articles

The Top 10

Matt Waldman's The Top 10
By Matt Waldman, September 19, 2016

The Top 10
Photo: USA Today Sports

Week 2: Overofficious 

We all prefer our officials to blend into the background until there's reason to pull make a correction in the flow of the game and prevent it from deteriorating into chaos. But if I must notice them for the wrong reasons, I prefer a blend of personal annoyance and amusement.

Ed Hochuli's devotion to the weights so he can write, direct, and star in his weekly show The Bicep Monologues. Gene Steratore borrowing Ed's gym membership card so he can sneak off to the tanning booth after a few sets of arm curls. Jerome Boger's weekly issues turning on his microphone—he's only a 13-year veteran of officiating—that forces him to signal the penalty at least four times before he gets his hands, mouth, and mic in sync. 

I'm grateful that retired Army Reserve Colonel Jeff Triplette, a recipient of the Bronze Star, for his actions in the Persian Gulf War but someone needed to tell him that he didn't need to throw his flag at the rule-breaking player like it was a hand grenade. Triplette's overzealous desire to "get his man", got offensive lineman Orlando "Zeus" Brown in the eye. It was an accident, but nothing like temporarily blinding a guy and costing him a season.

I fear the league and NFL Chief Hall Monitor Roger Goodell have created an environment of overofficious junior patrolmen who appear too keen about make their mark on the outcome of games.

It's not just these two rules where it's happening. Eric Ebron's offensive pass interference call in the end zone must have been a product of a Triplette-trained official still recovering from one of Col. Sure-Shot's dead-on sniper tosses. If Ebron pushed off on that play, it wasn't in this reality.

Where this is most disturbing is the Calvin Johnson Rule (the name it's known for completely tells you how asinine it is—it would be like calling an award for the worst acting performance of the year, "The Sir Laurence Olivier"). and the new Taunting Rule. I get that the Odell Beckham-Josh Norman debacle was a big deal but give them harsher punishments upon review when the officials screwed up and didn't eject Beckham.

Don't ask them to be the feelings police. You wind up with horrific decisions like the call against Terrelle Pryor for hitting Lardarius Webb's helmet with the football. The way I described it sounds bad, but Pryor was trying to flip the ball towards one official while Webb was rising to his feet between the two. A second official saw the ball bounce off Webb's helmet and called the taunting foul on Pryor.

This happened after Pryor made an excellent catch inside the Baltimore 10 with less than 30 seconds in the game and Webb was called for holding Pryor during the receiver's break. It was a clutch catch that put the Browns in the red area with four downs worth of time remaining to retake the lead and the hall monitor misread the situation. 

Think I'm wrong? The official Pryor tossed the ball towards extended his arms because he understood the receiver's motivations. The Hall Monitor's R Us Rule turned the defensive foul on Webb and the catch into an offsetting penalty and a replay of the down. 

Worse yet, neither official spoke to the other to clear this up and the next play Josh McCown—who busted up his shoulder in the first quarter and continued putting Cleveland in positions to win despite getting punished all game long—throws an interception at the goal line from well outside the Ravens' 30. I'm a Browns fan and I'll always hold a grudge for the Ravens organization. But it's not about that.

I'm used to the Browns losing. What I hate more is the NFL deciding games with the letter of the law and poor communication. I don't want school marm's running the game who don't understand the spirit of the law. 

On to this week's Top 10.

1. Don't Call it a comeback: Steve Smith and Victor Cruz

After seeing all three receivers play, I'm now optimistic that they have a strong shot of delivering fantasy value this year. I read somewhere that Smith's production on Sunday wasn't in meaningful situations and this couldn't be less accurate.

Smith set up Justin Tucker's 52-yard field goal at the end of the half with a curl-out in the waning seconds. Early in the third quarter, Smith beat the safety on an out route to convert a third down and for the show-stopper, he beat Browns' Joe Haden (who intercepted Joe Flacco twice in man coverage on Sunday) on a go route and a diving grab to put the Ravens inside the Cleveland 20.

 

 

Two plays later, Flacco found Mike Wallace up the left side for a touchdown that narrowed the Cleveland lead to a point.

Smith may not be the Mighty Mouse he was before the injury but Joe Haden is still a solid cover cornerback with the speed and savvy to beat the likes of speedster Breshard Perriman and hold off Mike Wallace. The fact that Smith could win a route on Haden after what he did to his Achilles makes him worth consideration as a bye-week value who could develop into a good fantasy WR3 bye mid-year. If Smith is on a roster and you're negotiating a deal with another player as the central prospect, see if you can get Smith as a throw-in.

