Sunday Showdown Week 4

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Kanas City Chiefs are heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers as .5-point favorites. The total is set at 45.5. There do not seem to be any weather concerns for this game despite Tampa Bay feeling the effects of Hurricane Ian just days ago. The story of the slate starts and ends with the Buccaneer’s wide receiver group. Mike Evans is returning from suspension at full health, but Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Chris Godwin are all coming off of nagging lower body injuries. We need to monitor the news to see if any of them will be on a pitch count. The headache lies with projecting snap shares amongst the injured wide receivers. With so much ambiguity we have a chance to separate ourselves from the field if we can nail down which Tampa Bay wide receivers are worth playing.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Breshad Perriman – Knee/Ankle – Inactive

Russell Gage – Hamstring – Active

Chris Godwin – Hamstring – Active

Julio Jones – Knee – Active

Harrison Butker – Ankle – Questionable

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Abdomen – Questionable

Mecole Hardman – Heel – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Leonard Fournette
2. Patrick Mahomes II
3. Travis Kelce
4. Mike Evans
5. Tom Brady

CHIEFS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes II $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Patrick Mahomes II started the year with a 5-touchdown and 360-yard performance that resulted in him resting for most of the fourth quarter. Since then, he has attempted 35 passes a game and thrown for just 3 total touchdowns. He is going to be the more popular quarterback to stack in this game, but his receiving corps is not much less ambiguous than Tom Brady’s. We still don’t have clarity on the Chiefs’ top wide receiver. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is leading the team in snaps, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has a slight lead in targets. Mecole Hardman is firmly entrenched as the third option playing on over half the snaps. Mahomes is going to be difficult to stack without being chalky. We could omit Travis Kelce, but it is unlikely that Mahomes finishes in the optimal lineup without Kelce. Here are some ideas to play Mahomes at Captain while remaining unique.

Patrick Mahomes II / Travis Kelce / Noah Gray

Patrick Mahomes II / Marquez Valdes-Scantling / Jerick McKinnon

Patrick Mahomes II / JuJu Smith-Schuster / Justin Watson

RUNNING BACK

Clyde Edwards-Helaire $7,800 – Flex

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been one of fantasy football’s top running backs despite questionable usage. In terms of snap share, he isn’t even the starter. He has failed to play over 45% of the snaps through three weeks and has not handled more than 8 carries. His production has come in the passing game after two years of being underutilized. He’s received an average of four targets through three games. With the price disparity between Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, it is worth leaning on McKinnon for his savings.

Jerick McKinnon $4,600 – Flex

Jerick McKinnon is leading the team in running back snaps but has failed to produce much given his opportunity. We have him projected for roughly four points less than Edwards-Helaire but they’re close from a points-per-dollar perspective. McKinnon is the slight favorite for a smaller roster percentage and lower salary. Both backs are strong leverage in Tampa Bay stacks over the highly rostered Mahomes stacks.

RECEIVER

Travis Kelce $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Travis Kelce is dominating team target share, but his production has failed to meet expectations. He had a huge game in week one but has just one more reception and ten more yards than Smith-Schuster since then. The presence of Fournette in the same price range could decrease Kelce’s roster percentage, but he will still be in nearly 50% of lineups as he typically is. Kelce had a tough drop last week that I’m sure he’ll want to rectify but he’s not as scary to fade in this Chiefs offense as he’s been in years past.

JuJu Smith-Schuster $7,000 – Flex

JuJu Smith-Schuster’s projection would make a lot more sense if not for his three-target game in week two. We’ve got two games of eight targets and one game of three. I’m choosing to believe that targets are closer to his median which would make him more of a 1B to Kelce in terms of volume. At $3,800 less than Kelce, Smith-Schuster is a great pivot option for Mahomes stacks.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,600 – Flex

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is leading the team in snaps but has not done much with his opportunity. He’s working with a low yards per target despite being pigeonholed as a deep threat. He lacks box score production but Valdes-Scantling is getting the opportunities he needs. He is no stranger to massive performances on Showdown slates and is one of the better contrarian options.

Mecole Hardman $5,200 – Flex

Mecole Hardman is always tough to get a feel for as he is one of the “such a bad play that he’s a good play” options for Showdown tournaments. His target share has gone down each week, but his snap share has remained consistent. He is the worst of the stacking options for Mahomes and only becomes viable if his projected roster percentage is under 20%.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Justin Watson $800 – Flex

Justin Watson has received at least one target in each game thus far. In week two he scored a long touchdown on one of his two catches. He will be one of the more popular punt options, but he is worth having exposure to in multi-entry tournaments.

