OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins as 7.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 45.5. The Dolphins have fallen off dramatically since losing Tua Tagovailoa to various injuries. I’m choosing to approach this game similarly to their first three games in hopes that Tagovailoa picks up right where he left off. The Steelers are getting Kenny Pickett back after a one-game absence though it has not mattered much. In Pickett’s first start he did pass 52 times, but it was in a blowout against the best offense in the NFL (Buffalo Bills). If we expect the Dolphins to rack up the points, then Pickett can be expected to pass more. I doubt the field learned its lesson with Andy Dalton on Thursday night, so Pickett will be rostered less than he should be. Heavily stacking the Steelers I a stretch but we can get unique by pairing Pickett with one of his pass-catchers.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Jaylen Waddle – Shoulder – Questionable

Durham Smythe – Hamstring – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jaylen Waddle
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Raheem Mostert
5. Diontae Johnson

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kenny Pickett $9,200 – Flex

Kenny Pickett has played only one full game, and it was a blowout loss to the Bills in which he passed 52 times. The bad news is that we only have a one-game sample size, but the good news is that we’ve got a similar game environment to his first start. Pickett will likely pass an egregious amount while remaining largely inefficient. He projects eerily similar to Andy Dalton on Thursday night where Dalton was far less rostered than any Quarterback should be. I’d like to think we all learned from our mistakes, but that’s doubtful. Pickett will still be underutilized in a game where he will be forced to pass, and he’s got rushing upside to make us feel a bit better.

RUNNING BACK

Najee Harris $8,200 – Flex

Najee Harris has been largely disappointing to start the season. He dealt with a Lisfranc injury throughout the offseason and into the early part of the year, but he claims to be healthy now. He shouldn’t have admitted to being in better health because now we don’t have a great reason to fault for his failings. Of course, the line isn’t great, and the offense is struggling to score, but Harris is supposed to be a +EV back. At $8,200 in a game where the Steelers are expected to be playing catch up, Harris’ salary feels like one we can avoid.

Receiver

Diontae Johnson $8,000 – Captain or Flex

Part of the reason I’m so comfortable avoiding Harris is because Diontae Johnson is $200 less and fits the game environment much better. I don’t feel comfortable playing two expensive options for the Steelers unless it’s Johnson paired with Pickett, so Harris is out, and Johnson barely squeaks into Captain consideration.

Chase Claypool $6,600 – Flex

Chase Claypool is expected to be traded any day now. That makes for a tough decision for us as we don’t know if they limit him to avoid injury or showcase him to increase trade value. I’m going to defer to our projections here and say he’s a fine play at cost, but he doesn’t feel necessary. He and George Pickens are playing the same percentage of snaps, and cost about the same. I’ll be playing Pickens over Claypool as he’s far less volatile and carries the same upside.

George Pickens $6,400 – Flex

George Pickens has had at least six targets in each game since week three. His worst-case scenario is six targets once again, but if Claypool is limited due to trade speculation, we could see a breakout performance for Pickens. He’s slightly too expensive given his projection, so his roster percentage should remain low. Pickens is my favorite Steeler to stack with Pickett outside of Johnson.

Pat Freiermuth $5,000 – Flex

Pat Freiermuth missed last week due to injury and only played 49% of the snaps in week five. When healthy he has averaged 7.5 targets per game. He was out with a concussion so we shouldn’t see any physical limitations in his return. Freiermuth is the safest Steeler to stack with Pickett but lacks the upside Pickens could provide with a lower roster percentage.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Jaylen Warren $2,800 – Flex

Jaylen Warren reached over 30% of the snaps last week after playing on 51% the week before. We’re used to seeing Harris handle roughly 90% of the snaps, but for whatever reason, they’re dwindling. Warren saw 10 opportunities in week five but only two in week six. He will see the field, but his opportunity share is too volatile to warrant playing him at cost.

MIAMI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $11,000 – Captain or Flex

Tua Tagovailoa has a very small sample size to look at as he was knocked out of two consecutive games, but he’s been fantastic every time he’s seen the field. In game one he had multiple strong connections with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and almost reached the 300-yard-bonus. In game two he erupted for what will likely be the highest offensive explosion we will see on the season. Knowing 469 yards and six touchdowns is in his range of outcomes is enough to feel comfortable stacking the Dolphins, but he’s a 7.5 favorite at home. I’ll be starting every lineup with Tagovailoa either in the Flex or at Captain.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert $7,800 – Captain or Flex

Raheem Mostert has taken over the Dolphins backfield, which comes as no surprise given his San Francisco ties with head Mike McDaniel. He’s carried the ball at least 14 times in each of the past three games. He’s also averaging at least two targets per game. As a 7.5-point favorite, Mostert is in a great position to succeed and should carry a low roster percentage with the field worrying about Chase Edmonds.

Chase Edmonds $6,200 – Flex

Chase Edmonds has yet to settle into a role after Mostert took over as the primary early-down back. He’s played anywhere from 15% to 40% of the snaps over the past three weeks. He’s rushed just 3 times in the past two weeks and caught just 2 passes. Given his recent usage, something would have to dramatically change for him to be worth playing at $6,200.

RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Tyreek Hill has not missed a beat without Tagovailoa in the lineup. He has three games over 160 yards this season, and four games with at least 12 targets. At his current pace, he deserves to be in the Cooper Kupp salary range nearing $13,000. At $11,200 he is far too cheap regardless of roster percentage; especially with a slight bump from Tagovailoa’s return.

Jaylen Waddle $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Jaylen Waddle has found less since losing Tagovailoa, which is evident by the price difference between him and Hill. With Tagovailoa active, there was no clear separation between Waddle and Hill. They we both league leaders in fantasy points, as Waddle was regularly creating splash plays after the catch. Waddle’s ceiling performances have all been overshadowed by Hill, which is a clear indicator that they can be comfortably paired in the same lineup. Waddle has hit the 300-yard-bonus of this year’s games. Waddle is the second-best Captain option from a projections standpoint, but the best when considering cost and roster percentages.

Mike Gesicki $5,200 – Flex

Mike McDaniel really should have to explain himself for Gesicki’s role in this offense. Gesicki is a perfect prototype for a move tight-end, but McDaniel seems to think he’s George Kittle. With Durham Smythe out last week McDaniel was forced to use Gesicki appropriately, and it worked out. Unfortunately for Gesicki, Smythe looks like he’s playing this week so Gesicki is too expensive for his role.

Trent Sherfield $4,600 – Flex

Trent Sherfield has played at least 60% of the snaps in each of the last four weeks and his price has finally caught up. I prefer both defenses and both kickers over Sherfield given his small target share in an offense the Dolphins’ incredibly narrow target tree.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Cedrick Wilson $200 – Flex

Cedrick Wilson has been targeted just seven times on the season and has three games with zero targets. He’s seeing the field, so he’s worth mentioning as a punt, but we don’t have any enticing minimum-priced options.

Durham Smythe $1,200 – Flex

If Durham Smythe is active, he’s the best salary relief on the slate.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here.