week.
SLATE LANDSCAPE
To finish in the top 1% of the field, your lineup must be a unique paring of correlation, quality one-offs, and low ownership. We'd all be millionaires if it were as simple as playing the highest projected lineup with the lowest projected ownership.
The first step in the process is identifying the roster construction the field will likely land on so you know where you need to pivot.
QUARTERBACK LANDSCAPE
With only one game total projected over 50 points expect roster percentage to be far less condensed this week. Matthew Stafford ($6,300 / 12%) is leading the way as the slate’s only quarterback projected above 10%. Next up we have Derek Carr ($6,200 / 8.4%) and Tom Brady ($6,400 / 7.5%). Since no shootouts are guiding the field’s quarterback exposure, it appears as though the natural reaction has been to spend down for quarterbacks with high team totals.
The three highest projected quarterbacks on the slate are also the three most expensive, being Lamar Jackson ($7,400 / 5.8%), Kyler Murray ($7,500 / 7.3%), and Russell Wilson ($7,200 / 6.3%). None of these options offer much in the way of added value over their less expensive counterparts due to their price disparity. We can instead take a look at some of the opposing quarterbacks who may benefit from playing catch up to these more popular options.
QUARTERBACK PIVOT
On a normal slate, we may not be excited to talk about Tua Tagovailoa ($5,600 / 2.3%), Marcus Mariota ($5,600 / 3.2%), or Jameis Winston ($5,500 / 3.8%), but without many options standing out, quarterback provides a unique opportunity to pivot. All three of these options are playing in games against more popular quarterbacks that are being propped up by their team totals. While Tagovailoa, Mariota, and Winston are fine plays in their own rights, they have the bonus of benefiting from the success of the higher-rostered quarterbacks opposing them.
In Week 1 Tagovailoa attempted 33 passes and flirted with the 300-yard bonus, all in what would previously be a slow-paced slugfest with the New England Patriots. As football fans, we are oft prone to either overreacting or not reacting enough. The appropriate reaction to the Dolphin's performance in Week 1 would be to acknowledge that Mike McDaniel understands the strength of his offense lies in his receivers, so he is going to get them involved. The field will likely be a week late to the Tagovailoa party so this is one to punch an early ticket to.
One of the biggest questions of the off-season has been which Saints receiver we can trust. If Week 1 was any indication, the answer would be all three. Michael Thomas ($5,800 / 4% ) was targeted eight times and scored twice. Jarvis Landry ($5,000 / 4.4%) was targeted nine times for over 100 yards. Even the rookie Chris Olave($4,500 / 2.9%) received three targets and converted on a key 2-point conversion. Winston is being overlooked against his former team due to the presence of Brady, but he performed about as well as we could’ve hoped in his first live-action post-ACL tear. Pair Winston with two pass catcher and Leonard Fournette ($6,700 / 6.7%) for leverage over the more popular Buccaneers stacks.
Mariota is the toughest play to get to amongst the recommended options as his receivers seem limited at first glance. Though production seemed lacking, Drake London ($5,200 / 4.5%) and Kyle Pitts ($5,400 / 11.7%) both had respectable market shares with seven targets each. Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,000 / 5.7%) is also a viable stacking option as he received five targets to go along with his 100-yard rushing performance. In addition to Mariota’s 33 passing attempts, he rushed for 72 yards. His rushing floor alone puts him in play, but his condensed passing distribution makes him great for a cheap, low-rostered game stack.
RUNNING BACK LANDSCAPE
All of the most viable running backs cost within $500 of $7,000 this week. Saquon Barkley ($7,300 / 26.4%), Joe Mixon ($7,200 / 16.7%), James Conner ($6,900 / 6.9%), Leonard Fournette ($6,700 / 6.7%), and DAndre Swift ($7,000 / 10%) all share similar price tags and median projections. Aside from the ~$7,000 options, we have one ~$5,000 back expected to carry a high roster percentage in Darrell Henderson ($5,700 / 17.8%).
Given their respective Week 1 opportunities, each of Barkley, Mixon, and Fournette could cost over $8,500, yet DraftKings elected to price them all in the mid-range. Henderson’s usage was enticing. He was clearly the primary ball carrier, and there have not been glowing reviews for Cam Akers since the season opener. Eventually, Akers will earn a larger snap share, but for now, it seems to be Henderson’s backfield.
RUNNING BACK PIVOT
This week, there are two routes to take to pivot off the higher rostered running backs. The first route would be to play Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 / 15.2%) or Jonathan Taylor ($9,900 / 18.4%). Since so many of the ~$7,000 running backs were given elite workloads in Week 1, there is not much motivation to pay up for who we consider to be the truly elite backs. Week 2 is the best time to embrace variance and expect some of that running back usage to come back down to earth. We currently have Taylor and McCaffrey projected for over 15% roster percentages but expect that number to shrink throughout the week as people get more comfortable fitting the less expensive work-horses in their lineups.
