A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the Top 150 and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
They gave us 11 names. That's a lot, especially at tight end.
If you want all of the players, keep on reading. If you just want the top vote-getter, that guy is Blake Jarwin with six votes. Four tight ends tied for second with five votes each.
NOTE: We know all these different opinions can be a lot. And certainly, not everyone agrees on everything.
If you want to cut straight to the chase and get our "Bottom Line" for where we project every player right down to the last yard, you can see that here. That's our Bottom Line and where we plant the Footballguys Flag for all these players.
If you'd like to see more detail about how the staff sees different players, here is every wide receiver who was mentioned and the reasons why.
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Blake Jarwin, Dallas
Phil Alexander: How is it mid-August and we still have to list Jarwin as a deep sleeper? He's been efficient with his targets since entering the league and the market is underrating his ability to command volume in a seemingly crowded offense. Even if you pencil CeeDee Lamb in for 100 targets in year-one (17 more than Randall Cobb had last year), there is still room for Jarwin to command at least 100 of his own -- a threshold reached by only four tight ends in 2019. Jason Witten leaves behind 83 targets from last season, and Jarwin earned 41 of his own. Assuming the offensive pie stays about the same size for Dallas this year, Jarwin stands to keep his own volume and soak up most of Witten’s. Besides proven efficiency, Jarwin has plus-athleticism, the trust of his quarterback and coaching staff, and is stepping into a target void. The fact he barely gets drafted inside the top-20 at the position is criminal. Draft this man.
Sigmund Bloom: This one is elementary. Jarwin was highly efficient on a limited number of targets last year - only Jared Cook had a higher percentage of 20+ yard plays among tight ends. Jason Witten is gone, which frees up 83 targets. If Jarwin captures only half of them, he'll be at 82 targets for the year. Defenses are going to be preoccupied with stopping the running game and strong trio of receivers, leaving the middle of the field open for Jarwin, which Mike McCarthy has already noted. The Cowboys believe in Jarwin, signing him to a four-year, $22 million deal in the offseason.
Andrew Davenport: The lack of respect for Jarwin in drafts has to be because people don't think he can carve out a role behind the Dallas receiving trio and Ezekiel Elliott. Otherwise, all things point to Jarwin being ready to take the next step as a tight end and as a fantasy producer. His athleticism is elite, he plays on a great offense, and the leading target hog at the position has left town. He only saw 41 targets last year, but he ranked 6th in the NFL in yards per target which was just behind Travis Kelce, and ahead of guys considered to be big-play threats like Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry. Those projecting him to struggle for targets are not accounting for the fact that Jason Witten, the 37-year-old slow-footed veteran, turned 83 targets into an 11th place PPR finish last season. Jarwin's ability at this point in his career is far superior to Witten's. So the only question is, can Jarwin expect to command the same market share as Witten and do more with the targets? The answer to both is a fairly easy yes. Take a shot on Jarwin in a dynamic offense.
Ryan Hester: It's hard to expand any more on what Phil said about Jarwin. The athleticism is there, the projected volume is there, and the high-powered offense is there. Jarwin should "bottom out" at 80-90 targets and a handful of touchdowns.
Dan Hindery: Jarwin may be behind the top three receivers in the pecking order for targets, but if Dallas passes for nearly 5,000 yards again, Jarwin should be fine. He is a strong athlete who has shown good speed down the seam and has developed a nice rapport with Dak Prescott. Of the tight ends being drafted late, Jarwin is one of the top breakout candidates and he has a decent floor as well given how good the Dallas offense should be.
Jason Wood: Jarwin is by no means guaranteed success, but that's why he's available late as a sleeper. Although he'll be fighting for targets behind Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb, the passing offense is prolific enough to support a fantasy viable tight end, too. Mike McCarthy loves to throw the ball, and that won't change in Dallas regardless of Ezekiel Elliott. The new head coach specifically commented about how valuable deep seam routes are in his system, and said Jarwin is perfectly suited to them.
Players Receiving 5 Votes
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh
Andrew Davenport: The Steelers keep looking for tight ends to fill their void in the center of the field and they keep acquiring veterans who disappoint. Ebron has a chance to break that trend. While Pittsburgh has an exciting young wide receiver corps, behind JuJu Smith-Schuster are several receivers who don't specialize in working the short or middle part of the field. Ebron only has to contend with the disappointing Vance McDonald in order to possibly establish himself as the third or fourth option in the passing game. With Ben Roethlisberger returning to the field Ebron will have every chance to succeed and show off his nose for the end zone. It's very cheap to find out if the Steelers finally have their man.
