Thursday Showdown Week 6

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Washington Commanders are heading to Chicago to take on the Bears as 1-point underdogs. The game total is set at 38, which is likely not low enough. The Bears are averaging 17.6 pass attempts per game, which is 7 attempts less than the next-worst team. They’re rushing at the league’s 5^th highest rate. Washington ranks third in pass attempts, and they should have predictable target distribution due to injuries. While it would typically be advised to pivot to the low-rostered Bears offense, it is very unlikely we get burned by the Chicago passing attack. Fields remains viable due to his rushing upside but pairing him with multiple pass-catchers is a risky proposition. The main focus should be on stacking Washington and leaving chunks of salary on the table.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Carson Wentz – Shoulder – Limited
• Logan Thomas – Calf – DNP
• Dyami Brown – Groin – Limited
• Jahan Dotson – Hamstring – DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Curtis Samuel
2. David Montgomery
3. Carson Wentz
4. Justin Fields
5. Terry McLaurin

WASHINGTON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Carson Wentz $10,600 – Captain or Flex

The Carson Wentz experience has been tragic for Commanders fans, but anyone who drafted him in fantasy is thrilled. He’s reached the 300-yard-bonus with multiple touchdowns three times through five weeks. He is fifth in the league in passing yards and second in attempts. This week Wentz is set up well as a slight underdog against a run-heavy team. His team total may be low, but in low-scoring affairs, it does not take much for the quarterback to find his way into the optimal lineup. Wentz is the strongest play of the slate, however unfortunate that may be for viewers.

RUNNING BACK

Antonio Gibson $8,600 – Flex

The Washington backfield is a nightmare to project after Brian Robinson Jr’s triumphant return from a horrific injury. Antonio Gibson managed to hold a slight edge in snaps last week, but he carried the ball just three times to Robinson’s nine. Gibson was also targeted four times to JD McKissic’s seven. Gibson falls into running back purgatory, where he is essentially a change of pace back for either the rushing or receiving role in the offense. With Robinson’s role expected to grow, Gibson is too expensive to make the player pool.

Brian Robinson Jr $6,600 – Flex

Brian Robinson Jr rushed nine times for 22 yards on 29% of the snaps in his return to action. He was expected to be announced as the Commanders’ starting running back the same day he suffered two gunshot wounds. After a week to get acclimated it is likely Robinson resumes his career trajectory as the lead back in a three-headed backfield. Robinson is a strong play with his $6,200 salary being just enough to keep his roster percentage reasonable.

J.D. McKissic $6,400 – Flex

While there is much ambiguity surrounding the Commander’s top rushing options, JD McKissic’s role has remained steady. He is averaging six targets per game but has topped 50 yards just once. McKissic is the perfect pivot off the Washington run game. If the Commanders find themselves trailing, his opportunity share gets a boost. If he finds the endzone on his normal usage, he will almost assuredly be in the optimal lineup in such a low-scoring affair.

RECEIVER

Terry McLaurin $9,000 - Captain or Flex

By all accounts, Terry McLaurin has been a disappointment relative to his projection. He’s averaged less than four receptions per game. He is currently ranked 14^th in air yards and has averaged nearly seven targets per game, but he and Wentz aren’t connecting. At $9,000, he is a risk, especially given that Curtis Samuel is a stronger play at a lower salary. The hope is for ceiling performance out of McLaurin with a low roster percentage due to the safer, less expensive options.

Curtis Samuel $8,200 – Captain or Flex

Curtis Samuel has put all negative speculation regarding his huge 2021 contract to bed. Through five weeks, he is tied for 5^th in receptions. He’s averaging nine targets per game. This production should come as no surprise, as it is what we expected of him last year before he spent the season rehabbing various injuries. His touches regularly scheme as he is the focal point of their offense. Samuel is too cheap given his workload so he will come with a high-roster percentage, but he is the best option to pair with Wentz.

