Links to similar discussions on other positions:
The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Amari Cooper, Cleveland
Ben Cummins: Amari Cooper is being drafted as a target hog yet he only averaged 6.9 targets per game last season and now joins a Browns team that appears likely to be missing Deshaun Watson for anywhere between 8-17 games. Cooper's price would have to drop multiple rounds for me to consider him.
Gary Davenport: At this point, drafting Cooper inside the top-20 fantasy receivers is either a matter of living in the past or ignoring the present. Yes, Cooper has demonstrated WR1 upside in the past. But it's just that—past. Now, Cooper is playing for a run-first Browns team that has ranked in the Bottom 5 in pass attempts each of the past two seasons. At this point, the most optimistic projection for Deshaun Watson's suspension is eight games—and it could possibly be much longer. Last year in Dallas, Cooper posted his fewest receptions and yardage since 2017—and that was playing on the league's most potent offense in Dallas. With Jacoby Brissett probably running the offense for at least half the year, Cooper's 68/865/8 stat line from 2021 is a pipe dream…and even that barely kept Cooper inside the top-25 in PPR points.
Dave Kluge: Cooper’s price tag as WR20 would be great if Deshaun Watson was presumed to be the Week 1 starter. But he isn’t, and his chances of playing at all this season seem to be slimmer by the day. Cooper was the WR10 his first entire season in Dallas. He was the WR15 the following year. And last season, he was the WR27. Now, at age 28, he goes to a run-first Browns team with no apparent quarterback. It feels as if he’s being drafted awfully close to his ceiling.
Craig Lakins: It's looking more and more like a given that Amari Cooper's quarterback is going to be Jacoby Brissett for much of the 2022 season. While Cooper is the Browns' clear No. 1 target, this offense seems likely to grind it out through their ground game. Given Cooper's tendency to disappear for long stretches at a time, I wouldn't be looking in his direction in the fifth round with much better value still left on the board.
Sam Wagman: Cooper is unfortunate collateral damage from the Watson fallout. He would certainly belong at this ADP if Watson were to play this season, but since it seems like he will be stuck catching passes from Jacoby Brissett at the current time, you have to bump Cooper down some spots. Cooper isn’t the most consistent receiver to begin with on a week-to-week basis but throw in Brissett who is merely an average QB and Cooper could tumble far down the ranks this season. I’m wary at WR20 for Cooper and would be more comfortable ranking him in the 30s.
Christian Williams: Cooper’s arrival in Cleveland came with tons of excitement. His inside-outside skill set is the ideal fit for the Kevin Stefanski offense that has not traditionally been friendly to wideouts. That excitement was largely on the back of competent starting quarterback play, and it’s looking like that may come few and far between for the 2022 Cleveland Browns. Cooper has always been a boom or bust option, but his ADP of WR20 fails to acknowledge that. His 13.5 points per game mark ranked 32nd in 2021 with Dak Prescott at the helm, and volume alone won’t make Cooper a worthwhile selection at that draft position.
Player Receiving 5 Votes
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia
Ben Cummins: A.J. Brown is extremely talented and the kind of player that can make me look stupid for putting him on this list. But he’s being drafted extremely early in a range I’m unlikely to select him. I’m buying Jalen Hurts progressing and improving entering year three but we must consider where he’s improving from. Hurts ranked 32nd in pass touchdowns per game (1.07) and 28th in passing yards per game (209.6) last season. The passing pie in Philadelphia is already smaller than many other teams and Brown also must compete with both Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, two talented teammates. I’d rather target Smith or Goedert at a lower cost if interested in acquiring a piece of this passing offense.
Drew Davenport: It is interesting that Brown's ADP currently sits at WR11 when Brown has yet to have a fantasy finish that high in his three-year career. He's finished as PPR WR21, WR12, and WR34. Now he gets traded from a run-first team to a...run-first team. Unfortunately for Brown, his quarterback situation is arguably worse than it was and now he goes from a team who threw the ball the 7th fewest times in the league to a team that threw it the fewest. Even if the Eagles throw it more Hurts would have to make a huge leap as a passer for Brown to end up in the Top 12 wide receivers to justify his price tag. That seems like far too many red flags to count on Brown as a late second-round or early third-round pick.
