All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week.
Slate Landscape
To finish in the top 1% of the field, your lineup must be a unique paring of correlation, quality one-offs, and low ownership. We'd all be millionaires if it were as simple as playing the highest projected lineup with the lowest projected ownership.
The first step in the process is identifying the roster construction the field will likely land on so you know where you need to pivot.
Quarterback Landscape
Without any weekly trends to rely on, the field is leaning into the comfort of the high-priced quarterbacks. Justin Herbert ($7,600/12.6%), Kyler Murray ($7,200/11.4%), and Patrick Mahomes II ($7,700/9.3%) are projected to be the most rostered amongst the top-tier quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts ($6,800/5.3%) will likely be the most rostered cash game quarterback, raising his tournament roster percentage throughout the week.
Heavy spending at quarterback, paired with a top-heavy running backfield, will lead to an increased roster percentage for mid-to-low priced wide receivers.
Quarterback Pivot
The obvious counter to the high-priced quarterbacks will be the low-priced quarterbacks. Daniel Jones ($5000/1.2%) and Jameis Winston ($5,300/1.6%) are both great values. With so much attention being drawn to the high-priced quarterbacks and the subsequent reaction which may shift the field to the low-priced quarterbacks, I am looking to the middle-tier.
When saving at quarterback, I am looking for either rushing upside or 300-yard-bonus upside. For rushing, we have Trey Lance ($6,000/2.6%). For a shot at the 300-yard-bonus, we have Derek Carr ($5,900/6.2%) and Joe Burrow ($6,400/3.2%). While Carr has the best game environment for fantasy production (LV +3.5, O/U 52), Burrow projects the best of the bunch. Lance is a wild card who could make us all look silly for passing on a $6,000 rushing quarterback in a Kyle Shanahan offense.
There is a world where Lance is one of the most obvious plays of every slate for the rest of the year, so he is worth taking a swing on early before anyone else is willing. He is in about as poor of a game environment as one could be in (SF -6.5, O/U 40), but given his numerous avenues to success as a rushing quarterback, he could be immune.
Running back landscape
The first question to answer at running back is whether you play Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 / 7.8%) or Jonathan Taylor (34.2%). While Taylor is in a great match-up (IND -8, O/U 45.5), McCaffrey is simply too cheap, rostered too little, and should be a staple in your lineups until his price reaches the $10,000 range.
Next up are the high point-per-dollar options in Joe Mixon ($7,100 / 14.2%), Travis Etienne ($5,100 / 18.1%), and Alvin Kamara ($7,600 / 13.8%). Mixon does not catch quite enough passes to be viable in a Bengals stack, so he is relegated to one-off status. He has a higher price tag and roster percentage than multiple backs in the $6,000 range, including Najee Harris ($6,400, 6.5%) and Saquon Barkley ($6100, 6%). Etienne can be viable on passing work alone, but to truly hit his ceiling, he needs red zone opportunities over James Robinson, who is considered the starter, with no limitations in week 1. Kamara is worth his price and roster percentage, but there are equally promising options at lower roster percentages in his price range.
Running Back Pivot
McCaffrey should be the most rostered running back on the slate, but we have his roster percentage at just under 8%. Even if he climbed to 20%, he would still make the pivot column. James Conner ($7,000 / 9%) serves multiple purposes in the mid-price range. The Cardinals thinned out wide receiver corps will consume a high roster percentage, which leaves Conner as a unique option to roster as a bring-back to Kansas City game stacks. He also saves some cumulative roster percentage off Mixon and Kamara with a relatively similar projection. Dameon Pierce ($4,800 / 3.4%) stands as the lone viable running back under $5,000. He won’t win any tournaments at his floor, but as an 8-point underdog, if he can get some passing game work over 32-year-old Rex Burkhead, Pierce could steal the slate.
Wide receiver landscape
The story of the slate at wide receiver is value. With so many high point-per-dollar options, it will be important to figure out which ones are worth their roster percentage. Michael Pittman ($5,600 / 10.8%) currently carries the second-highest projected roster percentage, but I would not be surprised to see it reach 25%. He is priced about $1,000 less than he warrants, and he will be featured in the Chalk Talk column. Mike Williams ($6,400 / 11.1%) has the highest projected roster percentage, partly due to the great game environment in which the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves. A.J. Brown ($6,400 / 10.6%) is the last of the three wide receivers with a roster percentage over 10%. As Brown's roster percentage climbs, it will only continue dragging Hurts' roster percentage up.
Wide Receiver Pivot
Even while pivoting, the wide receivers we are targeting are still in the high-value range. Kadarius Toney ($4,100 / 3.3%) should be the most targeted wide receiver for the thinned New York Giants. He is priced in a range that does not immediately stand out, so he may go overlooked. Elijah Moore ($5,100 / 4.7%) is another high-upside option who saves salary for some of the higher-priced running backs or tight ends. He will be without Zach Wilson for Week 1, but Moore was much more efficient with Joe Flacco under center last year. Christian Kirk ($5,100 / 6.4%) is the last value play and is priced the same as Moore. He will function as Jacksonville's number one receiver and should not have much target competition. Any of these three wide receivers can be played together to offer salary relief paired with high ceilings.