Cruz's play is even more obvious. He had a 43-yard catch and run that ended with the same Saints defensive back he initially beat punching the ball loose and New Orleans recovering.

But Cruz had other moments, including the game-changing, fourth-quarter catch in tight man coverage up the right sideline that set up the game-winning field goal at the Saints' two.

 

 

Despite a couple of drops and that fumble, the important point is that Cruz played 74 of 79 snaps, he's getting open, and he's often doing it on the perimeter against single coverage. If you can get Cruz as a throw-in, he might become a solid WR3 with WR2 upside sooner than you think.

2. Corey Coleman Giveth, Corey Coleman Taketh AWay

Josh McCown's shoulder injury could prove serious enough that the Browns offense takes a fantasy nosedive for several weeks but these are the moments to consider players like Coleman who could come up big in December if McCown returns. The rookie receiver was the player I most wanted to watch heading into Sunday afternoon and in terms of fantasy potential, he didn't disappoint. 

 

 

 And that was just part of a double-bill...

 

 

Coleman, McCown, and Isaiah Crowell put the Browns up 20-2 in the second quarter. But when the Ravens fixed its early-game issues and turned the contest into a game, Coleman had nearly as many mistakes as he did big plays by the end of the day.  

He stepped out of bounds while working open to help a scrambling and heroic effort from Josh McCown, nullifying a big play that could have kept a drive alive during a scoreless second half for the Browns. Later, Coleman followed up a big catch that got Cleveland in the red zone with a personal foul that led to a 3rd and 28 at the Ravens' 34. Cleveland had to settle for a field goal attempt, which it missed.

Even so, I'd act on the doom and gloom surrounding Cleveland. He's the one player in this offense capable of winning anywhere on the field and the easiest for a less experienced quarterback to access. If you can get him now, or in a week or two as a buy-low, consider it.     

3. This Week's Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.   

 

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up: 

Oakland CB Sean Smith: He simply gave Julio Jones the inside on several routes in this game and two of those plays resulted in 65 yards and a touchdown.

 

If not for Reggie Nelson noting Smith's breakdown on deep cross in the fourth quarter, Jones might have scored rather than caught contested 44-yard target. The Saints also lit up Smith in Week 1. 

The right side of Oakland's defensive line: The Falcons lined opened fissures in the Raiders' unit that led to consistent gains of at least five yards. and Atlanta couldn't do anything up the middle against Tampa Bay the week before. 

Atlanta's linebackers: Oakland moved the ball at will when it worked the middle of the field. Late in the game, Oakland cut the lead to seven points in about two minutes and did it before the two-minute warning without using a time out.

Detroit's linebackers and safeties: The Lions only had three healthy linebackers heading into Week 2 and then strong side starter Kyle Van Noy got hurt. Considering that Van Noy and middle linebacker Tahir Whitehead are former college defensive ends who are much better rushing the passer and playing the run than covering receivers, this unit is particularly vulnerable to tight ends and backs. DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker were effective through the air last weekend and look for that trend to continue for Detroit's opponents. 

4. Don't Fear the REaper

Injury management is a fact of fantasy football. I lost Keenan Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, and Ben Watson by the end of Week 1. I was relying on them for significant minutes in lineups. 

In one league with all three on my rosters, I'm 2-0 and leading the league in points. I share this because I draft with the expectation that I'll lose at least 3-5 players on a 20-team roster to injury. Week 2 of the NFL season made up for our lack of preseason injuries with a vengeance. Here's my run-down of the snake-bit and either who you should consider or how the injury impacts other players of note. 

Brandon Marshall (MCL)...Consider Quincy Enunwa: The third-year receiver from Nebraska was good enough in Week 1 that savvy fantasy owners took him in last week's waiver haul. But if you're in a larger league and Enunwa is still around, he's worth grabbing even if Marshall's injury doesn't sideline him. 

When I studied Enunwa's college tape, I saw a player with Terrell Owens' physical upside but even worse issues with his hands than the beginning of Owens' career. Fortunately, Enunwa's problems were related to poor technique and not hand-eye coordination limitations. He simply didn't place his hands in the correct position based on the location of the target and he made his job more difficult. 

Watch Enunwa's work against the Bills Thursday night, and you'll see a confident receiver making plays with his hands on throws away from his body, and using his Owens-like athletic ability to get yards after the catch. 