Gary Davenport: Was Brown's arrival a big get for the Eagles and great news for Jalen Hurts? Absolutely. Was it good news for Brown's chances of rebounding from last year's injury-marred campaign? Probably not. To his credit, Brown has already shown that he can produce in a run-heavy offense—two years ago, Brown was sixth in PPR fantasy points per game among receivers despite just 106 targets playing for a Titans team that attempted the third-fewest passes in the NFL. The problem is that he could be in an even worse situation in 2022—the Eagles were dead last in pass attempts last season, Jalen Hurts isn't the passer Ryan Tannehill is, and in Nashville, Brown didn't have DeVonta Smith to contend with for targets. A top-12 season is possible, but Brown is being drafted far too often with the expectation that it's probable.
Ryan Weisse: Brown was the WR32 in 2021, WR14 in 2020, and WR32 in his rookie year of 2019. So now, after moving to the lowest passing volume team from a year ago, we are drafting him as a top-12 wide receiver? Fantasy drafters seem to remember the good with Brown every year but forget the bad. He's never started 16 games or caught more than 70 balls. It will take insane efficiency and a lot of touchdowns to make him worth his ADP, and in Philadelphia, that might be hard to come by.
Jason Wood: A.J. Brown has never been a top-10 fantasy receiver in PPR formats, yet he consistently gets drafted as one. The issue isn't talent, it's opportunity. Brown averaged less than 100 targets per season in Tennessee. While the Eagles traded a boatload for him and are paying him $25 million per season, they're also one of the few teams more run-heavy than the Titans. Will they completely revamp their offense with Brown in town? It's possible, but Jalen Hurts has done nothing to prove he can successfully execute a higher-volume passing attack. Unless Brown gets double-digit touchdowns -- which is possible -- he's got a WR2 ceiling but comes at a WR1 price.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans
Jeff Bell: A wholly lost season to injury is the easy way out on Thomas, but the more significant concern is the window when he did play in 2020. His 13.2 PPR points per game from Week 9 to Week 14 ranked him WR30, his current rank. With a new quarterback, a new play-caller, and the 11th overall pick on Chris Olave, it is fair to question if the player who captivated fantasy in 2019 is gone forever. And that is assuming he plays. The idea of drafting him as WR30 is too heavy on the risk side.
Kevin Coleman: The Saints have upgraded their receiver room this off-season, bringing in free agent Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave. On top of these additions, Thomas isn't fully recovered from his off-season ankle surgery which is concerning as it’s the same injury he has dealt with for the past two seasons. When healthy, Thomas is one of the best receivers in football and a top 12 fantasy receiver. The problem is we haven’t seen a healthy Thomas since 2019, and that was with Drew Brees, a Hall of Fame quarterback. As of now, Thomas is a player to avoid in your drafts. Let other managers take the risk.
Jeff Haseley: There is a possibility that Michael Thomas' ankle won't ever be the same which would mean his best years are behind him. According to those in the know, he isn't close to where he was expected to be in terms of his recovery and return to form. The Saints may know how bad it is, which may be why they signed Jarvis Landry and drafted Chris Olave. It's getting to the point where he is a dart throw in the later rounds of your draft long after securing your starting wide receivers. Selecting him in the middle rounds is too much of a risky proposition.
Craig Lakins: There's a very odd stench around Michael Thomas's yet-to-heal ankle injury. After sitting out for the entire 2021 season, he is still unable to participate in the Saints' OTAs. There is still plenty of time for him to progress to full health and get up to speed within the offense, but I have my doubts that he'll be ready for Week 1. The Saints have added Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to compete for targets and they are the ones getting valuable reps with QB Jameis Winston this offseason.
Christian Williams: There’s a real chance that Thomas begins 2022 on the PUP if off-season workout videos are any indication. The lack of explosiveness seen in clips from his rehab are cause for concern, and when he arrives, he will be forced to fabricate chemistry with Jameis Winston. Even if that chemistry is automatic, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry provide the Saints with the most reliable set of wideouts in Thomas’ tenure and will command more targets than Saints WR2s and 3s of the past. Thomas is one of the easiest fades at his ADP of WR31.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo
Kevin Coleman: There has been more talk about Gabriel Davis this offseason than any other player in fantasy. Ever since Davis caught eight passes for 201 yards and four touchdowns in Buffalo's playoff game against Kansas City, many have wondered if that performance can be expected moving forward or if it is an outlier. The fact that Davis plays with perennial QB1 Josh Allen pushes his value up, but his ADP has been creeping up way too high over the off-season. You are essentially paying a premium pick for a player who has failed to be fantasy relevant the past two seasons and will be taking over an Emmanuel Sanders - who was not fantasy-relevant last season - role in the offense. Gabriel Davis is a classic like the player but hate the ADP fantasy asset.