Tight End Landscape
We have a few high-profile options at the top of the tight end price range, but this position mostly resembles the wild west in Week 1. No tight end currently projects for a roster percentage of above 6%, allowing freedom to uniquely incorporate them into our stacks.
Tight End Pivot
This week allows us to add our tight ends to our game stacks without adding much to our cumulative roster percentage. Hayden Hurst ($3,300 / 2.6%) fits in well as a low-priced option to pair with Burrow and even multiple Cincinnati receivers. Mahomes promised his offense would not be so condensed this year, but I’m not buying it. Travis Kelce ($6,400 / 3.6%) is cheaper than he will be all season and should receive the most targets of all the Kansas City receivers. Dallas Goedert ($4,500 / 4.4%) is one of the league’s best receiving tight ends and his middling price may leave him overlooked. He is one of the only pairing options with Hurts, so his roster percentage may creep up, but anything under 10% is worthwhile.
Chalk Talk
The term chalk in sports betting refers to the heavily favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is an important part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineups become positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But your lineups can quickly get buried when a player the crowd loves meets his lofty expectations whilet you chose to avoid him.
If you enter multiple lineups, deciding whether to play or pass on chalky players is non-binary. The overall roster percentage of your lineup, how the player correlates to the rest of the lineup, and the size of the tournament you are entering all provide needed context.
Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:
Murray is playing in the highest game total of the week (AZ +5.5, O/U 53.5), so his roster percentage will naturally be high. The Cardinals have multiple receivers battling injuries, which alone does not hurt Murray’s projection, but with a condensed receiving corps, his pass-catchers will also be highly rostered. I recommend not avoiding this game altogether, as it has the chance to blow right past its projected total, but be unique in how you get exposure. Conner and Kelce are both strong options from this game with lower roster percentages.
Taylor in a vacuum is chalk worth trusting. Considering the context of the slate, there is no reason to play him over McCaffrey, and they’re both too expensive to be worth playing together.
Michael Pittman
If Michael Pittman were priced appropriately, he likely makes the top leverage plays as a pivot off Taylor. Unfortunately, DraftKings priced him over $1,000 too low, so he has a chance to be the highest-rostered player of the entire slate. His price puts him close to the free-square category, but all three wide receiver pivot options are worth looking at over Pittman. Try building lineups with Pittman that you like, then swapping Pittman to one of the pivot receiver options while leaving the newly acquired salary relief on the table. If your lineup hits while Kirk, for example, outscores Pittman, you will be vaulted past all similar lineups who played Pittman over Kirk.
Leverage
Leverage refers to players who may benefit at the cost of some of the potentially more popular options. If the more popular options fail, who may be the benefactor? This may be a player from the same team, an opposing team, or a player from a different game who is priced similarly.
Brandin Cooks ($6,300 / 6.1%)
Cooks directly benefits from a run-heavy approach for the Indianapolis Colts, and as an 8-point underdog, he should receive more opportunities than Pittman. Given that Cooks thrives in a game script that would hinder Pittman, Cooks is great leverage at half the roster percentage.
DeVonta Smith ($5,500 / 7.2%)
The more Brown’s roster percentage steams up, the less rostered Smith will be. The field will be hesitant to pair Hurts with two wide receivers, leaving Smith as the odd man out in Eagles stacks. Smith also adds leverage over Pittman at just $100 cheaper. If Pittman fails at his high roster percentage and Smith hits at his low roster percentage, the Smith lineups have a great chance to hop over a large percentage of the field.
Contrarian Plays
Contrarian plays typically hover around 5% rostered. You will need at least one of these players to far surpass their median projections to take down a tournament.
Tyreek Hill ($6,800 / 5.3%)
Hill’s roster percentage historically hovers between 10%-15%. With his change of scenery, it seems the field is taking a wait-and-see approach. Just like with Lance, it is better to be early than late, and Hill has an unmatched ceiling at only $6,800. His projection rivals that of Davante Adams ($8,100 / 6.8%) and Justin Jefferson ($7,700 / 6.1%) but with additional salary relief.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,100 / 3.9%)
St.Brown is a quality run-back option to the highly anticipated Hurts stacks, but he also functions as a low-rostered one-off. His game total sits just under 48.5 but is an early favorite hit the over. If it sneaks into the over 50 points range, St.Brown will rival the likes of Marquise Brown ($6,200 / 6%, but has not yet factored in the Rondale Moore injury) and Kelce in the two higher total games.
Favorite Game-Stack
Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert/Amon-Ra St. Brown
Even with a higher than projected roster percentage, Hurts is worth playing, given his rushing upside paired with his game's ability to shoot out. There are plenty of ways to get unique while still stacking Hurts.
Brown will be the preferred option for Eagles stacks, but Smith is coming off of a promising rookie campaign with Hurts. Look for the two to pick up where they left off last year, with the potential for Brown to start to season getting slowly acclimated to his new team.
Amongst the wild west of tight ends, Goedert stands out as a unique price and unmatched upside under $5,000. His roster percentage will increase as people get comfortable stacking Hurts with cheaper options but he projects to be worth the price of admission.
DAndre Swift ($6,800 / 7.4%) will be the preferred option for this stack, which leaves us pivoting to St.Brown, who would be a steal at his price if he picks up where he left off last season.