Let's review some of last week's Film Talk to see how we did.
Correct Analysis/Predictions from Last Week
- Lawrence turned in his best game as a pro with a 121.5 QB rating.
- Kirk was very involved again and caught two touchdowns.
- Another dominant performance from Wentz, with included 337 yards and 3 touchdown passes.
- Sadly, this take was correct, as Lance suffered a season-ending injury. We're all hoping for a full and speedy recovery.
- Career highs in receptions and yards with one touchdown.
Incorrect Analysis/Predictions from Last Week
- David Montgomery had one of his most efficient games as a Chicago Bear.
Travis Etienne
- The Colts made all Jaguar runners inefficient, but Etienne only earned 2.2 YPC.
Jeff Wilson
- Clearly, Wilson used my article as motivation as he produced over 100 total yards.
I'm not pitching a perfect game here, but I'm helping your fantasy teams. This week we're going to look at two of the most exciting games this past weekend. The Baltimore at Miami game featured many fantasy-relevant players; I was intrigued to see this new Miami offense and wanted to see the comeback. Arizona at Las Vegas has two offenses that are struggling and also a big comeback.
Analysis from Week 3
Disclaimer: Coaches are critical by the nature of the profession. I will reveal the good and bad about players. It doesn't mean I'm a homer or a hater, so the kids say. It's just honesty.
Baltimore at Miami
Baltimore scored a touchdown on three big plays in this game, which started with the opening kickoff. Miami played lots of cover 0 and cover 1 with man coverage to keep defenders at the line of scrimmage and blitz. This backfired on a 75-yard touchdown slant route to Rashod Bateman, which lacked any safety help. A 79-yard touchdown run by Lamar Jackson had two Dolphins defenders adjust too far with motion and left an open gap. However, the Ravens blew two different coverages late in this game, which allowed Tyreek Hill to get behind the defense for easy touchdowns.The Ravens' defensive line was giving the Dolphins pass protection issues. The Miami offense is fun to watch because they utilize motion and RPOs to create mismatches in their favor. Zone blocking is still the staple for the running game. The speed of their wide receivers creates large voids underneath for easy completions.
QB Tua Tagovailoa
The Good
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Processes information quickly and shows a good command of the offense
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Makes subtle movements in the pocket to create time and space away from defenders
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Throws the football on time, which is an answer to arm strength concerns
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Accurate with his placement
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Can fit the football in tight windows because of anticipation
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Confident and calm in the pocket
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Delivered an absolute seed to Mike Gesicki for a touchdown in traffic
The Bad
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Doesn't possess great arm strength
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Forces the football to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
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Missed an open player to throw to Hill, and it caused an INT
Takeaway
This offense is tailor-made for Tagovailoa's strength as a passer, and he gets to utilize the fastest pair of weapons in the NFL. Tagovailoa isn't a mirage, and he'll continue to put up monster numbers in this offense.
RB Raheem Mostert
The Good
-
Still possesses a very good burst
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Patient with his cutbacks in the outside zone scheme
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Was involved more than Chase Edmonds
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Caught the football well and was somewhat involved in the passing game
The Bad
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Lacks any kind of power
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Takes extra steps to move laterally because of flexibility and balance
Takeaway
Mostert dominating the touches might create a value buy in redraft leagues. Running lanes will continue to exist because of the scheme and fear for Hill and Waddle will keep the boxes light.
RB Chase Edmonds
The Good
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Made a big play late in this game to help set up the winning touchdown
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Good lateral movements
The Bad
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Being second in carries and targets in this backfield is a bad sign
Takeaway
Edmonds is a good fit for this scheme, but Mostert looks to have the upper hand with knowing the offense. I wouldn't trust Edmonds in lineups until we see him take over the starting job.
WR Tyreek Hill
The Good
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He is a fantastic athlete who utilizes most of his athletic gifts on the field
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Does a good job of threatening defenders vertically before making his breaks, which creates lots of separation
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The focal point of the offense
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Made huge plays when the offense needed them
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Doesn't take many big hits
The Bad
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Below-average blocker who puts in minimal effort
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Isn't on the field for some personnel packages and plays, which could reduce an opportunity for a target or two
Takeaway
The transition from Patrick Mahomes II to Tagovailoa has been pretty seamless regarding Hill's production. He's a mismatch on any football field, and the Dolphins are correctly utilizing him. Hill beat two blown coverages but also helped extend drives throughout this game. He's a WR1 in fantasy with Tagovailoa, and it's fun to see the creativity of this offense.
