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The Best of Footballguys Week 14

Matt Waldman's The Best of Footballguys Week 14
By Matt Waldman, December 6, 2019

The Best of Footballguys Week 14
Photo: USA Today Sports

You guys have a ton of articles.

This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.

If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.

1. David Dodd's Game Predictor

When determining your starting lineups if you're one of those do-it-yourself types who dislike looking at rankings or projections for fear of getting sucked into an analyst's bias or blindspot, Footballguys still delivers enough useful information for you to make strong decisions as you embark on your own. David Dodd's Game Predictor is the first tool that I would recommend for those on this path.

The Game Predictor is our primary tool to establish how each team will attempt to play their game (rush/pass) that week. It factors in the opponent, YTD data, recent games, critical injury information, home/away situations and more. I believe it to be one of the best simulation tools available on the internet and has been refined since its birth on the mrfootball.com website 19 years ago.

While Game Predictor is only 88-93-9 against the spread this year, its record for Over/Unders is 100-88-2. Let's look at the highest projected rushing and passing performances for Week 14:

Rushing (Attempts-Yards-Touchdowns)

  • Baltimore (vs. Buffalo): 34-190-1.2
  • Cleveland (vs. Cincinnati): 29-132-0.9
  • Seattle (vs. L.A. Rams): 30-133-0.8

PassING (ATTEMPTS-Completions-YARDS-TOUCHDOWNS-INterceptions)

  • Atlanta (vs. Carolina): 27-39-307-1.9-1.1
  • Kansas City (vs. New England): 24-37-291-1.6-0.8
  • New England (vs. Kansas City): 25-39-284-1.7-0.8

Matt's Thoughts: Buffalo has been statistically weak against the run for six of the past seven weeks. When I use the phrase "statistically weak," I'm making that assessment based on the efficiency and touches that the runners on opposing offenses earned as an entire depth chart.

This contest has playoff implications so don't expect the Ravens to rest Mark Ingram or Lamar Jackson unless they're coasting into the third quarter as they did in Los Angeles on Monday Night Football two weeks ago. The best chance for this to happen will rest with the Ravens defense.

Josh Allen has made excellent strides this year but Baltimore's defense has the caliber of personnel and blitz schemes to elicit the tilting version of Allen that we saw more often as a rookie and at Wyoming. Don't count on it unless you like the odds of betting Baltimore to beat the spread. Buffalo's defense has some nice pieces but it's a young unit and can make mistakes of aggression that an option offense is good at exploiting. I would count on Ingram and Jackson having strong performances on the ground yet again.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt remain must-starts for Cleveland against Cincinnati but I think we're going to wish one of them earned the vast majority of the touches rather than a split that will make them decent fantasy RB2s or RB3s before you add the touchdown that only one of them will get. Cleveland's offensive line remains a problem (see below) and it forces Chubb to work much harder for his yardage than many backs in top running games.

Despite Carson's league-leading fumbling issue, Seattle remains committed to him even if Rashaad Penny has seen an uptick in production. Look for Carson to earn another 20-carry afternoon against the Rams but it's also not unreasonable to expect to continue earning a minimum of 10-12 touches and generate 1-2 big plays that make him a valuable fantasy runner.

The Falcons should have Austin Hooper and Julio Jones back for the Carolina game and while Jones may not be 100 percent for the contest, which often translates to Jones making some plays and then exiting the game, Jones's presence will help Matt Ryan and the rest of the passing offense. Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, and Ryan are great plays. Jones is worth the risk in leagues with 3-4 receiver spots in starting lineups.

I expect Bill Belichick to blitz Patrick Mahomes II from multiple spots on the field, attempting to bait him into wild flights of reckless play. However, I don't expect it to succeed unless the Chiefs lose Tyreek Hill to injury. Expect Stephon Gilmore to cover Travis Kelce—even so, I wouldn't bench any Chief you've been starting, including Kelce.

New England has only faced one elite tight end this year, Zach Ertz, and Ertz earned 11 targets for 9 catches and 94 yards in Week 11 and the Eagles lack a quality receiving corps due to injuries. Mahomes loves to throw Kelce open and as good as Gilmore is, he is not the perfect matchup answer to stop Kelce.

There's evidence the Chiefs' defense might be a trap matchup for the Patriots. The defense still struggles as a run unit but the coverage wrinkles that Steve Spagnolo has implemented paid off last week.

Still, I wouldn't get carried away with that idea. If you look at the yardage the past four weeks of quarterbacks have earned against the Chiefs, you'll see three performances of less than 230 yards but keep in mind that Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Derek Carr work with strong ground games.

