The Gut Check No.509: The 2020 Running Back Draft Guide Supreme

Photo: USA Today Sports

This article is about a 24-minute read.

I have a history with running backs. My first fantasy team included second-year runner, Terrell Davis as my third-round pick. Rookie Corey Dillon? Drafted him, too. How about taking rookie Edgerrin James in the first round for the championship? It wasn't great value, but it was a legendary call in my local league back in those days.

And it wasn't just the early picks. Maurice Jones-Drew and his 1,377 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns was a league-winner for me in an industry auction for the bid of a $1. UDFA rookie Fred Lane and his 826 yards and 7 touchdowns is worth name-dropping, too. I was all over Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook early on.

Then I began the Rookie Scouting Portfolio publication. For the past 16 years, I warned you about prospects who were celebrated for as athletes but needed work as running backs—Darren McFadden, C.J. Spiller, Bishop Sankey, and Andre Williams. Meanwhile, I touted runners like Marshawn Lynch and Nick Chubb as equal or greater talents to the likes of Adrian Peterson and Saquon Barkley.

I didn't let you down about surprising early-round picks like Ray Rice, Matt Forte, and Joseph Addai, and I didn't let you be scared away from the overly dour pre-draft outlooks that analysts had with them.

You were cautioned not to immediately count on Tevin Coleman, Marlon Mack, and Kenyan Drake but if you gave them time, they could pay dividends. You were encouraged to be more bullish about Jordan Howard, LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, and Joseph Addai. Le'Veon Bell and Dalvin Cook.

And, there were the deep sleepers who helped you in a pinch when called upon: Boston Scott, Bo Scarbrough, Jerome Harrison, Justin Jackson, Zac Stacy, Joique Bell, Karlos Williams, Tim Hightower, and Spencer Ware.

Many scoffed at these takes. Most are now subscribers to the RSP.

While I've had my share of misses, when it comes to identifying the value of running backs in the fantasy industry and telling you the 'why' behind it,...

Let's put this knowledge to worthwhile use and give Footballguys' subscribers my personal guide to 2020 Running Backs for re-draft formats.

I'll recommend the best options from every part of the draft and even give you the lesser-known guys to monitor on the waiver wire and during training camp in this crazy COVID-19 environment where knowing about as many potentially helpful backs as possible will prove beneficial.

With this information, you can formulate a draft plan around running backs regardless of your strategy, including an Upside-Down/Do-the-Opposite/Zero-RB approach that I'll cover in the final segment of this article.

An Explanation of Value

I'll be providing a calculated value of players with average draft positions (ADPs) from the early and middle rounds of fantasy drafts. The value is the difference between my overall ranking of the player based on my projections of his fantasy points and his ADP as of August 1.

A negative number means the player is underrated by that number of picks. For instance, James Conner is -30, meaning I believe Conner is underrated by 30 picks and you're getting a player valued 2.5 rounds lower than he should.

A positive number means that player is overrated. Joe Mixon's value is 23, which means he's overrated by nearly two rounds in 12-team formats (more soon as to why I have this stance for this talented player).

As we get deeper into the draft, the variation of where players are taken becomes greater so value won't be as vital as it is in the first 7-11 rounds and even within that range, the room for greater variation should be wider

What About...

The players left off this list? They're not my favorites but that doesn't mean they are bad picks (Miles Sanders and Austin Ekeler, for example) unless they are on my No-Fly List. So far, that list includes nine backs:

1. Jerick McKinnon
2. Rashaad Penny
3. Keshawn Vaughn
4. Sony Michel
5. DAndre Swift
6. Mark Ingram
7. Devin Singletary
8. Aaron Jones

And, yes, I still have Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the No-Fly List because he's going to earn a top-15 selection in many leagues and I think he's a low-end RB2 in value even without Damien Williams playing this year.

I've listed some of these options from the No-Fly List and placed an asterisk next to their names. These players may be on my No-Fly List for traditional draft plans but not the DTO/UDD/0-RB plan.

And the Players in Bold?

These are players I'd reach more than a round to acquire and use them as touchpoints to formulate a draft plan around.

