Thursday Showdown Week 2

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.

GAME THEORY

The Los Angeles Chargers are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 54.5, with room to climb before kickoff. These are the games we live for as Showdown connoisseurs. With both teams having a realistic shot at 50-point team totals, there is volatility in how they get there. For tournaments, throw median projections out the window and focus more on projected roster percentage. The field will dictate our direction, as margins for success will be razor-thin. If by Thursday night it feels like the world has the warm-and-fuzzies for Chiefs stacks, then it will be a great slate for Chargers onslaughts and vice versa.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Keenan Allen – Hamstring – Not likely to play
• Donald Parham – Hamstring – Not likely to play
• Justin Watson – Chest – Likely to play
• JuJu Smith-Schuster – Shoulder – Likely to play

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Patrick Mahomes II
2. Austin Ekeler
3. Justin Herbert
4. Travis Kelce
5. Mike Williams

CHARGERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert $11,200 – Captain or Flex

There are not many data points to separate Justin Herbert from Patrick Mahomes II. The only real difference is that Mahomes is home and Herbert is not. Giving a slight lean in roster percentage to the Chiefs means that the Chargers will give us better leverage. The Chargers also have better value options as they will be without Keenan Allen and Donald Parham. Fading either of these teams is terrifying. But we can at least justify stacking the Chargers as it allows us to cram in more quality mid-range options. Herbert’s willingness to spread the ball around paired with a high team total is what we love in Showdown.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Austin Ekeler got off to a slow start in Week 1 after spending all offseason promising fantasy managers he was worth the top overall pick. The main concern with Ekeler was his usage, as he logged less than a 50% snap share. His targets were also down as he recorded only four receptions. On a positive note, the rest of the running back snaps were split evenly between Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel, neither of whom made good on their opportunities. Ekeler should see more work this week as the Chargers battle to keep pace with the Chiefs. Ekeler can rival the ceiling of Herbert and Mahomes but is less expensive and carries a lower roster percentage.

RECEIVER

Mike Williams $9,000 - Captain or Flex

Mike Williams is too expensive relative to his Week 1 production but too cheap compared to his seasonal projection. He was targeted only four times with a 93% snap share. Allen is expected to be out with a hamstring injury, so Williams will function as Herbert’s top target. He projects similarly to JuJu Smith-Schuster and is $1,000 more expensive, so his roster percentage should be reasonable even with his role increase. He fits well in Chargers stacks, especially in lineups excluding Ekeler.

Josh Palmer $5,000 – Flex

Joshua Palmer was given the same amount of opportunity as Williams in Week 1. When Herbert was asked which Chargers receiver was going to break out this year, Palmer was his immediate response. One could argue he could have given us a heads up about DeAndre Carter, but I digress. Palmer steps into Williams’ role as Herbert’s number two receiver and should see similar opportunity to what he saw last week. He pairs well with Herbert, especially in lineups omitting Williams as Palmer could see the same number of targets at $4,000 less.

DeAndre Carter $4,600 – Flex

DeAndre Carter is one of the most puzzling pieces of this slate. Williams, Palmer, and Carter each saw four targets, but it was Carter who made the most of his opportunities with 64 yards and a touchdown. Palmer was the clear third option over Carter, but this week Carter will see the same snap share as Palmer last week. Palmer would be the better play over Carter if roster percentages were equal. Perhaps box score watchers will see last week’s production and play Carter, but I’d argue there are very few box score watchers in the Showdown lobby. I expect Carter to carry the lowest roster percentage amongst Herbert’s top three receivers, and he provides great leverage in large field tournaments.

Gerald Everett $4,800 – Flex

Gerald Everett continues the trend of Chargers receivers who saw four targets. Donald Parham is expected to be out of the lineup for a second straight week, leaving Everett to play roughly 60% of the snaps once again. His route participation was promising, and his red zone target resulted in an impressive touchdown. His roster percentage should fall somewhere between Palmer and Carter, which makes him a strong play.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Tre McKitty $400 – Flex

At this point, it must feel like I’m joking, but we are on the sixth Chargers pass catcher to see four targets in Week 1. McKitty was used as more of a blocker, but his snap share was identical to Everett’s and resulted in the same number of opportunities. McKitty is my favorite punt play of the slate.