Brady still had a 320-yard, 3-touchdown performance against the Texans last week after five consecutive mediocre or bad performances. I think there are safer matchups than Brady-Kansas City and while I'm not ready to call this a bust week, I don't expect Brady to exceed 260 yards. Brady, Edelman, and White are the only three components of the passing game I trust enough for consideration.

2. Matt Bitonti's Offensive line Rankings

Here are some key changes in Bitonti's weekly rankings and analysis of these units that should reinforce your thoughts about Week 14 matchups (my thoughts in bold):

PITTSBURGH UP 11 SLOTS

This upgrade is based upon the certain return of talented center Maurkice Pouncey to the starting lineup. Pouncey should be well-rested and ready to go this weekend against Arizona after a two-game suspension he incurred for his role in the Myles Garrett fight. In an interview on the Steelers' official site, Pouncey pointed out his replacement B.J. Finney "made himself money." Finney is due to be a free agent in the offseason and should cash in on the open market. Still, Pouncey is a far superior player and his return boosts this offensive line's grade into the elite top-5 region of the rankings. Expect another strong week from Benny Snell and James Washington. I'd take a flier on Vance McDonald.

GREEN BAY UP 4 SLOTS

Speaking of players toughing out their injuries, right tackle Bryan Bulaga's knee sprain appeared serious prior to the game in New York last week. Bulaga was questionable and not expected to play by these rankings. Bulaga not only did his job, he looked downright nimble at times blocking in space. A warrior's effort from Bulaga leads Green Bay's offensive line into the top-tier of the grades. Start Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams as potential fantasy RB2 and RB3, respectively. Expect another strong week from Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.

SAN FRANCISCO UP 12 SLOTS

Another projection, as left tackle Joe Staley rejoined practice this week prior to the NFC clash at New Orleans. Staley had missed several games earlier in the season with a broken leg, and then a few games more with a severely dislocated finger. Both injuries required surgery but Staley should be an upgrade over Daniel Brunskill in the lineup. While the offense has performed at a high level all season, having a healthy Staley could open the playbook even more for the coaching staff. Assuming their veteran left tackle is ready to go, this line carries borderline top-tier grade in the latest rankings. A lot of analysts are leaning on Raheem Mostert and while I recommend adding him and starting him if you need a second running back, a healthy Matt Breida is the superior talent and I would not get too starry-eyed about Mostert shutting out Breida from the backfield. The addition of Staley will help both players. Don't be surprised if Kyle Juszczyk has an underrated PPR day as a receiver alongside the always startable George Kittle.

LA RAMS UP 16 SLOTS

After missing several games with a knee injury, right tackle Rob Havenstein practiced in a limited fashion. While replacement Bobby Evans has been excellent, having Havenstein available against Jadeveon Clowney and the Seattle defensive front seven is good news. Sunday Night Football is a crucial game for the Rams' playoff chances and this line is a mid-tier group in the latest grades. Todd Gurley will earn his volume regardless but expect Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp to carry over their strong play from last weekend.

CLEVELAND DOWN 7 SLOTS

This is a downgrade due to general injury uncertainty. Four out of the five starters are on the injury report going into this week's game against Cincinnati. Center J.C. Tretter did not practice with a knee injury and right tackle Chris Hubbard also has a knee situation of his own. Wyatt Teller and Greg Robinson are also listed as questionable. The model has all these players gutting it out but anytime Dr. Jene Bramel uses the "awaiting information" phrase on his mid-week injury report four times for one offensive line, it has to bring some pause. While Chubb and Hunt are startable the injuries mean a lower likelihood of big runs from either back. Expect strong volume for Chubb and a lot of receiving looks for Hunt but the lack of big plays to raise their efficiency. If the Bengals earn pressure on Baker Mayfield, expect only Jarvis Landry to deliver as a produtive option in the passing game.

NEW ENGLAND DOWN 10 SLOTS

James Ferentz becomes the third starting center of the season for New England, as Ted Karras left the Houston game with what appears to be a multi-week injury. Ferentz is a smart but undersized player and will be targeted this week by an aggressive Kansas City defensive front seven. This team has an excellent win-loss record but the offensive line has been in the low-tier of the rankings almost all season due to injury. Chris Jones is a monster to defend and will get interior pressure on Tom Brady. If he can rush Brady, some of the revamped coverage looks might force Brady into rare mistakes. I'm couting on the pressure and sacks but not the interceptions. Brady is still startable but I don't think he reaches the projected heights of Game Predictor.