Rounds 1-3

Safest Values Round 1

Obviously, I'd take any of the backs in this tier. If you have one of the first five picks in your fantasy draft and you're set on taking runners in the early rounds, these are the safest five on the board.

Best Values Rounds 1-3

As you can see, there are 7 backs I highly recommend during the first three rounds and 11 that are safe plays. Whether it is 2-3 backs, one back and top talent at receiver and tight end, or three backs in a row, you can approach the opening round of your draft multiple ways and earn a good foundation for your team build with the two charts above.

Rounds 4-7

Unless you're undertaking the DTO/UDD/0RB approach, the number of running backs that I like during these four rounds is much smaller than the opening three. And if you're taking the aforementioned approach, don't let that I just said scare you because you won't need to learn as hard on your running backs to build a contender.

You should begin worrying less about calculated Value category with players after the sixth round. Some players you should value more based on their talent and potential if certain conditions are met (see Kareem Hunt and J.K. Dobbins below) than my projected ranking based on fantasy points if those conditions don't occur.

Rounds 4-7

Taylor and Mostert are should deliver RB2 production this year. Taylor may start slow and finish as an RB1 whereas Mostert will be more consistent and also has RB1 upside. Ingram will help you early in the year but be prepared for his value to drop by midseason, so if you can deal with that for back take as early as the late fourth or early fifth round then fine. My recommendation is to avoid, but there are ways to make it work if you pair him with Dobbins. Plus, there's always the possibility that Dobbins falters in some way and Ingram delivers another RB1-caliber season at a significant discount.

While Dobbins is a nice pick for league-winning upside, Hunt's value is too high to recommend a non-starter in the sixth round unless you can start three backs every week and then Hunt's upside makes it logical.

Jones improved last year to the point that he's a competent starting runner with additional developmental upside. He's a competent receiver, a powerful runner, and he has explosive acceleration and deep speed. Last year, he demonstrated improvement with processing the blocking scheme, setting up blocks, and finding cutbacks.

If Jones can improve his reading of linebackers and safeties as he's processing the box (the number of defenders within five yards of the line of scrimmage), he could take another step towards RB1 territory. Jones has the surrounding talent, the scheme, and the quarterback to improve upon last year's production and there's no reason it shouldn't happen.

This includes LeSean McCoy, who is there to provide a veteran presence to help the locker room develop as a whole as well as deliver redundancy as an every-down back if Jones gets hurt. No team wants to lean on McCoy has an every-down back at this point and he'll likely split opportunities with Dare Ogunbowale who has not proven himself a worthwhile runner but has shown skill as a receiver.

Jones is essentially a higher-upside Sony Michel in terms of health, efficiency between the tackles, and greater volume as a receiver. Ogunbowale and McCoy will be a James White-Rex Burkhead combination but because Jones doesn't need his touches managed, he'll earn more targets than Michel. This means fewer targets for Ogunbowale and McCoy in the White-Burkhead roles. McCoy also has an opportunity to earn most of the carries because of Ogunbowale's deficiencies as a runner.

This leaves the talented but COVID-positive rookie, KeShawn Vaughn on the bench this year and his ADP is way too high.

Rounds 8-11

At this point, my fantasy points production and the Value category shouldn't be followed closely at all. We're entering the portion of the draft were upside carries equal to greater weight when deciding among those in the player pool.

You should also be less picky about your running backs because while you're hoping they can exceed expectations, you're picking them at a point of the draft where you expect them to help you as a flex-play or a bye-week option based on matchups unless you're going with the DTO/UDD/0RB approach and even then, you're taking in bulk as opposed to being surgical.

Most drafters can get three of these backs from the list if they plan accordingly. If you decide you absolutely want a player who can contribute now, Michel, Cohen, Breida, and Coleman can be are players to consider in rounds eight and nine.

Rounds 12-15

Most of these players will see the field every week and a few will have a significant role as a contributor. Some may do little until a starter gets hurt but their upside makes them worth a roster spot.

Rounds 16-20

There are as many players without draftable ADPs in 20-round formats that I like as much as the options in this tier. Still, I would begin with this tier of players in bold before reaching for the players in bold for the next tier.