The second route to take would be embracing the ~$7,000 range but selecting the options with the lowest roster percentages as they all project relatively similarly. Currently, Fournette and Conner both carry roster projections under 7%. Fournette was previously mentioned as a stacking option with Winston and should see close to 70% of the touches with the Buccaneers once again playing as the favorites. Conner also saw over 70% of the backfield snaps while accumulating five targets. Expect the targets to be there for him again in a high-pace game against the Raiders.
With so many great running back options in the same range, let roster percentage dictate where you land.
WIDE RECEIVER LANDSCAPE
It took a week to get here, but we are finally back to the most frustrating question of 2021: “Is it a Cooper Kupp week or a Davante Adams week?”. Adams ($8,600 / 17.9%) takes the top spot in our projected roster percentage, but Kupp ($9,900 / 10.2%) is right behind him at $1,300 more. As another indication of the field flocking to the only game over 50 points, Hunter Renfrow ($5,500 / 8.8%) finds himself towards the top of the roster percentage list. The last name that stands out is Jerry Jeudy ($5,600 / 10.1%), who seems mispriced, as tends to happen with players from the Monday Night Football game.
Adams was targeted two more times (17) than Kupp (15) and is playing in the highest total game of the slate. There isn’t much incentive to go all the way up to Kupp when there is similar production to be had in Adams for much cheaper. The price discrepancy is reflected in their respective roster projection, but the difference isn’t enough to warrant playing Kupp over Adams.
Normally Renfrow would be listed as a pivot from Adams given his price tag, but he is projected to be rostered nearly 10% of the time. He received 6 targets in Week 1 and stacks well with Carr, but there are better options than Renfrow in the ~$5,000 range that we will discuss.
One of the better options is Jerry Jeudy ($5,600 / 10.1%. After an entire offseason of being told how Wilson prefers Courtland Sutton ($6,100 / 6.4%), it was Jeudy who caught the lone touchdown with the same number of targets. The entire Broncos offense was slow to get started, with Wilson taking over a quarter to even target a wide receiver. Expect the Broncos to get on track against the Texans with Jeudy surpassing his Week 1 target total.
WIDE RECEIVER PIVOT
Instead of pivoting off of wide receivers, we will pivot off the condensed running back pool this week. When looking for wide receivers who may succeed at the expense of some of the highly rostered running backs we’re fading, we land on JaMarr Chase ($8,000 / 7.5%), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,500 / 6.1%), and Deebo Samuel ($7,800 / 9%).
Chase was targeted 16 times in Week 1, albeit without Tee Higgins ($5,900 / 6.5%) for a portion of the game. While some of Higgin’s target distribution may be attributed to Chase’s elevated market share, one could argue that Mixon saw the biggest boost. We have a one-week sample size of Mixon being heavily utilized in the passing game, but a 5-year sample size of him being underutilized. Chase is still priced too low and provides leverage over Mixon at a lowly 7.5% rostered.
St. Brown’s 12 targets were overshadowed by Swift’s 144-yard performance. Swift’s roster percentage will settle in above 10%, while St. Brown’s should land somewhere around 5%. Both options are great plays in a Lions v. Commanders game with a chance of a shootout, but St. Brown should offer a 10% roster percentage discount at $500 less.
In season-long leagues, much of the conversation this week will revolve around how much FAAB to spend on Jeff Wilson ($5,100 / 4.4%) I expect some of that conversation to be reflected in Wilson’s roster percentage. The 49ers passing attack failed to make an impact, but it is yet to be seen how much of that was Trey Lance ($5,700 / 5.8%) and how much of that was the torrential downpour. With attention heading towards the 49ers backfield, Samuel now functions as the team's top wide receiver and running back.
TIGHT END LANDSCAPE
After a week of essentially no clarity at tight end, it is no surprise to see the field compensating by targeting the elite options. Travis Kelce plays on Thursday night and George Kittle is out due to injury, so we are left with the last of the top-5 season-long tight ends. Mark Andrews($6,400 / 13%), Darren Waller($5,600 / 9.3%), and Kyle Pitts($5,400 / 11.7%) are all projected to be rostered around 10%.
Andrews is ~$1,000 more expensive than the other two options and projects for similar opportunities. In the blowout against the Jets, Andrews was targeted a respectable seven times, but he deserves a slightly larger market share of their offense. There was concern all off-season surrounding Andrews splits with and without Jackson. The jury is still out, but Andrews is too expensive relative to his pears regardless.
Waller’s roster percentage is but a fraction of Adams' and may even be less than Renfrow's. In a game everyone wants to stack, Waller may be the best option at cost. The Cardinals historically lack the ability to cover any tight end so it is no surprise to see that reflected in Waller’s roster percentage. Waller is by no means contrarian amongst tight ends, but he does provide leverage against his highly rostered teammates.
Pitts was mentioned with Mariota as a quality stacking option. He was targeted seven times but could only pull in two of them. We’d like to see his roster percentage a bit lower after such a letdown but given Pitts’ talent, he will never go overlooked. At his price, Pitts is a strong play who can function as a stacking option with Mariota or as a bring back to Stafford stacks.
