Sunday Morning Update
Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.
Sunday Morning Update 11:00 EST
First and foremost, I forgot to thank all of you who have been loyal to Footballguys and especially this article. I meant to write something very sappy, but we'll save that for another time. It's been very cool to see the community that we've built around words typed on a computer. I hope everyone has a great holiday season. This week's article was a little short, but it was the first time we've had a full family get together in over two years, so hopefully you'll forgive me for the brevity this week.
Two big pieces of news that have occurred that have changed the lineup:
1) Tyreek Hill will be active on this slate. With no Travis Kelce, Hill shoots up the board into the #2 overall play ahead of Justin Jefferson, but just behind Cooper Kupp as he should be heavily targeted in this game.
2) Mike Williams is out for the Chargers. This one is interesting as it should mean more heavy volume for Keenan Allen and Justin Jackson. The question this week is whether to play Justin Herbert or Keenan Allen as it is really difficult to play both with a lineup construction below. This week, I have Stafford and Herbert neck and neck in terms of who is the top quarterback, so I'm going to pivot to Stafford to be able to afford the lineup construction. My worry with Herbert is while the touchdowns should be there, how much throwing he'll need to do against Houston which may limit his upside a little bit in this game. I anticipate the Vikings Rams game to be a shootout as the Vikings are allowing the third-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
- QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,900
- RB Ronald Jones II, TB, $5,400
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,500
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,800
- WR Tyreek Hill, KC, $8,700
- WR Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,700
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex RB Justin Jackson, LAC, $5,400
- TD Cincinnati, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.
- LA Chargers (at Houston) 28 points
- Tampa Bay (at Carolina) 26.5 points
- LA Rams (at Minnesota) 26 points
- Kansas City (vs Pittsburgh) 25.75 points
- Philadelphia (vs NY Giants) 25 points
Format:
We are going to merge the two formats that we have been testing. We will still have the player by player charts that have become popular, but also add in the player charts for all players as some people liked to use those as well. Please continue to provide feedback on what you like and don’t like about this article. Knotts@footballguys.com or on twitter.com/devinknottsfbg
Week 15 Recap
Week 15 was an absolute killer. Moving up from Aaron Rodgers to Kyler Murray in the Sunday Morning Update seemed like the right play at the time, but it was anything but that as Murray and the Cardinals were absolutely dominated by the Detroit Lions in a game they were seemingly never even competitive in one of the biggest upsets in the NFL this season. It was the old saying of trusting your gut, which I failed to do as Aaron Rodgers was my top quarterback play last week and felt that going with either Murray or Allen on Sunday morning was safer.
The rationale wasn’t terrible actually as the thinking was to move off of Tee Higgins down to DeVante Parker, which Parker outscored Higgins, and got me close to the cash line in 50/50’s, but the lineup just fell a little bit short.
The other mistake that was made was playing Devonta Freeman. I hereby vow that as long as I do this article, Devonta Freeman will never be in another lineup no matter how well he should perform. Freeman has not run for over 100 yards since 2017, is not a running back that can be trusted in cash game formats and at this point in his career his carries are unpredictable at best. Game script can take some of the blame there, but he’s just not a good running back.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
This week is an absolute disaster: Here’s what we know so far:
- Austin Ekeler will be out with Covid, Justin Jackson will get the start against Houston.
- Speaking of Houston, they currently have 21 players on the Covid list and will be a complete mess on the defensive side of the ball.
- Andy Dalton and Justin Fields will both miss this game which means Nick Foles will start for the Chicago Bears against the Seahawks.
- Tampa Bay will be without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette this week. They do get Antonio Brown back from suspension, and Ronald Jones II will start at the running back position.
- Lamar Jackson appears to be doubtful to play this week with an ankle injury. Tyler Huntley appears like he will play, but did miss Friday’s practice with an illness
- Both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are on the Covid list and are likely doubtful for this game. If one of them were to clear, they would be tremendous plays against this Pittsburgh defense.
- Dalvin Cook is out this week due to being on the Covid list and being unvaccinated. Alexander Mattison will get the start for the Vikings.
- Rhamondre Stevenson will miss this week due to being on the Covid list which means
- The Bills will be without Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis this week due to being on the Covid list which should open up additional opportunity for Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and possibly the running game in Devin Singletary
Strategy Thoughts: Really Difficult Week Due to Easy Pricing
Let’s talk business for a second here. When you right an article covering a sport for a website that has a subscription, you’re hoping that people 1) Gain entertainment for their dollar 2) Provide quality analysis and advice that people see value in so that they continue to subscribe which can often lead to some sites giving an overconfident buzzwords such as “lock of the week”, “guarantee winner”, “can’t lose”. You get the point.
