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Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often opines that there is no longer an information advantage in fantasy football. Increased media coverage of the NFL scouting combine, breaking news on social media, and advanced analytics are all equalizers in fantasy football competition.
Coverage of skill-position players is a daily exercise. NFL defenses, however, do not enjoy the same limelight. Offense is to the big city what defense is to the small town. News of defenders travels more slowly and is less sensationalized. Complex data for analysis are harder to come by. IDP fantasy gamers find themselves unaware of important changes to player values hiding in plain sight.
Fantasy gamers drafted perennial DB1 Jordan Poyer with confidence last summer, only to be disappointed. He played deep too often to compile tackles. A year ago, Josey Jewell, Jordan Hicks, and Frankie Luvu were afterthoughts at best. Each finished among fantasy football's top 24 linebackers.
Clues foreshadowing these revelations exist. This series interprets changes in rosters, player contracts, personnel groupings at organized team activities (OTAs), and insights new coordinators will offer into defensive philosophy. The goal is to read a new defense and anticipate fluctuations in IDP fantasy values.
Changing Schemes
Bloom also speaks of talent, situation, and opportunity as the three legs of a tripod that supports fantasy value. Defensive scheme changes can be so impactful to fantasy value that they constitute a fourth leg. Each season, a quarter to a third of the NFL's teams hire new defensive coordinators.
Reading the New Defense: Philadelphia Eagles addressed the impact of the change in nomenclature from "4-3" to "3-4." Some fantasy football leagues operate on sites that rely on team depth charts for position designations. Such leagues experience drastic shifts in player values based on team nomenclature while the duties of affected players change subtly, if at all. Footballguy Gary Davenport investigates position redesignation in his piece, The Effect of True Position on IDP.
This article is the fifth in a series examining the effects on defenders' fantasy values portended by new defensive schemes. Each piece further contemplates personnel moves and comments about them from the coaching staff and front office.
The Browns' 4-3 defense is the first of its type covered in the series. Jim Schwartz replaces Joe Woods and will retain his 4-3 nomenclature. Schwartz's scheme will nevertheless introduce schematic differences from Woods's approach that alter IDPs' outlook for 2023.
Like Ed Donatell, a topic in the fourth edition of this series, Joe Woods was criticized for being too conservative last year. Jim Schwartz won't blitz appreciably more often than Woods, but he will order up more press-man coverage and fewer soft zones. The Browns' recent first-round picks at cornerback will be asked to deny receivers the football.
Cleveland offers Schwartz his fourth opportunity to coordinate a defense. He was also the Lions' head coach from 2009 to 2013 and, most recently, an assistant for the Titans. He helped build the reputation of the Eagles' defensive line as the most feared in the league, which included a Super Bowl victory.
Defensive Fronts
The 2022 Browns' defensive line was the team's weak link if Deshaun Watson's anemic play can be overlooked. Joe Woods was criticized for failing to solve the frequent double teams faced by All-Pro end Myles Garrett.
Schwartz will rely on spacing and stunts to attack opposing offenses. Stunts lived on in Philadelphia after Schwartz's departure, where they have been particularly effective. The Cowboys have used stunts as much as any NFL team and have reaped some of the highest rates of quarterback pressures and sacks over the past two seasons.
Browns Interior Defenders
The play of their interior, led by Jaguars cast-off Taven Bryan, was entirely predictable before the 2022 season even started. He was paired with 2020 third-round pick Jordan Elliott.
To become more stout at the point of attack, Cleveland signed unrestricted free-agent tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. Elliott will have another chance to grow into his upside, but sophomore Perrion Winfrey will have more opportunities to show what he can do in 2023.
Schwartz can use a disruptive interior presence to pressure the quarterback a la Fletcher Cox. Elliott or Winfrey would need a huge step forward to emerge as a fantasy presence, but the opportunity for a deep sleeper is there.
Edge Defenders
The Browns made further investments in their defensive line by signing Ogbo Okoronkwo and trading for Za'Darius Smith. Okoronkwo's resume screams rotational journeyman, but he finally earned a consistent starting role down the stretch in 2022 and flashed starter's ability.
Okoronkwo's chances to sustain his impact in Cleveland might depend on how much Smith has left in the tank. After missing almost all of 2021, Smith looked like his dominant self at first. The 31-year-old had 9.5 of his 10.0 quarterback sacks in the first half of the season.
Smith made an impact as an interior rusher in NASCAR packages earlier in his career as a Packer. Jim Schwartz should experiment with all three edges on the field in obvious passing situations to offset Cleveland's weakness at defensive tackle.
Building Out Coverages
Jim Schwartz's past tendencies have been to rely on single-high coverages (Cover-1 and Cover-3) in frequent nickel personnel. His time in Tennessee with the Titans' 3-4 architecture and two-high-safety coverages might inform a more diverse approach in 2023. How much evolves his approach is hard to predict, but his personnel deployment is likely to reflect his recent track record (image below).
Browns Linebackers
Two weekly linebackers could emerge relevant for fantasy gamers in 2023 due to Schwartz's frequent nickel sub-packages. Four enigmatic candidates will compete to do so.
The Browns re-signed two of their regulars from 2022 despite their season-ending injuries. Anthony Walker opened last season as the team's top linebacker and should be fully healthy by training camp, but he returns on a league-minimum deal that implies he's just depth.