Jalen Guyton $200 – Flex

All offseason Jaylen Guyton was expected to be the clear fourth option, even at times being considered for the number three role. In Week 1, Carter was a huge surprise. Even more surprising was Guyton’s lowly 7% snap share. In large field tournaments, Guyton provides the opportunity to embrace the variance of a one-week sample size and hope he gets somewhere north of 25% of the snaps with Allen out. Guyton is a deep threat who only needs one long catch to make value on his minimum price tag.

CHIEFS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II $11,800 - Captain or Flex

Patrick Mahomes II was the number one overall quarterback in fantasy without playing the full game in Week 1. In a perfect world, the Chiefs would be the preferred stacking option on this slate, but Showdown is far from perfect. Mahomes carries the strongest projection on the slate but requires slightly more volatile lineup construction than Herbert.

RUNNING BACK

Clyde Edwards-Helaire $8,600 – Flex

Edwards-Helaire was a top 5 running back in Week 1 despite only seeing 10 touches. His production was exciting, but his opportunity was not promising. He saw the same snap share as Jerick McKinnon. Edwards-Helaire’s price tag is simply too high compared to other options in his range.

Jerick McKinnon $2,600 – Flex

Jerick McKinnon saw only four fewer opportunities than Edwards-Helaire in Week 1. At a whopping $6,000 less than Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon is the glue that holds Chiefs stacks together. Even in Chargers onslaughts, McKinnon can be the lone Chief bring-back. McKinnon is the strongest play of the slate as his salary makes him so versatile. He fits well by himself, paired with Mahomes plus four Chargers, or in Chiefs onslaughts.

RECEIVER

Travis Kelce $11,000 – Captain or Flex

Travis Kelce is the other position player who can rival the ceilings of Hebert and Mahomes. As great as Kelce is, he is only $200 less than Herbert. Given their respective range of outcomes, it makes more sense to stack Herbert over playing Kelce knowing you’d want to pay up for Mahomes as well. After stacking Kelce and Mahomes, the remaining Chiefs' options simply do not project as well as their Chargers counterparts. This is where the volatility is introduced when stacking the Chiefs. Kelce is a great play but will require some creativity to make the salary fit in a sound lineup.

JuJu Smith-Schuster $8,000 - Flex

JuJu Smith-Schuster fit in perfectly in his debut with the chiefs. His snap share was lower than we’d like at just 66%, but he was the highest volume wide receiver. Had he not fumbled twice, his day was likely to look much better. He projects similarly to Williams at $1,000 cheaper, but he is still $3,000 more expensive than Palmer, who will see the field more often for the Chargers. Smith-Schuster, on his own, makes a fine play, but his price makes him hard to fit in Chiefs stacks.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $6,400 – Flex

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a far more palatable price tag than Smith-Schuster and played roughly 10% more snaps last week. While Valdes-Scantling was targeted only half as often as Smith-Schuster, he is the type of receiver to do more with less because of his average depth of target. Valdes-Scantling has a wider range of outcomes than Smith-Schuster, but the $1,600 price discount makes him fit better in Chiefs stacks.

Mecole Hardman $5,600 – Flex

If you were a fan of this article last season, you will remember the regular countdown of Hardman’s snaps until he was sitting behind Josh Gordon at 19%. He starts the year at 56% with the only difference being that he scored a touchdown. He turned his 3 catches into just 16 yards with a lackluster 2.67 yards per target. Hardman is not viable as he is priced too closely to the popular value play in Palmer and the contrarian option in Carter.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Isiah Pacheco $4,400 – Flex

Not often will this segment feature a player priced at $4,400. Isiah Pacheco will not be in my player pool no matter the field size, but given the communities infatuation with him, he is worth mentioning. Pacheco’s 23% snap share was largely due to his usage with the backups after the Cardinals game had gotten out of hand. Because of his touchdown, DraftKings priced him as a legitimate role player. Even if Pacheco were slated for 23% of the snaps, he wouldn’t be viable over McKinnon.

Skyy Moore $1,800 – Flex

Skyy Moore was targeted once in Week 1, but his role will expand throughout the season. Look for Moore to pass Justin Watson in snaps this week, and if history is to repeat itself, Moore will leapfrog Hardman in no time.