Before we go forward, it’s time to look back and ask the question, “What exactly did we learn playing fantasy football in 2022?”. Then we should ask, "How can we use this hard-earned knowledge to be better in 2023 drafts?"
Note: All ADP data is courtesy of Underdog (Sign up with the code “Footballguys")
Changing teams doesn’t hurt a stud #1 receiver
Used to be that changing teams in the offseason was a death knell for a receiver’s redraft value, and 2022 gave us a lot of good test cases. Going from Patrick Mahomes II and Aaron Rodgers to any other quarterback had to be a bad thing for Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, right? Going from a run-heavy offense in Tennessee to a run-heavy offense in Philadelphia, but with an inexperienced quarterback, that couldn’t be a good thing for A.J. Brown, right? Going from Dak Prescott to Jacoby Brissett, well, that’s obviously going to hurt Amari Cooper’s value.
Fantasy drafters certainly thought so, with Adams, Cooper, Brown, and Hill coming at a discount from what their previous production would dictate. All outperformed expectations and delivered excess value on investment, and Hill actually set new career highs in catches and receiving yards. Even Marquise Brown looked like he was going to set new career highs before getting hurt and giving way to DeAndre Hopkins as the #1 receiver in a crumbling offense.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Remember all of these players changing teams via trade, some during the draft, so we’ll be patient and wait to see if any big names are moved with an otherwise underwhelming free agent class.
Don’t assume there will be a primary winner when a #1 receiver leaves
There was a lot of aspirational fantasy capital spent on the players who were supposed to fill the voids left by Adams, Brown, and Hill. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Allen Lazard, Robert Woods, and Treylon Burks disappointed. Romeo Doubs, Mecole Hardman, and Christian Watson especially had some short runs of solid production, but chasing these situations mostly did not work out for fantasy teams.
What We’ll Do in 2023: If any big names change teams, we won’t obsess too much about figuring out who the winner will be; there might not even be one. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes II basically told us as much last year before the season.
Russell Wilson was the problem in the Seattle passing game
That might be an oversimplification, but the fantasy outcomes back it up. While everyone was taking a stance over which of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy would benefit more from Wilson’s arrival in Denver, the fantasy community baked in a big Geno Smith discount to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett’s value, which was a big mistake. Lockett and Metcalf finished as solid WR2 options, while Jeudy and Sutton were inconsistent WR3/Flex options.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Sutton is the cheapest of the group this year if we are betting on a Sean Payton-fueled bounceback for the Denver offense. Jeudy is only going a round later than 2022 after a strong finish to the season. Metcalf’s discount window is officially closed, but Lockett is still modestly priced as a sixth-round pick in early Underdog drafts, probably because he’s turning 31 during the season.
Spending your first-round pick on a wide receiver was a good idea
Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp (before his injury), Ja’Marr Chase (before and after his injury, Stefon Diggs, and Adams were all good first-round picks. Reaching for CeeDee Lamb in the first worked out, too, and might have been a big hit if Dak Prescott hadn’t gotten hurt to open the season. The only true landmine in the first round was a running back (Jonathan Taylor), and the back end of the first round running back group (Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Najee Harris) weren’t wins at ADP.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Probably take a wide receiver in the first. Eight of the first 12 picks in early Underdog drafts are wide receivers, so have clarity on whether you think Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, or Travis Kelce are worth taking over a wideout. It will be one of the most important decisions of your draft.
Late season hype giveth, and it taketh away
Gabel Davis came on in the second half of 2021 and earned a larger role, culminating in a record-setting game the last time we saw him and a clear runway to a dedicated starter role opening in the offseason. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the best thing about a bare cupboard, but improving offense late in 2021. Both were the subject of vigorous offseason debate and available at a discount from what their late-season upward-pointing arrows suggested.
St. Brown didn’t drop off one bit from his scalding late 2021 pace and set a record for the most games with eight catches and a touchdown. Davis was inconsistent and frustrating.
What We’ll Do in 2023: There’s not really anyone who captured our imagination late in the 2022 campaign, but the lesson here is the same as always: looking for overarching rules and patterns won’t always guide us in the right direction. We should always look at players on a case-by-case basis. No, you’re not wasting your time reading the article, and I’m not wasting my time writing it, are we?
A change of offensive coordinators can be very good for the passing game but doesn’t always deliver results in year one
If you were on Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk, or Zay Jones, optimism about the offensive changes in their offensive schemes and staff was probably a big part of the reason why. Even some of our best waiver wire hits came courtesy of a revived Giants passing game. On the other hand, the Vikings, Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, and Bears offenses also had change in the offseason that could have been seen as positive, but led us to some of the biggest busts - Hunter Renfrow and Darnell Mooney - in addition to the disappointing Broncos receivers.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Hitting on a player like Waddle or St. Brown can make up for multiple bust picks, so we should still be inclined to act where we feel optimism. Renfrow and Mooney could be great post-hype sleepers if they are healthy entering camp. Baltimore, Carolina, New England, Washington, and the Chargers could get bumps from new, and hopefully improved, schemes and offensive coordinators installed this offseason. Monitor news about these offenses to find out who might benefit the most of the new looks.