 

 

 

 

Even if Marshall returns this weekend, Ryan Fitzgerald was talking up Enunwa this summer as a contributor to the offense this season. The Jets lack an established tight end as a receiving option and Marshall even referred to Enunwa as a tight end-receiver hybrid for this offense during the post-game interview with the NFL Network crew. Act now.

Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder)/Jacoby Brissett: I don't recommend Brissett for your fantasy teams unless you have no other choice. He's a big quarterback with a good arm. He's also a rookie the Pats never wanted to rely on this year.

When he has the system down, he maneuvers the pocket and manages chaos with creativity, athletic ability, and intelligence. I doubt he's comfortable enough with the Pats' system that you're going to see enough of those positive flashes in uncomfortable situations to help your fantasy team. The Patriots realize this is a manageable situation and if the team is 2-2 for Brady's return, it's still a great situation for the team.  

With the ground game working, and Brissett's functional mobility, expect LeGarrette Blount and Martellus Bennett to pick up where they left off against the Dolphins. 

  

The receivers will be less predictable. 

Ameer Abdullah (Foot)/Dwayne Washington/Zach Zenner: Jene Bramel is telling us to prepare for a multi-week absence. Theo Riddick may appear to be more productive player anyhow but it's a conclusion missing the fact that Riddick is not nearly as good as Abdullah between the tackles when the play isn't a draw. Riddick will likely earn the start and deliver as a low-end RB2 in fantasy leagues, keep an eye on Dwayne Washington and Zach Zenner.  

Washington is the best raw talent at the running back position in this rookie class. I didn't expect him to make a team right away because he had difficulties taking exchanges from his quarterback, maintaining ball security, and reading basic blocking schemes. It cost him the starting job at the University of Washington despite flashes of great balance, power, and speed. If Washington can show reliability as a blocker on passing downs, he could supplant Riddick but we haven't seen any opportunities for Washington to prove that he has these skills.

The key to Washington's fantasy value will be Zenner. Although not the caliber of athlete or intuitive of a runner as Washington, Zenner is a solid, all-around back with better athletic ability than the "fullback tweener" label that some in the media have give him.

If Zenner sees the field on passing downs, it's a strong sign that the team lacks confidence in Washington's pass protection. If that's the case, Washington remains little more than a two-down and/or red zone specialist with boom-bust fantasy production and likely overpriced. 

Doug Martin (hamstring)/Charles Sims/Peyton Barber: We know Charles Sims has receiving skills. Despite the fact that there are some bullish on Sims' as an all-around talent, I'm lukewarm and the biggest reasons are the immediate situation of the Buccaneers' offensive line that is not performing well. Sims is more reliant on the offensive line than Martin because he's not as agile, creative, or as strong as the veteran. I have always seen Sims as a blend of a less talented DeMarco Murray and more conceptually sound Darren McFadden. It means he's likely a low-end RB2 until this line figures things out. Keep an eye on Peyton Barber, a Spencer Ware-like rookie who does more with less than Sims. 

Arian Foster (groin)/Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake: We knew it was a matter of time before the baling wire would come undone for Foster. Ajayi has all the physical tools—and enough running back savvy—to deliver productive RB2 stats to fantasy owners. The issue is the Dolphins' offensive line. You'll probably have to pay RB2 value to land Ajayi when his realistic output appears more RB3/RB4-ish.  

Drake is a big-play athlete who runs out of control and doesn't understand the ins and outs of blocking schemes as he should. He was used as a space player at Alabama and consistently got hurt during his career. I believe much of this had to do him playing out of control and not understanding the nuances of the position. When players lean too hard on athletic ability without knowledge of what's unfolding in front of them, they make erratic choices that can lead to injury. 

Jonathan Stewart (hamstring): Fozzy Whittaker has played well but we know Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton will likely earn the red zone love. Whittaker has flex upside. 

Adrian Peterson and Danny Woodhead:  See below. 

5.  Jesse James is a quiet killer

There's a lot of talk about Eli Rodgers and occasional fireworks with Sammie Coates Jr but the real fantasy assassin is tight end Jesse James. He's not fast, but he's tall, fluid, and sure-handed. 

Kind of like his mentor Heath Miller...

I I comped him closer to Brent Celek because I think Miller was a better athlete. Although Ladarius Green thinks he'll be ready Week 7, the way James is blocking at the line of scrimmage and making plays in traffic (above) and fade routes, I'm not sure there's anyone really waiting on Green. 

