There’s a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-yous to projecting the 2019 season for fantasy drafts. And, uh, lotta strands to keep in my head. Lotta strands in old Bloomer's head. Let’s lay them out.
Dallas Cowboys
It’s easy to get excited about this offense with the band back together on the offensive line (Zack Martin’s back willing), Kellen Moore bringing the unit into the 21st century and exciting additions and growth at the skill positions. Amari Cooper has been affected enough by injuries in the past to be wary of taking him at or near ADP with his heel/foot injury potentially lingering or becoming an issue again this season. Michael Gallup has been the subject of universal praise and could be a big winner in fantasy if Cooper is inconsistent. This won’t be a high-volume pass offense, so it might be difficult for Randall Cobb and Jason Witten to find paths to value, but everything intersects at Dak Prescott, who could also get a boost from Tony Pollard in the passing game, even after Ezekiel Elliott eventually reports. An opening schedule of the Giants, Washington, and Miami should equal big points for whoever starts at running back.
Target at ADP: Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard
Avoid at ADP: Amari Cooper
New York Giants
The game doesn’t look too big for Daniel Jones, which is good news for this offense across the board. The only question now is when Jones will take over. A loss at Dallas to open is tolerable, but if Eli Manning can’t win two of three out of Buffalo and Washington at home and Tampa on the road, the calls for Jones will be loud and unceasing. There isn’t a clear handcuff to Barkley with the Giants likely keeping at least two backs behind him, but let us pray we won’t need to know anything about the backups this year. Golden Tate should be an adequate PPR WR3 when he returns, but is that worth carrying for four weeks of suspension? During that time, Evan Engram should be a big beneficiary, and Sterling Shepard to a lesser extent, assuming his thumb is better after the team inexplicably had him practicing with the injury. The bottom line here is that it is difficult to see either receiver greatly overachieving with Barkley at the center of the offense and middling to poor quarterback play.
Target at ADP: Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram
Avoid at ADP: Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard
Philadelphia Eagles
This offense could become the NFC’s version of Kansas City, overflowing with big plays and fantasy goodness. The big difference is that there are four potentially relevant receivers and two relevant tight ends, creating a more unpredictable scoring distribution week to week. It all intersects at Carson Wentz and he should be one of your targets at quarterback. Miles Sanders can blow away his ADP if the coaches feel like they have to feed him over Jordan Howard, but Howard is no slouch. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz aren’t worth the premium they command in drafts with a more level offense. I refuse to go away from Dallas Goedert as a massive breakout candidate even sharing targets because of the mismatches he’ll create. DeSean Jackson’s broken finger is a bummer, but it could get JJ Arcega-Whiteside on the field and they may not be able to put that genie in the bottle, complicating weekly projections even further. Any of these backs, receivers, and tight ends could be outstanding weekly plays if the tree narrows via injury or trade. The best angle on Eagles might be trading for them or adding them on the waiver wire after fantasy players get tired of the ups and downs, and then hoping for developments to consolidate the offense. An opening schedule of Washington, Atlanta, Detroit, and Green Bay should give us an idea of where to slot this team in NFC power rankings.
Target at ADP: Carson Wentz, Dallas Goedert
Avoid at ADP: Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery
Consider at ADP: Miles Sanders
Waiver Wire Speed Dial: JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Washington Redskins
Like Miami, this is an easy offense to just turn the page on when it’s time to draft. I love Derrius Guice’s talent, but sharing with two other backs to any extent in an offense that will be facing a lot of losing game scripts with poor quarterback play is a death knell for fantasy consistency. Trey Quinn is fascinating because he will be the highest percentage target in the slot, but he only fits PPR draft plans with deeper lineups. Otherwise, he’s just emergency depth. Likewise, in certain league formats, Chris Thompson could be valuable as somewhat reliable PPR running back depth as long as he stays healthy. Jordan Reed’s latest concussion makes him undraftable, leaving us in a “waiting for the other shoe to drop” mode. Go with Tyler Eifert if you feel the urge to start an injury riddle tight end Week 1. Terry McLaurin’s summer portends good things in his future, especially when his college quarterback takes over the offense.