Jeff Haseley: We have seen Eric Ebron have success in the past. He'll have a chance to be a big contributor on one of the better offenses in the league. The Steelers are built on a strong passing game and are one year removed from a 5,000-yard passing season. Ben Roethlisberger has utilized the tight end often in his career and Ebron brings a level of knowledge and experience that would fit perfectly with Pittsburgh's offense. He had ankle surgery in the offseason, but there is no indication that it will give him trouble. In camp this year, teammate Vance McDonald called him the "missing piece of the offense." If Ebron is healthy with no ill-effects, he could make a play for a top 12-10 finish this season.
Andy Hicks: Those expecting a timeshare at tight end in Pittsburgh this year didn’t see Vance McDonald play last year. He played injured and poorly doing so. At age 30 and having to adjust his contract to remain with the team McDonald will be usurped in the lead role by the enigmatic Eric Ebron. Despite this being his seventh year in the league Ebron is still only 27. His 2018 season with the Colts demonstrated what was expected when drafted with the 10th overall pick in 2014 and where his upside lies for this year. Pittsburgh and Ben Roethlisberger in particular have a proven track record of using the position well and as long as he can stay fit, Ebron is certain to outperform his draft slot.
Chad Parsons: Ebron is an easy choice as a deep sleeper in 2020. Ebron has four straight top-18 adjusted PPR PPG seasons (including two top-12 years) after his sluggish career start, including already changing teams. Ebron gets a healthy Ben Roethlisberger in 2020 as the Steelers are one of the 'rising tide' passing games considering their struggles through multiple backup quarterbacks last year. Ebron is priced at his floor and one of the best bets to be a top-10 option for a fraction of draft capital.
Matt Waldman: Fantasy players aren't enthusiastic about Ebron because of his inconsistent career, but he's an excellent fit in Pittsburgh. This is a town that has long wanted a tight end who can stretch the seam and earn playing time outside. As long as Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy, Ebron has a chance to have one of his better seasons as a pro. This will translate to starter production in most fantasy formats.
Chris Herndon, NY Jets
Sigmund Bloom: Herndon's rookie year left him poised for a breakout sophomore campaign, but a suspension and injuries nullified his 2019. He is generating buzz leading into the 2020 season and the Jets don't have much at wide receiver, giving him a chance to be a primary target. Adam Gase and the Jets offensive line don't inspire confidence, but Herndon's dollar store price makes him the best Jet to invest in if you dare go there.
Andrew Davenport: There is glowing praise coming from Jets camp that says Herndon is looking like the guy they hoped they'd have when drafting him. Last season can be chalked up as a lost one for Herndon where injuries and suspension completely wiped out his season. But in 2018 he showed strong chops for a rookie, commanding 30 targets in his last 6 games and flashing the ability that has fantasy owners intrigued. Backup Ryan Griffin was able to put up some very relevant fantasy performances a year ago in Herndon's place, so Sam Darnold and the Jets will use the position if it's working. Herndon enters the year unencumbered in 2020 so he's worth the selection late in drafts to see if he can live up to his billing.
Jeff Haseley: 2019 was a lost season for the Jets budding tight end. He served a four-game suspension to begin the year and then suffered a hamstring injury and rib injury which eventually shelved him for the rest of the season. He played only one game in 2019 and caught one pass for seven yards. The Jets offense is a work in progress but Herndon is considered to be a piece of the offensive structure. He has top-10 potential, but in addition to his own growth and development, he will need Sam Darnold and the offense to take a step forward. We've seen other tight ends emerge who had a lower preseason ranking. Perhaps Herndon can put it all together in his third year in the league?
Dan Hindery: There is some risk in buying into preseason hype but if you are digging deep trying to find the next Darren Waller, you have to take some risks. The early reports out of Jets camp have been glowing when it comes to Herndon with reporters speculating he “can be a special piece to the puzzle.” We also have some evidence of Herndon’s talent to go on. He put up a 39-502-4 line in 2018, which was very impressive for a rookie. For context, Noah Fant is going many rounds earlier than Herndon off of the strength of his 40-562-3 rookie season and Fant has even more competition for targets than Herndon does.
Justin Howe: No one wants to invest much in the Jets passing game, which is fair. Sam Darnold has yet to show consistency as an NFL starter, while Jamison Crowder is poised to again dominate safe targets underneath. But Herndon is a piece Adam Gase is excited about, moving him all over the formation in camp. Herndon has plenty of athleticism (12.9 yards per catch as a rookie) to dominate in the slot and as a playmaker after the catch. If Darnold takes any step forward whatsoever, Gase should open up the offense and let his youngster throw it 575+ times. That makes Herndon one of the sexiest upside plays at TE2, yet he's coming close to free in many drafts.
Irv Smith, Minnesota
Sigmund Bloom: Smith has multiple paths to paying off on a late pick this year. He could overtake Kyle Rudolph as the primary receiving tight end. Smith has also gotten looks outside as the Vikings will be trying to make up for the loss of Stefon Diggs via trade. First-round pick Justin Jefferson will be tasked with taking his spot in the lineup, but Smith could be a more trusted target entering his second year at only 22. The Vikings pass offense is also highly efficient, so Smith might need fewer targets to hit than a typical tight end.
