Thursday Showdown Week 8

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Baltimore Ravens are heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers as 1.5-point favorites. The game total is set at 45. We have a unique situation where the field will be heavily invested in the underdog, which should allow us to play the favored Baltimore Ravens at lower-than-normal roster percentages. The issue here is that we have far less viable stacking options to pair with Lamar Jackson, who is priced at his ceiling. We’ll need to get creative with our roster construction to make up for the chalky nature of our Ravens stacks. Tampa Bay put up just three points last week, yet optimizers are going to project them just like any old Tom Brady offense. We’ll be in a great spot stacking Jackson if the Buccaneers struggle once again.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Mark Andrews – Knee – DNP
• Gus Edwards – Knee – LP
• Rashod Bateman – Foot – LP
• Russell Gage – Hamstring – Out
• Julio Jones – Knee – GTD

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Chris Godwin
3. Leonard Fournette
4. Mark Andrews

BALTIMORE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Lamar Jackson $11,800 – Captain or Flex

Lamar Jackson has been in a bit of a lull as of late after starting the season looking like an MVP candidate once again. He’s scored less than two touchdowns each of the last four weeks. He’s also passed for over 200 yards just once in that span. The important piece to this puzzle is that his rushing has remained consistent. He’s averaged 10 rushing attempts per game over the past four games, which keeps him firmly in contention for the 100-yard-bonus. Aside from last week’s outlier of just 16 passes, Jackson is averaging a respectable 30 attempts a game to tack on with his rushing upside. With Jackson sitting at an elevated price tag after four weeks of relatively mediocre production, we’re in a great position to play him at a lower roster percentage than we’ll see all year.

RUNNING BACK

Gus Edwards $7,600 – Flex

In Gus Edward’s first game of the season, he split the backfield touches evenly three ways. In that time, he did handle most of the touches. He carried the ball 16 times, scoring two touchdowns but was not targeted. He reached his absolute ceiling in terms of usage and is unlikely to score two touchdowns again. Edwards’ price is reasonable, and his snap share may increase a touch, but he does not correlate well with Jackson and is not a priority in Ravens stacks.

Kenyan Drake $4,600 – Flex

Kenyan Drake finished week six with 119 yards on 10 rushes to go along with 2 targets. Last week he came crashing back to earth with just five yards on 11 carries. He’s in a grey area where he’s getting work, but he is not getting goal-line touches, and he’s not getting targeted, so we’re really begging him to make something special happen if we’re playing him. Anyone receiving 12 opportunities is in play at $4,600, but I’d prefer to go with either team’s kicker or defense.

RECEIVER

Mark Andrews $9,200 - Captain or Flex

Mark Andrews was targeted twice in week seven and put up a goose egg in the box scores. When asked about Andrews’ concerning usage after the game, Jackson explained that the Browns had schemed to take Andrews away. It seems odd that the focal point of their offense could be so easily removed, but at least Andrews graced us with a sweet pitch to Jackson from under center. Nonetheless, Andrews is still the 13th most targeted player in the NFL and is best paired with Jackson in Ravens stacks.

Rashod Bateman $7,000 – Flex

Rashod Bateman returned to action after two missed games and turned five targets into four receptions for 42 yards. He missed the first two practices of the week but should be good to go for Thursday. His $7,000 salary is a bit rich for a player averaging just five targets, but we’ve seen Bateman hit the 100-yard-bonus with a touchdown this year. Bateman is a talented receiver with a reasonable ceiling now two weeks removed from injury. His price tag makes him a poor point-per-dollar play so he should go largely overlooked by the field.

Devin Duvernay $6,400 – Flex

Devin Duvernay has performed admirably in Bateman’s absence. The Ravens are asking him to do far more than I’m sure he expected heading into the year. We’re used to playing Duvernay in the $3,000 range and hoping for a gimmicky touchdown near the goal line. This season we’ve got a true second wide receiver averaging four targets a game. With Bateman at just $600 more, I’ll lean in his direction, but I’m not out on playing Duvernay and Bateman with Jackson for a unique lineup.