Consider at ADP: Trey Quinn
Avoid at ADP: Jordan Reed, Derrius Guice, Adrian Peterson
NFC North
Chicago Bears
There was a lot of negativity about Mitchell Trubisky’s camp, but it’s possible that Matt Nagy uses camp to experiment and evaluate the quality of plays and approaches as opposed to players. Trubisky should be better than last year and that should be enough to rise the tide of Allen Robinson and the offense as a whole. David Montgomery is exciting after having the kind of summer and inspiring the kinds of comments that indicate big things to come. Mike Davis is a good back, but he’s not in Montgomery’s way anymore after lots of offseason comments that made him appear to be a bigger part of this backfield. Trey Burton may get some more work early in the passing game if Anthony Miller isn’t 100%, and Javon Wims is coming on to complicate the passing game target tree even further, but Robison remains atop the pecking order in any event. I’m also excited to see what Cordarrelle Patterson can do as if the team didn’t have enough options to utilize on offense. Burton could be a good early season streamer against the Packers, Broncos, and Washington linebackers but sell high after that.
Target at ADP: Allen Robinson
Consider at ADP: David Montgomery, Mitchell Trubisky
Avoid at ADP: Tarik Cohen
Early-Season Sell High: Trey Burton
Delayed Impact: Anthony Miller
Detroit Lions
Kerryon Johnson has only increased the desire to have him on fantasy rosters when we see what he’s capable of in his second year. The lack of detail about the Frank Ragnow injury puts a little damper on the offensive line continuity advantage, but Arizona and the Chargers are a delicious combination to open the season with on the ground. Matthew Stafford should play better as long as he stays healthy, but Kenny Golladay would need to take a big step forward to justify his ADP. Marvin Jones could be fraying at the edges, but last year showed that Jones being sidelined didn’t always help Golladay’s fantasy outcomes. Jones is still better than his reputation suggests and the Arizona matchup could be a springboard to open the season. T.J. Hockenson may start out as the #2 tight end, but he can change that quickly and I feel remorse for thinking he would be misused when he was drafted. He has a chance to quickly become a prominent target in this pass offense and should be considered with Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews in the upside tight end tier.
Target at ADP: T.J. Hockenson, Kerryon Johnson
Consider at ADP: Marvin Jones
Avoid at ADP: Kenny Golladay
Green Bay Packers
Is the offense really back with the arrival of Matt LaFleur and departure of Mike McCarthy. We’ll know pretty quickly with Chicago, Minnesota, and Denver to open. The next three opponents of Philly, Dallas, and Detroit isn’t exactly a cakewalk either. Rodgers is too expensive with similar upside at quarterback available later. Aaron Jones at least shrugged off his hamstring issue and there’s some buzz of more passing game involvement for him, but other backs in the third have more momentum right now. Jamaal Williams has been banged up, but is the clear handcuff with Tra Carson an outside shot to beat out Dexter Williams for the #3. I’m not targeting Jamaal late because I wouldn’t be too excited to start him if Jones is out. Davante Adams a fine use of a first-round pick, but I like targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the 8th or later better if I want a piece of this passing game. Geronimo Allison’s role is right on the cusp of relevance with more two-tight end sets in the works but that doesn’t make me want to target Jimmy Graham over Greg Olsen or even Tyler Eifert. Robert Tonyan Jr has gotten a lot of positivity from Rodgers, so he’s on my deep dynasty radar, as is Jake Kumerow, another Rodgers favorite who appears poised to make the roster.
Target at ADP: Marquez-Valdes-Scantling
Consider at ADP: Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison
Avoid at ADP: Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams
Waiver Wire Watch List: Jake Kumerow, Robert Tonyan Jr
Minnesota Vikings
This offense looks less boring than it did at the end of the year, so some optimism about Kirk Cousins against not so daunting trio of Atlanta, Green Bay, and Oakland to open is a fine QB1 plan, but I prefer looking for ceiling. Adam Thielen looks more like a wide receiver shelter in the third, but running back is my preferred position in that range. Stefon Diggs is a fine fourth-round pick, but give me Tyler Lockett. Irv Smith has had a good summer, which is more reason to avoid Kyle Rudolph. Alexander Mattison is the #2 behind Dalvin Cook, but Mike Boone is exciting and might end up being the better commodity if Cook goes down. Cook could easily be among the top five fantasy backs as long as he’s healthy and I won’t talk anyone out of taking him.