6. Tyler Lockett is a patience play, but he'll be fine

Truth: The Seatte Seahawks offensive line is bad. False: Tyler Lockett will be a fantasy bust this year. That's the way I see it. Here's why...

When Russell Wilson is healthy—and his performance against the Rams showed me that he's a lot closer than in initially appeared this time last week—he doesn't need the same caliber offensive line as other quarterbacks. It's an unfortunate truth that as a Seahawks fan I hate because I'd prefer them to not lean so hard on Wilson's greatness as a creator under pressure. 

Still, Wilson can create big-play opportunities with his ability to buy an extra 1-3 seconds on any given pass play.  It doesn't sound like a lot of time but he's effectively increasing his chances to find an open man anywhere from 30% to 107% the average time that a quarterback has to throw the ball in the NFL.

Lockett saw a solid share of targets against the Rams. He drew a defensive pass interference call on a pass that Wilson normally wouldn't have underthrown, and despite banging his knee late in the half, he returned to the game and caught a beautiful throw for 53 yards late in the game.   

Just as you could see Wilson and Lockett gelling, the same was happening with third-year speedster Paul Richardson Jr. These may alarm some fantasy owners who worry about "too many mouths to feed" but when receivers don't earn enough targets it's usually because they aren't good enough to do more one 1-2 things well. Lockett and Baldwin don't have that problem and I believe Richardson will develop into that kind of player. 

As long as Wilson's injury heels fast enough that he's fully "himself" within the net 2-3 weeks, I anticipate that Seattle can do enough with this offensive line to make this passing game dangerous and consistently productive. Hold tight. 

7. Melvin Gordon has improved, but Philip Rivers is the key to consistent productivity

One of the most enjoyable games I watched this weekend when it came to schematic creativity was the Chargers-Jaguars blowout. The lede for Gordon's improvement is his work with Adrian Peterson and the addition of his college fullback Derek Watt. 

 

These are factors. But one that's most compelling is the way that Rivers and the offensive staff manipulates defenses with inventive pre-snap alignments that force the opponent to play the pass and the Chargers counter with a run.   

The Chargers earned five yards on a 3rd and 2 with 13:53 in the first quarter because of this strategy. The offense began the play in a four-receiver, one-tight end alignment. Gordon was split wide of a trips set tight to the right side of the offensive line. Rivers motioned Gordon to the backfield and when the cornerback originally over the runner didn't go with the runner and the corner over the Antonio Gates dropped deeper, the Chargers ran the ball behind Gates and the left tackle-left guard double team for the easy first down. 

On a 2nd and 8 run from a trips left-single right alignment with tight end Hunter Henry as one of the trips receivers. Rivers read the Jaguars defense, changed the play to a run, and Henry worked as the lead blocker across the formation inside the right tackle. With the defensive front in the middle of a stunt before it realized this as a run, the right side of the line opened a huge hole for Gordon to gain 21 yards.

Despite losing Danny Woodhead for the season to an ACL injury, Rivers has the skills and the offensive flexibility to serve up big-play opportunities for Gordon on a consistent basis.

8. Sam Bradford-Stefon Diggs could be a Real thing 

Cris Collinsworth isn't crazy. What Sam Bradford on short notice against the Packers was impressive. He should have been far less accurate, erratic in the pocket, and "just missing" some of those looping throws he put over defenders in traffic. That's usually what happens to veteran quarterbacks transitioned at light speed to a new offense and unfamiliar system.

Luck played a factor in what Bradford did but not nearly as much as some may wish to believe. When you think about his career, Bradford never had a receiver the caliber of Stefon Diggs, a tight end the caliber of Kyle Rudolph, or an offensive mind as consistent as Norv Turner.  

 

What Bradford always had was a great deep ball and intermediate accuracy and the Vikings have enough talent to make Bradford a viable fantasy option—even without Adrian Peterson. In fact, the Vikings will be more comfortable using the shotgun without Peterson and it will help the offensive line protect Bradford. 

What makes the Diggs-Bradford combo important is that Bradford hasn't had a true route runner with do-everything capability since he was at Oklahoma. When a passer with Bradford's style has a receiver with Diggs' skills, you're looking at a combo that can use timing to defeat top corners, heavy blitzes, and even double coverage. Peyton Manning-Marvin Harrison, Eli Manning-Odell Beckham, Ben Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown, and Matt Ryan-Roddy White are all examples of duos who could do these things. 