Noah Gray $1,600 – Flex

Noah Gray has a legitimate role in the Chiefs offense playing on over 40% of the snaps and seeing multiple targets in each game. He is a bit more expensive than most people feel comfortable with for pure punt plays so his roster percentage should remain low. He and Cade Otton are the best punt options on the slate.

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tom Brady $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Tom Brady has had a rough go of it to start the year, but he has been working with his backup receivers in all three games. This week has Russell Gage, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones back in the lineup but are likely to have their snaps managed. In week three Brady attempted 42 passes which are closer to what we expect from this offense. In trying to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs, he should set a season high in pass attempts once again. Much of the field will be stacking the Chiefs so Brady is strong leverage when paired with multiple pass catchers; especially if played without Leonard Fournette.

RUNNING BACK

Leonard Fournette $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Leonard Fournette is likely to be the highest-rostered player on the slate. His price is not quite high enough given his massive workload. He is averaging 19 rushes and 4 targets on 85% of the snaps. With the Buccaneers’ injury-riddled wide receiver corps it is likely Fournette carries the offense once again. Fournette is a strong play regardless of his roster percentage.

RECEIVER

Mike Evans $9,400 – Captain or Flex

This is one of the tougher wide receiver groups we will deal with all year. The one thing we know for sure is that Mike Evans is healthy coming off his one-game suspension. In week one he played on 73% of the snaps. In week two his day was cut short via ejection. Evans is Tom Brady’s primary red zone target and should see a target share north of 20% with so many injuries. Evans is pairing his high touchdown equity with a higher-than-normal target share, making him a strong Captain option.

Chris Godwin $8,400 – Flex

Chris Godwin is active after suffering a hamstring injury in week one. Given the way his practice week was managed, he seems like he may be on a pitch count. Godwin has played on limited snaps multiple times in his career with mixed results. Given his price and limited workload, Godwin is tough to get excited about; especially with JuJu Smith-Schuster available for $1,400 less.

Julio Jones $6,600 – Flex

Julio Jones has not played since injuring his knee in week 1 where he converted 5 targets into 3 receptions for 69 yards. Based on his two limited practices followed by a non-participation it seems as though he should also be limited. He makes an interesting contrarian play as he is slightly too expensive to warrant a high roster percentage.

Russell Gage $6,200 – Flex

Russell Gage has the widest range of outcomes as he could be the best play of the slate, or play limited snaps. He followed in the same path as Jones with two limited practices followed by non-participation. Given the way both injuries have been handled the exact same way, I am speculating that they both will be managed in some way. With worse receiver depth last week, Gage caught 12 passes for 87 yards and a touchdown on 80% of the snaps. With Godwin and Jones both active, Gage is the preferred option.

Cole Beasley $4,800 – Flex

Cole Beasley saw four targets in his first outing with Tom Brady as the team was marred with injury. Brady’s public support for Beasley may elevate his roster percentage. There is no real reason to go with Beasley when both kickers, both defenses, and Jerick McKinnon project better in the same price range with similar roster percentages.

Scotty Miller $3,400 – Flex

Scotty Miller was another product of the slim wide receiver depth last week. He saw caught one of his five targets. If at least one of Godwin, Gage, or Jones are active Miller should be heading back to the bench. With so much nuisance to the Buccaneer's wide receiver group, we need to find ways to narrow the pool. Miller and Beasley are the easiest to cross out.

Cameron Brate $3,600 – Flex

Cameron Brate had six targets last week and a 90% snap share that looks great on paper, but Cade Otton was inactive. In the first two weeks, Brate and Otton split the snaps and Brate caught just two passes. Otton’s snaps should continue to increase at the expense of Brate. Brate is a fine option in large field tournaments, but Otton is the preferred option given his minimum salary and similar opportunity.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Rachaad White $600 – Flex

Offensive Coordinator Byron Leftwich has vowed the get Rachaad White more involved after White averaged just 16% of the snaps through three weeks. White can be an excellent third down back in the future. On this slate, he provides leverage over Fournette who is likely to be the most rostered player.

Cade Otton $200 – Flex

Cade Otton increased his snaps from week one to week two before missing week three due to the unfortunate loss of his mother. Look for Otton to take an even larger snap share from Brate in week four.