So how does this relate to this week? Every site is going to talk about how easy this week is on FanDuel, but the reality is that it’s easy to build a lineup, but difficult to get an edge this week. If it is easy for everyone, then gaining an edge compared to your opponents is extremely difficult. We are likely talking about 2 vs 2 or 3 vs 3 matchups where it is picking the right quarterback or defense. The edge is very, very small this week. The only way that it may not be is if Najee Harris somehow becomes popular, which seems like a bad play this week against Kansas City’s defense who has a reputation of being a poor defense but have been playing well as of late.
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Quarterback |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
22.6 |
$8,400 |
This is a weird one as typically we completely avoid quarterbacks who are 10 point favorites or more against awful offenses simply because of the blowout and lack of volume potential. That's not the case with Herbert as he has thrown for 3 touchdowns or more in every game that the Chargers have won by seven points or more while also topping 275 yards in two of those three games. |
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2 |
20.7 |
$7,900 |
If you're looking for a game to be a shootout this week, it will almost certainly be the Rams and Vikings as both offenses have tremendous firepower and their defenses leave something to be desired. On the season, Minnesota is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the most to opposing wide receivers. Over the last three weeks, the Vikings have allowed 296 and 3 touchdowns to Jared Goff, 308 and 3 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger, and 285 yards and a touchdown to Justin Fields. Stafford is a significantly better quarterback on a significantly better offense than all three of those guys and should come out this week and have a tremendous game. |
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3 |
22.8 |
$7,700 |
Jalen Hurts is the wildcard on this slate. While Hurts looked better throwing the football last week, his value comes as primarily a running quarterback. Hurts has rushed for two or more touchdowns in 4 of his last 11 games while rushing for 0 touchdowns in the other 7 games, so it is entirely hit or miss with him. The Giants shut down Hurts back in Week 12 holding him to 14/31 for just 129 yards while he did add 77 rushing yards it amounted to just 9.9 FanDuel points. He's too risky on a week where you don't need the savings. |
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4 |
22.5 |
$8,500 |
Josh Allen is in a bit of a weird spot this week, as we can easily afford him, and he's likely going to be popular based off of his name, but is going to be a fade this week based on his history with the vaunted Patriots pass defense. Outside of a Week 16 2020 performance in which he threw for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns, Allen has struggled against the Patriots in his five other games averaging just 175 yards passing while throwing more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). Since being embarassed back in Week 6, the Patriots defense has essentially been unstoppable against the pass as they have allowed just 157 passing yards per game with more interceptions per game (1.8) than touchdowns (0.9). Expect this to be a very difficult matchup for Allen this week. |
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Running Back |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
15.3 |
$5,500 |
This is a simple mis-price by FanDuel, as there is no way that Alexander Mattison even if Dalvin Cook is active should be $5,500 on the off chance that he becomes a late scratch due to injury. This week it is Covid, but Mattison has been outstanding in the three games without Dalvin Cook as he has 22 or more carries in all three games, topping 90 yards in each game while averaging 5.3 receptions. He is an absolute must play on this slate |
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2 |
12.9 |
$5,800 |
The top three running backs are pretty clear this week. For Jones, you're getting a running back who really will be the only running back in town with Le'Veon Bell behind him who was just added to the roster less than a week ago, and Ke'shawn Vaughn who the Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians called out for needing to make plays. We've seen what Jones can do last season as he had three 20+ carry performances topping 100 yards in all three, and averaging 139 yards per game. With the Buccaneers being a 10 point favorite and having the best offensive line in football, expect a lot of volume to Jones this week. |
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3 |
12.8 |
$5,900 |
We hinted it at it in the injury news, but Houston's defense is completely ravaged with Covid, as they are going to be without nine defensive starters this week and their entire front seven. The Texans tried to move this game out, however were told no by the NFL. With no Austin Ekeler this week, Jackson is the most talented running back on this roster and should see a significant amount of time as Joshua Kelley has not proven he is an NFL quality running back. Jackson looked good last week rushing for 86 yards on 13 carries. |
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4 |
14.9 |
$6,600 |
With Nick Foles starting at quarterback this week, the Bears should look to continue to expand David Montgomery's role in this offense as we've seen the last two weeks. Montgomery has really stepped up in the passing game as of late as he has 22 targets over his last three games. He's not the most flashy running back, but facing a bad Seattle defense that does not have much to play for this week, Montgomery is a solid play on this slate. |
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5 |
14.7 |
$8,000 |
There is a ton to love about James Robinson facing a Jets defense that has allowed nearly every running back to have great games against them as they've allowed 25 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. However, Robinson comes in 5th here simply because of the price and the inconsistency that Darrell Bevell has shown in trusting Robinson even though a lot of that blame has gone to Urban Meyer. Robinson has not topped 18 carries this season, and while he should do that this week, paying $8,000 for a running back who hasn't produced this season just seems too high of a price with all the value on the board. |