Andy Hicks: Sometimes you wonder what you are missing. With Gabriel Davis, his fantasy ranking is now that of a WR3, despite dropping in production from a solid rookie season. Maybe factoring in third-year improvement is fair, but with a clear elite target in Stefon Diggs, it is hard to see Davis going far beyond his expected ADP. Chances are he disappoints, especially with a sixth-round draft price. Higher upsides with similar downsides are available much later.
Matt Waldman: I'll likely bump Davis up my board to the cusp of WR3-WR4 value, at best. Even so, I'd keep expectations low. Most likely, Davis will be the 3rd or 4th option in the passing offense behind Stephon Diggs, Dawson Knox, and at best, splitting volume with James Cook. There's way too much excitement about Davis due to his playoff performance where his big plays came as the third read against defenses that defended Knox and Diggs first, hoping to reach Josh Allen with pressure before Allen could find Davis. This won't happen weekly in 2022. It might happen monthly. The box score watchers don't factor coverage and game plan context into their analysis enough.
Ryan Weisse: Gabriel Davis is basically A.J. Brown-light. Drafters remember the good but forget the bad. His best games always come at the end of the year—the right time to give the fantasy world hope for the following season. If you look at his first two seasons, Davis has never scored 15 fantasy points before Week 12. In 32 career games, 39% of his career fantasy points have come in just six games played after Week 12. Not enough has changed in Buffalo to make me think that his early-season lull improves this season.
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay
Drew Davenport: If Godwin comes back from his knee injury and produces the final 8-10 weeks of the season he could be an important piece to a fantasy team that takes a chance on him. The problem is that Godwin has to be taken in the sixth round to land him. There are far too many impact players that can be taken at that point in the draft to select a wide receiver who still has to clear health hurdles, may miss a significant chunk of the year, and then must produce when he returns. Sure those things could all line up for Godwin and taking a shot on his talent later in the draft might be a good play, but his ADP hasn't properly adjusted to reflect the risk yet.
Jeff Haseley: Chris Godwin had surgery on his torn ACL in early January. A typical recovery period is at least nine months and potentially more depending on the severity and rehabilitation success. There is talk that he may not be available for the first six weeks of the season if he is placed on the physically unable to perform list. He is too much of a risk to select as your WR2 or even WR3 if he could potentially not play until mid-late October.
Sam Wagman: Godwin is coming off an ACL reconstruction on January 3 in which he also had his MCL worked on. That adds a layer of complication to his recovery timetable. We can expect Godwin to be out until at least October 3 — that’s 9 months from the surgery — but with the PUP list looming and Russell Gage signed for Godwin’s role, the Buccaneers could hold Godwin out until they are comfortable putting him on the field. We have recently heard that the Bucs could even go into November letting him rest up for the stretch run to the playoffs. With all of that on the table, I am clean fading Godwin this season in redraft.
Ryan Weisse: It's interesting to see how drafters have caught up to DeAndre Hopkins and his six-game suspension but not Chris Godwin. Godwin is likely to miss six games while recovering from a late ACL injury but is being drafted 14 spots ahead of Hopkins. Godwin should be a much better asset down the stretch, and you might be able to stash him on your IR, but his ADP still feels high. Even if you just look at the three guys going after him. Courtland Sutton and Allen Robinson received massive upgrades at quarterback, and Darnell Mooney is likely to finish with 150 or more targets this season. So while I see the value in Godwin for a playoff and championship push, that value diminishes if you take him this early in your draft.
DK Metcalf, Seattle
Ben Cummins: Tyler Lockett’s ADP has plummeted with Russell Wilson out of town, and rightfully so. Yet drafters remain bullish on DK Metcalf with the main reasoning being his freakish frame is more suitable to whoever will be throwing him passes in 2022. Still, Metcalf plays for Pete Carroll and an organization committed to running the football and the quality of targets he’ll see will be drastically worse than they were with Wilson. Rumors of Baker Mayfield joining the Seahawks would make Metcalf’s ADP more palatable but for now, he’s a stay away.
Matt Waldman: Metcalf will not see the caliber of targets that Russell Wilson delivered his way and this will lead to tougher catch scenarios. He'll also be playing with quarterbacks who won't be as sophisticated with reading the field. Tyler Lockett is the Seahawk of choice because he can get open in more ways than Metcalf.
