Thursday Showdown Week 7

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New Orleans Saints are heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals as 1.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 44.5. The Saints are riddled with injuries all over the offense and have yet to name a starting Quarterback as of Wednesday night. We will be operating under the assumption that Andy Dalton draws the start, but it matters little. The Cardinals are facing injury concerns of their own as Marquise Brown will miss at least a month. Fortunately, DeAndre Hopkins is making his return in addition to Robbie Anderson making his first appearance as a Cardinal. The Saints' offense is going to flow through just two players: Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. The Cardinals' side of the ball is where we will get the most unique. We’ll be looking to stack Kyler Murray as uniquely as possible.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Michael Thomas – Foot – Out
• Jarvis Landry – Ankle – Out
• Adam Trautman – Ankle – Out
• Keith Kirkwood – Ankle – DNP
• Mark Ingram – Knee – Limited
• Jameis Winston – Back/Ankle – Limited
• Andy Dalton – Back – Limited
• Darrel Williams – Knee – DNP
• Matt Prater – Hip – DNP
• Eno Benjamin – Foot – Limited
• James Conner – Ribs - DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Kyler Murray
2. Alvin Kamara
3. Chris Olave
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Eno Benjamin

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Andy Dalton $9,400 – Flex

Andy Dalton appears to be the least injured between he and Jamies Winston, so he is likely drawing the start. In three games, he’s averaged 28 attempts and thrown for more than 200 yards just once. He’s giving up a ton of work to Taysom Hill on crucial downs, so his touchdown upside is limited. Dalton fits well in lineups, including Chris Olave at Captain but is not a priority otherwise.

RUNNING BACK

Alvin Kamara $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Alvin Kamara has been battling injury through most of the year but appears to be getting healthy at the perfect time. In his past three starts, he’s averaged 19 carries and just over seven targets. Though he has yet to have one of his truly iconic performances, he’s beginning to look the Kamara of old. With Dalton playing injured, expect to see more of the Kamara wild-cat package, leading to more Redzone opportunities. Kamara is the second-strongest play of the slate.

Mark Ingram $5,200 – Flex

In games where Kamara is active, Mark Ingram is playing roughly 30% of the snaps. This puts him firmly in the Alexander Mattison and Samaje Perine tier of plays, though he will likely carry a higher roster percentage. He’s rushed 28 times in the past three weeks, resulting in just 92 yards, while being targeted just five times. Ingram is always a threat to fall into the Endzone, but both Kickers are stronger plays at cheaper salaries and similar roster percentages.

RECEIVER

Chris Olave $7,400 - Captain or Flex

Chris Olave’s price is broken when considering his ceiling. In his two fully healthy games, he was targeted 13 times. One of which resulted in a nine-catch, 147-yard performance. This week the Saints will be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Olave will see a target share upwards of 25% at under $8,000. He’s the strongest value of the slate.

Taysom Hill $7,200 – Flex

Considering Taysom Hill has received exactly one target this year, it’s comical to be writing him up as a tight end, but here we are. Hill is averaging four carries a game, resulting in a ridiculous 19% touchdown rate. His price at $7,200 is far too high given his usage, but no one wants to be drawing dead in the first half due to two Hill rushing touchdowns. Hill is an objectively bad play, but sometimes Showdown doesn’t make sense. He’s still making the player pool due to his massive touchdown upside.

TreQuan Smith $6,200 – Flex

Tre’Quan Smith was one of the only shows in town last week, playing 71% of the snaps with Olave, Landry, and Thomas out. He was targeted three times resulting in three catches and a touchdown. He will play similar snaps this week even with Olave back. Smith is too expensive relative to his projection but will carry a roster percentage low enough to warrant tournament consideration.

Marquez Callaway $4,800 – Flex

Marquez Callaway was the only other option outside of Smith last week, playing on 75% of the snaps. He was targeted seven times. If taking a shot on a Saints wide receiver outside of Olave, Callaway is the preferred option. His price puts him in the same range as the kickers and defenses, which will keep his roster percentage low.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Juwan Johnson $3,000 – Flex

Adam Trautman has already been ruled out, and Hill plays tight end approximately never, so Juwan Johnson is the only true tight end available. His price tag makes him an interesting target, as he was one of the air-yards kings to start the year. He’s the best punt play of the game and fits perfectly in Cardinals onslaughts.

ARIZONA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kyler Murray $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Kyler Murray has expressed interest in rushing more often, and we share in his desire. Last week he came in clutch, hitting the rushing bonus with 100 yards on ten attempts. He’s attempted at least 30 passes in each game this season, but they aren’t resulting in points. The Cardinals have been one of the worst first-half scoring offenses in NFL history. Fortunately, Murray is getting his favorite red zone target back this week. Murray loses Marquise Brown, but he gains Hopkins and Anderson. He has all the ammunition he needs to turn his offense around and finish as the optimal Captain.

RUNNING BACK

Eno Benjamin $8,200 – Captain or Flex

James Conner and Darrell Williams should be out another week, resulting in another lead role for Eno Benjamin. His box score production was lacking but he handled 18 total touches. Given his elevated price tag and lackluster performance last week, we should get a workhorse running back at a modest roster percentage.

RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins $10,200 – Captain or Flex

DeAndre Hopkins is back from suspension and fully healthy for the first time since early last season. He is Murray’s favorite target and immediately steps in as the primary receiver with Brown sidelined. Hopkins has the opportunity to see 30% of the targets in a pass-happy offense. He’s a great play regardless of roster percentage.

Rondale Moore $5,800 – Flex

Rondale Moore has seen his targets increase each week as he’s finally being used more as a true receiver. Last week he turned his ten targets into just six catches for 49 yards. He may be becoming a high-volume player, but he is still going to have a low average depth of target. We’re going to need the Cardinals to get more creative with his utilization. For now, he provides salary relief for our Cardinals' heavy stacks.

Robbie Anderson $5,600 – Flex

Robbie Anderson is unlikely to play a full snap share in his first week with the Cardinals. Especially given that the game is being played on Thursday. At $5,600, it is unlikely Anderson produces enough points to land in optimal lineups. His role will be like what we’ve seen with Mecole Hardman, which keeps him in the player pool for large field tournaments.

Zach Ertz $7,000 – Flex

Zach Ertz is essentially the same play as Moore this week but for $1,200 more. In true Showdown fashion, this makes him a strong play, given his lower roster percentage. Ertz has been targeted ten or more times in four of six games this season but this is likely to drop with the return of Hopkins. Ertz is the second-best option to pair with Murray.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

A.J. Green $2,600 – Flex

We may have forgotten about A.J. Green but the Cardinals have not. He’s averaging over three targets a game with a 70% snap share. I prefer Green straight up versus Anderson but am happy to take the $3,000 discount.

Keaontay Ingram $400 – Flex

Keaontay Ingram played just 13% of the snaps last week, while Benjamin assumed the workhorse role. Benjamin is battling injury and could cede a few more touches to Ingram. With Conner and Williams out, Ingram is worth considering.