Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted perennial DB1 Jordan Poyer with confidence last summer, only to be disappointed. He played deep too often to compile tackles. A year ago, Josey Jewell, Jordan Hicks, and Frankie Luvu were afterthoughts at best. Each finished among fantasy football's top 24 linebackers.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series interprets changes in rosters, player contracts, personnel groupings at organized team activities (OTAs), and insights new coordinators will offer into defensive philosophy. The goal is to read a new defense and anticipate fluctuations in IDP fantasy values.
Changing Schemes
Bloom also speaks of talent, situation, and opportunity as the three legs of a tripod that supports fantasy value. Defensive scheme changes can be so impactful to fantasy value that they constitute a fourth leg. Each season, a quarter to a third of the NFL's teams hire new defensive coordinators.
Reading the New Defense: Philadelphia Eagles addressed the impact of the change in nomenclature from "4-3" to "3-4." Some fantasy football leagues operate on sites that rely on team depth charts for position designations. Such leagues experience drastic shifts in player values based on team nomenclature while the duties of affected players change subtly, if at all. Footballguy Gary Davenport investigates position redesignation in his piece, The Effect of True Position on IDP.
This article is the sixth in a series examining the effects on defenders' fantasy values portended by new defensive schemes. Each piece further contemplates personnel moves and comments about them from the coaching staff and front office.
The first five are as follows:
Eagles | Panthers | Dolphins | Vikings | Browns
The Falcons defense is the first in the series to convert from 3-4 architecture to 4-3 architecture. Fantasy football platforms that rely on conventional positions will change most of the Falcons' pass rushers' designations. The most notable beneficiary is Grady Jarrett, who will return to his familiar undertackle role, a 4-3 defensive tackle, after two years as a 3-4 defensive end.
Ryan Neilsen will implement the new scheme in Atlanta; however, he downplays the change. Like his predecessor, recently retired Dean Pees, Nielsen identifies his defense as "multiple."
The practical impact the franchise desires is an increase in quarterback pressure and sacks. The Falcons finished 32nd in pressure rate in each of the past two seasons and collected a league-worst 39 quarterback sacks over that time. In 2022, Nielsen's only season as co-defensive coordinator in New Orleans, the Saints compiled 48 sacks.
Central Connecticut State was Nielsen's last job as a team's sole defensive coordinator (2008-2009). Nielsen was also the co-defensive coordinator of a Northern Illinois University team that took on Florida State in the 2013 Orange Bowl.
The Huskies ran a straightforward 4-3 defense and stayed in base sets for most of the game versus quarterback E.J. Manuel, the 16th pick of the 2013 NFL Draft. The analysis of this article presumes Nielsen will run a 4-3 defense substantially similar to that he managed under head coach Dennis Allen's leadership in New Orleans.
Defensive Fronts
Nielsen inherits the aforementioned Jarrett, a two-time Pro-Bowler in Dan Quinn's 4-3-under/Cover-3 defense, along with several young pass rushers assembled for Dean Pees's 3-4 defense. Half of the defensive personnel likely to make the roster arrived in Atlanta this spring. All four presumptive starting linemen are in their 30s.
Falcons Interior Defenders
The experienced talent will help Nielsen install his scheme quickly. They are likely to rotate with the youngsters, neutralizing the fantasy value of everyone but Jarrett. The new cast will enable Super Bowl LI's breakout defender to return to the role of a featured interior disruptor.
Second-year tackle Ta'Quon Graham, a former 5th-rounder like Jarrett, represented what little help Jarrett had in the interior last year. The revelation elevated Jarrett's game before a season-ending injury to Graham in Week 11.
Grady Jarrett's Production with Ta'Quon Graham in 2022
| Games | Solo Tackles | Assisted Tackles | Tackles for Loss | QB Sacks | *QB Pressures | Fumble Recoveries | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In-Split | 11 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 5.5 | 34 | 3 |
| Out-of-Split | 6 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 0.5 | 11 | 0 |
| Total | 17 | 27 | 28 | 11 | 6.0 | 45 | 3 |
*QB Pressures from PFF.com
Nielsen brought defensive tackle David Onyemata with him from New Orleans. He and Jarrett will work interchangeably in the two defensive-tackle spots in even fronts. Graham will fill out the rotation, relieving Onyemata most often in run defense. Veteran nose tackle Eddie Goldman will anchor odd fronts.
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Edge Defenders
Ryan Nielsen had no candidate to play strong-side defensive end when he took the job last winter. The Falcons used their third-round pick on Zach Harrison to play behind and learn from free-agent signee Calais Campbell.
Campbell was a force in this role in 2017, finishing second in voting for Defensive Player of the Year. He'll be 37 years old when the 2023 season starts and fits best as part of a deep rotation at this point in his career.
Arnold Ebiketie, a 2022 second-round pick, has reportedly bulked up to play LEO, a wide "9-technique" defensive end. He'll split time with former first-round pick Bud Dupree, another unrestricted free agent.