Ryan Weisse: Metcalf was a 50/50 weekly prospect with Russell Wilson at quarterback. He was a top-12 wide receiver in half his games and could put up week-winning numbers. The other half, he was a fantasy WR3 or worse. Now, we're dealing with some combination of Drew Lock, Geno Smith, or Baker Mayfield, if we're lucky. Many wide receivers are inconsistent, but none have a worse quarterback situation right now. To make matters worse, Seattle seems like a sure thing to finish 32nd in passing this season. Fewer targets from worse quarterbacks do not bode well for last year's WR14.
Jason Wood: If the Seahawks acquire Jimmy Garoppolo soon, I have no issue with betting on another spectacular year from Metcalf. But otherwise, drafting him this high is unjustifiable. Receivers cannot overcome poor quarterbacking, regardless of their talent. Metcalf has been exceptional at leveraging his speed and nearly-unmatched strength to dominate on vertical routes, but expecting Drew Lock or Geno Smith to hit him in stride as Russell Wilson did is not a wise bet.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco
Anthony Amico: Samuel is coming off of one of the most impressive wide receiver seasons we've seen in a while -- dominating as both a receiver and running back. But now the price is too high. Samuel still has a decorated injury history, and the rushing production may no longer be there after an off-season spat with the team. The Niners also figure to be even more run-heavy in 2022 with Trey Lance at the helm. There are a lot more ways this goes wrong than right.
Sigmund Bloom: Assuming Samuel won't be traded, there are still questions about his 2022 outlook. Will he be used as often at running back after the team drafted Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round? Will he get as many targets and as good quality targets from Trey Lance as he got from Jimmy Garoppolo? His ADP assumes a repeat of his outstanding 2021 campaign, when there are some big ifs to work through for that to happen.
Jeff Haseley: I would be surprised to see Deebo Samuel repeat his lofty dual-threat 2021 numbers this season. While it's definitely possible, there is a big change to the formula that worked so well last season - Trey Lance will be under center. Will Samuel still see the same rushing opportunities in the Lance-led offense? The uncertainty makes me a bit wary of a repeat year. Let's not forget that there are whispers of him potentially holding out. If his ADP drops as a result, he becomes a bargain, but until then, you're paying for him to repeat his numbers from last season.
Sam Wagman: The last season Samuel played a full slate and was a traditional wide receiver was his rookie season, 2019. He had 57 catches for 800 yards and 3 scores. He added 150 rushing yards and 3 more scores on the ground and finished as WR32. I’m not saying that happens this year. But with Samuel pushing back on his rushing attempts this offense and trying to push for a trade presumably due to the usage and his unhappiness with the role, I expect the 49ers will let him move away from that wide-back role. With Trey Lance expected to start as well, I expect some growing pains between the two as Lance was inaccurate in his starts last year. I still expect a top-15 finish from Samuel, just maybe not WR6 overall.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Tyreek Hill, Miami
Drew Davenport: Hill wasn't the same fantasy producer in 2021 as he was in 2020. He had an uncharacteristic nine games with fewer than 15 PPR points last year and scored almost 30% of his fantasy points for the season in two games. He managed a WR6 finish so he is still an elite talent, but his points per game average dropped 3.5 points and now he faces changes going from Kansas City to his new team in Miami. Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel comes from a coaching background that stresses a strong running game, and last year despite some limitations in Kansas City, the Chiefs still attempted the second-most passes in the league. Hill was a beneficiary of that offense with 156 targets and 110 receptions. Of course, all of this buries the lede as the biggest change will be at quarterback. Regardless of anyone's opinion of Tua Tagovailoa, expecting 156 targets AND the same efficiency moving from Patrick Mahomes II to the Dolphins' signal-caller seems overly optimistic. Hill's ADP doesn't leave any room for him to return value.
Jeff Haseley: Tyreek Hill had impressive fantasy numbers in his career thanks to high touchdown volume and above-average air yards in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Can Tua Tagovailoa provide those important details to sustain Hill's elite fantasy success? If so, he will need to take a giant leap forward in 2022 and I'm not sure if he is capable.
