Eliminator Pool: Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, both Dave Larkin and I have written the “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. This has been a very popular feature, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest previously with a preseason strategy article, which describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Another big upset came in Week 15 with the Jets getting their first win of the year over the Los Angeles Rams. That crazy outcome took out the favorite to win this year's pool - Sigmund Bloom - giving him his first loss of the year. Sorry that I "Bloomed" you last week Sigmund, but that's the way these pools can go. I am certain that he was not the only tough-luck loser in Survivor Pools across the country. Jordan McNamara joined Bloom in the loss column with the Rams, while James Brimacombe took a loss with the Steelers on Monday Night Football. That's how crazy this season has been, and there are still two weeks to go. We have just two undefeated staff members in the pool (Aaron Rudnicki and Jeff Haseley) and we will once again go over their chances to run the table. Every NFL team is n play the rest of the year, so let's take a look at the possible picks for NFL Week 16.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

It is Christmas Week in the NFL (Week 16), which starts on a Friday and gives us the first-ever "NFL Yahtzee" as we have had a game on every day of the week for the first time possibly ever. Oddly enough, there are once again a large number of heavy favorites this week, with eight games with 7-point favorites or higher. Here's a quick rundown:

• Kansas City (vs. Atlanta, -10.5, -500 to -650 Money Line)
• Baltimore (vs. New York Giants, -10 to -11, -588 to -600 Money Line)
• Cleveland (at New York Jets, -9.5, -435 to -500 Money Line)
• Tampa Bay (at Detroit - Saturday, -9.5, -400 to -475 Money Line)
• Houston (vs. Cincinnati, -8 to -9, -370 to -425 Money Line)
• Chicago (at Jacksonville, -7.5, -350 to -400 Money Line)
• Buffalo (at New England - Monday, -7, -305 to -340 Money Line)
• New Orleans (vs. Minnesota - Friday, -7, -320 to -335 Money Line)

With eight games to choose from and several big spreads and Money Lines, that is a significantly large list to pick from for Week 16. Rather than breaking it down by the full group - as many of these teams have been used by most of the staff - let me start by reviewing our two leaders, and what each of them has left. Focusing on the 13 teams in the NFL that have nine or more wins is a good place to start, given that everyone has made 15 picks and has just two to go. Looking at who has the most options left from this group will really shed some light as to who is in the best position to take down this year's title:

Aaron Rudnicki: Aaron did indeed take the Ravens last week, so let's see if last week's prediction of taking Cleveland this week (at the Jets) holds true. That will leave just Week 17, but he still can do a full fade of the Jets with New England in the season finale. That path alone makes Aaron the favorite for this year's title.

Jeff Haseley: Jeff decided to take the Browns last week, which leaves him with some slim pickings for the last two selections for the year. Chicago or Houston will likely be the pick based on the list of eight games with major favorites.

Of course, anything can happen, but if you are still alive or just a game or two off the pace in your Survivor/Eliminator Pool, it is important to take a look at the top teams and who they have left to choose from, if only to differentiate from their picks. The only way to ensure that is to take a team that they have used already. More on that later in my personal pick comments.

Given that Kansas City (21 of 22 staffers have used them), Baltimore (20), Buffalo (20), New Orleans (18), Tampa Bay (17), and Cleveland (12) have all been selected quite a bit, this looks like a week where many will try and once again use a borderline playoff team in a good spot on the schedule to get a win and move on to the final week. Expect a lot of selections for the Browns (10 staffers still have Cleveland available) or either Chicago or Houston as 16 of 22 staffers have one or both of them available this week once all the picks are in for Week 16.

The picks are coming in late on a Wednesday night on the Eve of Christmas Eve, and the results are rather close to the predictions once again. Both Cleveland and Chicago are the top choices with six selections each, and Tampa Bay came in with third with three choices. Certainly, a lot of the staff are using some Game Theory to decide their picks, as you can read in the individual comments from both myself and Danny amongst others below. Three teams received two votes, and two were expected - Baltimore and Buffalo - but Arizona was a bit of a surprise. The Cardinals are in another must-win spot against the 49ers (Cardinals are -5 and -225 to -240 on the Money Line). Arizona ends the season against the Rams in Los Angeles, and with the Cardinals in the final NFC Wild Card spot with two weeks to play, Arizona will have to take advantage of all the injuries to San Francisco and get the win. The one unique pick for the week was Houston, as not many trusted the Texans this week at home against the Bengals after Cincinnati's big win over the Steelers, but Monday was Cincinnati's Super Bowl for the year and a letdown should be expected. Seven different teams are in the mix this week for the picks, so once again it will be interesting to see how it all plays out by Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator/Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Game theory finally paid off a little last week as Arizona took care of their must-win game at home against the Eagles. As I try and finish strong with two wins, I have both Baltimore and New Orleans at my disposal. Baltimore is the bigger favorite this week at home against the struggling Giants and New Orleans has not looked strong of late. Yes, the Saints are likely in a good spot to reverse that losing trend, but the Ravens are playing far stronger and I would prefer to take them now in a must-win spot to continue to push for the postseason. It also is a nice plus that most of the staff has already used Baltimore, so a win by the Ravens should put me in a good spot to move up the standings.

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Jeff Haseley: Week 16 looks like a great week to take Chicago at Jacksonville. The Jags have the #1 pick in their sights. They can't screw that up, right? That's what I'm afraid of. Chicago is playing well lately. David Montgomery is producing. James Robinson is likely out for Jacksonville. This has all the right feels to take the Bears, which why I feel apprehensive. Am I taking Chicago anyway? Yes. Other options include Arizona vs San Francisco, Washington vs Carolina, or the Chargers vs Denver.

I rank them CHI > ARI > WAS > LAC.

The Pick: Chicago Bears

Will Grant: I know I've been out of it since Week 1, but I'm still trying to finish strong. When it comes to Week 16, it's as much about your final pick as well. This week's options for me include Buffalo, New Orleans, Chicago, and possibly Houston. Looking at Week 17, Buffalo plays Miami and the Bills may be resting players for the playoffs. No point in saving them now then - Buffalo it is. Next week the Saints play the Panthers but they will need that game to keep pace with Green Bay or to hold onto a 1st round bye. I will save the Saints for week 17 and go with Buffalo now.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills

Danny Tuccitto: Both Jeff Haseley and Aaron have the Patriots available against the Jets in Week 17, and Jeff also has the Saints available against the Panthers (provided he doesn't take the Saints this week). Therefore, if I'm to have any chance of tying or passing them at this desperate hour, I need to make sure I'm not taking either New England Or New Orleans next week. And given that I'm realistically going to only have New England and Baltimore available, I therefore must save the Ravens for next week.

So who do I pick this week instead of the Ravens? Well, like almost everyone else ahead of me, I have the triumvirate of Arizona, Chicago, and Houston available as likely winners. Houston's easily the worst overall team of the three according to every advanced rating system known to man, so they're out. Between the Cardinals and Bears, my decision comes down to game theory more than the math of which team is more likely to win.

Jordan has the exact same slate of available picks over these last two weeks, and so, not only do I have to differentiate myself from my two undefeated colleagues, I have to differentiate myself from the person most likely to tie me if everything breaks my way. Therefore, rather than going with Chicago, who I think is more likely to win due to Jacksonville having a hobbled James Robinson and exhibiting all the hallmarks of a dead team walking, I'm going with the Cardinals because my educated guess is that Jordan will be taking the Bears.

The Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Darin Tietgen: I went with Cleveland this week, seeing that the Jets got their requisite one win.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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