Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted perennial DB1 Jordan Poyer with confidence last summer, only to be disappointed. He played deep too often to compile tackles. A year ago, Josey Jewell, Jordan Hicks, and Frankie Luvu were afterthoughts at best. Each finished among fantasy football's top 24 linebackers.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series interprets changes in rosters, player contracts, personnel groupings at organized team activities (OTAs), and insights new coordinators will offer into defensive philosophy. The goal is to read a new defense and anticipate fluctuations in IDP fantasy values.
Changing Schemes
Bloom also speaks of talent, situation, and opportunity as the three legs of a tripod that supports fantasy value. Defensive scheme changes can be so impactful to fantasy value that they constitute a fourth leg. Each season, a quarter to a third of the NFL's teams hire new defensive coordinators.
Reading the New Defense: Philadelphia Eagles addressed the impact of the change in nomenclature from "4-3" to "3-4." Some fantasy football leagues operate on sites that rely on team depth charts for position designations. Such leagues experience drastic shifts in player values based on team nomenclature while the duties of affected players change subtly, if at all. Footballguy Gary Davenport investigates position redesignation in his piece, The Effect of True Position on IDP.
This article is the seventh in a series examining the effects on defenders' fantasy values portended by new defensive schemes. Each piece further contemplates personnel moves and comments about them from the coaching staff and front office.
The first six are as follows:
Atlanta | Carolina | Cleveland | Miami | Minnesota | Philadelphia
Change Is Relative.
For the second time in franchise history, the Denver Broncos have hired a defensive coordinator whom they previously fired from the head coaching post. Vance Joseph led the Broncos in 2017 and 2018 after a single season coordinating the Dolphins' defense. He spent the last four seasons coordinating the Cardinals' defense.
National football media believe they have Vance Joseph pegged. They predict drastic changes for the Broncos' defense from 2022 to 2023. Even former Chicago defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano struggles to imagine how the Broncos' defenders will adjust to the Joseph defense he competed against in 2019 and 2020. Pagano then relays his experience incorporating concepts from his predecessor Vic Fangio into his own defense with the help of position coaches that stayed on.
Ejiro Evero, a former Fangio assistant whose defense was covered earlier in this series, runs a defense built on 3-4 architecture. So does Vance Joseph.
The Broncos blitzed 219 times in 2022, much more often than national football media seems to realize. The Cardinals blitzed 225 times under Vance Joseph. The Cardinals and Broncos ranked third and fourth in the NFL in number of blitzes last year.
As a former assistant to Vic Fangio, Evero is associated with complex zone coverages with two high safeties. Through Week 12 of 2022, the last time Pro Football Focus published such data, the Broncos played man coverage just 21.5 percent of the time, the 27th most frequently. Vance Joseph's Cardinals were playing man coverage 21.6 percent of the time, 25th in the league. The Broncos and Cardinals played Cover-3, a middle-of-the-field closed coverage with one high safety, and middle-of-the-field open coverages at very similar rates in 2022.
Big picture look at the NFL's Coverage Matrix
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) March 20, 2023
Each division is broken down#ArtofX x #NFL pic.twitter.com/wgA2c2YV7Y
The Broncos drafted three defenders last April: linebacker Drew Sanders at 67 and defensive backs Riley Moss and JL Skinner at 83 and 183, respectively. Sanders is a more athletic version of the linebackers already on the roster. Moss is a corner/safety tweener who profiles as a zone coverage specialist. Skinner is aspirationally a safety/linebacker hybrid in the mold of Isaiah Simmons, whom Vance Joseph developed in Arizona.
In free agency, the Broncos re-upped leading tackler linebacker Alex Singleton on a three-year deal and brought in defensive lineman Zach Allen. Joseph helped draft and develop Allen in Arizona. He's a one-for-one replacement for outgoing free agent Dre'Mont Jones. The two players had similar pass-rush win rates and double team rates as 3-4 defensive ends. Evero and Joseph each sought to isolate his top interior pass rusher against offensive linemen.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) for the 2022 NFL season.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 13, 2023
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/wXJS0c5CdV
The Broncos have brought back two of Evero's assistants, defensive line coach Marcus Dixon and defensive backs coach Christian Parker. Just as Chuck Pagano learned from former Fangio assistants, Joseph will learn from Evero's.
Vance Joseph has demonstrated adaptability to his personnel. His 2016 Dolphins featured Ndomakong Suh and Cameron Wake. They blitzed much less often than his recent vintage Cardinals. Joseph's 2023 Denver defense won't likely differ from the 2022 version as drastically as the talking heads presume.