Demarcus Robinson $2,800 – Flex

Demarcus Robinson was an exciting signing for the Ravens, who seemed like the perfect fit for him. His production hasn’t quite panned out, but he’s been targeted a reasonable amount, given his cost. Robinson is liable to get you a zero in-the-box score, but he also has five-target upside at less than $3,000.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Justice Hill $2,400 – Flex

Justice Hill is playing the same number of snaps as the other two backs, but he’s getting half the opportunities. Still, at such a low salary, we’re happy with five rushes. Hill is a quality option if you want a piece of the Ravens' rushing attack without paying up for it.

Isaiah Likely $1,600 – Flex

After being crowned pre-season king and single-handedly winning people money (including myself), Isaiah Likely has been largely average. Considering his draft capital, he’s overachieved, but try telling that to the Dynasty community. Even so, at $1,600, Likely is the best punt on the slate, with a chance to see upwards of four targets.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady $10,000 – Flex

Tom Brady has passed at the third-highest rate in the league. At 45 years old, he is remarkably leading the NFL in intended air yards, which includes Mike Evans's egregious drop last week. A few years ago, we may have gotten a nice dip in roster percentage for Tampa Bay stacks after they produced just three points in a shocking performance against the Panthers, but in 2022 that’s unlikely. Expect the field to see the $1,800 salary difference between Brady and Jackson and lean into Buccaneer-heavy builds while projecting their offense as if there’s nothing wrong with the team. Brady is a perfectly viable Captain on most slates, but I expect him to be rostered as if he carries no risk, and am choosing to pivot to Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette instead.

RUNNING BACK

Leonard Fournette $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Leonard Fournette’s usage has been all over the map. He’s had three games with over 20 carries and four games with less than 15 carries. He’s had no games in between. The same can be said about his passing game usage, as he has a range between 2 and 11 targets to work with. Fortunately, my job is to write up the slate and not project the players. His snap share seems to be largely dependent on game-script, with Rachaad White playing more often when they’re behind over the past four games. With a spread of just 1.5 points at home, Fournette should be closer to 70% of the snaps making him one of the strongest plays on the slate.

Rachaad White $4,800 – Flex

Rachaad White is carving himself a legitimate role in the Tampa Bay offense. He’s played roughly 40% of the snaps in three of the last four games. He’s received eight opportunities in each of the past two games, whether he played 20% or 40% of the snaps. White is the preferred option at running back in the $4,000 range if looking outside of the kickers and defenses.

RECEIVER

Mike Evans $11,000 – Flex

Mike Evans was targeted a whopping 15 times in last week’s loss to the Panthers, which included a wide-open dropped touchdown that would’ve heavily padded the box score. Evans is a fine play from a raw projection standpoint, but he is far too expensive relative to his teammates. We project both Brady and Fournette ahead of him, with Chris Godwin just behind him. All three options are at least $1,000 cheaper than Evans, and he’ll still be rostered at a high rate. Evans is worth keeping in the player pool due to his upside, but Fournette and Godwin are both better options for Captain consideration at cost.

Chris Godwin $9,000 – Captain or Flex

Chris Godwin is averaging 8.8 targets per game to Evans’ 8. He’s caught at least six passes in each game since his return in week four. He’s one of the safest projections of the slate and is due for positive regression as he is highly unlikely to carry a 50% catch rate throughout the season. If he connects on a larger percentage of his 10+ targets this week, he’s a threat for the 100-yard-bonus.

Cade Otton $5,000 – Flex

Cade Otton has been a pleasant surprise since Cameron Brate was lost to injury, but Draftkings has rained on our parade a bit with his price. He’s got an 11% market share over the past three weeks, which rivals Gage who will miss this game. WIth Gage out, and White getting his roster percentage steamed up, Otton becomes the strongest value play for Tampa Bay.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Scott Miller $3,200 – Flex

Scott Miller was far too expensive given his role, but with Gage out he should see somewhere around four targets which makes his salary reasonable. I still prefer both kickers and defenses if I can afford them.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here.