WR Jaylen Waddle
The Good
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Could have a debate about who's the better athlete between Hill and Waddle
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He is a very good route runner for a young player, who accelerates so well out of his breaks and cuts
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Aggressive after the reception
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Tagovailoa trusts Waddle, and it creates more targets
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Confident player
The Bad
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Dropped multiple passes in this game
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Didn't work back to the football, and it gave the defender time and space to break up the pass
Takeaway
An elite athlete, who is a very good route runner and earns lots of targets. He is a great fantasy asset in redraft and dynasty. The concerns that Hill will squash Waddle's fantasy value aren't true. They benefit from each other because it limits how often defenses can bracket them.
TE Mike Gesicki
The Good
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Good athlete for a tight end
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Hands catcher with a large catch radius
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Came down with a high target in the end zone
The Bad
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Low targets
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Does he fit the offense?
Takeaway
Gesicki is a better split-out weapon than in-line blocker, and it's tough to envision the Dolphins signing him to a long-term contract. Hill and Waddle are the focal points of the passing offense, and this isn't going to change. I'd sell Gesicki for what you can, especially after a game where he scored a touchdown.
QB Lamar Jackson
The Good
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Lamar and this offense had answers to the Dolphins' cover 0/1, which haunted them last season
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Effortlessly flicks the football and generates good arm strength
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Improved as a processor this season to make better and quicker reads
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Showed good touch on a few passes
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Plays at a different speed than anyone else when he runs and took advantage of an open gap for a long touchdown run
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Will slide or get down to reduce hits
The Bad
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Doesn't always keep a good base in the pocket, especially when moving to buy time within the pocket
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Could improve the spacing he creates within the pocket to be not as close to his lineman and further away from defenders
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Doesn't throw as well on the run or off script
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Didn't get deep into his progressions, but this could also be due to the blitzing
Takeaway
Lamar Jackson took a step in his quarterback development after regressing last year. He delivered some very good passes and took advantage of the defense multiple times. If he can take another step in development, then he would succeed at beating those playoff teams.
RB Kenyan Drake
The Good
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Still possesses good quickness and athleticism
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Makes good cuts and can avoid defenders
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Gets skinny to fit through holes
The Bad
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Inconsistent with vision
Takeaway
I came away more impressed with Drake than I anticipated. While this will be J.K. Dobbins' backfield when he returns, I have confidence that Drake is the lead back over Mike Davis.
WR Rashod Bateman
The Good
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An underrated athlete who ran away from the defense for a 75-yard slant for a touchdown
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Efficient mover on the field, which helps him in the open field and during his routes
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Routinely ran good routes by turning the cornerback's hips to create separation
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Made defenders miss in the open field
The Bad
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Second in the target pecking order to Andrews
Takeaway
If you had big concerns about Bateman, they are gone after this game. He made one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, Xavien Howard, look bad many times. Bateman had a fantastic overall game. The biggest question remaining is whether a low-volume passing offense can produce two fantasy assets.
TE Mark Andrews
The Good
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He is a good route runner who uses his body and angles to create separation(think prime Jason Witten)
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Top target and security blanket for Jackson
The Bad
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Dropped a pass on a good ball from Jackson
Takeaway
Andrews has a stable position in this Ravens passing game because of his rapport with Jackson and consistently wins one-on-one matchups. He's a smart player who gets open and uses his body well. TE1 now and in the future.
Arizona at Las Vegas
This game was very interesting. The Raiders were up 20-0 at the half and then 23-7 after three quarters. Then the Cardinals scored 22 points in the fourth quarter and overtime to win the game, including turning the ball over on downs deep in Raider territory. The Cardinals seemed out of sync for most of the game with trying to do too much with play calling in terms of deep routes and getting too cute with plays. Mirrored routes that didn't give Kyler Murray options if the initial read wasn't open. It wasn't until Murray started throwing the football in rhythm and scrambling all over the place did they start to find success. The Raiders had a good balance in the first half with running the football, good screen passes, and getting many different pass catchers involved. But the Cardinals got after Derek Carr in the second half and the Raiders couldn't get the offense going. The Raiders ran many pro formations with 21 personnel and a power running game with play action off of it, which I found a little odd with three very good pass catchers who wouldn't all be on the field to threaten the defense.
QB Kyler Murray
The Good
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Doesn't get enough credit for his arm talent
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Threw two absolute dimes to AJ Green in this game that he couldn't have placed any better, and one of those was to send the game to overtime
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Can make anticipatory throws
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Progresses through his reads
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Loves throwing to the single receiver side away from trips and has lots of success
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Very productive when he throws on time
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Great athlete who can make defenders look silly and extend plays
The Bad
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Late on multiple throws, which led to two interceptions and another that was almost picked
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Misses some open receivers over the middle of the field because he can't see them
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Can be overconfident in his abilities, which leads to negative plays
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Inconsistent with scrambling and sometimes goes down easy or stops scrambling when more lanes are available
Takeaway
Murray is a great talent both as a runner and a thrower, and his arm has great accuracy. But he's inconsistent, and the offense sputters because of it.
RB James Conner
The Good
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Good fake on a screen to setup the defense
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Patient on an outside zone run, which allowed a big cutback
The Bad
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Didn't show his usual power
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Lacked a lot of burst
Takeaway
Conner didn't look like his usual self and left the game due to an injury.
RB Eno Benjamin
The Good
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Showed good vision and cutting ability
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Has burst to take advantage of space
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Lots of effort to maximize runs
The Bad
-
Attempts to finish off runs but lacks power
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Good, but not great, athlete
Takeaway
Both Benjamin and Darrel Williams played in Conner's absence, but Benjamin was the better back.
WR Marquise Brown
The Good
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Amazing contested reception, which required an adjustment because it wasn't a great throw
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Became more involved in overtime
The Bad
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Couldn't hold onto a big pass play in overtime after taking a big hit from a defender
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Defenders can get physical with him
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Disappeared at times
Takeaway
It's tough to put a finger on why Brown wasn't consistently involved. Is he still establishing rapport with Murray? Learning the offense? Brown wasn't efficient with his targets, but I'm hopeful better days are ahead.
WR Greg Dortch
The Good
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Playmaker, who continually makes plays and maximizes his touches in the passing and return game
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Good short area burst and agility
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Dortch is good at making defenders miss and creating separation
The Bad
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3rd or 4th in the target pecking order currently
Takeaway
The Cardinals wouldn't have won the game without Greg Dortch. He's a creative playmaker who works best in space. He'll keep getting opportunities with Deandre Hopkins still suspended, but it may be limited when thereafter. Dortch could be a flex play or useful in DFS for the next few weeks. He's earned more opportunities.
TE Zach Ertz
The Good
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He's the current safety blanket for Murray
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Smart player who runs good routes by finding soft spots in zone and using his body position
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Sold a block well to set up a screen
The Bad
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He's lost at least half a step from his prime
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Murray doesn't thrive throwing to the middle of the field
Takeaway
Ertz is a big target who Murray relies on to keep the offense on schedule. He's not going to make a ton of big plays athletically, but he'll have a solid floor in fantasy.
QB Derek Carr
The Good
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Maintains a good base in the pocket and throws on rhythm
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Generally does a good job with reading coverages to utilize his best matchups and will take one on one shots when the opportunities present themselves
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Patient when not facing pressure to let plays and concepts develop
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Smart player who processes information well and understands the offense
The Bad
-
Faded away on a throw and almost got intercepted in overtime
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Forced passes to Davante Adams, even when he's not open
Takeaway
Carr is an above-average quarterback who plays within the structure of the offense. He has good command and processes information well. He's got very good weapons around him, which will give him some bigger weeks in fantasy. Carr is a higher floor but lower ceiling play.
RB Josh Jacobs
The Good
-
Grew more confident as the game continued
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Made multiple defenders miss
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Runs hard to finish off runs
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Later in the game, he made multiple good cuts to find holes
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Productive on a screen pass
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Showed good burst, balance and agility
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Dominated touches in the backfield
The Bad
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Lowered his shoulder instead of trying to make defenders miss with space
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Stayed within the play design to a fault early in the game
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Lost a few receptions to Ameer Abdullah
Takeaway
I was impressed with Josh Jacobs because he looked like an above-average starting running back in the second half of this game. He was athletic, powerful, agile, and maintained his balance. Jacobs is a buy in redraft because his general value is lower than his production. He's a great RB3 play in fantasy.
WR Davante Adams
The Good
-
Many targets, despite bracketed coverage
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Designed target in the red zone for a touchdown
The Bad
-
Lots of defensive attention went Adams' way
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Didn't threaten defenders vertically enough, and they squatted on shorter pass plays
Takeaway
Adams had a down game because he had lots of defensive attention. Defensive backs didn't bite on many of his initial fakes, and it didn't allow for as much separation. No panicking here because Adams will have better games in 2022.
WR Hunter Renfrow
The Good
-
Very quick player who is a creative route runner
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Settles down in zones and utilizes space well
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Confident and efficient with his movements
-
Rapport with Carr
The Bad
-
Fumbled two plays in overtime, and it led to the Raiders losing the game
Takeaway
Renfrow is a fun player to watch because he's always open due to his quickness, intelligence, and route running. Carr trusts him, and he'll continue to get targets this year, despite a crowded Raiders group. If you need a WR3 or solid flex in PPR leagues, I'd look to acquire Renfrow.
TE Darren Waller
The Good
-
He's a mismatch over the middle of the field and in the red zone with his size and athletic ability
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Had three end zone targets
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Smart enough to settle down in zones
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Uses his body well
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Ran with power after a reception to gain yards
The Bad
-
Only caught one of three end zone targets
Takeaway
Waller's a great weapon as a tight end, and he'll still get opportunities in Las Vegas. However, he needs to capitalize when given these targets because he won't have as many opportunities as in years past.
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