Free Agents for the Waiver Wire

It's always worth knowing how many proven free agents at a position are available as free agents. The term "proven," is different for a free agent than a draftable player. In this sense, a proven free agent is a player who has shown productivity on film and it doesn't matter as much of it was during the preseason or in actual games.

Most of the players I've placed in bold have proven they can deliver fantasy production in at least a handful of games. Most of them are No.3 backs competing for the No.2 role or will be used extensively in at least a committee with the No.2 back if the starter gets hurt.

Monitor These Options in Camp

Because the pandemic's grip on the U.S. will lead to a lot of players missing extended periods of time if the NFL plays a full season, it's important to consider players who could be on the expanded practice squads this fall and may need to fill-in for starters or contributors at some point.

• Tyson Williams, Baltimore: A big back coming off a September ACL tear who could earn a role at some point based on the pandemic.
• Jonathan Ward, Arizona: An excellent receiver with speed and a determined running style.
• Jacques Patrick, Cincinnati: A 230-pound back signed to a deal after a successful XFL campaign, Patrick has excellent quickness and receiving skills.
• Rico Dowdle, Dallas: A runner with a lot of qualities that made Le'Veon Bell a top producer, Dowdle's lack of durability hurt his draft stock.
• Darrius Anderson, Dallas: A talent similar to Jerome Harrison, Anderson has the burst to earn yardage in chunks.
• Sewo Olonilua, Dallas: Listed as a fullback, Olonilua was Anderson's teammate at TCU. He's a big halfback with scatback feet but must use his size better. Promising.
• Jordan Chunn, Dallas: If Chunn beats out Anderson and/or Olonilua, he'll be a steady option of called upon. He's a smart runner who runs hard.
• Scottie Phillips, Houston: A good pass protector with a low center of gravity who ran well from a spread system and quicker than fast.
• Devine Ozigbo, Jacksonville: The former Saint UDFA showed some cutback skill and interior running talent at Nebraska.
• John Hilliman, New York Giants: A feature back in terms of size and quickness. He had up-and-down moments after making the team as a rookie in 2019.
• Elijah Holyfield, Philadelphia: Excellent burst but he runs out of speed after 20-25 yards. He's a hard-running, second-year back.
• J.J. Taylor, New England: A scatback who isn't as big as Tarik Cohen but held up well in Arizona.
• Kerrith Whyte, Pittsburgh: A second-year back with 4.3-speed in the 40-yard dash who performed well as Devin Singletary's FAU teammate and showed vision and processing speed in limited time as a Steeler. I thought he was more impressive than Snell for the time he was on the field.
• JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco: A scatback with Ahmad Bradshaw's dimensions and style. A good check-down receiver with promise as a contributor one day.
• Salvon Ahmed, San Francisco: He'll compete with Hasty but he's not as refined or as sudden of a player.
• DeeJay Dallas, Seattle: A physical player with enough burst and contact balance to perform if he shores up inconsistencies as a pass protector.
• Raymond Calais, Tampa: Big-time speed, but not an excellent contact-runner.
• Khari Blasingame, Tennessee: The Titans' fullback is a 'tweener with receiving skills who might be the only option between the tackles to sub for Derrick Henry well.

I'll be profiling players like these at every skill position during the season on Friday's in a new weekly column titled, "The Replacements," so you can know whether to add-and-start, preemptively add, or monitor as we learn about starters who test positive for COVID-19.

A Strategic Overview Based on the Analysis Above

This year, I'm a proponent of taking running backs early. You should leave the first three rounds with two backs with top-15 potential at their position and a WR1 with elite potential.

Recommendations for the First Three Rounds:

1. Early Picks (1-4): Take one from the safe value chart, follow up with a top receiver, and go with one from the best value chart in the early third round.
2. Mid Picks (5-8): Take a top receiver in the first round and double-up with the best value chart in rounds 2-3.
3. Late Picks (9-12): If you're confident that you can get Conner, Carson, or Johnson at the 3/4 turn, take a top receiver in the first and one of my faves with the highest ADP from the best value chart in the second round.

Alternative Approach for the First Three Rounds

1. Early Picks (1-4): Take a top receiver and double-up on the best value chart at the 2/3 turn.
2. Mid Picks (5-8): T
   Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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