Andy Hicks: We’re not in Kansas anymore. With Tyreek Hill moving to Miami, fantasy managers are expecting similar production. That seems impossible with Patrick Mahomes II replaced by Tua Tagovailoa, one of the greatest offensive minds in Andy Reid replaced by a rookie head coach, and a team that had a rhythm for scoring points at will replaced with a team that will need to learn how to gel as a unit. Hill is still a dynamic force and will make those around him better. The only problem is that Hill himself will disappoint.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
Drew Davenport: St. Brown won a lot of titles for people last year with his late-season surge. He was on fire the final five games of the fantasy year averaging 11.4 targets per game. But it is easy to forget that leading up to that game St. Brown was largely forgotten in Detroit. Through 12 weeks last year he was ranked as the PPR WR63 and showed no signs of life. But as attrition mounted in Detroit the targets were funneled towards the Lions rookie. The problem for 2022 is that both Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark have been added to the wide receiver room, and T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift are healthy to start the year. Placing faith in a wide receiver fighting for targets with four other players who are catching passes from Jared Goff is a tenuous position. Maybe St. Brown will be able to differentiate himself, but at his ADP there are better options still on the board.
Andy Hicks: Based on the last six weeks of the 2021 season, Amon-Ra St. Brown would be a great addition to your fantasy roster. This is why you should look forward and not back when you evaluate the 2022 season. St. Brown could easily fall to fifth in the pecking order for targets in Detroit behind free agent acquisition D.J. Chark, first-round rookie Jameson Williams, D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. St. Brown ultimately will need some luck to get anywhere near his draft, meanwhile, the other wide receivers mentioned are being drafted six to seven rounds later and have higher upsides.
Dave Kluge: What Amon-Ra St. Brown did at the end of his rookie season was spectacular. To start the season, he averaged 4.7 targets, 3.5 receptions, and 32 receiving yards per game. Then, after TJ Hockenson and DAndre Swift were both injured, his per-game averages skyrocketed to 11.2 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93 yards, and one touchdown per game. Well, Hockenson and Swift will both be back to start the season. The Lions signed D.J. Chark in free agency. They traded up in the draft to select Jameson Williams. St. Brown could be the fifth pass-catching option on a run-first team that ranked in the bottom half of pace of play last year. The ceiling for St. Brown is alluring, but his sixth-round price tag carries immense risk.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Jerry Jeudy, Denver
Andy Hicks: Once again Jerry Jeudy is being drafted on potential rather than actual production. If his zero touchdown season with an average of 46 yards a game is any guide, he shouldn’t sniff a fantasy roster until much later. A troubling offseason isn’t helping matters. Add in a new coach, a new quarterback and Jeudy being drafted as a borderline WR2 is one of the easiest decisions to pass on in the fifth or sixth round.
Christian Williams: Jeudy’s career has not gone the way most prospect evaluators would have expected, and while the quarterback situation has certainly impacted that reality, it’s worth it to question whether Jeudy is even the second-best wide receiver on his own team. His 8.5 points per game in 2021 ranked 72nd in the league and third on his own team behind Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton. Jeudy drafters are hoping for a meteoric rise with the arrival of Russell Wilson in Denver, and while an uptick in production isn’t unfathomable, finishing at or ahead of his ADP of WR27 feels unattainable.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
Jeff Bell: Since 2000, 24 different receivers have topped 1,000 yards and at least 6 touchdowns in their 10th season or later. Thirteen of those players replicated those numbers twice. Four of those players (Jimmy Smith, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, and Joey Galloway) did it at least three times. Age comes for everyone. The 2021 Chargers showed hints of a changing of the guard toward Mike Williams and gave him a three-year deal worth $60 million following the season. Allen is valued at WR10 after finishing WR11 and with young ascending talent around him, the valuation is aggressive.
Treylon Burks, Tennessee
Matt Waldman: Big, strong, and fast for his size, Burks has work to do against press and zone coverage. He lacks a clear plan in both situations and even his catch-point technique has occasional lapses that can be the difference between good and great. Good luck with the idea he'll earn weekly starter volume with this working against him early in his career. Combined with his struggles with asthma and weight, I want to see Burks prove his value in re-draft leagues before I jump on board.