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Wide Receiver |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
20.2 |
$9,800 |
Paying $9,800 for Kupp is a tough pill to swallow, but with the lack of top end options along with all of the value, he is the clear cut top cash game play this week. |
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2 |
14.9 |
$7,000 |
Antonio Brown is the only player that Tampa Bay has left in their wide receiving group after Chris Godwin is out for the season and Mike Evans will miss this week. Brown returns from suspension this week and is a very affordable $7,000 on the team that is projected to score the second most points on this slate. Brown was very consistent before injury/suspension having 7 receptions or more in his final three games prior to injury. |
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3 |
16.2 |
$8,400 |
Justin Jefferson has been outstanding this season and should be in a shootout of a game this week against the Rams. In a week where because of the running backs you can essentially take whatever wide receiver that you want, ensuring you have quality receiver which Jefferson is the clear cut number two option on this slate in terms of overall skill. |
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4 |
13.1 |
$7,100 |
Renfrow is coming off of arguably his worst game of the season in a weird low scoring matchup against Cleveland. However, the Raiders should have a difficult time running the ball this week against the Broncos who are a top-10 run defense this season, so expect a heavy dosage of Renfrow out of the slot. He's also one of the best red zone route running technicians we've seen in a very long time. |
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5 |
14.2 |
$7,700 |
Allen is likely not a cash game play, but is a great GPP hedge against Justin Jackson. We know that the Chargers are going to score points in this game as we discussed all the issue the Texans are facing with Covid, but the question is how will they score points. If they come out and go with a pass heavy approach. Allen had a 16 catch 145 yard performance last season when Austin Ekeler was out. |
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Tight End |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
11.40 |
$5,900 |
The Eagles have leaned heavily on Dallas Goedert late as they've simplified the offense for Jalen Hurts which has paid significant dividiends. Goedert now has two consecutive games with over 100 yards. Players who are mis-priced because of a big Monday or in this case Tuesday performance are typically ones that we want to target and at $5,900, Goedert is $1,000 too cheap. |
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2 |
13.70 |
$8,000 |
Edit: Tyler Huntley has been placed on the Covid list. This removes Mark Andrews from contention as a play this week.There's a lot to love about Mark Andrews in this game as with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, he's looked like the best tight end in football. Over his last two games, Andrews has averaged 10.5 receptions, 125 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the price reflects that as at $8,000 he's incredibly expensive and while pricing is easy this week, you'll have to make a decision between him or Justin Jefferson. |
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3 |
12.90 |
$6,700 |
Gronkowski is going to be popular this week as with no Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the targets have to go somewhere in this offense particularly when the Buccaneers get inside the Red Zone. While Gronk had a poor performance last week with just 2 receptions for 29 yards, he did have a staggering 11 targets which is now five consecutive games with 8 or more targets. The only concern here is that if we are targeting to play Ronald Jones II and Antonio Brown, taking Gronkowski here feels like too many Buccaneers especially with Goedert and Andrews who seem to have a higher floor than Gronk. |
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Team Defense |
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Rank |
Player |
Projection |
Salary |
Comment |
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1 |
Atlanta |
9.5 |
$3,800 |
With all of the Covid issues that are currently underway, taking a defense against the worst quarterback on this board appears to be the way to go. Tim Boyle has not shown that he is an NFL caliber quarterback as he was incredibly overmatched earlier this season against Cleveland throwing for just 77 yards and two interceptions. With D'Andre Swift still not 100%, this should be a game of opportunity for Atlanta. |
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2 |
Cincinnati |
9.5 |
$3,500 |
The Ravens will be without both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley this week leaving Josh Johnson as the likely starter this week. Johnson looked capable in his one start this season for the Jets, but historically the 35 year old veteran has struggled in his spot starts as he has 15 career interceptions and only 11 touchdowns. He also has a fumbling problem as he's fumbled 7 times on 313 career attempts. |
LINEUPS-
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH - (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 135.2)
- QB Justin Herbert, LAC, $8,400
- RB Ronald Jones II, TB, $5,400
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,500
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,800
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,400
- WR Antonio Brown, TB, $7,000
- TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, $5,900
- Flex RB Justin Jackson, LAC, $5,400
- TD Atlanta, $3,800
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – FBG Optimal Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 136.5)
- QB Jalen Hurts, PHI, $7,700
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,600
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,500
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,800
- WR Keenan Allen, $7,700
- WR Antonio Brown, TB, $7,000
- TE Rob Gronkowski, TB, $6,700
- Flex RB Justin Jackson, LAC, $5,400
- TD Cincinnati, $3,500
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone!
