Sunday Showdown Week 12

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Green Bay Packers are heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles as 6.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 46.5. The most important factor of this slate is how we build our lineups around Jalen Hurts. He’s come in at a hefty $11,600 but he will still be a staple of our lineups. The Eagles are scoring the fourth most points per game in the league, and Hurts is heavily involved as both a passer and a rusher. Draftkings has done a nice job pricing up some of the other options with similar ceilings in A.J. Brown and Aaron Jones, so we are forced to make difficult decisions with Hurts. The decision gets even tougher when considering whether to play Aaron Rodgers. Pairing Rodgers with Hurts forces us off one of Jones or Brown and requires multiple low-priced pass catchers. We’ll be looking to build around four Eagles while pairing Rodgers with Jones or one of his receivers.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Romeo Doubs– Ankle – Out
• Dallas Goedert – Shoulder - Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jalen Hurts
2. Aaron Jones
3. Miles Sanders
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. A.J. Brown

GREEN BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Over the past two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has regained the efficiency he’s been known for throughout his career. Despite completing just 38 passes he’s managed to produce 451 yards and five touchdowns. This is only a partially fair assessment, as all five touchdowns miraculously went to Christian Watson. Even still, it is no safe assumption he would not have completed passes to other receivers. We’re going to look to pair Rodgers with some receivers outside of Watson in hopes that their roster percentage comes in lower than it should due to Watson’s incredible two-week stretch.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Aaron Jones has gone back to dominating the backfield snaps after a few stints of increased involvement for A.J. Dillon throughout the season. Last week was a down week for rushing production, but he caught six passes. The week prior was a great week for rushing production and he caught just two passes. He’s going to be heavily involved regardless of the game script and has the safest floor outside of Jalen Hurts.

A.J. Dillon $4,800 – Flex

A.J. Dillon’s usage has been up and down, but he seems to have settled in around 40% of the snaps recently. He’s handled at least 10 carries in 8 of 11 games. He’s also had games with up to six targets, but there is no rhyme or reason as to why he’s getting targeted in some games and not others. At $4,800 he finally feels cheap enough to be worth taking a chance on in hopes that he can manage 15 total touches and outscore both the kickers and the defenses.

Receiver

Allen Lazard $7,400 – Flex

Christian Watson had another multi-touchdown week, but it was Allen Lazard who earned 11 targets in week 11. Lazard still has a firm handle on the top target share. With only $200 separating Watson and Lazard, the guess is that Lazard comes in at a lower roster percentage. I greatly prefer Lazard even with Watson running historically hot in the touchdown category.

Christian Watson $7,200 – Flex

Christian Watson has five touchdowns in the last two weeks, but he’s done it on just eight receptions. He’s an excellent play at just $7,200 given the lack of depth for the Packers but if playing just one I prefer Lazard. Watson and Lazard paired with Rodgers at Captain is an affordable stack that should save some roster percentage when the lineup is filled out.

Randall Cobb $5,200 – Flex

Randall Cobb earned six targets on a 56% snap share in his first week back since week 6. His price is a bit rich given that he is unlikely to see another six targets, but he does essentially make Sammy Watkins unplayable. I prefer Dillon in this price range.

Robert Tonyan Jr $5,000 – Flex

Robert Tonyan Jr’s target share is unpredictable but he is playing roughly 60% of the snaps over the last two weeks. He and Cobb are interchangeable, but Tonyan gets the slight nod due to total route participation.

Sammy Watkins $3,400 – Flex

Sammy Watkins has averaged just 35% of the snaps over the last two weeks and was targeted just five times. He only makes the player pool as a dart throw that will carry a low roster percentage in large field tournaments.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Josiah Deguara $1,000 – Flex

Josiah Deguara is always a popular punt option on Packers slates. He’s playing roughly 25% of the snaps and has the chance to see a couple of targets.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Jalen Hurts is one of the few quarterbacks in the NFL who have a realistic shot at hitting the double bonus for rushing and passing. Over the past couple of weeks, he’s come back down the earth and shown he is not a requirement for showdown slates. He’s the most difficult decision of the slate because if he is treated as a lock, we can avoid him knowing that he has not had the unmatched floor in recent weeks. If the field realizes he has not had the unmatched floor and he comes in south of 70% roster percentage, we’d be happy to lock him. As of now, I am assuming with the price of Jones, Rodgers, and Brown that Hurts with carrying a roster percentage right around 70%, making him a strong play.

RUNNING BACK

Miles Sanders $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Miles Sanders is my favorite play of the slate. He is fair to play with Hurts but should be locked into any lineup that does not include Hurts. His price is far too low considering he’s seen similar rushing usage to Jones. The reason he is so much cheaper is that he does not have the receiving upside that we’ve seen from Jones on occasion. What he does have is touchdown equity, which is not something we could’ve said at any other point in his career. He’s only got one multi-touchdown game on the season but if he can find the endzone twice that’s our best shot for a floor game out of Hurts.

Kenneth Gainwell $4,400 – Flex

Over the past two weeks, Kenneth Gainwell has averaged a 24% snap share, carried the ball twice, and caught one pass. Given that A.J. Dillon has a shot at 15 touches and is just $400 more, Gainwell is about as close to unplayable as it gets. Paired with the fact that the field loves to play Gainwell regardless of circumstance, he’s safe to avoid at cost.

RECEIVER

A.J. Brown $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Like Hurts, A.J. Brown is another expensive option with a massive ceiling that hasn’t shown up in the past couple of weeks. The problem with fading either Hurts or Brown is that if one hits their ceiling, the other is likely coming with them. I like pairing Hurts with Brown in the hopes that the field may be slightly down on the pairing at their expensive salaries.

DeVonta Smith $8,000 – Flex

When Dallas Goedert was active we usually got the lowest roster percentage on DeVonta Smith. With the newly narrowed target tree, expect the field to be just as in on Smith as they are on Brown. From a point-per-dollar perspective, Smith is every bit as viable as Brown and has even demonstrated a similar ceiling once this season. Smith and Brown can be played together with Hurts at Captain but when choosing just one I’ll lean Brown.

Quez Watkins $4,600 – Flex

Quez Watkins has played about 50% of the snaps all season, and he’s been a viable fantasy option over the past couple of weeks. Two weeks ago, he caught four passes for 80 yards, and last week he scored a touchdown. I would not bank on either of those outcomes happening again, but he’s a viable deep threat and a better dart throw than Gainwell given the nature of their respective positions.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Zach Pascal $2,000 – Flex

Zach Pascal isn’t showing up in the box score, but he’s nearly as involved as Quez Watkins. He’s caught at least one pass in the last four weeks, which could be enough work to pay off his low price tag.

Jack Stoll $1,200 – Flex

Jack Stoll jumped up to an 81% snap share last week in relief of the injured Dallas Goedert, but he was targeted only once. Given his involvement, it is unlikely he sees less than a couple of targets once again, but he will be the most popular punt play.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

With Philadelphia sitting at 6.5-point favorites, the 5 Eagles onslaught is alive and well. If rostering five Eagles, we’re going to want to play their defense most of the time. The underdog kicker continues to be a viable strategy making Mason Crosby the strongest play amongst the kickers and defenses.