3. Chad Parson's DFS Roundtable: Low-Salary Dart Throws

This week, Parson's panel discusses the low-salary options for DFS lineups this weekend. Here are some of the dart throws that I like from their discussion:

A.J. Brown (Phil Alexander)
Tennessee at Oakland has the makings of a sneaky shootout (over/under 47.5) and Brown has a clear talent advantage over Raiders cornerback Trayvon Mullen, who has allowed more yards per snap in coverage than any other cornerback expected to be active this week.

Terry McLaurin (Justin Howe)
Dwayne Haskins has been no savior to the Washington passing game, but Terry McLaurin’s price tag has dipped too low. Even with the team going so run-heavy for Haskins, McLaurin has drawn 26 targets over those 4 starts, including 12 against the Lions just 2 weeks ago. McLaurin doesn’t boast much touchdown upside in this offense, but it’s worth noting he did “catch” a touchdown last week, albeit after stepping out of bounds.
Williams is one of the starkest candidates for positive regression that DFS has to offer. He’s producing 71 yards a game as the Chargers’ No. 2 or 3 weekly option, though somehow he’s yet to find the end zone here in 2019. His Week 14 matchup is solid, and he’s beyond due for a touchdown after scoring on 23% of his catches last season.

Matt's Thoughts: Sigmund Bloom noted on this week's Audible Live that he thought Mullen held his own with Tyreek Hill last week. Mullen strikes me as a physical player but Brown's combination of strength and quickness might offer more difficulties than Hill's pure speed and I don't expect the Raiders to plaster Mullen on Brown all day. The Raiders are still vulnerable over the middle and Brown will be running through there with targets coming his way on Sunday.

McLaurin's sterling rookie play is worth sticking with him, especially with Green Bay expected to be in the 40s on Sunday and with only a 20 percent chance of precipitation and manageable winds. Williams is making excellent plays when Philip Rivers finds him. Jacksonville doesn't give up many touchdowns to receivers so if you consider him, expect 4-6 catches and 50-80 yards.

4. The Top 10: Drew Lock's Debut

This weekend, I evaluated Denver's rookie quarterback Drew Lock for Week 14's The Top 10. It got some buzz around the interwebs, so figured I'd reshare it for those of you who didn't see it:

It became clear a few weeks ago that Denver was on the brink of elimination from playoff contention and we'd likely see rookie Drew Lock once it became official. This weekend Lock made his debut under center at home against the Chargers.

Overall, Lock performed with poise at both ends of the field where quick thinking and wise management are most important, he showed off a strong arm and some skill for off-platform throws, and he demonstrated an aggressive mindset and good placement in the vertical game.

Overall, Lock made more plays to put Denver in a position to win than mistakes that put his team in a hole. Many of those mistakes are typical issues involving common misreads of coverage among quarterbacks at all levels as well as miscommunications that new starters have with its receivers.

The greatest long-term concerns with Lock have to do with his penchant for off-platform throws where he relies too much on his arm talent. There was a contingent of football analysts who compared Lock favorably to Patrick Mahomes II in this respect but these takes overestimate Lock's skill and underestimate the repeatable accuracy, vision of the field, and range of arm talent that Mahomes displays to pull off these plays.

The source of this false comparison stems from the weight these analysts give collegiate success. However, they aren't using a systematic fashion to rate the quality of field vision, range of accuracy, and consistency of accuracy of these types of throws. As a result, Lock earns the benefit of the doubt because he piloted a winning program in the SEC and did so with solid-to-strong production that included occasional highlight throws that look similar in some respects to Mahomes.

High school and college coaches enabled both Mahomes and Lock's throwing behaviors because they were top athletes at these levels who could produce and help offenses win. Mahomes' physical skills, mental acumen for seeing the field, and a logic underpinning his decisions for abandoning traditional throwing platforms made sense in a way that made this behavior projectable for the NFL despite the fact that few did so.

Lock lacks the range of Mahomes and his vision and decision-making for going off-platform are neither as strong or as reliably logical. Much of Lock's behavior is rooted in laziness rather than a systematic behavior to generate solutions that are superior to setting one's feet and firing from a static position that we see from Mahomes.

Lock performed well considering the circumstances he's in as a first-time starter and rookie playing against a defense that doesn't have any NFL game tape to analyze his tendencies. It will take at least 3-4 weeks before we see a team specifically a game plan for a quarterback's specific habits, which means we should continue to see evidence of the things Lock did well against the Chargers that translated well from his college game.

