One of the interesting NFL trends has been the diminished importance of preseason football. More teams are either completely holding out starters all four weeks or limiting them to very few snaps. It feels like we have less information to go on than in past years and has helped contribute to the fact there has been surprisingly little real movement at most positions from where we started in August.
The one exception is running back. The news has been fast and furious -- especially the past few days -- when it comes to depth chart battles and players changing teams. Expect this volatility to continue in a big way throughout September as we see some young players emerge and some veterans solidify their short-term value. You should be thinking hard about if you want to cash in on the hype for hot prospects and trade them while their value is high or if you think they have real staying power.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes values for Superflex leagues. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league and adjust accordingly. A trade value chart for 2020 rookie picks is also included below the four positional breakdowns.
Quarterback
|
Pos Rank
|
Quarterback
|
Value
|
Superflex
|
|
1
|
25
|
60
|
|
|
2
|
13
|
50
|
|
|
3
|
10
|
40
|
|
|
4
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
5
|
8
|
29
|
|
|
6
|
8
|
28
|
|
|
7
|
7
|
27
|
|
|
8
|
7
|
27
|
|
|
9
|
7
|
26
|
|
|
10
|
7
|
25
|
|
|
11
|
6
|
22
|
|
|
12
|
5
|
23
|
|
|
13
|
4
|
20
|
|
|
14
|
Mitchell Trubisky
|
4
|
18
|
|
15
|
4
|
18
|
|
|
16
|
4
|
16
|
|
|
17
|
4
|
16
|
|
|
18
|
3
|
16
|
|
|
19
|
3
|
10
|
|
|
20
|
3
|
10
|
|
|
21
|
3
|
9
|
|
|
22
|
2
|
13
|
|
|
23
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
24
|
2
|
12
|
|
|
25
|
2
|
10
|
|
|
26
|
2
|
10
|
|
|
27
|
2
|
8
|
|
|
28
|
2
|
7
|
|
|
29
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
30
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
31
|
0
|
8
|
|
|
32
|
0
|
6
|
|
|
33
|
0
|
6
|
|
|
34
|
0
|
4
|
|
|
35
|
0
|
4
|
|
|
36
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
37
|
0
|
3
|
|
|
38
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
39
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
40
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
41
|
0
|
2
|
|
|
42
|
0
|
1
|
The Luck fallout
Jason Wood did a great instant analysis piece on the redraft fallout from Luck’s retirement that is worth checking out. We need to analyze some of the dynasty fallout as well. There are so many angles here, including the value of Andrew Luck, the value of Jacoby Brissett, and the impact on other quarterbacks.
1. Andrew Luck’s value
In a single quarterback league, there is no reason to hold onto Luck unless rosters are incredibly deep. In Superflex leagues, it is a much tougher choice and depends on the depth of rosters. If you can spare the roster spot, it probably makes sense to keep him. It is impossible to match hard dynasty trade value numbers to cases like this but we can use conditional probability to get a ballpark value. We need to estimate two numbers and then multiply:
-What are the chances Luck comes back in the next two or three years?
-What would Luck’s Superflex value be if he did come back as a 31 or 32-year old?
Luck was pretty emphatic at his press conference that he was done. Things change but it feels like a long shot he will ever come back. We can estimate the odds of his return at 10%. If he did return, Luck would not instantly regain his full dynasty trade value of a month ago. He would have missed multiple seasons of his prime and we can assume we probably wouldn’t feel great about his longevity and the odds he would play until almost 40-years old if he returned. Rust would also be an issue. His value in this scenario might be similar to that of Kirk Cousins (15) today. A 10% chance of a player with a trade value of 15 gives us a trade value of 1.5, which is similar to a 4th-round rookie pick. That’s where I see Luck’s Superflex value as of today. Adjust the numbers above as you see fit to determine whether Luck is a buy, sell, hold, or drop for you personally.