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona
Jason Wood: DeAndre Hopkins is going to miss the first six games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy. That's to say nothing of his ever-increasing injury risk; he missed six games last year, as well. In 10 games last season, Hopkins finished as WR45 in PPR scoring, yet his ADP this year is higher than that. Even if Hopkins plays the 10 games he's eligible for, there are reasons to think he can't match last year's 8 touchdown catches. Arizona traded for Marquise Brown -- who played college ball with Kyler Murray -- and the receiving corps is deep beyond him. Hopkins has been a great player, but he's on the downslope of his impressive career.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh
Sigmund Bloom: Johnson was a volume play last year thanks to Ben Roethlisberger, who retired after the season. Mitchell Trubisky is set to begin the season as the starter barring an incredible summer from Kenny Pickett, but no matter who is starting at quarterback, the pass offense will take a hit. It's difficult to see Johnson as anything but an underachiever in this situation.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle
Craig Lakins: Tyler Lockett's current ADP isn't outrageous as he's only being drafted in the 8th round, but I just don't see a path to success for him this year. With Russell Wilson in Denver, Lockett will no longer have perfectly placed moon-balls delivered to him regularly. Considering the Seahawks were already in the bottom half of the NFL in passing rate, it's hard to imagine that percentage improving with Drew Lock or Geno Smith at the helm and DK Metcalf should still command the lion's share of the targets. Pete Carroll proved he wants to pound the rock by drafting RB Kenneth Walker III with the 41st overall pick in this year's draft. I'd be comfortable taking a chance on Lockett if he fell to the double-digit rounds.
Terry McLaurin, Washington
Jeff Bell: The idea of Terry McLaurin is better than the reality of Terry McLaurin. Through three seasons he has one WR2 seasonal finish, WR20 in 2020. He is currently in a holdout situation and even if he reports he enters a Carson Wentz-led offense that just spent the 16th pick on Jahan Dotson. WR19 is slightly too rich.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago
Anthony Amico: This is simply not a passing game to invest in. Justin Fields looks awful in his 2021 opportunities, and early indications out of Chicago are that the Bears would like to remain a run-centric offense in 2022. Mooney averaged four fewer targets and four fewer fantasy points per game with Fields under center, and it is likely he wouldn't be getting drafted nearly as high had those splits paced out over more of the season.
Devante Parker, New England
Sigmund Bloom: The Patriots pass offense is going to spread the ball around to five different wide receivers. It's unfair to be too critical of any 12th-round pick, but Parker is going to have to adjust to a new contract and may not be a full-time player if second-round pick Tyquan Thornton is ready to take some snaps as an outside receiver. There are a lot better picks available late at wide receiver than Parker.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City
Sigmund Bloom: The mystery of which (if any) Chiefs wide receiver is the one to have on your team this year is one the toughest questions to take on in fantasy this year. If you are going to take a swing at that pinata in your draft, going with the most expensive of the four possible answers is probably not the right approach, especially when the Chiefs paid Marquez Valdes-Scantling more than three times what they paid Smith-Schuster.
Kadarius Toney, NY Giants
Christian Williams: It is unclear what the Giants are doing at wide receiver. Sterling Shepard will reportedly be ready to return from his torn Achilles by training camp (though a PUP candidate in any case), and Joe Schoen spent a Day 2 pick on Wan’Dale Robinson in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Giants will likely live in 11-personnel with Brian Daboll calling the shots if his time in Buffalo is any indication, and Kenny Golladay and Shepard will undoubtedly be two of the three wideouts in such sets. Toney’s ideal role is out of the slot where both Shepard and Robinson should live, as well. Toney has high upside in PPR but remains one of the riskiest coin flips at his current ADP of WR47 considering the lack of clarity in his usage under the new regime.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami
Dave Kluge: It’s tough to make an argument against a receiver coming off 104 receptions and 1,015 yards as a rookie. Thinking Waddle is overvalued has much more to do with his cost than his actual talent. The Dolphins committed $120M to Tyreek Hill this offseason. And Hill does everything Waddle can do but better. Tua Tagovailoa still has some question marks surrounding him. Thinking he can prop up two top-15 fantasy receivers is a tall ask. Waddle should put up respectable numbers in his sophomore campaign, but returning value as a third or fourth-round pick will be difficult.
Mike Williams, LA Chargers
Jason Wood: Mike Williams may be one of the most overrated players in the NFL. He didn't crack the Top 20 in any of his first four seasons, and last year -- thanks to Justin Herbert -- he "broke out" to the tune of a WR14 finish. While that's valuable, it's hardly indicative of an elite option worthy of an early-round priority. It's not clear Josh Palmer isn't a better player; he's certainly a more well-rounded route runner. If Williams can approach double-digit touchdowns as he did last year, he could match his ADP, but there's almost no path to exceeding it unless Keenan Allen misses a majority of the season.
