Sunday Showdown Week 14

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins are heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers as 3.5-point favorites. The total is set at 53.5. After quite some time we’ve finally arrived at a true “play whoever you want” slate. We’ve got six players projected for 15 or more points, with a couple of others still bolstering slate winning upside. The Chargers have the highest pass rate in the league, while the Dolphins rank 8^th. With so many viable options, the most important factor will be roster percentage. Every week we’re looking to make unique viable lineups, but with two teams projected over 25 points scored, we can let the field make most of the decisions for us. I’m choosing to approach this game with Miami covering handily, so I can land on Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert more often.

INJURY ROUND-UP

River Cracraft – Calf – Questionable

Durham Smythe – Knee – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jaylen Waddle
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. Austin Ekeler
5. Keenan Allen
6. Justin Herbert

MIAMI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Over the past five weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has hit the 300-yard-bonus twice and has been within 15 yards in each of the other three games. He’s attempted 30 or more passes in six straight. In week eight, Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jalen Waddle all scored roughly 30 Draftkings points. This offensive explosion came in a 31-27 win over the Detroit Lions who at the time ranked top-10 in pass rate. Tagovailoa has been the highest scorer on his team in two of the last five games. With so much attention being paid to Tagovailoa’s pass catchers, I will be playing him as Captain with at least three receiving options.

RUNNING BACK

Jeff Wilson $6,200 – Flex

With both Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert active, it appears as if the team prefers Wilson. Unfortunately, we don’t have much of a sample size with both backs active and healthy. Last week the Dolphins attempted just eight total rushes, so it is not an accurate representation of the backfield split. The most likely scenario is that both backs earn roughly 15 attempts.

Raheem Mostert $5,600 – Flex

With both backs earning similar workloads at roughly the same price, it is going to be difficult to pin down which to use. If roster percentage is leaning into one or the other, we will simply do the opposite, but if that is not the case, we will have to split our exposure. I will be playing both backs in the same lineup to create a unique Dolphins four-man stack.

Receiver

Tyreek Hill $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Since Tagovailoa’s week seven return, Hill is averaging 10 targets per game. He’s had at least 140 receiving yards in three of those six games. His only “down” week came against the Browns where he caught five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. He’s difficult to fade, especially given he’s priced about $1,000 too low.

Jaylen Waddle $9,000 – Captain or Flex

Jaylen Waddle started the season neck and neck in most statistical categories. Hill started to pull away by week 4. Over the past five games, Waddle has averaged over seven targets per game and hit the 300-yard-bonus once. He may no longer share the same raw projection as Hill, but he has the upside to go over 150 yards and will come at a lower roster percentage.

Trent Sherfield $4,600 – Flex

Trent Sherfield took Tagovailoa’s first pass of the game to the house for 75 yards and was not involved the rest of the game. He is $4,600 because he has that splash play upside, but considering we saw it last week, his roster percentage may be a touch too high. We will need to hit on the ancillary pieces in these offenses to succeed, but Sherfield isn’t involved as much as we’d like for his price.

Mike Gesicki $4,400 – Flex

Mike Gesicki is far too expensive for his recent usage. He hasn’t caught a single pass since week 10 and hasn’t had a meaningful fantasy performance since week 8. Perhaps if Durham Smythe is out, Gesicki can be a contrarian large-field tournament play.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Alec Ingold $1,200 – Flex

Alec Ingold has been targeted four times in two of the last three games and is on the field more often than either running back.

Cedrick Wilson $200 – Flex

Cedrick Wilson has not demonstrated it this season, but he also has that 75-yard touchdown reception upside similar to Sherfield but he’s a fraction of the cost. His snaps are all over the map, but it seems as though his floor is 20%.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Justin Herbert $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Justin Herbert is fresh off his first 300-yard performance since week four and now he gets to go toe-to-toe with another one of the league’s most pass-happy offenses. In addition to flirting with the 300-yard-bonus each week, Herbert has been adding at least four rushes in each of the past four games. I will be stacking the Dolphins while looking to fit Herbert and one of his cheaper pass catchers where I can.

RUNNING BACK

Austin Ekeler $11,000 – Captain or Flex

Austin Ekeler is a near lock for 20 touches and has been targeted at least 10 times in five games this season. He’s only playing roughly 70% of the snaps, but he’s carrying a heavy workload. Ekeler can be played at Captain with Herbert in the flex while still playing four Dolphins.

RECEIVER

Keenan Allen $8,200 – Captain or Flex

Keenan Allen had one of his vintage stat lines last week: 14 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. This week he is getting a tough secondary and the return of Mike Williams. With both Miami receivers set to be more popular, and Mike Williams returning, we could see Keenan Allen go underutilized.

Mike Williams $7,000 – Flex

Mike Williams is going to be the toughest player to decide on this week. He was completely off the injury report early in the week, but he’s also been known to suit up for a limited role. Since he was off the report so early in the week, and the field is going to be just as hesitant as we are, I will be getting some exposure to Williams.

Josh Palmer $6,800 – Flex

Josh Palmer is going to be my favorite Chargers receiver. Williams should draw a tough matchup against Xavien Howard and Keenan Allen is $1,400 more expensive. Palmer has been targeted at least seven times in the last six games and I expect that to continue this week.

Gerald Everett $5,000 – Flex

Gerald Everett is another nice leverage spot, especially for lineups including Tagovailoa, Waddle, and Hill. The field is going to lean into a stars and scrubs approach while also gravitating to the kickers in the $4,000 range, leaving Everett forgotten.

DeAndre Carter $4,800 – Flex

With Williams, active and healthy Carter should return to his limited role which should’ve made him closer to $3,000. At $4,800 he isn’t much more than a “so bad he’s good” punt play.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Joshua Kelley $5,400 – Flex

Last week Joshua Kelley played 43% of the snaps and handled seven carries. That’s not quite enough work to warrant his price, but he’s worth including in 150-max simply for the off chance of a vulturing a touchdown.

Stone Smartt $600 – Flex

Stone Smartt was targeted three times last week with a 21% snap share. I’m interested in Everett this week, but Smartt could pay off with a few receptions at his price tag.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

Both kickers are viable options for salary savings with so many star players we’re looking to jam in. Although these matchups don’t bode well for either defense, these are the best games to play them, as they’ll both carry low roster percentages.