Sunday Showdown Week 6

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Dallas Cowboys are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles as 6.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 42. If the Cowboys come out on top they will take over first place in the surprisingly tough NFC East. Dak Prescott is not expected to play, although the front office “is not ruling him out”. Both teams rank top-10 in rushing production with two-headed backfields, although they are used much differently. Cooper Rush has played admirably but has not demonstrated the ability to support multiple ceiling games for his receivers. Jalen Hurts has had monster performances on the ground and through the air. The most important decision we must make is how we think he will get things done this week.

INJURY ROUND-UP

CeeDee Lamb – Hip – Questionable

Dak Prescott – Thumb – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. A.J. Brown
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. DeVonta Smith
5. Miles Sanders
6. Dallas Goedert

DALLAS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Cooper Rush $9,400 – Flex

Through Cooper Rush’s first three weeks he was passing roughly 30 times a game. He threw for just over 200 yards in each game and threw multiple touchdowns just once. Last week we saw his scoring floor when he passed only 16 times in a victory over the Rams. We felt great about Rush when he was coming at a discount, but at full price, he’s not so easy to stomach. He still makes our player pool as a fine flex option in a high-scoring game environment, especially in lineups that include CeeDee Lamb as Captain.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott $8,200 – Flex

Ezekiel Elliott has been one of the most disappointing running backs in fantasy. He’s played on over 60% of the snaps each of the last four weeks and has averaged 19 opportunities over that span. He’s got a top-10 workload yet is running back 37 on the season which is nine spots behind Tony Pollard. While Elliott’s production thus far has been mediocre, he’s got one of the more important pieces to the showdown puzzle, which is opportunity. He’s got five carries from inside the five over the last three weeks. On a single-game slate where Elliott’s roster percentage is likely to be moderate, I don’t mind playing him in the hopes that he falls into the endzone twice.

Tony Pollard $8,000 – Flex

Tony Pollard has been the more productive member of the backfield on fewer touches. In the past, Pollard always came at a discount and lower roster percentage. Both DraftKings and the field have caught up. Despite a price hike, Pollard was rostered more often than Elliott the last time the Cowboys were in prime time. Most of Pollard’s appeal came through the receiving game, but he has caught only seven passes on the year. He’s more productive on a per-touch base but is receiving far fewer opportunities than Elliott. There’s no doubt Pollard offers the higher ceiling, but I’m fine playing whichever back is projected for a lower roster percentage.

Receiver

CeeDee Lamb $9,800 – Captain or Flex

CeeDee Lamb is questionable with the same injury he sustained last week before being active on Sunday. There is not much concern that Lamb will miss this game. He leads the league in market share and is tied for fifth in catchable passes. His counting stats haven’t been there, but he’s receiving more opportunities than anyone in the league. Lamb has flirted with the bonus three times and has a real shot to get there in a back-and-forth game with the Eagles.

Michael Gallup $5,400 – Flex

Michael Gallup returned to action in week four after suffering a season-ending leg injury last year. He’s not quite back to a full-time role but has been productive on his opportunities. He’s been targeted eight times with six receptions for 68 yards and a touchdown. He’s expensive enough to keep his roster percentage down and should jump Noah Brown in snap share any week now.

Noah Brown $5,000 – Flex

Noah Brown played himself into a starting role with Gallup out for the early part of the year. He’s handled a respectable 20% market share to this point. He is likely to take a step back as Gallup reaches full health. The difference in snap share when they switch roles will be marginal, and Brown has demonstrated a strong connection with Rush.

Dalton Schultz $4,800 – Flex

Dalton Schultz suffered a PCL sprain in week two and hasn’t been right since. He returned from a one-game absence in week four to the tune of three targets on a 90% snap share. He aggravated the injury early last week and managed just one target on 18% of the snaps. If he’s healthy, he’s the best play on the Dallas side of the ball. Unfortunately, I do not believe he is healthy.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Jake Ferguson $200 – Flex

Neither Jake Ferguson nor Peyton Hendershot has done anything with their increased opportunity in the offense. As far as punts go, it wouldn’t hurt to get Ferguson in the player pool with a chance Shultz can’t take his full reps again.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,800 – Captain or Flex

Jalen Hurts is making a strong case for league MVP after facing a long off-season of speculation regarding his legitimacy as a franchise quarterback. He’s hit the passing bonus twice in five weeks and has the rushing upside to double bonus. He’s supporting multiple pass catchers each week. He’s ranked 12^th in completed air yards per pass attempt which demonstrates his deep ball success. The best way to play Hurts at Captain will be with three Eagles pass catchers while slightly decreasing Miles Sanders’ projection.

RUNNING BACK

Miles Sanders $8,400 – Flex or Captain

Miles Sanders has been a pleasant surprise thus far. He is sixth in attempts, and fourth in yards. Perhaps most importantly is that he has three touchdowns already after scoring just two all last year. He’s catching some passes but not quite enough to fit into a pass-heavy Hurts build. Hurts should be in every lineup, but he’s best used in the Flex if including Sanders.

Kenneth Gainwell $5,000 – Flex

Kenneth Gainwell’s role from last year has diminished. He’s now playing more of an Alexander Mattison role. He’s got a chance to see a couple of targets and a few carries but he’s more of an injury-upside play than anything else.

RECEIVER

A.J. Brown $10,600 – Captain or Flex

A.J. Brown is yet another star receiver switching teams and crushing the narrative that every receiver has to be worse in a new environment. Brown is sixth in market share, fifth in yards, and seventh in yards after the catch. He’s been as productive as the receivers we see nearing $12,000 but is just $10,600 on this slate. Brown has the most upside outside of Hurts and should be paired with him often.

DeVonta Smith $7,400 – Captain or Flex

While Brown has been the star of the show, Smith has been quietly productive. Smith put up a donut in week one but is averaging seven receptions a game since. His yardage output has varied dramatically which is well baked into his price. This is a great week to mix and match your Eagles stacks in 20-max tournaments, but in single entry, Smith is the preferred option over Dallas Goedert if choosing only one.

Dallas Goedert $6,800 – Flex

Dallas Goedert is sixth in the league amongst tight ends with 19%. He’s first in yards after the catch and first in receptions over 20 yards. He’s an explosive play waiting to happen. He’s less safe than Smith, which is why he’s priced lower, but his ceiling is similar. Goedert is a great pairing option with Hurts, but he also makes Captain consideration.

Quez Watkins $4,600 – Flex

Quez Watkins is operating on just a 10% target share but he is playing 50% of the snaps. He is great salary relief at a low roster percentage to pivot off one of the big three Eagles receivers.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Zach Pascal $2,000 – Flex

Zach Pascal has received at least one target each week except for week five. He’s been playing between 20%-40% of the snaps. A three-catch for 30-yard performance is well within his range of outcomes and could find itself in the optimal lineup given his salary.