#Broncos defensive play-caller: DC Vance Joseph pic.twitter.com/XLx5nMp5Bg
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) June 8, 2023
Defensive Fronts
Denver has league-average talent along its line that will feel like an embarrassment of riches to Vance Joseph after his experience in Arizona. He could easily outperform the Cardinals' 22.5-percent pressure rate ranked 12th in the league last year, as well as the Broncos' 18.5-percent pressure rate.
Broncos Interior Defenders
Zach Allen broke out midway through the 2021 season and proved his success was no fluke in 2022. He duplicated former Bronco Dre'Mont Jones's 47 combined tackles. Allen's 5.5 quarterback sacks were one short of the man he'll replace in 2023.
Edge Defenders
Randy Gregory and Frank Clark comprise the most enigmatic duo of starting edge rushers in the NFL for 2023. Gregory is ideally positioned to succeed as Joseph's starting weakside pass rusher. Markus Golden had a resurgent season in 2021, collecting 11.0 sacks the last time Joseph's defense was clicking.
Former off-ball linebacker Baron Browning, a project of the prior regime, showed upside after switching to a pass-rushing outside linebacker role in 2022. Unfortunately, he's recovering from off-season surgery and is at risk of missing the season opener.
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Building Out Coverages
Under Ejiro Evero, the Broncos both showed two high safeties and rotated out of that look at the highest rates in the league. They did so because the practice is demonstrably effective against play action. Vance Joseph's Cardinals showed two-high looks and rotated to one-high coverage rates above league averages as well.
Highest % of snaps where safeties rotate post-snap: Broncos, Rams, Bills
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) November 30, 2022
Lowest % of snaps where safeties rotate post-snap: Giants, Seahawks, Panthers pic.twitter.com/xXc2SXGDGi
Broncos Linebackers
Despite continuity in coverage types, all is not well for the fantasy values of starting linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton. In 2022, 25 NFL linebackers faced 60 or more targets in coverage. Jewell and Singleton played the fewest snaps among these 25. Singleton was targeted by opposing quarterbacks once in every ten snaps he played, by far the highest rate among these 25. Both players allowed a middling quarterback rating of 97.
Singleton also piled up numbers in run defense, making a solo tackle on almost 18 percent of his snaps in run defense, among the highest rates in the league. Jewell, meanwhile, was much closer to the league average as a run-stopper in 2022.
Joseph's linebackers have attracted targets from opposing quarterbacks at a league-average rate. The targets Jewell and Singleton face, as well as their tackle rates, are likely to regress to league averages.
If Vance Joseph implements a more aggressive approach to coverage as expected, defenders will be tasked with denying receivers the football. More aggressive coverage will encourage quarterbacks to push the football down the field rather than take what the defense gives them as often as they did versus Denver last year.
Film Room: Josey Jewell becoming a 'Fangio LB' in coverage for #Broncos https://t.co/yFc5Cwnujr pic.twitter.com/KyGZ2ntWR6
— Denver Broncos On SI.com (@BroncosOnScout) September 13, 2019
Safeties
Safety Budda Baker led all defenders with 104 solo tackles in 2019, Vance Joseph's first year in Arizona. Joseph has since adjusted his scheme to make his safeties more interchangeable, on-trend with the rest of the league. An effect of this change is that both starting Cardinals' safeties have compiled at least 98 tackles in each of the past two seasons.
Budda Baker rushed the passer about four times per game throughout Vance Joseph's tenure in Arizona, as often as any defensive back in the league. Ejiro Evero very rarely blitzed his safeties, so none of the Broncos' regular safeties has much of a track record as a pass rusher.
Justin Simmons emerged as a starting safety in Denver when Vance Joseph was the Broncos' head coach. Although Joe Woods coordinated the defense, Simmons's familiarity with Joseph could help him earn opportunities to play out of structure and attack opposing offenses. Simmons isn't giving anything away to inquisitive reporters.
A changing of the guard is expected at the other safety position. Kareem Jackson signed his third consecutive one-year deal to return to Denver, but the new coaches indicate that the 35-year-old will be on a "pitch count" this season. Caden Sterns will play ahead of Jackson, but the two could split duties such that neither plays full-time.