At worst, Bradford's upside is that of a more accurate, post-rehab Kerry Collins. I'll take my chances. 

9. Minnesota's defense is quite a story

The Titans aren't an impressive offense and at least for now, the Packers' unit seems less impressive than the individuals comprising it. It doesn't matter, I like what I see from the Vikings defense. 

For me, it begins with Eric Kendricks. He's one of the most instinctive young linebackers I have seen in a while. 

 

Kendricks forced a fumble and had a near-interception on the Packers' first drive. If you play in IDP leagues, this is a guy you want to own long-term. Despite losing its top cornerback Xavier Rhodes this summer, the pass defense is hanging in there and I think it's only about to get better. 

Top prospect Trae Waynes looked great during the the first half of this game and then the bottom fell out. He tried getting too physical when he already had optimal position. By the fourth quarter, Waynes committed three defensive pass interference penalties and gave up a huge play to Jordy Nelson early in the final frame.

Waynes went from looking like a future Pro Bowler to a "Fresh Fish" candidate. The Vikings staff saw enough and changed its coverage to zone. But it was actually Waynes who sealed this game with an interception against Davante Adams. 

Waynes may have more up-and-down outings but this was one of those tests that he had to encounter at some point and I think he passed. When Xavier Rhodes returns, this unit will be much stronger for the experience Waynes and rookie MacKensie Alexander earned last night. 

The focus for the Vikings this offseason has been to force more fumbles and the team forced three in the first half of this game alone. It scored two touchdowns last week on turnovers against Tennessee. 

Minnesota may still turn into a fantasy disaster but even with the injuries to Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater, I'm far more optimistic than I expected. One of the reasons is this defense. 

10. Week 1 Followups 

Did you see what I mean about Dak Prescott? Once again, he delivered a turnover-free performance. His "explosive plays" were runs after the catch by Jason Witten for 29 yards and Cole Beasley for 28 yards, but for the most part he was jabbing and keeping the fight close. 

This week, the opponent made enough mistakes for the Cowboys to win a close victory. It's good football. It's not great fantasy production for a young quarterback, but the Cowboys even incorporated Bryant into the slant game earlier than I expected. 

When I wrote that Larry Fitzgerald gets easy plays as a slot receiver, this wasn't what I meant: 

 

 A better example was 2nd and 10 with 2:33 in the first quarter from a 1x2 receiver personnel set. Fitzgerald was the outside twin man when the Cardinals came to the line. The team shifted Fitzgerald inside and at the snap the receiver released from the line between the right tackle and tight end, just outside of a blitzing safety. 

The result? Fitzgerald was wide open on a sail route for a gain of 26 yards. Designing plays where Fitzgerald gets easy releases into wide open zones is exactly what I was referring to. 

Although, we'll keep taking those one-on-ones in the red zone where he makes catches like the one above. 

 

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Mackensie Alexander Keenan Allen Cole Beasley Teddy Bridgewater Jacoby Brissett Antonio Brown Stefon Diggs Kenyan Drake Eric Ebron Joe Flacco Jimmy Garoppolo Melvin Gordon III Joe Haden Hunter Henry Jesse James Julio Jones Eric Kendricks Tyler Lockett Cam Newton Josh Norman Adrian Peterson Dak Prescott Jalen Ramsey Xavier Rhodes Ben Roethlisberger Kyle Rudolph Matt Ryan Justin Tucker Kyle Van Noy Dwayne Washington Derek Watt Trae Waynes Tahir Whitehead Russell Wilson

Footballguys Home Leagues

More by Matt Waldman

Roundtable: Running Back Rank'em

Matt Waldman, Oct 3, 2024

Roundtable: Dynasty Values of Great But Aging Players

Matt Waldman, Oct 3, 2024

Roundtable: What to Do with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle?

Matt Waldman, Oct 3, 2024

Roundtable: Waiver-Wire Strategy

Matt Waldman, Oct 3, 2024

The Gut Check No. 632: The Consequences of Mobile QBs

Matt Waldman, Oct 2, 2024

The Top 10: Week 5

Matt Waldman, Oct 1, 2024

Most Recent

Underdog Pick Em: Week 5 IDP Matchups and Stat Trends: Week 5 Polarizing Fantasy Players: Week 5 Close Calls: Week 5's Toughest Lineup Decisions IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 5 Reading the Defense: Week 5 Beat the Waiver Wire: Week 5 10 historias a seguir en Semana 5 Matchup Previews, Injuries, and News: Week 5