Draft Strategy: Good-Byes

Photo: USA Today Sports

I'll share a little something about myself today. I'm not exactly a conventional thinker. That's sometimes good, often times bad, but there are enough aha moments where you have a revelation that might be just enough to say that all the oddball ideas that pop in your head are worth it if you can have one of those thoughts that pays off. Whether this is one of those moments is yet to be decided, but I think there is some hope.

First off, I'll set the stage for the discussion. When the NFL announced their 2019 season, we all poured over it and looked for fantasy implications. The first thing that jumped off the page was the bye weeks, as usual. Most keeper league and dynasty league players love to check that first so as to see if they have bye week issues in store for the coming season. That's when it dawned on myself and several others that the NFL hates us at times - no really, they do. Trust me. Otherwise, how could they not understand that these weeks where six teams have a bye week just wreak havoc with our fantasy teams?

The six teams off in one week started the first year of NBC's flex scheduling (2006), as the NFL wanted to adjust the bye weeks so that they would be done and gone by Week 11 and also so as to not have a team with a week off before Week 4. The net result of that simple math was that instead of eight weeks with four teams on a bye, the NFL would have two weeks where six teams took time off. In 2009 it got even worse as there were three weeks with six teams off, but it went back to two weeks in 2010. Various schedules have been used over the past decade, but every year there are one or more weeks in the schedule that create nightmares for fantasy team owners. This is again the case in 2019, where Week 10 has six teams taking the week off, and five other weeks (Weeks 6, 7, 9, 11 and 12) where four teams are not playing. That also brings up another point of late, as the NFL has expanded in Week 12 over the past five years, making these headaches last even longer.

All those byes made me think about the common question we have every year about bye weeks. Does it make good sense to collect players with the same bye weeks so as to have your team at full strength all the other games rather than patching your team for seven weeks during the year?

At first, I didn't like the idea, since you are basically writing off a week on your schedule. Walking into a 13-game schedule (prior to fantasy playoffs) at 0-1 already is not a great idea in my book. It gets even worse if you are in a league with fewer games or that punishes exceptionally bad performance weeks (such as the all-play format where you play everyone every week). All that aside, I thought I would at least see if I could come up with a recipe to do just the thing that people asked for - draft a team with all the same bye weeks.

I decided I would use three rules:

1. Focus on a complete starting lineup (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, and a TE)
2. The lineup had to be complete by Round 10 (Pick 120)
3. No reach picks

Rule No. 3 means that if you wanted to accomplish No. 1 and No. 2 but you had to draft a player in Round 5 who normally is still available in Rounds 6 or 7, that's off the table. We're not going to blow up our entire draft board just to get this together.

Next, came the process of listing all of the Top 120 picks based on recent ADP and sort them by bye weeks. Rather than listing them all (ADPs can always be found here), here is a table that breaks down each week by the total number of players and by position:

Table 1: Bye Weeks vs. Positions

After reviewing Table 1, a few weeks can immediately be removed from consideration. NFL Week 4 has just two teams on a bye (Jets and 49ers), while Week 5 (Detroit and Miami) and Week 8 (Baltimore and Dallas) are also minimal bye weeks. Cross off all three of these options, which reduces the task of just looking at six one-week slates of games. Week 6 is very borderline with only four teams off, and not many of those teams have Top 120 players (only 11 from Table 1, including a defense). For thoroughness, we can consider it, but odds are that week is not going to work well either.

Starting with that questionable week (Week 6), there are only 11 players to select from, and that is if you include the Chicago defense. To even consider this an option, you would have to buy into Andrew Luck and Eric Ebron as the only quarterback and tight end on the list. Both Oakland (Antonio Brown, Josh Jacobs) and Buffalo (LeSean McCoy) are barely represented. Way too many reasons to completely avoid this option. Just for the record, here is the chart of these players in a round-by-round breakdown by position:

