Reading the Defense is a weekly column that considers the effects of player deployment and schematic trends on individual defensive players' fantasy value. While analytics take hold in NFL front offices and sidelines, data-driven decision-making also benefits fantasy gamers.
Looking for Lessons
One week remains in the NFL regular season while most fantasy leagues have concluded their seasons. As many fantasy gamers' roster management ends, this column looks back on the 2024 season for lessons to glean for future application. Week 16's edition focused on linebackers. Defensive linemen appeared last week. The 2024 series of Reading the Defense concludes with the defensive backfield.
Eight players from NFL secondaries rank among the position group's top 25 scorers in both 2024 and 2023. Quite notably, eight defensive linemen also appear on both year's leaderboards. While the total of eight is low for linemen, it's more typical in the secondary. Based on historical data, repeat performances are statistically less likely by defensive backs than defensive linemen. In 2023, only four defensive backs repeated top-25 finishes.
Year-over-year consistency is rarer in the defensive backfield for two reasons. First, the position group scores fewer points per full-time player than linebackers. More simply, they make fewer tackles because they line up farther from the football at the snap.
Second, far more defensive backs play full-time than linebackers. Even within the secondary, more safeties play full-time than linebackers, and more cornerbacks play full-time than linebackers.
As a result, scoring at the position is flat. The margins between players' scoring is miniscule beyond the top few players. Highly unpredictable occurrences like defensive touchdowns make big differences in fantasy scoring. DaRon Bland burst onto the scene and into the top ten last year with five TDs. Without these 30 points, he resides 16 spots lower.
The small margins and variability at the position fueled a discussion internal to the Footballguys IDP team as to whether a player with a preseason rank or ADP of 10 could be undervalued. In a universe including more than 100 full-time players, forecasting 5th versus 10th seems like splitting hairs. Patrick Mahomes II's rank of 10th among quarterbacks is a much bigger disappointment than 17th-ranked Derwin James Jr. Mahomes is 8.4 points per game behind top-ranked Lamar Jackson, while James is 2.4 points per game behind defensive backfield leader Budda Baker.
A Throwback Season?
The top 13 defensive backs in fantasy points on the Footballguys leaderboard are all safeties on teams that lean single-high in their coverage choices. Through 2018, safeties always dominated defensive backfield fantasy scoring. A safety was categorically preferable to a cornerback in fantasy football.
Logan Ryan broke through in 2019 as a nickelback for the Titans, leading all defensive backs in fantasy points. NFL passing games were approaching historical heights in production. In 2020, defenses began using more two-high-safety coverages to combat big plays. With both safeties deep, nickelbacks took on more responsibility in run defense and blitzing. The intent to disguise coverages required each safety to operate more interchangeably. In 2018, players like Keanu Neal and Landon Collins routinely played low while their counterparts played high. Since then, disparities in deployment between safeties on the same team have shrunken; meanwhile, leaguewide passing yardage has declined precipitously since 2020.
In his rookie season for the Raiders, Tre'von Moehrig played 1,058 of his 1,152 snaps deep, according to Pro Football Focus. His role has evolved to include more frequent alignment nearer the line of scrimmage in each of the three years since. He played the plurality of his snaps in the box in 2024 for the first time. His increased proximity to the football helps fuel his position of 13th among fantasy defensive backs.
What's remarkable about Moehrig's evolution in deployment is not the gross increase in box snaps but rather the divergence in deployment relative to his running mate from 2023 to 2024. First Marcus Epps and then Isaiah Pola-Mao played mostly deep alongside Moehrig this year. This disparity is reminiscent of 2018. Any foreshadowing in Las Vegas of this evolution in game planning escaped this writer's attention.
Current Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen deployed a predominantly left-right defensive system in Tennessee from 2021 to 2023 that made only marginal discrepancies in safety deployment. The Giants drafted Tyler Nubin to play alongside incumbent starter Jason Pinnock. The only evidence that the veteran would occupy a predominantly deep role appeared in a scant 20 preseason snaps. In his more diverse role, Nubin likely would have finished among the top 25-scoring fantasy defensive backs had he remained healthy.
Gus Bradley is arguably the NFL's last remaining defensive coordinator using a scheme substantially similar to those of the previous decade in which the box role and deep role are clearly disparate and disparately occupied. Bradley threw fantasy gamers off by switching his free safety, Nick Cross, with his strong safety, Julian Blackmon, early in the season after a multi-week injury to the incumbent starter Blackmon. Cross ranks second among fantasy defensive backs thanks in part to optimal deployment.
Those taking issue with the opening statement of the last paragraph would name Teryl Austin. Pittsburgh runs more single-high safety coverages than anyone. DeShon Elliott was the first Steelers strong safety to capitalize on this optimal deployment in a decade. He sits at 12th on the Footballguys leaderboard despite missing two games.
#FFIDP - Safety tackle efficiency by defensive alignment (2021-2023), per @PFF:
— Jon Macri (@PFF_Macri) June 4, 2024
BOX: 11.1% ?
WIDE: 10.4% ???
SLOT: 9.6% ?
-- Average: 9.1% --
DEEP: 8.5% ?
