Cracking FanDuel Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Update #2 11:45 EST

Kareem Hunt is active this week, in somewhat of a surprise. However, this is likely that the Browns are not deep at the running back position, and it still should be Jerome Ford getting most of the work this week. It's not ideal, but I'm sticking with Jerome Ford this week. I had him in the lineup prior to the Hunt news, liked him even more without him, but sticking with it. If anything, this should make it so that people are not as high on Ford this week in a very favorable matchup.

Update: 9:45 AM EST

• Kareem Hunt appears that he will miss this week, although he's going to try to test it in warmups. This vaults Jerome Ford up to one of the top value running backs on this slate.
• Zach Charbonnet is out this week, Deejay Dallas will serve as the backup, but what this really means is that the Seahawks should be using Kenneth Walker as much as he can handle on this slate. He's a top play this week on FanDuel although the price is prohibitive at $8,800.
• Zach Evans does not appear that he will have a major role this week, as it looks like Darrell Henderson will get the starting role for the Rams. Do not play Evans.
• Deshaun Watson will start for Cleveland barring any surprises during warmups.

Lineup Update:

With Deshaun Watson playing, Amari Cooper looks more and more attractive this week. Cooper has top-10 wide receiver upside as we've seen topping 90-yards in three of his last four games. This has some other impacts, as we need to move off of David Njoku as having three Browns players is not something we want to do. So moving him to Luke Musgrave for Green Bay, is going to be a popular play this week. At this point, I'm confident in the rest of the lineup, that having a tight end that most will have is completely fine as the lineup should be able to win at different positions.

• QB Lamar Jackson, BAL, $8,000
• RB Jerome Ford, CLE, $6,600
• RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, $6,200
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,700
• WR Amari Cooper, CLE, $6,800
• WR Zay Flowers, BAL, $6,300
• TE Luke Musgrave, GB, $5,000
• Flex RB Josh Jacobs, LV, $8,000
• TD New York Giants, $3,400

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

This is another week where only two games are projected to score over 25 points. What is even crazier than last week, is that the next highest scoring team besides these two teams is just 23.5 points.

• Kansas City (vs LAC) – 28.25 points
• Seattle (vs ARI) – 27.5 points

Week 6 Recap

Last week was another positive week pushing the lineup up to 5-1 on the season. All I can think about at this point is what would have happened if Dorian Thompson-Robinson wasn’t announced the starter as the Primary Cash Lineup would be 6-0 at this point.

Last week, the lineup was a close one as the cut line in 50/50’s was around 120-121 points in most 50/50 contests. The lineup finishing at 123.74 could have easily flipped to a losing week. However, to have a winning week when you only had four total touchdowns is a great sign that we’re locked in as my philosophy is touchdowns are going to be volatile throughout the season, and to get the guys who have volume with the opportunity to score touchdowns is the way to approach it. This way you’re competitive even on weeks when the touchdowns aren’t there.

Total points scored- 123.74

• QB Matthew Stafford, LAR, $7,300- 13.24
• RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,500- 13.9
• RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, $7,600- 10.5
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $8,700- 24.3
• WR Michael Thomas, NO, $5,900- 7.0
• WR Michael Pittman Jr/a>, IND, $6,500- 15.4
• TE Evan Engram, JAC, $5,500- 7.6
• Flex RB Travis Etienne, JAC, $7,700- 21.8
• TD Chicago Bears, $3,200- 10.0

What went right:

• Cooper Kupp was a free square last week, and the fact that he was only 60-70% rostered shows that in cash games there still is an edge against some of the more casual players. At $8,700 he should have been nearly 100% rostered
• Travis Etienne ended up being the difference maker this past week as he was the guy who had a big game who was only about 40% rostered in most 50/50’s. Etienne from a yardage standpoint wasn’t great as he had just 55 yards on 18 carries, but did find the end zone twice, as he was the only running back to score a touchdown for the roster this week.
• The team defense plays continue to pay off, as getting 10 points from the Bears as one of the cheapest defenses on this slate was helpful.

