The Archetype of a Top-12 QB

Photo: USA Today Sports

Last week, I dove into the archetype of a top-12 running back, highlighting the thresholds met over the previous three seasons and forecasting players to emerge as top-12 options. This week, I'm looking at quarterbacks.

While the running back position has slightly varied as football evolves, the quarterback position has enormously shifted. The game's evolution is leading to more creativity from the quarterback position, and the archetype of a top-12 quarterback has deviated immensely in the last decade-and-a-half. In 2022, ten of the top-12 quarterbacks eclipsed 60 rush attempts. In 2008, two top-12 quarterbacks met that mark. In 2022, the average top-12 quarterback rushed for 4.67 touchdowns. In 2008, no top-12 quarterback rushed for five touchdowns. The position is rapidly changing, and targeting archetypical players is a safer way to approach roster construction.

The Sample

The most considerable shift in quarterback usage occurred within the last five years, but this study takes three separate three-year spans to compare and contrast: 2008-2010, 2013-2015, and 2020-2022. This study also used r-squared values (values that indicate the correlation between two metrics) to determine the metrics that most impacted fantasy points per game over the three separate three-year spans. To be considered, quarterbacks must have played a minimum of five games.

The Limitations

One of the measured demographics of top-12 quarterbacks is the relative athletic score (RAS). Relative athletic score is a metric that takes a player's NFL Scouting Combine measurables and condenses them into a singular number. While many quarterbacks qualify for this metric, some quarterbacks in the study only participated in some NFL Combine testing. Some didn't participate at all. The relative athletic score averages only account for players with an official score.

The Archetype

The quarterback position has changed drastically over the last 15 years. Top-12 quarterbacks from 2008-2010 averaged just 17.6 fantasy points per game and had an archetype like this:

Average Demographics

• Draft Capital refers to the round the player was selected in his NFL Draft.
• College AY/A refers to the adjusted passing yards per attempt metric from Sports-Reference College Football.
• College RuYds refers to the total rushing yards in a player's best college season.
• RAS refers to relative athletic score, a metric that takes a player's NFL Scouting Combine measurables and condenses them into a singular number.

Average Statistics

From 2013-2015, the average top-12 quarterback looked like this:

Average Demographics

Average Statistics

Over the last three seasons, top-12 quarterbacks averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game, and this is the archetype:

Average Demographics

Average Statistics

Main Takeaways

• With the incorporation of quarterback rushing, the average passing yards threshold decreased from 3970 from 2013-2015 to 3960 from 2020-2022, despite the average completion percentage increasing by 2%.
• Average rush attempts more than doubled from 2008-2010 to 2020-2022.
• Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins were the only two quarterbacks in 2022 to finish in the Top 12 in fantasy points per game (min. five games) while rushing fewer than 60 times.
• In 2020, nine of the top-12 quarterbacks eclipsed 3960 passing yards. By 2022, just six quarterbacks met that mark.
• Ten of the top-12 quarterbacks in 2022 had fewer than 6.4 years of experience, the average from 2020-2022, indicating that fantasy success is arriving more quickly.
• On average, the top-12 quarterbacks from 2020-2022 scored 34.1 total touchdowns. Four quarterbacks (Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow) met that mark in 2022.

Based on this information, the prototypical top-12 quarterback attempts over 520 passes, completing 66.6% for 3960 yards and 30 touchdowns. He also adds 74.8 rush attempts for 394 yards and four touchdowns.