TIGHT END PIVOT
I tend to look between the $4,000-$5,000 range as that is where DraftKings tends to hide the best options outside of the elite tier. The field often drives up the roster percentage of whatever $3,000 tight end projects for 3 targets, but in the mid-range, we can find meaningful members of their respective offenses. Tyler Higbee ($ 4,500 / 4%), T.J. Hockenson ($4,700 / 7.2%), and Pat Freiermuth ($4,400 / 3.7%) all carry respectable market shares at under $5,000.
Higbee is strong leverage not only over the tight ends but over Kupp. With a player like Kupp who can dominate a slate, I choose to leverage him in lineups where I’m not playing him. If you play Adams over Kupp this week, it is a good week to target players who may succeed at Kupp’s expense. Higbee was targeted 11 times. If he can find the endzone, it may just be enough to keep Kupp in check.
Both Hockenson and Freiermuth saw market shares on par with what we expected leading into the season. They are integral to their respective offenses with legitimate touchdown equity at ~$1,000 less han the elite talents in Waller and Pitts. The price discount makes up for the talent discrepancy while they should each see target shares rivaling that of the top-tier options.
CHALK TALK
The term chalk in sports betting refers to the heavily favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is an important part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineups become positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But your lineups can quickly get buried when a player the crowd loves meets his lofty expectations while you chose to avoid him.
If you enter multiple lineups, deciding whether to play or pass on chalky players is non-binary. The overall roster percentage of your lineup, how the player correlates to the rest of the lineup, and the size of the tournament you are entering all provide needed context.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
The Rams have the highest team total on the slate, but Stafford is a tough play for multiple reasons. Independent of how Stafford looked in Week 1, the Rams will be 10-point favorites. We have the classic chicken or the egg conversation in that the Rams may run the ball to get the lead, or they may pass to get the lead and then run the ball. Whether the Rams' passing offense is limited or not Stafford’s best option (Kupp) eats up $9,900. Allen Robinson is too thin to warrant his high roster percentage. Henderson is a strong running back option and negatively correlates with the Rams' passing game. Regardless of team totals, there are better options than Stafford for lower roster percentages.
Barkley’s Week 1 performance was fantastic, but multiple backs in his price range had similar performances for half the roster percentage. Barkley is a perfect case of Week 1 overreaction. While he can easily make value at his price, Mixon, Fournette, Swift, and even Conner are equally as likely.
If 2021 taught us anything it’s that you can fade Kupp, or you can fade Adams but you can’t fade both. This week is an Adams week, as he is far cheaper than Kupp and has a better game environment.
CONTRARIAN PLAYS
Contrarian plays typically hover around 5% rostered. You will need at least one of these players to far surpass their median projections to take down a tournament.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,000 / 5.7%)
Tyler Allgeier was considered Patterson’s primary competition all off-season, and he ended up being a healthy scratch in Week 1. Once Damien Williams was injured, Avery Williams had to step in and give Patterson a breather. There is no option behind Patterson that the Falcons feel comfortable with. Patterson’s workload will rival all the $7,000 options we’ve discussed but with a $1,000 discount and a much lower roster percentage.
Curtis Samuel ($4,600 / 3.4%)
Thanks to Carson Wentz’s inconsistent play, we will almost always get Washington Commanders at low roster percentages. Wentz threw a whopping 41 times in Week 1. He targeted Samuel 11 times. While some clearly consider this volume to be a fluke as evident by his roster percentage, this is the volume we should expect for Samuel. He was brought in by Ron Rivera to be the type of player that is schemed open but has been constantly hampered by injury. He is being paid to receive a high target share, and we should expect it to continue.
Jaylen Waddle ($6,400 / 3.4%)
Waddle is a bit more expensive than his Week 1 target share seems to warrant, but we must contextualize that he missed a large portion of the preseason due to injury. He and Hill both saw 67% of the snaps but I expect that to increase, especially with Cedrick Wilson popping up on the injury report. Waddle fits in as that third option in the Dolphins stack or as a one-off with a high ceiling and low roster percentage.
FAVORITE GAME-STACK
Marcus Mariota / Cordarrelle Patterson / Kyle Pitts / Darrell Henderson
This play feels admittedly more thin than I'd like this segment to typically feature, but Mariota demonstrated tremendous upside and is in a great game environment. He ran the ball 12 times in Week 1, many of which were designed. He should be playing from behind most of this game which would result in closer to 40 attempts than the 33 he had in Week 1.
Typically, we don’t want to stack running backs from opposing teams, but I’m viewing Patterson as more of a receiver this week as he operates as a legitimate workhorse.
Either Pitts or London could fit in this spot. Pitts will carry the higher roster percentage but that is irrelevant as so few people will be double-stacking Mariota.
Darrell Henderson
Henderson functions as leverage off the team we expect to carry the highest cumulative roster percentage in the Rams. With so many people focused on stacking Stafford, we can flip the build by stacking the Falcons and bringing it back with the Rams' run game.