Table 2: Players with Week 6 Byes

Now let’s look at Week 7 players. Right off the bat, there are four good teams to pick players from (Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay) and a good number of them (20) overall. The plan really is for those drafting at the back end of the first round, as two players (James Conner and Odell Beckham Jr) could be staring an owner in the face for their first two picks. Conner and Beckham share the same bye, and while they are strong values, that will give some owners some pause. As David Dodds says in his Perfect Draft article - draft from you Top 50-60 players REGARDLESS OF BYE WEEK. This particular section of this article is intended for those fantasy team owners who may face this exact situation. Take both Conner and Beckham if you like both in Round 1 and Round 2, then target several wide receivers in the next few rounds before rounding it out with one of four quarterbacks and a tight end. The only downside to the Week 7 all-in bye week plan is Week 7 itself - if your team starts slowly, it will be hard to stomach an all-backup lineup with a 3-3 or worse record. Taking Conner and Beckham is completely viable if you are in that situation, but other weeks for the "all in" plan may be better. Either way, be sure to keep Table 3 ready if you have a draft going like this:

Table 3: Players with Week 7 Byes

Week 8 was already a scratch with just the Ravens and Cowboys having the week off, but the next four weeks are all viable options. Let's take a look at the next group of four teams that all share a bye in Week 9:

Table 4: Players with Week 9 Byes

Despite having four teams to choose from (Atlanta, Cincinnati, New Orleans, and the Rams), all four represent strong offenses to target for fantasy production. Every team offers at least one quarterback and one running back (with several more than one), and there are multiple tight ends (two) and quarterbacks (three) as options. With 21 players on the list (including the kicker and defense from the Rams), there are many ways that a fantasy team can start with 2-3 players in the first 4-5 rounds with a Week 9 bye. A start of Michael Thomas, Joe Mixon and then a wide receiver for the Rams could drive a path towards an all-in Week 9 bye plan - which would lead to targeting a quarterback and tight end with the same week off. Even a value running back like Latavius Murray could round out such a plan - so again, if this winds up being the path your draft takes, keep these lists in mind.

Now let's take a look at Week 10, the only week where six teams are taking a hiatus. Here is the breakdown in Table 5:

Table 5: Players with Week 10 Byes

Week 10 is interesting, as there are the most options of any week (22 players) - and all of them are at the skill positions. The one drawback of going after this pack of six teams is that only one tight end - Zach Ertz - is on the list here, but if you secure his services in the first few rounds -- along with another Week 10 player -- this could be a viable option. Tons of running back and wide receiver options exist from Rounds 4-10, so targeting those players and Carson Wentz as your quarterback could make for a strong all-in option. Despite all of these options, this is not the ideal week to shoot for this plan, as several of the six teams are mediocre offenses at best (Denver, Jacksonville, Washington).

Moving on to Week 11:

Table 6: Players with Week 11 Byes

With four teams on a bye in Week 11 (Green Bay, Seattle, Tennessee, and the Giants), 15 players make the list in Table 6. Multiple players are options for each position, offering up possibilities throughout the first ten rounds of your draft. The question becomes one of whether to target these quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson) and two weaker offenses (New York Giant and the Titans). Perhaps we should skip this week. Time to take a look at our final week, NFL Week 12:

Table 7: Players with Week 12 Byes

Week 12 gives a chance to take players from two high-octane offenses in the AFC West (Kansas City and the Chargers) and the "air raid" Kliff Kingsbury is installing in Arizona, plus adding in top fantasy players from the Vikings. Based on ADP, however, it could be tough to get too many of these 17 players and only two tight ends (Travis Kelce, Hunter Henry) made the list. If you stretch the plan to Kyle Rudolph that could make Week 12 more of an option, but it really comes down to how many Chiefs and Chargers (and maybe 1-2 Vikings) you secure in the first 4-5 rounds. If you have 2-3, taking Larry Fitzgerald and Kyle Murray, for example, in Rounds 7-10 could make for an intriguing "all in" option plan. The best part of targeting Week 12 is that your fantasy team will have 11 games under its belts, so by then (or close to it) you will know if you can truly stomach a one-week loss or not for your playoff chances. This is another good reason to target Weeks 9-12 overall for any sort of "all in" Good-Bye plan for 2019.

So there you have it - the Good-Bye view for 2019. If your draft goes a certain way and you start to collect players with the same bye week, do not freak out. Just remember this article and think about compounding the problem by building a team that will be 100% full when other teams have bye weeks affecting their lineups. There are a number of ways to try this out and make it a successful draft, but remember my earlier warnings about planning for a loss in your fantasy season. Good luck.

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

Follow @JeffPasquino