James Brimacombe: With the dismiss of Stefon Diggs and the uptick in the running game, both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith will likely see plenty of time on the field together and both can be productive tight ends for fantasy purposes while co-existing in the same offense. Look for Smith to build on his rookie season and be a bigger target for Kirk Cousins in season two.
Jeff Haseley: A second-year breakout could happen this year for Irv Smith. He has excellent separation for his size plus route deception. For a big receiver, those are excellent characteristics to have. The Vikings were second in the league in using 12-personnel in 2019 and while former offensive coordinator, Kevin Stefanski is now in Cleveland, Gary Kubiak should still incorporate plenty of two-tight end sets and don't be surprised to see Kubiak put Smith out wide at times, because he plays like a wide receiver. This would give the Vikings the ability to get Justin Jefferson and Smith involved in more plays.
Ryan Hester: Smith runs a 4.6 40-yard dash and caught 44 passes with 7 touchdowns on a 2018 Alabama team where he shared targets with Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. With Stefon Diggs gone and Kyle Rudolph aging, Smith has a chance to see a significant increase in targets. And he has the athleticism to do something with them.
Jason Wood: The Vikings are run-heavy, which scares fantasy owners off their skill players, but that would be a mistake. At Smith's cost, he's the perfect lottery ticket TE2 in drafts. He's got an impeccable pedigree and the skill set to be on the field a majority of snaps. While he must contend with veteran Kyle Rudolph, new coordinator Gary Kubiak understands the value of a young, athletic player with breakout potential over a grizzled veteran hanging on for dear life. Kubiak's offenses have targeted the tight end position 23% of the time in 21 seasons; which means even a low-volume passing scheme can be bountiful.
Ian Thomas, Carolina
Phil Alexander: Thomas has been laying in wait behind Greg Olsen as a potential late-round tight end breakout for the last two years running. Carolina will be forced to pass a ton this year, which leaves room for Thomas to command 80-90 targets in his first season out from Olsen's shadow -- enough volume for an athlete of his caliber to crack the Top 12. There's an upside too if Thomas earns Bridgewater's trust in the red-zone. D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson are all quality receivers, but none are built to highpoint end-zone throws like Thomas, who goes 6'4", 260 lbs., with an explosive 36" vertical jump.
James Brimacombe: The Panthers are moving on from both Cam Newton and Greg Olsen and moving forward with the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Ian Thomas. Thomas did little behind Olsen in 2019 as he couldn't seem to find his way on the field with Olsen in front of him on the depth chart and he only appeared in a total of nine games. Now the opportunity is huge for Thomas to break out with the potential to crack the top 15 tight end range as he could be a nice safety blanket for Bridgewater.
Andy Hicks: For the last five games of his rookie season in 2018, Ian Thomas looked like a future starter. Those of us looking for improvement in year two were left disappointed as Greg Olsen was preferred and Thomas spent a further year in apprenticeship. Funnily enough over the final five games of the 2019 season, he recorded 15 of his 16 receptions. With Olsen gone, a new head coach and offensive system in place, Thomas is on a lot of people's sleeper lists and with good justification. It’s either Thomas or bust at the Panthers and with Teddy Bridgewater needing a reliable target in the middle, look for his opportunities to increase. Be aware that his ADP could rise with further positive reports, negating his current value.
Justin Howe: It's finally Thomas' time to shine, and he could hardly be in a better situation to challenge 50 catches. Greg Olsen is no longer around, leaving Thomas as the clear-cut starter for a new quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) who's loath to throw the ball deep. The Panthers lack a red-zone presence, too, which Thomas could bring at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds.
Jeff Pasquino: Thomas inherits the starting role at tight end for the Panthers this season as Greg Olsen has moved on to Seattle. Thomas had limited opportunities behind Olsen in his first two seasons, but he played more during the final five games last year, turning 26 targets into a respectable 15-132-1 stat line. Projecting that over 16 games gives 48-442-3, which is nearly identical to the staff projections - but this likely represents the floor for Thomas rather than his upside. Thomas was only on the field for 50% of the snaps in three of those same five games last year, and in the two games he played 60+ snaps he racked up nine receptions and 80 of those yards along with his only touchdown. Carolina’s offense is changing now with Teddy Bridgewater and new wide receivers, but Thomas certainly represents a solid fantasy TE2 with upside if he flourishes in the new scheme.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Will Dissly, Seattle
Andy Hicks: When getting to the part of your draft where you look for another Tight End you can go the safe route and pick your 40-421-3 for a season type of player or instead look for a guy that has top-six upside potential. Such a player is Will Dissly. Dissly has only appeared in 10 games over two seasons to date with six of those showing elite production, two he was injured in, one was his first game and only one other game was disappointing. Fitness is a concern for Dissly with recovery from an Achilles injury suffered last year to be monitored closely. The arrival of Greg Olsen shouldn’t scare you away. Olsen is now 35 and has been either injured or in decline for three years. He is Dissly insurance and not the other way around.