Sione Takitaki underwent ACL repair on December 14, 2022. He'll make more than twice as much as Walker, suggesting the team has plans for him once he returns to health. A full workload is unlikely for the season opener.
Fourth-year man Jacob Phillips was once a high-upside prospect. Injuries have slowed him down in each of his three seasons. He is closer to the roster bubble than a regular role despite a brief stint as a full-time linebacker in 2022.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah made a splash as a rookie in 2021 but struggled as a sophomore behind the Browns' weak defensive line. Joe Woods's defense required linebackers that could read, shed blocks, and react. His terrible defensive tackles routinely allowed guards to climb to the second level, where they could overwhelm the undersized Koramoah.
Jim Schwartz prefers linebackers who can run and strike. Koramoah's speed will help him beat blockers to points of attack in run defense. His athleticism makes him a better fit for Schwartz's man coverages than his competition for reps.
Safeties
The Browns needed a centerfielder to make Jim Schwartz's defense work, so they signed Juan Thornhill in free agency. Grant Delpit, at 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds, returns at strong safety.
In 2022, his first season as a full-time player, Delpit finished second in combined tackles in run defense (72) behind Jalen Pitre, according to Pro Football Focus. He was solid in coverage, allowing just 21 receptions on 41 targets. With relatively few tackle opportunities in coverage, he totaled just 105 in 1089 snaps, a mediocre rate for a strong safety. Delpit broke up 10 passes in 2022, indicating he could be effective in denying the football to his assignment in Schwartz's man coverage. His anticipated robber role in Cover-1 will keep him close to the line of scrimmage for more tackle opportunities in 2023.
This right here â¬‡ï¸ is the type of stuff that the #Browns were missing. A deep-coverage free safety with the type of field awareness and range that Juan Thornhill has, mixed with a versatile, aggressive box-safety like Grant Delpit is going to be scary.
— Matt Wilson (@CoachWilson66) March 16, 2023
pic.twitter.com/iIToTv4bFG
Cornerbacks
Denzel Ward, the fourth overall pick of the 2018 draft, broke up 15 passes in just 69 targets faced in 2022. The Browns' other former first-rounder, Greg Newsome II, also faced 69 targets. Rookie Martin Emerson tied with Ward for sixth in the league in passes defensed. The rookie faced 91 targets in coverage despite being the third cornerback, making a strong anecdotal case for Footballguy John Norton's "rookie corner rule."
These totals in passes defensed already look like numbers one would expect from an aggressive defense. Ward is one of the league's best and underappreciated cornerbacks. Emerson is 6-foot-2. It's hard to imagine either would have upside in the category, but the scheme change suggests it.
Newsome enjoyed the optimal deployment for a fantasy cornerback last season. He started on the boundary in base and moved inside in sub-packages. It didn't translate to production for fantasy gamers. He was too effective in coverage, allowing a completion percentage of 58.0% despite an average depth of target of 8.1 yards, according to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats. He made just 14 tackles in run defense versus Ward's 13 and Emerson's 10 despite more snaps inside, closer to the football.
Newsome's lack of production could be related to his distaste for the linebacker-like duties of a slot defender in two-high-safety sets. The Browns will man the slot by committee in 2023.
Browns 2023 Outlook
Jim Scwhartz's defenses were among the best of the past decade (2011-2020). His approach to coverages was on-trend, relying on a single-high safety with field awareness and range in support of aggressive cornerbacks. NFL offenses have developed solutions to these Cover-1/Cover-3 defenses, forcing more to split-safety pre-snap looks and two-high coverages. Schwartz's success will depend on his ability to adapt his defense to current requirements of unpredictability and variety.
Schwartz's scheming to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks will translate. Myles Garrett consistently goes last among the five elite DE1s in early drafts (ADP collected by The IDP Show). He has the tools and now the help to finish first.
Fantasy gamers egregiously faded Za'Darius Smith last summer after he missed almost all of 2021. He played effectively for the Vikings in a reduced role (70% of snaps) relative to his time in Green Bay, where he played huge snap volumes. He fits fantasy rosters as a DE3 or DL4 opposite Garrett.
Cleveland's interior defenders are positioned to score for fantasy gamers and are watch-list candidates. Perhaps Perrion Winfrey will overtake Jordan Elliott and build momentum as a factor for 2023.
Early draft results suggest that fantasy gamers have no idea what to do with Cleveland's linebackers. The situation is fairly simple, albeit fluid. Anthony Walker should open the season in the middle but give way to Sione Takitaki once the more highly-paid player returns to full health.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is the wildcard. The new scheme sets him up for success. His speed and athleticism add value that Walker can't match. His position coach, however, publicly expressed Koramoah's need to develop his body for NFL play last December and after OTAs last month.
Fantasy gamers need to read reports from training camp that Owusu-Koramoah has bulked up. Without good weight, he's a part-time player who could lose sub-package duties to Walker once Takitaki returns. All are virtually free in early fantasy drafts. As Footballguys Gary Davenport and Kyle Bellefeuil note, Walker is the smartest draft pick among them. Fantasy gamers can hedge the investment with in-season waivers.
Safety Grant Delpit finished last season 16th in total fantasy points by Footballguys scoring. He could build on that finish in 2023.
Fantasy gamers are likely to chase last year's points in the person of Martin Emerson Jr. He's an unsafe bet as a part-time boundary defender. Denzel Ward should be a priority for those in big-play scoring formats.
Analysis at Footballguys aims to equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.