Eliminator Pool: Week 13

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Week 12 was almost a clean run for the staff, as only Devin Knotts and James Brimacombe took a loss on the week thanks to San Francisco's dramatic victory over the Rams on Sunday. Those two losses puts the group of 22 staffers at a strong 231-33 record for the year (87.5% correct) with five perfect 12-0 teams and seven more just one game back with one blemish on the season. That's quite remarkable given how unpredictable the 2020 campaign has been, but several weeks still remain. Anything can happen (and often does), and there are a ton of games to pick from in Week 13's 15-game slate. Let's take a look at the week ahead.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

Week 13 has finally arrived, and there is nearly a complete slate of games (only Tampa Bay and Carolina are off for the final scheduled byes this season). With 15 games to select from, there are usually at least a few games to look hard at, even here in December. What is rather remarkable is that over half of the slate - 8 of 15 games - have teams listed as favorites by a touchdown or more. Here's a quick rundown:

• Kansas City (vs. Denver, -13.5 to -14, -910 to -1000 Money Line)
• Miami (vs. Cincinnati, -11.5, -560 to -600 Money Line)
• Minnesota (vs. Jacksonville, -10 to -10.5, -450 to -600 Money Line)
• Seattle (vs. the New York Giants, -10, -500 to -550 Money Line)
• Pittsburgh (vs. Washington, -8.5 to -10, -400 Money Line)
• Green Bay (vs. Philadelphia, -8.5 to -9, -360 to -400 Money Line)
• Las Vegas (at the New York Jets, -8 to -8.5, -350 to -400 Money Line)
• Baltimore (vs. Dallas, -7, -355 Money Line)

Now a few of the lines are still settling in as both Baltimore and Pittsburgh played Wednesday afternoon, but with eight games to choose from and several big spreads and Money Lines, there is a large list to pick from for Week 13. Given that Green Bay (all 22 staffers have used them), Kansas City (18), Pittsburgh (17), and Miami (17) have been selected quite a bit, this looks like a week where many will try and use a borderline playoff team in a good spot on the schedule to get a win and move on to the final four weeks. Expect a lot of selections for the Raiders, Seahawks, and maybe even the Vikings once all the picks are in from the staff.

The picks are coming in late on a Thursday night thanks in part to Week 12's record length and no Thursday game this week, and the results are close to the prediction. Las Vegas is the top choice with eight staffers on the Raiders as they head to New Jersey to face the Jets, while both Seattle (vs. the Giants) and Minnesota (vs. Jacksonville) landed four picks each. Miami received three picks, which is a large percentage of the five staffers that still had them as an option, as was the Chiefs (two picks from four staffers that still had Kansas City available). The only unique pick of the week went to the Steelers as Justin Howe went with an undefeated Pittsburgh team looking to stay that way on Monday against Washington. Six different teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so once again it will be interesting to see how it all plays out by Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Given that there are just five games/weeks to go, I decided that I need to invest more in game theory. I have mapped out my likely picks for the remaining contests, but there is more to the equation to try and win this contest. I will wait to reveal my strategy for the final three games, but let us focus on Weeks 13 and 14. The most likely path for many of the staff is to take the Raiders (at the Jets) this week and then come back with Seattle next week. Given that I am chasing the leaders and am one game behind, I took note that three of the five staffers with perfect records have already used the Seahawks, so that adds even more weight to using them differently than the competition. While I could take Las Vegas with the masses, taking Seattle this week instead gives me very likely differentiation this week (and guaranteed differentiation with those who have used Seattle already) and forces me to go in a different direction than what I will expect most staffers to do next week. Looking ahead I see that the Seahawks host the Jets and are going to be a double-digit favorite in that game as well, so most of the staff with Seattle could be waiting for that week - but again, I will be avoiding the common play of "Raiders / Seattle" for these two weeks. I already have my eye on a few other options for next Sunday, but let's start by taking Seattle and hoping that the Raiders will be weary after two consecutive trips to the East Coast for an early kickoff and possibly not having their star tailback (Josh Jacobs, ankle issue).

The Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Sigmund Bloom: Using Seattle against Colt McCoy is tempting, but the Seahawks get the Jets next week. I'll take Minnesota getting Adam Thielen back against Mike Glennon and the Jaguars.

I'll be able to take teams facing the Jets for the next three weeks as a tribute to their push for an 0-16 season.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Jeff Haseley: The field is narrowing way down, but this week, a clear option is Minnesota.

Minnesota is a 9.5 point favorite at home against Jacksonville who has lost 10 straight games. There are other possible picks this week, but this game is leaning in my favor. Jacksonville has kept games close recently with narrow losses to Cleveland, Green Bay, and Houston where the combined margin was eight points. Minnesota is a cardiac team, meaning they find ways to lose in the end and keep their fan base perpetually biting their nails. They tried to lose last week but Carolina just couldn't win it. Hopefully, the return of Adam Thielen, the strong play of Dalvin Cook, and the presence of rookie phenom Justin Jefferson will inject this team to an overpowering victory over a struggling opponent.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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