What went wrong:

• Matthew Stafford had a down week in what turned out to be a strange game, as the Rams ran just 22 plays in the first half as the Cardinals, and then the Rams went run-heavy in the second half as they only ran 52 total plays last week throwing just 24 times.
• Bijan Robinson struggled, and it’s likely time to come off him for a little bit. This was the second time that we’ve used him in the roster as we rostered him back in Week 1, but he’s been highly ranked the past few weeks. He’s in a true timeshare spot with Tyler Allgeier, and Allgeier is getting the goal line work.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

Week 7 is a weird one, as there are a lot of uncertain situations that exist with some key players. The Sunday Morning Update could change a lot this week based on some of these injuries.

• The Rams backfield is a mess. They’ll be without their top two running backs this week as the team is without both Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. The problem is that the team has a backfield that is now crowded with guys as Zach Evans, Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson, and Myles Gaskin are all vying for carries. It seems likely that Henderson, who has started for the team earlier this season, and Zach Evans would be most likely to get the carries, but it’s such an unknown that it is probably just a stay-away unless you want to take a chance in a GPP.
• DK Metcalf is a game-time decision with a hip injury. This is a tough one if he misses, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will become one of the best plays on this slate.
• Deshaun Watson is questionable with his shoulder injury. He was a full participant on Friday, which should indicate that he will play this week. If he plays, Amari Cooper becomes somewhat interesting in GPP’s or Cash Plus-type contests, while the Colts defense becomes somewhat interesting if Watson is out, although the Browns will likely take a more run-heavy approach which could benefit Jerome Ford.
• Roschon Johnson has been ruled out with a concussion that he suffered almost 2.5 weeks ago at this point. D’Onta Foreman will get the start while Darrynton Evans likely will see some playing time as we saw them split the backfield last week. Foreman looked more than competent as he had 15 carries for 63 yards last week, and at just $6,300 could be a nice value play in Week 7.
• David Montgomery will miss this week with a rib injury, while Craig Reynolds is banged up with a hamstring and toe injury that could limit him. Jahmyr Gibbs should be the highest rostered player on this slate at just $6,200 the price is crazy. The matchup is difficult against Baltimore, but Gibbs as the primary guy in this backfield is still worth the $6,200 price this week.
• Justin Fields will miss this week with a thumb injury. Tyson Bagent will get the start. Bagent looked fine in relief of Fields completing 10/14 passes last week. D.J. Moore should still be a fine play, although his price has not come down enough for cash games this week at $7,500.
• Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this week with a back injury. Brian Hoyer will get the start which should not impact the Raiders all that much this week. Davante Adams has come out and vocally complained about not being involved in the game plan, so we will see if the Raiders take a more proactive approach after Adams had just 5 targets last week. Michael Mayer at tight end was a breakout player last week as the rookie tight end had 5 receptions for 75 yards.

Week 7 Thoughts:

This is a weird week. There are 6 teams on a bye, only two teams are projected to score over 25 points, and we are missing many of the high-powered players such as Christian McCaffrey, Justin Jefferson, Miami, and Philadelphia. What this does, is it pushes some of the elite options up in price which is why we see Cooper Kupp at $9,700 and Kenneth Walker at $8,800. It also limits the amount of value plays, as the smaller the slate it pushes up some of those lower end players in salary. So a player on a normal slate who may be $6,100 is now $6,600 for example, because they need to keep the average player value in a certain range.

So, this is a week where you are going to have to take some stands on players. The first question you should ask yourself is whether you are going to play Cooper Kupp or whether you are going to go with a lineup that is centered around Travis Kelce. Kupp has more upside than Kelce, but what you get from Kelce could be massive against some of the bottom tier cheap tight ends. Then there are a number of wide receivers that are all very similar, making this a tricky week that ultimately gives you less confidence than we’ve had in past weeks.