Sunday Showdown Week 12

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Baltimore Ravens are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Broncos as 3-point favorites with a 48-point total. As with every Chargers slate, the first decision is whether to pair Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert or play Austin Ekeler. This slate is a bit different because Ekeler is the cheapest of the bunch by about $1,000. That makes building lineups around the Ravens much easier, as Ekeler can account for much of the Chargers' offensive production on his own. Even as a 3-point underdog, Los Angeles will be the more popular team because of their plethora of under-priced targets. They won't get spit out as often in any optimizer, but Baltimore stacks are the easiest way to get contrarian, and they make more sense.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Mark Andrews - Ankle - Out
Jalen Guyton - Groin - Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

• Lamar Jackson
• Keenan Allen
• Austin Ekeler
• Zay Flowers
• Gus Edwards

RAVENS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Jackson enters Week 12 as the odds-on favorite for MVP. He will be without his top target Mark Andrews for a significant duration. Fortunately, Isaiah Likely has proven to be a capable target in the past. Jackson deserves to be the most expensive player on the slate, as he is projected five points more than the next highest projection. He has been more productive through the air than he will ever get credit for, thus making Raven's passing game stacks the easiest way to leverage the field any time Baltimore is playing.

RUNNING BACK

Gus Edwards $8,600 - Captain or Flex

Between Jackson, Edwards, and Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens have an extremely well-rounded backfield. This doesn't bode well for Edwards' workload, but he's still been productive. He has scored at least in each of the last five games, totaling nine over the duration. He's also consistently earning at least double-digit opportunities, even in games where he is game-scripted out. He won't stand out in the projection systems, but he's one of the safest bets for a score in the league right now.

Keaton Mitchell $6,800 - Flex

Mitchell's snap share has increased every week he's been active. Last week, he earned 9 opportunities. While he didn't produce his signature long touchdown, he was still productive with his opportunity. DraftKings is ruining the party, as they've already priced him up before the inevitable 50% snap share and 10 touches. He's more of a tournament play at this price.

RECEIVER

Zay Flowers $8,000 - Captain or Flex

Flowers and Andrews made up a fantastic one-two punch. With Andrews out, Flowers' 24% target share is expected to grow. While Isaiah Likely was priced up due to Andrews' injury, Flowers' price remained the same. He was already a fair play at cost; now he's an excellent value.

Odell Beckham Jr $6,200 - Flex

Beckham was injured in last week's game but looks to be good to go for this game. He had his best performance of the year in Week 12, totaling 116 yards on 4 catches. The two weeks prior, he caught a touchdown. He's finally hitting his stride, but his snap share still reflects limitations. Beckham has been more productive, but his opportunity will be similar to Bateman's, except he's $2,200 more expensive.

Isaiah Likely $5,200 - Flex

Losing Andrews is terrible for any offense, but the Ravens are fortunate to have one of the league's best backup receiving tight end to step into his role. Last season, one would be hard-pressed to notice which games Andrews was out, as Likely filled in so well. In Week 17, he was targeted 13 times, resulting in 8 receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown. He's a fringe Captain option, especially in large-field tournaments.

Rashod Bateman $4,000 - Flex

Bateman has been underwhelming most of the season, but he's still earning the second more snaps at wide receiver with over 70%. With Beckham banged up this week, Bateman could be in line for a few more targets.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Nelson Agholor $2,200 - Flex

Agholor's salary has gotten a bit rich, but Beckham's injury gives him a slight boost toward staying relevant. He has been targeted at least once in every game since Week 2. Last week, he turned his one target into a 37-yard touchdown.

CHARGERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert $11,000 - Flex

Herbert misses Captain consideration simply due to the build required to get him there. All of his receivers outside of Keenan Allen are underpriced, which naturally slots Herbert into the Captain spot for most projection systems. It's important to remember that there is a reason his receivers are so cheap. Since Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have been lost to injury, the team has struggled to replace even a fraction of their production. This has made Chargers stacks into a trap nearly every week thus far.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler $10,000 - Captain or Flex

Ekeler earned just 13 opportunities last week, which resulted in his price decrease this week. He still managed 70 total yards in what is undoubtedly his floor. He can be expected to see over 20 touches and is immune to game-script as he can be the leading receiver or rusher on any given week.

RECEIVER

Keenan Allen $11,200 - Captain or Flex

The Chargers' inability to replace any production at receiver has left Allen to shoulder the load. His 32% target share is one of the highest in the league. Over the last two weeks, he's managed 30 targets, resulting in 21 receptions for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. He makes sense at Captain with Herbert in the flex in a 3-3 build.

Gerald Everett $4,800 - Flex

Everett has been inactive for two of the last four games. In his two starts, he earned just four targets, resulting in 18 total yards. He's also lost the majority snap-share as Donald Parham Jr and Stone Smartt have received increased workloads. He's too expensive, given the other options in this price range.

Quentin Johnston $3,000 - Flex

Johnston has been largely disappointing, given his first-round pedigree, but DraftKings has gone too far with this salary. He will play nearly 90% of the snaps and earn roughly 5 targets. He will be rostered heavily, but he's difficult to avoid at this price except to intentionally create leverage.

Donald Parham Jr $4,400 - Flex

Parham has created a timeshare amongst the tight ends, as he's produced well every time Everett has been sidelined. Last week, he was targeted 6 times, resulting in 4 catches for 57 yards. With Everett back, Parham is relegated to just large-field tournament consideration due to his touchdown upside.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Alex Erickson $400 - Flex

Erickson was activated for the first time last week, where he caught one pass for 12 yards. If Jalen Guyton misses this game, Erickson will be thrust into a full-time role. Even with Guyton out, Erickson makes sense as a tournament punt option, as he's been productive in the past.