Rookie wide receivers were, again, generally a good investment
The ramp-up time for rookie wideouts to become productive pros is becoming non-existent in a lot of cases. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were hits at ADP, and Drake London wasn’t a bust. Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, George Pickens, and Romeo Doubs had some decent stretches to pay off on a minimal investment. Even Alec Pierce, Rashid Shaheed, and Wan’Dale Robinson had flashes of fantasy relevance. Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore were wastes of a pick, but they were the exception, not the rule.
What We’ll Do in 2023: There’s another strong rookie group coming that should land at least 4-5 wide receivers in the first round. We’ll continue to be open to taking chances on them in drafts and on the waiver wire once they get opportunity.
Michael Thomas is broken, Julio Jones is held together by duct tape, and Allen Robinson is declining like a running back
The best wide receivers used to age like fine wine, but more and more once-elite pass-catchers are dropping off a cliff physically once they start to slip. Michael Thomas looked and produced like his old self for two weeks but didn’t play again after Week 4. Julio Jones was maintained as if he could break down at any time if he was overworked. Allen Robinson didn’t fare much better in Los Angeles than in his miserable last year in Chicago.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, and Mike Evans are the best candidates to be the career arc downslope busts this year, but early Underdog drafters have already pushed them into the 50-75 range, so the discount is probably worth a look since they don’t have nearly the shade of red flags that Thomas, Jones, and Robinson displayed in 2021.
Poor quarterback play leads to wire receiver underperformance in almost every case
D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, Diontae Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool failed to live up to expectations because of predictably bad quarterback play and overall offensive ineptitude. Drake London was a successful rookie in NFL terms, but there was much more meat on the bone for fantasy if he had better quarterback play.
On the other hand, we faded DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett because we projected Geno Smith as a big downgrade, and we were so wrong.
What We’ll Do in 2023: We have to wait for the draft and free agency, but some teams will end up starting a retread bridge or playing an overwhelmed rookie. The Titans, Raiders, Giants, Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Saints, and Commanders top the list of teams we watch and be ready to be skeptical of pending their moves (or lack of moves at quarterback.
The waiver wire gave us some moderate hits, but they ran hot and cold
No waiver wire pickup made our season at wide receiver like Jerick McKinnon did at running back. The closest candidate was Christian Watson, who was WR3 from Week 10 to Week 13. Zay Jones and Jakobi Meyers were the closest things there was to a consistent WR3 from the wire. Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Rondale Moore, Mack Hollins, Donovan Peoples-Jones, K.J. Osborn, D.J. Chark, and the Giants trio of Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Richie James all had some sustained windows of production. Still, the waiver wire only gave us lineup band-aids instead of actually redeeming our draft mistakes.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Taking a first-round wide receiver helps. We’ll probably plan on using half of our first 6-8 picks on wide receivers and not rely too much on the late-round picks and waiver-wire wonders at the position.
We should stop trying to make Kadarius Toney happen
Toney was a complete bust as a Giant, and he was going around the same time as receivers like DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, and Brandon Aiyuk, so it wasn’t at a trivial opportunity cost to fantasy teams. Then, he got traded to the Chiefs, and lots of waiver wire bucks were spent for, well, nothing really. Yes, he did score in the Super Bowl.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Toney’s early Underdog ADP is only slightly over a round lower than his 2022 ADP. No thanks.
Jalen Hurts can support two strong fantasy wide receiver options
A.J. Brown wasn’t the only Eagles receiver severely underdrafted. DeVonta Smith had his share of WR1 weeks and is already going in the early third round in 2023 Underdog drafts. If you were optimistic about Hurts and the Eagles, that covered up a lot of warts in the rest of your drafts.
What We’ll Do in 2023: The Chargers are the best candidate to produce two top-15 wide receiver options despite having none drafted in the top 10 at the position, thanks to improvement in the pass offense (Hello, Kellen Moore!). In fact, they have no receivers going in the top 20 at the position in early drafts.
Lamar Jackson can’t support any strong fantasy wide receiver options
…Or can he? Rashod Bateman was doing okay before he got hurt and then the passing game collapsed. Then again, the amount of talent plus experience was the smallest in the league, and the now-deposed Greg Roman didn’t help. Will Jackson end up on a new team? Will he stay in Baltimore with a revitalized pass offense under Todd Monken? The next chapter in the Jackson saga is one of the top stories of the offseason.
What We’ll Do in 2023: Rashod Bateman is going two to three rounds after his 2022 fifth-round ADP, but D.J. Moore and Garrett Wilson have little to no speculative upside bump based on the chances Jackson ends up as their quarterback. The Raiders and Commanders can’t be counted out, either. Someone is going to get a Lamar Jackson bump when this gets settled. Stay tuned.