2.Jacoby Brissett’s value
The recent contract extension signed by Brissett is a strong sign the Colts view him as at least the medium-term answer at quarterback. Some have minimized the move by pointing to the fact that he is now making just $15M per year over the next two seasons, which is near the bottom of the starting quarterback market. However, Brissett was already under contract for 2019 at a salary of $2M. Indianapolis gave him $28M of new money for one extra year of team control. It is the rough equivalent of paying him the value of the 2020 franchise tag in advance. This is a big leap of faith from the Colts front office and should influence how you view the odds we will discuss below. As we did with Luck, we can break this down in terms of conditional probabilities and do some grade school math. Plug in your own numbers based upon your beliefs and figure out how you value Brissett to the below questions:
-What are the chances Brissett locks down the starting job and is a solid long-term fantasy QB2? What’s his Superflex dynasty value if we assume this happens?
-What are the chances Brissett is just okay for the next two or three seasons and the Colts decide in 2021 or 2022 they need an upgrade? What’s his Superflex dynasty value if we assume this outcome?
-What are the chances Brissett crashes and burns and is quickly out of a job?
My numbers look like this: a 40% chance he is a long-term starter with a Superflex dynasty trade value of 20, a 40% chance he lasts a couple of years putting up Blake Bortles-type numbers before losing his job for a Superflex dynasty trade value of 8, and a 20% chance he quickly flames out and has no real value. The math: (.4 x 20) +(.4 x 8) +(.2 x 0)=11.2 That means Brissett should be worth about 11 in Superflex dynasty trade value if you agree with these assumptions. This valuation also seems to match the market for him from what I have seen in early Superflex league trades since the Luck news broke.
3. Impact on other quarterbacks
Luck’s retirement doesn’t have a huge impact on quarterbacks on other teams but it does change the dynasty landscape at the position somewhat. Deshaun Watson’s value has been rising on both his own merits and the moves the Texans have made (Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and Duke Johnson Jr) to improve his protection and weapons. He also now looks like the clear dynasty QB2 with one of his main challengers for that ranking retired. There is one less elite fantasy quarterback under the age of 30, so the rest of the young franchise passers all get a small boost and move up a spot in the rankings.
Other movers at the quarterback position
-Jarrett Stidham: Stidham had the best rookie preseason of any Bill Belichick quarterback selection and the Patriots decision to cut Brian Hoyer and trust Stidham on as the No. 2 behind Brady shows tremendous faith in him. We need to up the odds that Stidham is the eventual Brady replacement and start treating him as a solid Superflex asset. Superflex owners in need of some young depth at the position should see if they can steal Brissett for a future 3rd-rounder or the equivalent.
-Daniel Jones: Jones had a strong preseason and has seen his dynasty stock rise, especially in Superflex leagues. Former Footballguy Matt Harmon did a fun podcast yesterday on Jones that is worth a listen. Jones doesn’t look like he is going to be a disaster and as long as he isn’t terrible, he is going to get quite a few years to prove himself as the Giants starter given the draft capital involved.
Running Back
|
Pos Rank
|
Running Back
|
Value
|
|
1
|
65
|
|
|
2
|
60
|
|
|
3
|
58
|
|
|
4
|
52
|
|
|
5
|
38
|
|
|
6
|
36
|
|
|
7
|
32
|
|
|
8
|
32
|
|
|
9
|
30
|
|
|
10
|
30
|
|
|
11
|
26
|
|
|
12
|
26
|
|
|
13
|
25
|
|
|
14
|
Melvin Gordon
|
24
|
|
15
|
24
|
|
|
16
|
22
|
|
|
17
|
22
|
|
|
18
|
21
|
|
|
19
|
18
|
|
|
20
|
17
|
|
|
21
|
15
|
|
|
22
|
15
|
|
|
23
|
14
|
|
|
24
|
14
|
|
|
25
|
13
|
|
|
26
|
12
|
|
|
27
|
12
|
|
|
28
|
10
|
|
|
29
|
10
|
|
|
30
|
10
|
|
|
31
|
10
|
|
|
32
|
Darrell Henderson
|
9
|
|
33
|
8
|
|
|
34
|
8
|
|
|
35
|
8
|
|
|
36
|
8
|
|
|
37
|
8
|
|
|
38
|
8
|
|
|
39
|
8
|
|
|
40
|
8
|
|
|
41
|
Mark Ingram
|
8
|
|
42
|
7
|
|
|
43
|
7
|
|
|
44
|
7
|
|
|
45
|
7
|
|
|
46
|
6
|
|
|
47
|
6
|
|
|
48
|
6
|
|
|
49
|
6
|
|
|
50
|
6
|
|
|
51
