Sunday Morning Update
A lot of news to get to that has changed over the last 24 hours.
1) The Broncos have no eligible quarterbacks to play this week, leaving Kendall Hinton as the starting quarterback in Denver. The question is whether the Saints defense becomes a must play defense? While the expected points are low for the Broncos, the opportunities for defense come from sacks, interceptions, and touchdown upside. It seems like a potential mistake to pay up to $4,800 at the Saints position.
2) Kalen Ballage will miss this week, and Austin Ekeler was activated off of IR. Ekeler is in play in GPP's, but is not cash game viable due to the lack of guaranteed role.
3) Jonathan Taylor is out, which puts Nyheim Hines firmly in play for cash games. I expect him to be popular in cash games, but not sure that is the right move. Hines has the most volatile touches in Indianapolis, and it very easily could be Jordan Wilkins seeing the bulk of the workload increase due to Jonathan Taylor being out. In GPP's or on PPR sites, Hines is in a great spot due to his receiving ability.
Fading Dalvin Cook?
One of the key decisions in cash games is whether to fade Dalvin Cook in cash games. The more that I've thought about it, the more that I'm considering doing it. At $11,000, even if he has 100 yards and 2 touchdowns, he is only hitting 2x value. There is nothing I can say that is bad about Cook, he is in a good matchup, the Vikings are missing some key offensive players, and he is likely a lock for 25 touches, but he's overpriced. To feel really good about Cook, he is likely going to need to score 25-30 points, and at the very least he will need 22 to be acceptable due to the risk that you're forced to take at other positions. By playing Cook, it can work out, but it takes on more risk as you have to take some players that you otherwise might not be comfortable with, whether it is the Jets defense, lower end wide receivers, or forcing you to go Darren Waller over Travis Kelce.
The gap between Kelce and Waller seems to be bigger than most are giving credit for it. Kelce has topped 100 yards in each of his last three contests and has scored five touchdowns in his last six games whereas Waller has been under 40 yards in three of his last four games. For $900 additional salary, Kelce seems like a must play this week even though Waller has been finding the end zone frequently (4 TD's in last 6 games) and is in a good spot this week.
Final Decision: I'm fading him this week in cash game plays. Playing Kelce is a priority for me this week, and with Julio Jones out, Calvin Ridley sees a significant upgrade and should become cash game viable. Playing the roster below seems to be safer and does not need to take on the risks of Waller and Cole Beasley that were in the previous cash game lineup.
Cash Game UPdate- Projected for 135.9
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $9,000
- RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, $5,700
- RB James Robinson, JAX, $7,400
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,000
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $6,700
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,100
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,000
- Flex RB Brian Hill, ATL, $5,100
- TD New York Jets, $3,000
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Kansas City (at TB) – 29.5 points
- Buffalo (vs LA Chargers) – 29.25 points
- Las Vegas (at ATL) – 28.5 points
- Cleveland (at JAC) – 28 points
- Indianapolis (vs TEN) – 27.5 points
Recap of Last Week
The primary cash lineup snuck into the cashing position in almost all of my 50/50’s and double ups last week, after Dalvin Cook added some late points.
What went right?
- Avoiding Duke Johnson Jr in all cash game formats
- Fading Alvin Kamara
- Forcing Keenan Allen into the lineup even though he was expensive
What went wrong?
- Taking Lamar Jackson over Deshaun Watson. There is still a belief out there that Jackson will snap out of this season and start reverting back to last season. That does not appear to be the case, and he does not appear to be a cash game play moving forward.
- Tee Higgins as a must start player. This one was tough, as it would be easy to blame the Joe Burrow injury as to why Higgins did not produce, but he was struggling prior to this. I’m not sure there is anything to be learned here other than rookie wide receivers are volatile.
- The whole fantasy world missed on Jakobi Meyers last week as he was one of the most popular plays in cash last week due to having 31 targets in three games. Expect this from New England this season which is just inconsistent production moving forward. Damiere Byrd appears to be the most popular this week, but it’s difficult to trust any Patriots receiver in cash as it very well may go back to Meyers.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 12
Quarterback Dilemma
The quarterback position is likely the most difficult play this week and surely the least clear cut. There are as many as five contenders this week to be considered as cash game viable.