DL: 7.9% ?
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Risers and Upstarts
Suddenly changing situations like several noted above make upstarts more common than risers in the fantasy defensive backfield. That doesn't mean they can't be foreseen. Brandon Jones was a preseason target of many. The former Dolphin signed a lucrative deal in free agency to replace Justin Simmons in Denver. The Broncos' aggressive defense afforded him opportunities to finish third among all fantasy defensive backs after years of rotational play in Miami.
Brian Branch and Quentin Lake both emerged as playmakers at nickelback in 2023. Lake added base-set safety to his responsibilities in Los Angeles this season, while Branch focused on safety in Detroit.
These two risers could be fixtures on the fantasy leaderboard for years; however, their situations must be monitored. Lake took a step back in coverage this year, and rookie deep safety Kamren Kinchens has established himself as a factor.
Branch has posted a rate of tackles (solo or assisted) per snap of 12 percent en route to third place among defensive backs despite missing a game. In 2023, his tackle rate was 10 percent as the Lions' primary nickel. Branch has played in the slot much more frequently in the past two weeks as Ifeatu Melifonwu made his season debut at strong safety in Week 16.
.@Lions DB @BrianBB_1 is the @NFL's third DB since at least 1999 to record 100+ tackles, 15+ PDs and 5+ TFLs in a single season, joining:
— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) December 31, 2024
- CB Rodne Barber (2006)
- S Rodney Harrison (2000)#OnePride pic.twitter.com/OoRqJsguXE
Managing Expectations for 2025
Fantasy gamers must be wary of regression year over year because defensive backs are the players least likely to repeat on fantasy leaderboards. Coaching changes are among the top reasons. The Carolina and Indianapolis defenses haven't been able to get off the field this year. Xavier Woods and Nick Cross are DB1s due partly to volume. Woods and Cross lead all safeties in snaps played through 17 weeks.
Carolina's Ejiro Evero might be excused for a dearth of talent and a spate of injuries to starters, but it's hard to imagine Gus Bradley will be back in Indianapolis. His unit allowed the sixth-best quarterback performance in history, measured by EPA per play, to Drew Lock and the flailing Giants in a loss that eliminated the Colts from playoff contention. Cross's plum box safety role might not be there in 2025.
Two defensive backs played more than half of their snaps in the box. Minnesota's Joshua Metellus is a repeat performer on the fantasy leaderboard. Kansas City's Justin Reid fell out of the top 25 this year. Reid's contract is set to expire, and the Chiefs might have his replacement on the roster. Fourth-rounder Jaden Hicks profiled as a box safety last spring and has experienced steady growth in playing time throughout his rookie season. Hicks is a riser going into 2025.
We're getting more and more of Jaden Hicks, and he's getting more and more comfortable
— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) November 12, 2024
2-minute drill DIME defense. Hicks is playing man coverage on the RB from depth -- so he has no time to waste when the RB leaks to the opposite flat
Great tracking & tackle #Chiefs pic.twitter.com/75l3PAyk0j
Big nickelbacks on teams that rely on two-high presentation didn't emerge as fantasy assets as strongly as I anticipated in September. Julian Love is turning in his third consecutive DB1 season on a Seattle team frequently deploying three-safety sets under new head coach Mike Macdonald. Meanwhile, James, Metellus, and Lake settled in as DB2s (although James missed a game). Reid ranks as a DB3. The Vikings' and Chiefs' slot cornerbacks, Byron Murphy Jr. and Chamarri Conner, each outscored their teammate box safeties in fantasy points per game.
The current fantasy leaderboard of defensive backs resembles those of years gone by partly because Arizona's Budda Baker is again near the top. Baker finished second in 2019 and 2020. Baker has reemerged not as a low safety in Cover-3 like Cross but as an attacker from the Cardinals' innovative three-high structures. Cody Alexander explains in this film review on his Substack, "MatchQuarters," in which he cites Baker as the NFL's best box safety.
The Patriots and Panthers have dabbled with three high safeties, but no team has adopted it as the new base defense that it has become in college football. The Cardinals' use of two other safeties in more confined roles enables Baker to roam and make plays. This columnist remains eagerly vigilant for the emergence of three-high looks and their impact on fantasy values.
The Cardinals extended Baker this month, making him arguably the best bet to repeat as a DB1 in 2025. He might even prove a minor value next summer if gamers chase flashier players like Derwin James Jr., Kyle Hamilton, Jessie Bates III, and Antoine Winfield Jr.
Thanks for Reading!
This is the final edition of Reading the Defense for the 2024 NFL season. Those interested in this content should watch for Reading the New Defense in 2025. Each edition will evaluate IDPs' prospects under new coordinators and potentially changing schemes. Anticipated switches from one-high to two-high structures, or vice versa, will create significant foreseeable changes in player productivity in 2025. This writer will be alert for any whiff of three-high structures throughout the offseason.
I sincerely thank those of you who have followed along. I'd love to hear if and how this content has helped you. If it serves its purpose, this column has made readers better fantasy footballers. I invite you to contact and follow me @DynastyTripp on the website formerly known as Twitter. I look forward to hearing from you!