Dyami Brown $5,000 – Flex

Dyami Brown received a price hike after catching his first two touchdown passes of his career last week. With Jahan Dotson out, he should be involved once again, but he is nursing an injury of his own. If he is active, his two catches for 105 yards and two touchdowns should keep his roster percentage elevated. He played just 32% of the snaps in Dotson’s absence and can be avoided at this price.

Logan Thomas $2,200 – Flex

Logan Thomas being priced at $2,200 with John Bates at $3,000 tells me he is not likely to play for a second consecutive week. He was a game-time decision Sunday before ultimately sitting and will probably sit again on a short week. If he is active, he will be a decent low-rostered option with touchdown upside to pair with Wentz.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Cam Sims $1,400 – Flex

Dyami Brown took all the glory but it was Cam Sims who played 59% of the snaps with Jahan Dotson out. If Brown misses the game, Sims will be the strongest punt option. If Brown is active, Sims is still a strong pivot.

John Bates $3,000 – Flex

John Bates is too expensive to warrant consideration if Logan Thomas is active. If Thomas is inactive, Bates makes an interesting play as he isn’t quite cheap enough to be considered a “free-square”. Expect the field to overlook him either way, which allows him to make our player pool if Thomas is out.

CHICAGO OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Fields $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Justin Fields has been the worst passer in the league by most metrics, with some back-ups leapfrogging him in counting stats. While the passing production has been worrisome, he’s helping his cause in fantasy by averaging just over eight carries a game. With such a low game total, he only needs a long touchdown and a handful of rushes to find himself in the optimal lineup. He’s best paired with a single passing option and can be played with the Commanders’ defense as he has thrown four inceptions and fumbled six times.

RUNNING BACK

David Montgomery $10,400 – Captain or Flex

While the Bears' offense has done no favors for Fields, it sets up well for David Montgomery. In his three healthy games, he’s averaged nearly 15 touches a game. His price is high relative to most slates, but given this projected game environment, his 15 touches may be a requirement. Montgomery will be the focal point of the Bears' offense, and he can be played as the lone Bear in a Commanders-heavy build, even at Captain.

Khalil Herbert $6,200 – Flex

Khalil Herbert is playing on around 30% of the snaps in weeks when Montgomery is healthy. Like Alexander Mattison and Samaje Perine, Herbert is always priced higher than his role warrants. He likely only makes the optimal lineup if Montgomery is injured or if he vultures a touchdown. He makes the player pool only in large field tournaments.

RECEIVER

Darnell Mooney $7,600 - Flex

Darnell Mooney may be the most frustrating player in all of fantasy as his talent is evident, but the opportunity is barely-existent. After a disappointing first two weeks, Mooney’s targets have picked up slightly. He is still averaging about half as many targets as a player of his caliber deserves. He is a strong upside play at a reasonable roster percentage with the understanding that he has a stone-cold zero in his range of outcomes.

Cole Kmet $5,200 – Flex

Cole Kmet’s usage has picked up in recent weeks. He’s one of the better pairings with Fields as he should be the primary red zone target, but the Bears make it to that part of the field so rarely it is difficult to say for certain. He’s seen ten targets over the last three weeks on 90% of the snaps and should keep that pace going forward.

Equanimeous St. Brown $4,800 – Flex

Equanimeous St. Brown is perhaps the most expensive punt play we’ll see this season. He’s splitting the second wide receiver duties in half with Dante Pettis and has no noticeable difference to justify the cost. Pettis is a much better play, given his $3,000 discount.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Velus Jones $2,600 – Flex

Velus Jones’ projection is purely speculation but he was a second-round pick this year and showed promise in the preseason. He caught a nine-yard touchdown pass last week but played just three snaps. Expect his snap share to grow as he works into a role similar to that of Skyy Moore.

Dante Pettis $1,800 – Flex

Dante Pettis is the perfect deep threat to pair with Fields. He has not caught a pass since week one, but he is getting targeted. If Fields can get the ground game going and connect with Pettis deep, they would both find themselves in the optimal lineup.