Patrick Mahomes II- Mahomes is in a great spot this week especially in a GPP format. Kansas City likely will not be able to run the ball against this elite Tampa Bay run defense, yet they’re still projected to score 29 points against the Buccaneers this week. This should mean a lot of yards very similar to what we saw last week where Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and 3 touchdowns as the Rams all but abandoned the running game early on. Mahomes is as safe as they come as he has topped 20 FanDuel points in all but one of his games this season, but the only question will be whether he has the upside at his price to match some of the cheaper players.
Josh Allen- Josh Allen continues to get under looked as a fantasy star. Allen has topped 25 FanDuel points six times this season which is outstanding, the problem with Allen is that when he doesn’t do this he has had 18 or less in four contests this season. There is definitive risk here for the quarterback, but the matchup is a good one facing off against a Chargers defense that largely has not been tested since Week 6 as they have faced Gardner Minshew, Drew Lock, Derek Carr, Tua Tagavailoa, and Joe Flacco and are still allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. There is risk here, but in terms of upside, Allen has some of the highest upside on the slate.
Taysom Hill- It’s hard to get a gauge as far as whether Taysom Hill will be an every week contributor in fantasy football this season based on his one performance in which he ran for two touchdowns to salvage an otherwise weak stat line. The floor is the lowest of this group, but at just $7,300, he has upside that none in this price range has as he could very easily be the top fantasy producer of the week. The matchup is an intriguing one as Denver has not faced many mobile quarterbacks, but they did allow big games to both Cam Newton and Sam Darnold rushing as both quarterbacks topped 75 yards and found the end zone.
Matt Ryan- This one largely depends on Julio Jones, as if he is out, this would change the outlook for Ryan and lessen his ability to be considered a cash game play. However, if Julio plays, this one has all the makings of a stellar performance from Ryan as the Raiders secondary has been one of the worst in football this season. Allowing the 5th most passing yards per game, the Raiders have struggled mightily with speed out of the slot as we saw last week with Tyreek Hill having a big game as converted safety Lamarcus Joyner could not keep up. This is a great spot for Ryan to potentially throw for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
The Pick?- As of now, we are going with Patrick Mahomes II. There is enough value on this slate and not enough top end plays particularly at the running back position to justify not going with Mahomes. The Chiefs should be throwing from the absolute start of the game until the final whistle due to the lack of rushing opportunity in this one.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Drew Brees will continue to be out this week and Taysom Hill will get the start once again. Hill showed enough rushing upside and his price is low enough that you could consider him for cash games this week. The only concern might be game script related however as facing Denver the question will be how much do they have to throw the ball to beat the Broncos this week. Last week Hill threw only 23 times for 233 yards, but did add two rushing touchdowns and 51 yards onto the stat line.
Todd Gurley will miss this week with a knee injury. Brian Hill will get the start
John Brown will miss this week with an ankle injury. Cole Beasley should see a significant uptick in usage as in the two games that Brown has missed, Beasley has caught 17 passes for 165 yards. Beasley leads the team in Red Zone targets and at just $5,400 should be a strong consideration for cash game viability this week. Stefon Diggs should also see a slight uptick in volume this week.
The Vikings are a bit of a mess as Adam Thielen will miss this week due to Covid-19, and Irv Smith Jr. will miss with a groin/back injury. This makes Justin Jefferson one of the top cash game plays of the day, but also could make Kyle Rudolph viable as a punt. The problem with Rudolph however is the lack of Red Zone looks as Irv Smith has just six on the season while Rudolph only has four both are outside the top 100 in players this season.
The Bengals will be without both their starting quarterback and running back this week as Joe Burrow will miss the remainder of the regular season, and Joe Mixon still remains out and could be done for the year after being placed on IR. Brandon Allen will get the start and while you can expect better things than Ryan Finley, it still is not something to get excited about this week. This is likely an avoid, unless you want to take a deep shot on Tee Higgins on sites where he is much lower priced.
Salvon Ahmed is out although the Dolphins are expecting Myles Gaskin to potentially return this week. If Gaskin returns, this will be a split backfield between Gaskin, Breida, and maybe some Patrick Laird. If Gaskin is out, it still isn’t a great situation as while Breida in theory should get volume, it seems unlikely based on how the coaching staff has handled this one in wanting Laird to have a role and keep Breida’s touches relatively limited.
Austin Ekeler is questionable this week, but appears to be on the more doubtful side of questionable which should mean that we will get one more week of Kalen Ballage as the starting running back although he is also questionable with an ankle injury that caused him to leave last week’s game early. With other value on the board, it doesn’t seem as if we have to go down to Ballage, but he would be the most interesting guy on this team.
