The Effect of True Position on IDP

The NFL is a constantly-evolving sport. On offense, the days of the I Formation and power run games are gone, replaced by spread formations, three and four-receiver sets, and passes galore.

As offenses have changed, defenses have followed suit. As Bryan Knowles wrote for Football Outsiders, in 2021, there was not one NFL team that spent 40 percent of their defensive snaps in a base defense. Only six teams (the Texans, Jaguars, Dolphins, Vikings, Steelers, and Seahawks) spent over 30 percent of their defensive snaps in their base. There were actually more teams (seven) that aligned in base sets less than 20 percent of the time, and two teams (the Bills and Cowboys) checked in under 5 percent.

Conversely, a whopping 29 teams were in a 4-2-5 (nickel) alignment over half the time. Six teams were in that alignment for over 70 percent of their defensive snaps — the Bills, Cowboys, Colts, Falcons, Eagles, and Jets.

The nickel has become the new base defense. And in recent years, IDP providers have made an effort to change with the times. For some, it has meant new positional designations like edge rusher and interior defender. For others, it has meant affording many players eligibility at multiple positions. And some providers have simply changed how some players are classified.

More IDP providers than not are now using some variation of the format, and the IDP rankings here at Footballguys will reflect that shifting landscape moving forward.

The changes have been labeled True Position by some in the IDP community. And as is the case with most sizable changes in fantasy, some folks don't like it one bit. But the reality is that True Position isn't as seismic a shift as some have made it out to be.

And it actually affords savvy IDP managers an opportunity to build an even more formidable roster in 2023.

What Is True Position?

Here are the changes in a nutshell.

All 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers are now classified as DE or edge rushers. It makes sense—T.J. Watt of the Steelers shares a lot more in common with defensive ends like Myles Garrett of the Browns than with off-ball linebackers like Baltimore's Roquan Smith.

All 3-4 defensive linemen and 4-3 defensive tackles are now classified as DT or interior defender. Again, Cameron Heyward of the Steelers shares more in common role-wise with Aaron Donald of the Rams than with Garrett.

There are some outliers—4-3 OLBs like Micah Parsons of the Cowboys and Haason Reddick of the Eagles who are classified as DE or edge rusher because, well, that's what they are. But for the most part, that's it—4-3 ends and 3-4 rush linebackers are lumped together now. So are 4-3 tackles and 3-4 defensive linemen.

It's really not that complicated.

The change more accurately reflects how defense is played in 2023. It will also prevent changes in positional eligibility when a player switches teams in free agency or a coordinator is brought in who changes the scheme. It didn't matter this year who drafted Alabama's Will Anderson—he was going to be a DE/edge rusher regardless.

Nervousness about change aside, it's a good thing for IDP in the long term. It will make for a much more consistent fantasy landscape moving forward.

What Do the Changes Mean for Player Value?

Broadly speaking, the pool of IDP-relevant players on the defensive line just got considerably deeper. That‘s a major shift—for years, the defensive line was the shallowest position group in IDP leagues. That's no longer the case.

That new depth had to come from somewhere—and it came at the expense of the linebackers. The number of true every-down off-ball linebackers was already shrinking in recent years. With the pass-rushers now joining the defensive linemen, the pool is shallower still. It's the main source of criticism of True Position.

However, it's worth pointing out that many 3-4 rush linebackers were only marginally rosterable in many IDP leagues, anyway. No one was rushing off to draft Preston Smith of the Packers or Azeez Ojulari of the Giants. They were waiver wire fodder.

From an individual perspective, the elite 3-4 linebackers have seen a boost in value—a boost that is reflected in the most recent IDP Rankings here at Footballguys. As dominant as T.J. Watt is as a player, he was only a top-15 (ish) linebacker. Now? He's the No. 1 defensive lineman. Players like Kayvon Thibodeaux of the Giants and Harold Landry of the Titans have gone from the IDP fringes to the top 20. Players like Smith and Ojulari are now viable late-round dart throws

How Does True Position Change IDP Draft Strategy?

I have actually been playing in leagues that use True Position for several years now, and while many expect it to have a drastic impact on how drafts play out, the reality is that the shift isn't as staggering as many fear.

Linebackers have long been the lifeblood of successful IDP rosters, and the recent reduction in true every-down players had already increased their value. Yes, a shallower pool of talent only serves to ratchet their value up even more, but the fact is that if you weren't already attacking the linebacker position on draft day, you weren't having much success in IDP.

The new depth along the defensive line affords IDP managers options. Before, if you didn't roster two of the top 20 or so defensive linemen, there was a price to be paid. That urgency has been reduced. But there are still going to be managers willing to pay a high price for Watt, Garrett, and Maxx Crosby. And there's still an edge to be gained by having an elite defensive lineman on the roster.

So, here's what you do.

Your Strategy

When the time comes to start fleshing out your defensive roster, hit that depleted linebacker position—hard. Three of your first four defensive picks should be linebackers. This isn't to say that you should ignore offense and go wild on IDPs. But if you can land three top-25 linebackers (assuming your league has that many weekly starters), it will set you up with a solid foundation at IDP's most important position.

That fourth IDP pick will be spent on a player to anchor the defensive front. It doesn't have to be Watt or Garrett, although if you're willing to pay up for them, have at it. But you want one top 8-10 set-and-forget lineman you can roll out every week with confidence.

From there, it's a matter of adding more linebackers, grabbing another starter on the defensive line and potentially drafting a defensive back. There's no concrete do-this-then-that-then-this draft-by-numbers strategy for this part of the draft. You have to wait and see how things play out. Follow the value. If there's a must to this part of the draft, it's making sure that you have a relatively reliable cadre of linebackers and a second defensive lineman who won't be a major liability.

True Position can actually help you in that regard—at least in 2023. Many IDP managers aren't especially familiar with 3-4 rush linebackers, as they just weren't fantasy-relevant in the past. And that means some fall farther in drafts than they should, whether it's a guy with top-10 potential like Matthew Judon of the Patriots or sneaky DL2 targets like Jaelan Phillips of the Dolphins.

It's also worth noting that Judon and Phillips both posted 60 tackles in 2022. It's not universal, but as a rule, 3-4 rush linebackers tend to amass better tackle numbers than many 4-3 ends. Preston Smith flirted with 60 stops and had 8.5 sacks in 2022, and he'll be available late. Watch.

If your IDP league requires defensive tackles, True Position has deepened that pool, as well. An argument can be made for investing in a high-end option like Jonathan Allen of the Commanders, but when you can wait and still land a guy like Tennessee's Jeffery Simmons, the pressure to pay up for a big name is alleviated somewhat.

At defensive back, nothing changes. The plan is as the plan always has been. Wait. The position is too plentiful and too unpredictable to justify spending valuable draft capital on high-end options. Wait, flesh out the DL and LB, and then shoot for upside fliers.

I'm well aware that True Position will have a sizable impact on existing dynasty leagues—I advocated for the change at MyFantasyLeague for the past several years. Some rosters have experienced significant upheaval. But that's part of playing in dynasties. Holes can be filled. Trades can be made. And there's no more worrying about free agency or coaching changes spurring a big round of classification changes.

It's one year of tumult for the sake of many years of consistency.

That lack of consistency regarding player classifications has been a bone of contention for IDP managers for years. Those days are done now. A new age has begun. An age of peace. An age of tranquility. The age of True Position.

And if you know how to take advantage of the changing landscape, you can be Truly successful in 2023.

See what I did there?