Consider at ADP: Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Kirk Cousins, Alexander Mattison
Avoid at ADP: Kyle Rudolph
Waiver Wire Watch List: Mike Boone
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Calvin Ridley sounds primed for a step forward and could end up being one of the best picks from the 5th-6th round wide receiver group. Ito Smith appears to have held onto “first running back off of the bench after Devonta Freeman” status, but it seems likely that a committee including at least one of Brian Hill or Qadree Ollison joining Smith would replace Freeman if he went down. It was a delightfully quiet offseason and preseason for Freeman and the Falcons are acting like they expect him to be the back he was before the rash of injuries the last two years. I still can’t fully commit to him or Kerryon Johnson over the other, but those are two backs I like best in the third round. Austin Hooper might get volume, but he adds little value to his targets compared to ADP peers. I’ll let someone else take him. Matt Ryan is a layup as a top 6-8 quarterback in leagues that point per 20 pass yards, 5-6 point passing touchdowns, and performance/big play bonuses. Minnesota to open is rough, but after Philadelphia and the Colts, the Falcons get a run of Tennessee, Houston, and Arizona to build momentum.
Consider at ADP: Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones. Matt Ryan
Target at ADP: Devonta Freeman
Avoid at ADP: Ito Smith, Austin Hooper
Carolina Panthers
I’m not too worried about Cam Newton’s foot but it’s enough to move off of him in a rich QB4-8 tier. Christian McCaffrey is a solid top-two pick until Ezekiel Elliott reports because it doesn’t look like Alvin Kamara’s role is going to grow from last year. The sober take on this offense with two ascending wide receivers is that as long as Greg Olsen and McCaffrey as healthy, they will be boom/bust WR3/Flex types and not season changers. Get the cheaper one, Curtis Samuel, if you want to target a Carolina receiver. Olsen is a fine Plan A at tight end to pair up with a youthful upside pick. The Rams could be a stiff test to open, but Tampa and Arizona will roll out the teal carpet for this offense the next two weeks.
Consider at ADP: Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffery, Greg Olsen
Avoid at ADP: Cam Newton, D.J. Moore
New Orleans Saints
Ted Ginn Jr won’t go away, and he begins the year with Houston, the Rams, and Seattle in a trio of games that could allow him to get free deep, he’s free even in deep leagues. Alvin Kamara will likely remain at about 60% of the snaps if we believe Sean Payton, which is still good enough to a strong RB1. Like Kamara, Michael Thomas isn’t quite as compelling at ADP if we toss out the games at the beginning of the season without Mark Ingram, but he’s still likely to deliver ADP value, with some ups and downs. Jared Cook has been the subject of lots of positive items and should be considered the last tight end on the board with clear top-five upside. Drew Brees is too expensive because of his name-brand value. Latavius Murray is great if you need a high floor RB2 later in your draft, but I prefer taking a rookie back around the time he is going off of the board.
Target at ADP: Jared Cook
Consider at ADP: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
Avoid at ADP: Drew Brees, Latavius Murray
Waiver Wire Watch List: Ted Ginn Jr
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This offense is still primed to be one of the top passing units in the league, and it has shed two top targets at wide receiver, so all of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard have room to grow at already healthy ADPs. Jameis Winston is a matchup QB1, play him vs San Francisco and the Giants Weeks 1 and 3 but be careful Week 2 against Carolina. If he starts strong, he can become an every-week play. Howard is the most exciting target of the big three, if his target rate jumps 2-3 a game from last year, he’ll be destined for the top three tight ends. The backfield has moved from hard avoid because of a three-way committee in a poor running game to be open to Dare Ogunbowale, who has won the PPR friendly third-down job and could do more if he distinguishes himself. Breshad Perriman could be a Week 2 waiver wire wonder as Richard Sherman should be clashing with Evans, leaving Perriman an easier matchup Week 1.