Tyler Higbee is questionable with an elbow injury. If Higbee is out, Gerald Everett should become one of the top players of this week at the tight end position.
The Jaguars are a bit of a mess right now as Jake Luton will not start this week and instead it will be Mike Glennon. At the wide receiver position, DJ Chark and Chris Conley will miss this week leaving only Keelan Cole and Laviska Shenault as regular contributors in this offense. This could be a total avoid and maybe the answer is Cleveland’s defense, although they are missing Myles Garrett due to Covid.
UPDATE
Jonathan Taylor is out this week. Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines both become intriguing plays on this slate. Wilkins likely will see more of the rushing attempts, but Hines when he gets the ball in his hands is electric and can make a big play out of nearly nothing. This also should help the passing game as in theory they will run the ball less and makes a player like Michael Pittman even more interesting.
Tua Tagavailoa is doubtful this week, it looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start. This should give the Jets defense a slight upgrade and make them the clear value play on this slate.
WEATHER CONCERN
No issues this week
KEY CASH CORE
Brian Hill- $5,100
Brian Hill fills in for Todd Gurley this week which is a much needed salary relief option on this slate. Hill throughout his career has been productive in short spurts, but has never been given the full opportunity to see what he can do as he was often passed over for guys such as Ito Smith. In his two games as a starter, Hill was thrown in to face two of the best defenses in football last season in Carolina and New Orleans and struggled mightily against both of them. The good news for Hill however, is that he is now facing a Raiders team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and are allowing 1.2 touchdowns per game on the ground. There is plenty of opportunity for the Falcons running back who becomes a free agent after this season and is being given his biggest opportunity as an NFL running back that will likely determine his future.
Wayne Gallman Jr. - $5,700
Wayne Gallman gets to face a Bengals team that is allowing 5.3 yards-per-carry at just $5,700? Yes, please. Gallman is quietly emerging as a running back who is a consistent producer for the Giants as they still have playoff aspirations at just 3-7 and can tie for a share of the lead this week with a win against the Bengals. Gallman’s workload has steadily increased over the last three games increasing from 12 to 14 to 18 carries and he’s faced three very good run defenses in Tampa Bay, Washington, and Philadelphia. All Gallman has done in those three matchups is score 4 touchdowns. Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 yards and a touchdown for Gallman with additional upside. This is as much a fade against Josh Jacobs who will be popular as it is a love for Gallman, spending the salary cap elsewhere is the preference this week.
Justin Jefferson- $7,000
Justin Jefferson will be the chalk this week at the wide receiver position. Jefferson has quietly put together a fantastic season after taking the first two weeks to really get acclimated to this offense. Jefferson has averaged 97 yards per game since Week 3 which would put him second in the NFL on the year. Helping Jefferson is that Adam Thielen will miss this week and while it may not lead to additional targets due to seeing more attention from opposing defenses, it likely means that Jefferson will see more Red Zone opportunities as Thielen was fourth in the NFL inside the Red Zone while Jefferson is 143rd thus far with just four targets on the year.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.2)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $9,000
- RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, $5,700
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $11,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,000
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $6,700
- WR Cole Beasley, BUF, $5,400
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,100
- Flex RB Brian Hill, ATL, $5,100
- TD New York Jets, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH If Tyler Higbee is out- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 129.6)
- QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $9,000
- RB Wayne Gallman, NYG, $5,700
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $11,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,000
- WR Stefon Diggs, BUF, $7,900
- WR Robby Anderson, CAR, $6,400
- TE Gerald Everett, LAR, $4,700
- Flex RB Brian Hill, ATL, $5,100
- TD New York Jets, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – Cheaper Quarterback (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.1)
- QB Taysom Hill, NO, $7,300
- RB James Robinson, JAC, $7,400
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $11,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,000
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $6,700
- WR Cole Beasley, BUF, $5,400
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,100
- Flex RB Brian Hill, ATL, $5,100
- TD New York Jets, $3,000
SAMPLE ROSTER 4 ($60K) – Cash + Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 132.6)
- QB Taysom Hill, NO, $73,00
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN $8,300
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $11,000
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $7,000
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $5,700
- WR Cole Beasley, BUF, $5,400
- TE Gerald Everett, LAR, $4,700
- Flex RB Brian Hill, ATL, $5,100
- TD New York Jets, $3,000
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