|
Ronald Jones
|
4
|
|
52
|
4
|
|
|
53
|
4
|
|
|
54
|
4
|
|
|
55
|
4
|
|
|
56
|
3
|
|
|
57
|
3
|
|
|
58
|
Benny Snell
|
3
|
|
59
|
3
|
|
|
60
|
3
|
|
|
61
|
3
|
|
|
62
|
2
|
|
|
63
|
2
|
|
|
64
|
2
|
|
|
65
|
2
|
|
|
66
|
2
|
|
|
67
|
2
|
|
|
68
|
1
|
|
|
69
|
DOnta Foreman
|
1
|
|
70
|
1
|
Volatility reminder
Relative positional value and big picture roster-building strategy is more of an offseason topic and not something to spend too much time on at the eve of the regular season. However, it is impossible not to talk about the wild value swings we’ve seen over the past month at the running back position. Players like Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, Lesean McCoy, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Lamar Miller, Duke Johnson Jr, Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Derrius Guice, Tony Pollard, and others have seen fairly significant movement in their dynasty trade values.
We don’t see this many big value swings at any other position. Now, that is a double-edged sword. If you are looking for a safe store of value, only the truly elite running backs provide it at this position. It can be scary spending big dynasty startup or rookie draft capital on a running back. The bottom can fall out pretty quickly. If you want to play it safe, invest premium draft assets into other positions. However, you also aren’t going to see the big value leaps at other positions as we’ve seen with Devin Singletary, Darwin Thompson, Tony Pollard, and other rookie running backs. If you are willing to make more of a risk-reward based roster-building approach or have a bad team than needs to hit some home runs to scrape back into contention, running back is the place to look.
Running back risers
-James Conner: It doesn’t look like Jaylen Samuels is going to eat into Conner’s pass targets as much as we feared. Plus, Benny Snell didn’t do anything to look like he is going to seriously challenge for goal-line work or force his way into a rotation. The arrow is pointing up for Conner.
-Josh Jacobs: The Raiders didn’t want to expose Jacobs to many hits in the preseason, so we haven’t seen much of him. But by all accounts, Jacobs has impressed as a pass catcher and did what he needed to lock down the lead job in Oakland. Jacobs could have a big rookie season at age 21. We could be talking about him as a first or second-round startup pick next offseason.
-Derrius Guice: The complications from Guice’s knee surgery understandably scared dynasty owners. However, those fears have mostly been put to rest by Guice’s strong August. “It’s not so much about Samaje as it is about Derrius Guice, how much faith we have in him to carry the ball,” Jay Gruden said of the release of Samaje Perine. “We drafted him for a reason. We feel like he can be a first-, second- and even third-down back if needed. The offense, carries-wise, will probably go through him, pretty much.” This quote has to be music to the ears of anyone who drafted Guice in 2018 rookie drafts.
-Devin Singletary: For those who use draft capital as a big part of their rookie draft process, Singletary’s lack of buzz provided a buy-low opportunity. Singletary was the No. 74 overall pick, which was one pick behind David Montgomery. One was going off the board between 1.01 and 1.04 all offseason while the other was a 2nd-rounder. The vast discrepancy probably wasn’t justified and that isn’t a knock on Montgomery. Clearly, Buffalo thought highly of Singletary and had big plans for him. We are seeing signs of this playing out right in front of us. LeSean McCoy was cut and Singletary looks like he should lead this backfield in touches as a rookie. His stock is up and he would certainly be a first-round rookie pick if we ran back those rookie drafts we did in May and June.
-Chris Carson: Seattle led the NFL in rushing attempts last season. Carson easily held off Rashaad Penny to retain the lead role in the backfield. His offensive coordinator is talking about significantly increasing his pass-game usage. He doesn’t turn 25-years old until later this month. There is a ton to like about Chris Carson and we now have more than enough data points to put aside any assumptions we had about draft capital spent by the Seahawks and start viewing Carson as a valuable dynasty asset over the medium-term.