Jeff Pasquino: One tight end in Seattle could emerge, and it may not be Greg Olsen. While we are focused on the future Hall of Fame tight end's new team, Will Dissly was quite the productive tight end for the first five weeks last season (23-262-4) before a torn Achilles cost him the rest of the year last October. Dissly is on pace to be ready for Week 1, and at just 24 he is playing to re-establish himself as a top option at tight end once again. Dissly had the most touchdowns of any tight end last year through the first five weeks, but he will have to prove it again to earn the starting job, keep it and hopefully land a new contract prior to becoming a free agent after the 2021 season.
Danny Tuccitto: If I were to be so bold, I'd say the Seahawks' addition of Greg Olsen this offseason was a red herring at worst and an insurance policy at best. Dissly owns the ninth-highest True Yards per Route Run (1.81) among tight ends in the Pro Football Focus era (2006-present), which ranks fifth-highest among those returning to their same team in 2020. Similarly, he has the ninth-highest True Touchdowns per Route Run (1.52%) in the PFF era, which ranks fourth-highest among those returning to their same team in 2020. If Dissly can stay healthy -- which is obviously a huge "if" -- he'll be an absolute steal at TE30 or thereabouts.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay
Jeff Haseley: I like Howard this year for several reasons. He is an athletic receiver capable of making big plays that can be drafted as a backup tight end. In three years in the league, he has topped five touchdowns twice which shows that he is capable of performing well. The Buccaneers offense is projected to be a high-scoring unit and they should use a two-tight end formation fairly often with the addition of Rob Gronkowski and two elite wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Even if Gronkowski is the primary tight end target for Tom Brady, Howard can still be a contributor on a top-flite offense. Plus, if an injury happens to befall Gronkowski, Howard becomes an immediate player of interest in all fantasy formats.
Matt Waldman: Tom Brady and Bruce Arians are melding their offenses. The Buccaneers will use two tight ends as their base set. This means Brady will use his pre-snap acumen to shift his two elite athletes at tight end around the formation for mismatches. Look for Howard to deliver starter production more often than many expect. Even as a No.2 tight end on his squad, he's worth selecting at the end of drafts as your second tight end due to his upside in this role as well as what could happen if Rob Gronkowski gets hurt. He's a great late-round value.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville
Dan Hindery: Eifert is a forgotten man who is going off the board in the final rounds (if at all) in fantasy drafts this season. He has a great chance of being a value pick in deeper leagues and is a guy who many Jacksonville reporters have been impressed with in camp. Eifert is coming off of the healthiest season of his career (16 games) and is the clearcut TE1 for the Jaguars, especially since the top backup options are dealing with their own injury issues — Josh Oliver just broke his foot and may be out for the season. Eifert has a good shot to emerge as Garnder Minshew’s second-favorite target in what could be a sneakily productive passing offense. Remember Eifert scored 13 touchdowns the last season he was paired with new Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden.
Gerald Everett, LA Rams
Justin Howe: The Rams' preference for two-TE sets showed up majorly down the 2019 stretch, but Everett wasn't there to take advantage. Healthy to enter the year, it's safe to expect him to supplant Johnny Mundt within seconds. And Sean McVay's attack could mean huge things for not just Tyler Higbee, but Everett, who recorded 3 games of 50+ yards before going down last year. He's long been one of football's best-kept secrets, an athletic stud who always ranks well in receiving metrics. His upside fits perfectly in the very last rounds of drafts.
Greg Olsen, Seattle
Chad Parsons: Olsen enters his 14th NFL season with six TE1 seasons under his belt and another five inside the top-20 of the position. Olsen signed with Seattle, which points to some concern about Will Dissly's status at least early in the season. Olsen's price point is in true flyer range, yet the upside is a strong historical producer paired with an elite quarterback as the starter for much (or all) of the 2020 season. Olsen has a reasonable probability for a top-15 or even a top-10 season for a hearty discount.
Adam Trautman, New Orleans
Matt Waldman: The logical choices you should consider first are Greg Olsen who is a perfect complement to what Russell Wilson does well and should have his best year in the past 3-4 and Trey Burton, who is supposed to earn Eric Ebron's old role with the Cols and should mesh well downfield with Philip Rivers. However, to go completely off the radar, let's go with Trautman, the rookie from Dayton. Mark Schofield interviewed Trautman and knows he's advanced with his understanding of line calls and protections. My film study has revealed an advanced technician. Don't be surprised if he has some big weeks as the second tight end in the offense. If Jared Cook gets hurt, look out.