The Falcons double-dipped for pass rushers in Day 2 of last year's draft. Third-rounder DeAngelo Malone will play JACK linebacker in 2023, a situational pass rusher who will be asked occasionally to drop into coverage for disguised blitzes and simulated pressures.
Malone will rotate with Lorenzo Carter, who is back on a modest new two-year deal. Carter should also see time as a strong-side linebacker that spins down to the edge from the second level to create five-man fronts. Carter will not, however, come close to replicating his 2022 workload of 909 snaps (81% of all Falcons' defensive snaps).
The positions described above will be each player's starting point in Nielsen's scheme install. Those capable of learning and excelling in multiple roles could earn more reps. The table below translates these roles to fantasy football nomenclature. "True-Position Designations" group players by function: interior defenders (DT), edge defenders (DE), and off-ball linebackers in the second level who primarily cover and tackle rather than rush the quarterback (LB).
Falcons' IDP Position Crosswalk
| Player | Falcons Position | 2022 Conventional Position | 2023 Conventional Position | True-Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grady Jarrett | Defensive Tackle | DE | DT | DT |
| David Onyemata | Defensive Tackle | DT (with Saints) | DT | DT |
| Ta'Quon Graham | Defensive Tackle | DE | DT | DT |
| Eddie Goldman | Nose Tackle | DT | DT | DT |
| Calais Campbell | Defensive End | DE (with Ravens) | DE | DE |
| Zach Harrison | Defensive End | DE (in college) | DE | DE |
| Arnold Ebiketie | Defensive End | LB | DE | DE |
| Bud Dupree | Defensive End | LB (with Titans) | DE | DE |
| DeAngelo Malone | Outside Linebacker | LB | LB | DE |
| Lorenzo Carter | Outside Linebacker | LB | LB | DE |
| Troy Andersen | Off-Ball Linebacker | LB | LB | LB |
| Kaden Elliss | Off-Ball Linebacker | LB | LB | LB |
| Mykal Walker | Off-Ball Linebacker | LB | LB | LB |
Building Out Coverages
Hometown fans grew weary of the conservatism of Dean Pees, just as they did with Joe Woods and Ed Donatell in Cleveland and Minnesota, respectively. Ryan Nielsen won't blitz appreciably more often than Pees, but he'll use simulated pressure to get after opposing quarterbacks. Without a premier pass-rusher on the edge, Nielsen's Falcons will utilize their off-ball linebackers in concert with their edge defenders to show numbers but only rush four while the remainder drop into coverage.
#RavensFlock & #Saints faceoff on MNF!
— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 7, 2022
The Saints defense was dominant last week in their shutout win. @DariusJButler shows how the New Orleans defense has cause negative plays for offenses by bringing pressure as well as staying back in coverage.@gregcosell | @PlaybooKFoley pic.twitter.com/UugxM5F9oH
Saints with a nice 2 deep Nickel sim pressure from odd front Dime personnel. Nic wide rushes from o/s the point in the bunch to create the edge rush. Inside move DE is able to win in isolation on the Guard. Nice run out coverage by the 2 ILBs and SS from the LOS. pic.twitter.com/vhDdFwq6Qf
— Blitzology (@blitzologyblog) December 27, 2020
Nielsen also indicates a desire to build defensive fronts that can stop the run with light boxes. If successful, he affords the defense an extra coverage player to double-team a receiver or a second safety deep in coverage.
Nielsen will rely more frequently on man coverage than Dean Pees did in 2022. The Falcons continued their low-cost acquisitions of former first-round picks in the persons of Jeff Okudah and Mike Hughes. They allocated a huge chunk of their newfound cap space on a back-end eraser, former Bengal and unrestricted free agent Jessie Bates III.
| NFL SOUTH Coverage Matrix |
— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) March 17, 2023
> Cov 1 👑: #Saints (C1 + Qtrs)
> Cov 3 👑: #Buccaneers (CAR/ATL are close)
> MOFâ•ï¸ 👑: #Panthers (Qtrs), #Falcons (C2)
- Cover 3 dominant division outside NO
- CAR & NO outliers in Qtrs usage#ArtofX x #NFL pic.twitter.com/tiEvwC7ep9
Falcons Linebackers
The Saints opened the 2022 season with Demario Davis playing full-time in the middle and a second linebacker, Pete Werner, on the field for 80 percent of its defensive snaps. Former seventh-round pick Kaden Elliss emerged after Werner suffered an injury leading to a multi-game absence. Elliss had opened the season as the third linebacker, playing a minority of the Saints' defensive snaps.
Elliss's rookie contract ended in New Orleans, so he followed Ryan Nielsen to Atlanta for a larger role. He'll join 2022 second-round pick Troy Andersen and Mykal Walker in the Falcons' second level. Walker will play third fiddle while the early pick pairs with Elliss in nickel sub-packages. Elliss, who knows the system, appears to be supporting Andersen's maturation into the defensive signal caller.
Elliss and Andersen are somewhat interchangeable players in size, athleticism, and experience level. Both were pass-rushers at points in their college careers, and both were suspect in coverage in the NFL last year. Both players have upside in big-play scoring fantasy football formats but lower ceilings as tacklers. Their pass-rush opportunities in blitzes and simulated pressures combined with above-average use of man coverage should keep both players' efficiency as tacklers below average. While one will play full-time to relay signals, the other will give way to a sixth defensive back 15-20 percent of the time.