The 2022 Top 12 QBs

The top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2022 looked like this:

Jalen Hurts Demographics and Statistics

Patrick Mahomes II Demographics and Statistics

Josh Allen Demographics and Statistics

Joe Burrow Demographics and Statistics

Justin Fields Demographics and Statistics

Lamar Jackson Demographics and Statistics

Geno Smith Demographics and Statistics

Daniel Jones Demographics and Statistics

Trevor Lawrence Demographics and Statistics

Kyler Murray Demographics and Statistics

Tua Tagovailoa Demographics and Statistics

Kirk Cousins Demographics and Statistics

The Potential Risers

This study utilized r-squared values to determine which metrics among top-12 quarterbacks most impacted fantasy points per game. From 2008-2010, the three most correlative metrics were:

• Rushing touchdowns
• Yards per attempt
• Rushing yards

From 2013-2015, the three most correlative metrics were:

• Passing touchdowns
• Passing yards
• Rushing touchdowns

From 2020-2022, the three most correlative metrics were:

• Relative athletic score
• Rushing touchdowns
• Yards per attempt

We can use this data to identify quarterbacks who finished outside the top-12 that have the potential to rise.

Justin Herbert, LA Chargers

All of the quarterbacks in this group meet the relative athletic score threshold, and Justin Herbert's lack of rushing production makes him a tough sell to emerge as a top-12 option in points per game. Still, Herbert averaged four touchdowns on the ground and 7.4 yards per attempt through his first two seasons. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore consistently schemed Dak Prescott into the top 12 (Prescott was the No. 1 fantasy points per game QB in 2020). Herbert's talent indicates he has a high fantasy ceiling, and 2022 should look like an outlier when the 2023 season concludes.

Dak Prescott, Dallas

Prescott averaged 7.72 yards per attempt through his first six seasons and 4.17 rushing touchdowns. In 2022, he scored one touchdown on the ground and averaged 7.26 yards per attempt. Still, he ran the ball 45 times, and after changing offensive coordinators and reshaping the offense, returning to the top 12 in fantasy points per game is a good bet.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

Likely the most surprising entry, Pickett ran the ball 55 times in just 13 games in 2022 and boasted an elite RAS before the 2022 NFL Draft. He also contributed three touchdowns via the ground game. While fantasy managers should rightfully question his passing efficiency, Pickett is an excellent bet to get value from his rushing work.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland

Watson's 36 rush attempts in six games eclipse the per-game average of the top-12 quarterback archetype (4.92). He struggled with his passing efficiency, but the arrival of Elijah Moore should help improve that. Watson averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and 4.25 rushing touchdowns per game through his first four seasons. Returning to his previous form would all but guarantee top-12 status.

Russell Wilson, Denver

Russell Wilson's 55 rush attempts and three touchdowns indicated he hasn't yet fallen off, and his yards per attempt were just 0.3 away from meeting the threshold of a top-12 quarterback. Wilson's lack of touchdown production limited his ceiling, but the bones are there for a return to great fantasy performances. Sean Payton's arrival should help, and Wilson's track record makes him a safe bet to return to the top 12.

Rookies with a Head Start

Just one quarterback projected to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft qualified for a relative athletic score during the pre-draft process: Anthony Richardson. He also eclipsed the average college rushing yards threshold in the 2022 season. Hendon Hooker met both the College AY/A and college rushing yards thresholds. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud eclipsed the College AY/A threshold in multiple seasons, though neither ran the ball significantly. Will Levis didn't meet either of the thresholds.

The Dynasty Implications

While it was once safest to select quarterbacks with elite throwing ability, athletic rushing quarterbacks are taking over the quarterback position. Players in the mold of Peyton Manning face an uphill battle to become a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Players in the mold of Michael Vick have built-in floors simply due to their rushing upside and ability to affect the game on the ground. NFL offenses are finally welcoming the designed quarterback runs that have dominated the high school and college levels for the last two decades. Players also see earlier opportunities. Strategically, drafting a "risky" athlete with passing-game flaws early in their career and rostering them when those opportunities are virtually guaranteed is a viable option.

The best athletes play quarterback when they're growing up. Gone are the days of transitioning them out of that position once they reach college, resulting in more fantasy points at the NFL level and a different way of drafting the position in dynasty leagues.

Thank you for reading! Please follow and ask any questions @CWilliamsNFL on Twitter. You can also find my articles here.