Expect big plays in the vertical game and some balance at buying time but quick thinking and imaginative throwing in the red zone and other short-range targets. If he continued to display wise decision-making deep in his own territory as well as the red zone, Denver's defense is still good enough to help the offense stay in games. I think Lock will have another good game against Houston in Week 14. If the Lions secondary gets healthy and the Chiefs continue gelling as they displayed this weekend (see below), expect more bust in Lock's boom-bust potential in Weeks 15-16.

Long-term, I've come to the belief that quarterbacks usually require 18-24 NFL games before we clearly see how their potential translates to the field and which major issues are correctable or at least problems that teams can either work around and/or cope with successfully. For Lock, it means we will need to see things that he didn't display on Sunday or consistently enough at Missouri—elevated diagnostic skills of the defense pre-snap and immediately post-snap, refined footwork under pressure where quick and precise movement is necessary for accurate execution, and refined understanding of his limitations with his off-platform play.

5. Ryan Zamichieli's Sharp Report

Zamichieli makes weekly DFS recommendations based on who the best DFS managers are using. Here are his previously projected Sharp Plays:

PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS

Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)

  • 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)

  • 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)

  • 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)

  • 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)

  • 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)

  • 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)

  • 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)

  • 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)

  • 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)

  • 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)

  • 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)

  • 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)

  • 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 12: Alvin Kamara- 14.7 FanDuel points (1.8x value)/19.2 DraftKings points (2.3x value)

  • 90 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

Week 13: Davante Adams- 21.4 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.4 DraftKings points (3.5x value)

  • 45 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50

The only true dud of the season has been Brian Hill. This week, Zamichieli recommends Deshaun Watson against the Broncos. Here's his rationale:

In Week 14, the go-to quarterback option amongst sharp NFL DFS players will likely be Deshaun Watson in cash games. Watson and the Houston Texans play host to the Denver Broncos in a game that the Texans are projected to win by about 10 points. Although a presumably dominant victory like this typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack, the Houston Texans lack a reliable running game, and Deshaun Watson typically thrives in these situations.

Although Vic Fangio's Broncos opened the season as an impressive defensive unit, injuries have decimated their pass-rush. Bradley Chubb went down earlier this season with an injury that will keep him sidelined until 2020, and Von Miller missed last week's game with a knee injury. Miller, as one of the most-impactful pass-rushers in the NFL, is a critical component to Denver's defense, and his absence would be devastating to the unit.

Over the last three weeks, when they've been bit the hardest by the proverbial injury bug, the Denver Broncos have allowed three multi-touchdown performances from opposing quarterbacks. As one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, Watson should have no trouble adding a fourth tally to that list in Week 14, especially if Von Miller is watching from the sidelines.

Lastly, since the Texans are at home this weekend, the game will be played indoors at NRG Stadium. Playing indoors in December is a significant advantage for offenses in fantasy football, as they are shielded from any adverse weather conditions associated with the cold weather. Expect Watson to be the most popular quarterback option in cash games for the sharpest NFL DFS players in Week 14.

Matt's Thoughts: Will Fuller didn't do much against the Vikings but his 140-yard day a week prior should keep the Broncos secondary on its heels. DeAndre Hopkins should get his, as usual. Where Watson's production could, at worst, deliver upon expectation is with the tight ends and running backs in the passing game against linebacker Todd Davis, who struggles mightily in coverage. Look for Duke Johnson Jr, Darren Fells, and Jordan Akins to get some love this weekend.

Good luck this weekend and I hope to see you on the other side!

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags strategy Davante Adams Nelson Agholor Jordan Akins Josh Allen Tom Brady Matt Breida A.J. Brown Derek Carr Bradley Chubb Nick Chubb Jadeveon Clowney Dalvin Cook Kirk Cousins Austin Ekeler Evan Engram Zach Ertz Darren Fells Leonard Fournette Will Fuller V Myles Garrett Stephon Gilmore Dwayne Haskins Brian Hill Tyreek Hill Austin Hooper DeAndre Hopkins Kareem Hunt Mark Ingram II Lamar Jackson Duke Johnson Jr Aaron Jones Chris Jones Julio Jones Kyle Juszczyk Alvin Kamara Travis Kelce George Kittle Cooper Kupp Jarvis Landry Allen Lazard Drew Lock Tyler Lockett Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Terry McLaurin Von Miller Raheem Mostert Trayvon Mullen Rashaad Penny Calvin Ridley Matt Ryan Benny Snell Jr. Courtland Sutton Ryan Tannehill Auden Tate Michael Thomas James Washington Deshaun Watson Jamaal Williams Mike Williams Robert Woods

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