State of the @Broncos with @JamesPalmerTV
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) March 14, 2023
Two names you'll probably hear a lot next season:
âTim Patrick @Tpstreets
âCaden Sterns @CSterns_7 pic.twitter.com/7YkoTu912V
Cornerbacks
Patrick Surtain II has established himself as one of the NFL's best cornerbacks in two seasons. He was notably better as a rookie, operating in man coverage under Vic Fangio, than in Year 2, in Ejiro Evero's frequent zones.
Vance Joseph's experience with top cover corner Patrick Peterson will inform the Broncos' coverages in 2023. Joseph might have called Cover-3 in lieu of Cover-1 (man coverage) often because his Cardinals' cornerbacks were so weak last year.
The Broncos could show man coverage more in 2023 than in 2022 but only incrementally more. Their personnel decisions this spring indicate that the defense will not return to Cover-1 as often as Fangio's 2021 Broncos.
A more aggressive approach in Denver should mean more press-man, rather than off-man, coverage. Surtain has demonstrated ball skills that press-man coverage will highlight. He broke up 14 passes in 2021 but just 10 in 2022. This number should rebound in 2023.
Broncos 2023 Outlook
The last time Vance Joseph went to Denver, a strong defense regressed on his watch. Joseph will be under immense external scrutiny to prevent this from happening again.
Broncos' pass rushers only matter in deeper true-position IDP leagues. Zach Allen should reprise his role as a strong DT2 despite the change of scenery. Randy Gregory, while invisible in his first season in Denver, is a deep sleeper the second time around.
How many Pro Bowls will Zach Allen go to with the Broncos?
— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) July 12, 2023
pic.twitter.com/f0mHGxmPEN
Dynasty gamers and draftniks remain excited about Drew Sanders even after he slid to the third round of the 2023 NFL draft. With just one year of experience playing off the ball in college, he's almost certainly a year away from significant contributions to a pro defense.
Some observers wonder if Sanders could transition to outside linebacker like Baron Browning. Expecting a pass rusher who could not hold a job in the SEC to succeed in the NFL seems far-fetched.
In Vance Joseph's seven seasons as a defensive coordinator or head coach, only once has one of his linebackers eclipsed 118 combined tackles (Jordan Hicks, 150 tackles, 2019). Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton are 9th and 28th, respectively, among linebackers ranked for 2023 at FantasyPros.com.
Jewell's rank suggests he's a lock for 150 tackles. Average tackle rates for the zone coverages that both Joseph and Evero frequently called last year support such a projection. Evero's defense, with its prolific tackling linebackers, balanced the lower tackle efficiency of Joseph's linebackers in league-wide calculations. The increased aggression in coverage and, combined with attacking safeties, could again suppress tackle totals in a Joseph defense. The 2023 season will be an interesting study in drivers of tackling efficiency: scheme versus personnel.
Early drafters are more skeptical of Singleton, who will come off the field in dime sub-packages and, to the extent Joseph installs them, penny personnel, too. He finished 17th among linebackers in fantasy points by Footballguys.com scoring. He must sustain his ridiculous tackle efficiency to outperform his average draft position of 32nd in The IDP Show's best-ball drafts.
Vance Joseph's linebackers have attracted targets from opposing quarterbacks at a league-average rate. Each target represents an opportunity to break up a pass or make a tackle after the pass is completed. Pass break-ups and tackles mean fantasy points.
Fantasy gamers would be sensible to anticipate that both linebackers' statistical production per snap will regress to the mean for the position. Jewell's average draft position of 24th among linebackers in The IDP Show's best-ball drafts is conservative, but it's the safer approach than the top-ten ranking found on some sites.
Singleton has proven himself a prolific run-stopper over three years in two stops – Philadelphia and Denver. He has a better chance of delivering on fantasy gamers' investments. He fits as an LB3 after all the full-time linebackers are off the board.
Safety Justin Simmons has twice been a DB1 in more conservative defenses. Vance Joseph's scheme raises his floor for collecting tackles and increases his upside as a blitzer. He's a value in fantasy drafts. Caden Sterns is likewise a sleeper.
Pat Surtain is on the radar for CB-required leagues. He is at least a streaming option in Week 1 versus Davante Adams and the Raiders. If Surtain shadows Adams, this could portend a strong fantasy season for him.
Damarri Mathis, a 2022 fourth-rounder, was pressed into service due to injury and held his own as a starting cornerback. If he and Surtain can improve upon their play, Vance Joseph can open up his playbook and put offenses on their heels. The effects for fantasy gamers would be more big-play production and waiver wire options like Gregory and Sterns.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.