T.J. Hockenson Is a League Winner

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A year ago, we told you to make T.J. Hockenson a draft priority. The immensely talented Detroit Lion was coming off a forgettable rookie season, and fickle draftniks were treating him like a bust. We showed you the historical performances of the league’s all-time best tight ends and noted their rookie seasons looked eerily like Hockenson’s.

Hopefully, you heeded our advice last year. Hockenson was the 14th tight end drafted, on average. He finished as the No. 5 fantasy tight end behind only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas, and Robert Tonyan Jr.

Top 10 Fantasy Tight Ends, 2020

While last year’s TEX ranking more than paid for the draft-day cost, it’s just the tip of the iceberg. This is the year Hockenson goes from every-week fantasy starter to fantasy league winner.

Only Two Tight Ends were Difference Makers in 2020

You'll note only Travis Kelce (312.8) and Darren Waller (280.5) meaningfully exceeded the baseline in the table above. Four tight ends scored between 170 and 180 PPR points, and another ten players scored at least 140 points. On a per-game basis, the tight end pool was deep but flat.

Top 20 Fantasy Tight Ends, Points-per-Game, 2020

George Kittle joins the elite camp on a per-game basis – he missed half the season but was his usual self (15.6 fantasy points), and Mark Andrews moves into the Top 5. But beyond those four, it’s tightly bunched from No. 5 Logan Thomas (11.1 points) to No. 21 Tyler Higbee (8.4 points). You might argue there’s a big difference between 11.1 points and 8.4 points per game, but that's within the statistical noise in a weekly head-to-head setting. A touchdown catch vaults the 8.4 point-per-game player into a Top 5 finish, while the lack of a touchdown drops the 11.1 point player out of the Top 12 for the week. It’s a game of inches.

Hockenson Will Rise Out of the Crowded Pack

1. Hockenson is as skilled as any tight end in the league
2. He’s entering his prime
3. New head coach Dan Campbell is a former tight end and tight ends coach
4. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn values tight ends in the passing game
5. Detroit will field a top-10 offensive line
6. New quarterback Jared Goff loves throwing to short- and intermediate routes
7. The Lions wide receivers are uninspiring

Elite Traits and Entering his Prime

While Kyle Pitts became the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history this April, he’s not as well-rounded a player as Hockenson was coming into the league. Pitts is, potentially, a devastating mismatch as a receiver but isn’t a committed or punishing blocker or pass protector. Fantasy managers may not care about blocking, but the best way to ensure your tight end sees a hefty snap count is picking one who excels as a blocker. Hockenson is an elite pass protector, a devastating lead blocker in the run game, and happens to be a complete receiver capable of gaining separation on linebackers or outmuscling defensive backs. The tight end position is among the most difficult to master, and Year 3 is traditionally when the best at the position bloom into their sustainably elite forms.

Coaches Favor the Tight End Position

New head coach Dan Campbell played tight end for a decade in the NFL before joining the coaching ranks and then spent most of his coaching career as a tight ends position coach. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn was the Chargers head coach and ran a system focused on the tight end – both in Antonio Gates’ waning years and Hunter Henry’s emerging years. Unfortunately, Hunter Henry was so often injured that the box scores may not fully encapsulate how important tight ends are in Lynn’s philosophy.

Offensive Line Should be Excellent

Pro Football Focus ranks the Lions as the 10th best offensive line in football, thanks in part to the addition of rookie Penei Sewell, who steps in immediately at right tackle.

• LT Taylor Decker – Graded out as a top-12 tackle last year, as both a run blocker and pass protector
• LG Jonah Jackson – The least compelling of the projected starters but held his own as a rookie starter in 2020
• C Frank Ragnow – One of the two or three best centers in football
• RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai – A seasoned veteran with starting experience for playoff offenses at every spot on the line
• RT Penei Sewell – The seventh overall pick in the draft and one of the highest-graded tackles in the last five years

Jared Goff is a Stylistic Fit

The Lions' new general manager Brad Holmes made a seismic move when he traded long-time starter Matthew Stafford to the Rams (Holmes’ former team) in exchange for Jared Goff and three early draft picks. While it’s unclear whether Goff is the long-term solution in Detroit, there’s no doubt he’ll be the starter in 2021. Goff’s career is enigmatic. He looked like a colossal bust under Jeff Fisher but morphed into an effective field general with Sean McVay – helping lead the Rams to a Super Bowl. But Goff’s physical limitations finally were too much for McVay, and now Goff has to re-establish his reputation without McVay’s watchful eye. It’s unclear whether Goff will be good in Detroit, but we know he excels in the short- and intermediate zones – where Hockenson dominates.

Who Else is Going to be a Target Hog?

There’s a lot we don’t know about the Lions offensive system, given the wholesale coaching turnover. But Campbell’s experience in New Orleans and Lynn’s tenures in Buffalo and Los Angeles hint at a balanced offensive attack. Assuming, of course, the Lions defense can make stops. Otherwise, the Lions will be in a lot of pass-first, catch-up situations. Regardless of the run/pass ratio, it’s realistic to expect at least 550 pass attempts. Who else on the roster is talented enough to warrant 100+ targets?

Here are the wide receivers projected to make the final roster:

• Tyrell Williams – Head faked everyone in Year 2 with 69 receptions, 1,059 yards, and 7 touchdowns but has looked pedestrian since. He has less than 70 targets in each of the last three seasons.
• Breshad Perriman – Playing for his fifth team in six seasons, Perriman has never finished as a top-40 fantasy receiver. His career-best marks are 36 receptions, 645 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He has never had 70+ targets.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown – Rookie St. Brown is a polished route runner with good hands but lacks the top-end athleticism and strength typical of an above-average starting NFL receiver. Historically, fourth-rounders aren’t good bets to play significant roles in Year 1.
• Quintez Cephus – A developmental player forced into a role as a rookie. His 35 targets last season are a good starting point for projecting his 2021 totals.
• Kalif Raymond – Primarily a special teams contributor.