Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.

Looking for Lessons

Two weeks remain in the NFL regular season while most fantasy leagues stage their playoff championship game. As many fantasy gamers' roster management ends, this column looks back on the 2024 season for lessons to glean for future application. Last week's edition focused on linebackers. This edition covers the defensive front, leaving the secondary for last.

Through 16 weeks, only eight defensive linemen among the position's top 25 scorers also appeared on Footballguys' leaderboard at the end of 2023. This group includes defensive tackles and edge defenders. Eleven of last year's top 25 have missed at least five games due to health including Christian Barmore, who has spent most of the season on the non-football injury (NFI) list. Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL late last year and is one of three 2023 leaders not to take a snap this year.

Last week's column noted that linebacker is, on average, the position that most frequently suffers injuries that result in multi-week absences. The top echelon of NFL pass rushers has been disproportionately impacted by catastrophic injuries in 2024. In contrast, only three players who scored among the top 25 defensive linemen in 2022 missed extended time in 2023.

Talent Matters!

Only two players – Myles Garrett and Danielle Hunter – appear among Footballguys' top 25 fantasy defensive linemen for three consecutive seasons. Nine more might have if injuries had not struck. With two games remaining, Micah Parsons might yet join Garrett and Hunter. The other eight are T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Maxx Crosby, Aidan Hutchinson, Harold Landry III, Cameron Heyward, DeForest Buckner, and Christian Wilkins.

These ten players constitute most of a fantasy DL1 tier that parallels the top wide receivers on offense. These players play reliably high snap counts, play in schemes that provide tackle opportunities, and collect enough quarterback sacks to deliver consistent production in fantasy lineups.

The parallel between fantasy defensive linemen and wide receivers continues down the ranks. Players missing one of the three ingredients of a DL1 often fit into a morass of DL3s, fantasy assets who are match-up dependent or lack big-play upside.

Depressing Situations

Nick Bosa has returned to the top 25 after a one-year hiatus. Reading the Defense addressed in Week 4 why Bosa's scheme-induced scarcity of tackle opportunities lowered his floor as a fantasy asset. Tackles, however, are the lesser part of the recipe for an edge defender's success. After collecting just 10.0 sacks in 2023, Bosa had 7.0 sacks before suffering an injury in the 49ers' 10th game. He returned to action in Week 15 and is hanging onto a top-25 ranking while playing for a struggling team that has fallen out of playoff contention.

Scheme isn't the only factor that can suppress a pass rusher's production. Jacksonville's defense has been a disaster, and it's come at the expense of Josh Hines-Allen's production. The Jaguars' opponents, like those of the 49ers, rotate protections to Hines-Allen because they're not threatened by his battery mates. Moreover, Jacksonville's pass coverage has been head-and-shoulders worse than every other team. Quarterbacks who get the ball out quickly and comfortably don't take many sacks. A top-five DL last year, Hines-Allen is a 2025 bounce-back candidate.

Team coverage rates from weeks 1-16 pic.twitter.com/9offVwR8IO

— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) December 24, 2024

Risers and Upstarts

Last week's edition noted several linebackers who burst onto the scene in full-time roles few saw coming last spring. Surprises like Zack Baun, just one of several players brought in to compete for roles on small contracts, outnumber rising youngsters like his teammate Nakobe Dean. The latter has increased his role in each of his three seasons.

Due partly to major injuries, the heights of Footballguys' leaderboard of defensive linemen include a mix of stars and newcomers. Andrew Van Ginkel's name atop the board is the biggest surprise in recent memory. A Watt brother has ranked among the top two for most of the past dozen seasons and could again this year. T.J. Watt led last year, followed by Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, and Maxx Crosby.

Van Ginkel is one of the eight players appearing on both the 2023 and 2024 leaderboards. The 29-year-old was a fifth-round draft pick of the Dolphins in 2019, occupying a rotational role for most of his five-year tenure in Miami. He opened 2023 as a sub-package off-ball linebacker but returned to the edge to reinforce an injury-depleted outside linebacker room.