-Matt Breida: With Jerick McKinnon landing on IR for a second-straight season, Breida is once again positioned for a substantial role in the 49ers backfield. For running back-needy dynasty teams, he makes for a strong trade target.
Wide Receiver
|
Pos Rank
|
Wide Receiver
|
Value
|
|
1
|
48
|
|
|
2
|
47
|
|
|
3
|
Odell Beckham
|
47
|
|
4
|
47
|
|
|
5
|
45
|
|
|
6
|
40
|
|
|
7
|
38
|
|
|
8
|
30
|
|
|
9
|
29
|
|
|
10
|
27
|
|
|
11
|
27
|
|
|
12
|
24
|
|
|
13
|
23
|
|
|
14
|
22
|
|
|
15
|
22
|
|
|
16
|
D.J. Moore
|
19
|
|
17
|
19
|
|
|
18
|
18
|
|
|
19
|
17
|
|
|
20
|
17
|
|
|
21
|
17
|
|
|
22
|
17
|
|
|
23
|
17
|
|
|
24
|
Allen Robinson
|
16
|
|
25
|
14
|
|
|
26
|
14
|
|
|
27
|
14
|
|
|
28
|
14
|
|
|
29
|
14
|
|
|
30
|
14
|
|
|
31
|
14
|
|
|
32
|
N'Keal Harry
|
12
|
|
33
|
12
|
|
|
34
|
Robby Anderson
|
12
|
|
35
|
11
|
|
|
36
|
11
|
|
|
37
|
Will Fuller
|
11
|
|
38
|
11
|
|
|
39
|
11
|
|
|
40
|
11
|
|
|
41
|
11
|
|
|
42
|
10
|
|
|
43
|
10
|
|
|
44
|
9
|
|
|
45
|
9
|
|
|
46
|
9
|
|
|
47
|
9
|
|
|
48
|
8
|
|
|
49
|
Mecole Hardman
|
8
|
|
50
|
8
|
|
|
51
|
8
|
|
|
52
|
7
|
|
|
53
|
7
|
|
|
54
|
7
|
|
|
55
|
7
|
|
|
56
|
7
|
|
|
57
|
7
|
|
|
58
|
Marvin Jones
|
6
|
|
59
|
TreQuan Smith
|
6
|
|
60
|
6
|
|
|
61
|
6
|
|
|
62
|
6
|
|
|
63
|
6
|
|
|
64
|
6
|
|
|
65
|
6
|
|
|
66
|
5
|
|
|
67
|
5
|
|
|
68
|
5
|
|
|
69
|
4
|
|
|
70
|
4
|
|
|
71
|
4
|
|
|
72
|
Daesean Hamilton
|
4
|
|
73
|
4
|
|
|
74
|
4
|
|
|
75
|
4
|
|
|
76
|
Jakobi Myers
|
4
|
|
77
|
4
|
|
|
78
|
4
|
|
|
79
|
4
|
|
|
80
|
3
|
|
|
81
|
3
|
|
|
82
|
3
|
|
|
83
|
3
|
|
|
84
|
3
|
|
|
85
|
2
|
|
|
86
|
2
|
|
|
87
|
2
|
|
|
88
|
Desean Jackson
|
2
|
|
89
|
2
|
|
|
90
|
1
|
|
|
91
|
1
|
|
|
92
|
1
|
Positional stability
We talked about the big value swings at running back based upon preseason performances, trades, and roster battles. It is notable just how little has changed at the wide receiver position despite a boatload of new data points from August. To steal a phrase from Denny Green, the top receivers are who we thought they were. The top of the rankings remains virtually unchanged and there has been surprisingly little movement in general. We were ahead of the curve on the value rises of players like Chris Godwin, Curtis Samuel, and Mike Williams, so any boosts to their value were mostly baked in already. We were also a little bit ahead of the curve on the devaluation of the receivers in their 30s. Thus, much of the fall in values of players like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green was already accounted for prior to some recent negative news and the reality of the age-related negatives setting in for most of the dynasty community. We also need to re