Kaden Elliss made a huge leap this season 💪#Saints pic.twitter.com/z1fppqYdYc
— Saints Daily (@_SaintsDaily) February 14, 2023
Safeties
Jessie Bates III developed a reputation as a fantasy asset early in his career. He was the last line of defense in a bad defense year after year and piled up tackles as a result. Since the Bengals emerged as Super Bowl contenders, Bates's tackle totals tailed off.
Richie Grant was the Atlanta safety that piled up tackles (123) in a bad Falcons' defense in 2022. He'll pair with Bates in the back end for 2023. Bates is the accomplished centerfielder and will see significant time deep behind man coverage. Grant, then, should see more reps nearer to the line of scrimmage as the strong safety.
At 6-foot-0 and 200 pounds, Grant isn't exactly a banger like former Falcon Keanu Neal. Jaylinn Hawkins, who started alongside Grant in 2022, is taller, heavier, and profiles as a box safety more so than Grant. Hawkins is no threat to Grant's role as a starter, but he fits as a Buffalo nickel and dime linebacker. Grant saw most of his limited playing time as a rookie in 2021 in the slot. Hawkins's presence, Grant's versatility, and an uptick in two-high-safety looks will keep the starting strong safety from ranking among league leaders in box snaps.
HUGE stop from Jaylinn Hawkins on third down ðŸ‘
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 26, 2021
📺: FOX | @jhawko6 pic.twitter.com/qKN34zQYAn
Cornerbacks
A.J. Terrell had a down year as an NFL cornerback and as a fantasy IDP. He was drafted by a previous regime to play physical man coverage. He'll return to that role in 2023. His play and his statistical output should benefit.
The Falcons traded a late pick to the Lions for the third overall selection of the 2020 NFL draft, Jeff Okudah. Nielsen will plug in the newcomer opposite Terrell and hope Okudah finds his footing in a role very much like that he played in Detroit last year. He will be two years removed from a torn Achilles tendon in September 2023.
Falcons 2023 Outlook
Atlanta pushed their chips in with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and other stars that carried them to Super Bowl LI. Their cap hits finally expired in 2022 well after the bettors were fired. The new general manager and coaches treated their newfound cap space like money burning holes in their pockets. Of their big expenditures, only Bates and guard Chris Lindstrom are close to top-shelf players at their positions.
The team inarguably had numerous holes in its depth chart to fill. Ryan Nielsen must congeal a number of newcomers roughly equal to the number of returning regulars into a cohesive unit. Nielsen's first goal for 2023 might be a league-average pass rush.
Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is the only Atlanta pass rusher worth pursuing in fantasy drafts. He is well-positioned to build upon his 2022 totals in both tackles (55 combined) and sacks (6.0). Early drafters are criminally undervaluing him for 2023. He doesn't have quite the talent of DeForest Buckner, but nothing justifies the 100-pick gap between them in The IDP Show's IDP-only best-ball drafts. (ADP is available with The IDP Draft Kit.) Defensive tackle is not typically a position to fade, so gamers targeting Jarrett should look for him once 12 tackles are off the board.
Grady mf'n Jarrett pic.twitter.com/BOZ5RmFH8J
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) September 12, 2022
Linebacker Troy Andersen might be considered a low-end LB2 simply because he's nearly certain to play full-time in the middle of the Falcons' defense. He better fits roster construction as an LB3 due to his below-average potential for tackle collection and the risk that he fails in his first full season relaying signals.
Linebacker Kaden Elliss has a fan club that's pushing him up draft boards. Enthusiasts' expectations are that Elliss will simply improve upon his tackle (78 combined) and sack totals (7.0) from 2022 with more playing time. The Saints' defense was remarkably fortunate to collect 48 sacks last season, and Elliss was the primary beneficiary. New Orleans generated pressure 17.5 percent of the time, ranking 29th in the NFL, only incrementally better than Atlanta (14.6%). Elliss is an LB4 at best outside of fantasy leagues that handsomely reward sacks and tackles for loss. Elliss's best path for outperforming that mark is to take on the green dot in lieu of Andersen and play full-time.
Cornerback A.J. Terrell should rebound in this defense and reestablish himself as a weekly starter in CB-required leagues. His ball skills should get him back to the numbers he posted in passes defensed (16) and interceptions (3) in 2021. Jeff Okudah is a good streaming candidate opposite Terrell against stronger passing attacks.
Richie Grant fits what fantasy gamers are looking for in a defensive back. He's a strong safety with a running mate who will take on most of the deep duties in a predominantly single-high scheme. The time he'll spend as a split safety or slot defender in big-nickel sub-packages shaves off a DB1 ceiling, but he still comfortably fits fantasy rosters as a DB2.
Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen will hope that Grant does not finish fourth among defensive backs in tackles (123) again this year. Even still, he can't expect his unit to rank among the top ten defenses in the league.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.