Target at ADP: O.J. Howard, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jameis Winston, Dare Ogunbowale
Avoid at ADP: Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones
Waiver wire watch list: Breshad Perriman
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
I’m officially worried about this offense to start the season… because of the defense. Detroit, Baltimore, and Carolina can play keep away and grind out long drives against a skeleton of a defense up front. With fewer possessions, the margin of error gets very small for the Cardinals offense, so it might be best to be conservative with your Arizona players other than David Johnson until we see the offense have success. The schedule gets a LOT better after that, and all of Cardinals pieces could pay off after that. It does make it easier to break ties against Cardinals and imperative to draft a second quarterback with a favorable early schedule like Lamar Jackson or Kirk Cousins if you take Murray. KeeSean Johnson and Michael Crabtree will be vying to be the #3 receiver, drawing an excellent matchup at times, and Chase Edmonds role is also worth monitoring.
Consider at ADP: David Johnson, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald
Waiver Wire Watch List: Keesean Johnson, Michael Crabtree
Los Angeles Rams
The two new offensive line starters appear to be settling in well, so that should help offset worries about the December/playoffs slump. I trust Sean McVay to reinvent some parts of the offense to stay ahead of the curve. While I’m not targeting any of their receivers at ADP, Cooper Kupp is the most attractive proposition at ADP. Jared Goff is a nice value at ADP, although his first three matchups will test the new interior offensive line. I’ve cooled on Darrell Henderson and he’s now in the Darwin Thompson, Justice Hill tier around the 8th/9th, but he still has potential if he captures the Chris Thompson role. Todd Gurley will make people look smart as long as his knee feels good, but there’s going to be some real suspense watching the game unfold against the Panthers, and then the hard-hitting Saints and Browns front sevens to open. I won’t talk folks out of targeting him in the second, but I won’t. Malcolm Brown is worth stashing to see if his value spikes because Gurley isn’t his old self to open the season. Gerald Everett could break out… on his second team. The Rams will still use both he and Tyler Higbee and keep either from having consistent fantasy value.
Consider at ADP: Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Jared Goff
Waiver Wire Watch List/Late Stash: Malcolm Brown
I’m avoiding at ADP, but understand targeting: Todd Gurley
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo got out of the tailspin in Week 3 of the preseason and opens with Tampa and Cincinnati, so there are crazier plans at quarterback than starting him and seeing where we go from there. The matchups make Marquise Goodwin a good play Week 1 and we’ll see who shines to know which direction to go at wide receiver in Week 2. Dante Pettis is still worth drafting, but he is more of a bench stash than a budding every-week starter for now. No other 49ers wide receiver is worth drafting with so much uncertainty at the position. That also makes George Kittle the clear #2 tight end and a decent bet to be TE1 of Week 1 against the Bucs. He’s a worthy third-round pick even though that area is very running back rich. Matt Breida looks better than Tevin Coleman to me, and if Kyle Shanahan agrees, he could be a huge hit to open the season. Don’t bother with Coleman, take Breida, and keep Raheem Mostert on waiver wire speed dial.
Reach a round or two for: Matt Breida, Marquise Goodwin
Consider at ADP: Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Dante Pettis
Avoid at ADP: Tevin Coleman
Waiver Wire Speed Dial: Raheem Mostert
Seattle Seahawks
Taking Chris Carson and Tyler Lockett at the 3-4 turn might be very smart in hindsight. This is a narrow production tree and Russell Wilson should make the offense at least adequate if not strong against a weak defensive opening schedule and having to carry a weakened defense of his own. That makes Wilson a reasonable QB1 to start the year with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Arizona, the Rams, and Cleveland to open. Rashaad Penny needs a Carson injury for relevance, and I’m not sure that he won’t share with a passing-down back even if he does get a chance to start. I’ll take the Pollard/Thompson/Hill types over him. Jaron Brown is a deep league special as the starter Week 1, but DK Metcalf will be back soon and he’s the clear stash. Don’t forget Jazz Ferguson, the UDFA who can do a Metcalf impression.
Target at ADP: Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf
Consider at ADP: Russell Wilson
Avoid at ADP: Rashaad Penny
Waiver Wire Watch List: Jaron Brown, Jazz Ferguson