The Vikings lost both starting edge defenders to unrestricted free agency last spring. Van Ginkel received the lesser of two contracts given to their replacements. Jonathan Greenard, a rising young player, signed a 4-year $76 million deal. In context, Van Ginkel's 2-years and $20 million looked like an agreement to rotate with first-round pick Dallas Turner. Van Ginkel has not only held off Turner but also contributed to an astonishing season for the entire Vikings team, one that looks certain to earn Kevin O'Connell NFL Coach of the Year honors.

The overlooked piece of the story was that current Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores coached Van Ginkel in Miami from 2019 to 2021. In his third season, Van Ginkel emerged as a starter for Flores at SAM linebacker. The numbers were uneven. Van Ginkel collected only 4.0 sacks to complement 71 combined tackles. As it moved on from Flores, the franchise sought to upgrade from Van Ginkel in the persons of Bradley Chubb and first-round pick Jaelan Phillips.

Andrew Van Ginkel : 5 tackles, 2 sacks & 3 QB hits (11 sacks, 1 forced fumble & 2 pick sixes this season) pic.twitter.com/dyaWaeaurJ

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) December 23, 2024

Beginning at DL #3, young players overwhelmingly occupy spots on the leaderboard vacated by injured established pass rushers. Nik Bonitto, Greenard, Brian Burns, Jeffery Simmons, Kobie Turner, Greg Rousseau, Travon Walker, Jared Verse, Will Anderson Jr., Jonathon Cooper, Anfernee Jennings, and Keion White are all 27 years of age or younger. Only Burns has ranked among the top 25-scoring defensive linemen more than once before this season. The two Patriots, meanwhile, indicate the beginning of the DL3 morass as players fantasy gamers cannot regularly rely on.

Applied Learning

The most illuminating sorting of the top 25 fantasy linemen to date is into (A) good players and (B) players on good teams. Trey Hendrickson leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks while playing for a unit that ranks 28th in yards allowed. Discussed twice in this column this season, Hendrickson has joined the elite in his late twenties. At 33, Kyle Van Noy is enjoying his most prolific season as a pass rusher for the 11-5 Ravens. Baltimore brought Jadeveon Clowney back to life last season.

The Vikings and the Broncos lead the league in Pro Football Reference's Expected Points Contributed by All Defense (EXP). Their edge defenders hold down four of the top 25 spots. Van Ginkel, Greenard, Bonitto, and Cooper might be good players on good teams. Each will require early picks in next summer's fantasy drafts. Within these four, high expectations accompanied only Greenard in 2024. Gamers will be depending on them to sustain their high level of play and production.

A path to mining elite fantasy value in 2025 will be to identify teams, or at least defenses, capable of marked improvement year over year. The Jets' defensive personnel, assuming a healthy Jermaine Johnson, loom as a target. An emerging Chop Robinson is contributing to a Miami unit many expected to regress for lack of pass rushers. Will Detroit invest in its defensive front to reinforce its battery of injured starters like Aidan Hutchinson returning in 2025? Washington's front was feared earlier in this short decade. An influx of talent could present opportunities among the Commanders' returning pass rushers. Seattle's defense in Mike Macdonald's second season could be scary if it's defending leads built by a proficient quarterback.

Rookie Chop Robinson has been the NFL's best pass rusher over the last month and he is a VERY fun watch. Speed and power! If he can fix some balance issues he's going to be even better. pic.twitter.com/p56hC9fBoC

— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) December 12, 2024

Players returning from injury will likely present lesser values, but values nonetheless, next summer. Despite Van Ginkel's heroics, Hutchinson remains the league leader in fantasy points per game by a defensive lineman. Maxx Crosby led all linemen in 2022. He and his numbers struggled through the ankle injury that eventually ended his 2024 campaign. Dexter Lawrence II might be the best interior defender in the game. He still leads all defensive tackles in sacks despite going on IR after 12 games. If Ejiro Evero returns to coordinate the Panthers' defense in 2025, Derrick Brown should plug back into the middle of a tackle-rich environment. The Eagles signed Bryce Huff to succeed Haason Reddick and retiring Brandon Graham, but they might have already drafted his replacement, as Footballguy Darin Tietgen explains, in Nolan Smith Jr.

Thanks for Reading!

Reading the Defense drops each Friday. This column seeks to identify not only whom to target or fade but why. Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter.