Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you're taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.
- Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
- Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Week 18 is a difficult slate because some teams and players are motivated to finish the season strong. Meanwhile, other teams and players aren't as motivated because they're locked into their playoff seeds or can't qualify for the playoffs. The three charts below indicate teams with extra motivation, teams who could be resting players, and players who could earn more money due to incentives. Contrarian plays could come from many different scenarios in these situations. Motivated teams will have players putting in more effort and it could equate to more production. While the resting teams could have low roster percentages backups producing or opponents that are now not overmatched by a team that was formerly superior. Money is a strong motivator for players with incentives. Please use the below charts as a guide to helping your overall lineups and not just your contrarian plays.
The key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
Contrarian Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield has 14 TD passes in his last four games, averaging over 311 passing yards and 20 rushing yards. Mayfield has been incredible as he's willing the Bucs into the playoffs, and they can seal that spot with a win on Sunday. The good news is they're playing a Saints defense allowing over 320 yards to opponents in seven straight games and the ninth-most fantasy points to QBs.
Michael Penix Jr. has played well in his initial two starts in the NFL, but this is the most important of his career. The Falcons are battling for a playoff spot and must win on Sunday. They'll play a Panthers defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs this season. Carolina will be without Pro Bowl CB Jaycee Horn and starting LB Josey Jewell to make things easier for Penix and Atlanta's offense.
It appears that Kansas City will be resting most of their starters on Sunday, making things much easier for Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, who are fighting for the last playoff spot. Nix has thrown five TDs in his last two games while averaging 269 total yards. Monitor the Chiefs' defensive status on Sunday, but Nix is a prime candidate for a big game against backups.
Tyler Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes last week for 225 passing yards and 52 rushing yards with two total TDs. It was a good performance and kept Miami in the playoff hunt. Huntley's rushing ability is important for a DFS contrarian play, and his salary is cheap. He'll play a Jets defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs. That defense will be more vulnerable with Sauce Gardner out and Quinnen Williams questionable.
Contrarian Running Backs
De'Von Achane hasn't had the sophomore campaign people imagined, but he's fighting to get the Dolphins into the playoffs. He'll be playing against a Jets defense without Gardner and C.J. Mosely. Star DT Williams is also questionable to play, which would be a large help to Miami's offense. Achane has 11 straight games with double-digit touches and is playing a beat-up defense with little motivation for their last game.
J.K. Dobbins returned last week with a solid performance of 83 total yards and one TD. Gus Edwards is out again with an ankle injury. Dobbins is further motivated because he's 58 yards away from hitting an incentive to earn more money. The Raiders rank 12th against the run, but the Chargers are fighting for a better playoff seed and Dobbins to earn more money.
Tony Pollard is questionable to play with an ankle injury and didn't play last week. However, he practiced twice this week and is 83 rushing yards away from hitting an incentive. Pollard will be motivated to play against a Texans team likely sitting many starters after locking up the division. Tyjae Spears is out with a concussion, which will only boost Pollard's touches.
Saquon Barkley isn't playing, and Will Shipley is questionable with a concussion. This would leave a large workload for Kenneth Gainwell against a Giants defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to RBs. The Giants will also be without starting ILB Micah McFadden.
Contrarian Wide Receivers
Jalen McMillan has been on the quietest run in the DFS industry. McMillan has scored six TDs in his last four games and has earned at least 51 receiving yards in each of those contests. The Saints are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Tampa Bay is battling for a playoff spot, while New Orleans has no extra motivation in this game. A fun contrarian stack would be Mayfield with McMillan.
Romeo Doubs had 11 targets last week as Green Bay attempted to come back against Minnesota. Green Bay is trying to improve to be the sixth seed in the playoffs, and there is a large difference in the strength of the opponent. Doubs will play a Chicago defense that has ranked 32nd in EPA over the last four games. Christian Watson is questionable after having one limited practice this week. If he doesn't play, it will boost Doubs' target share.
Jauan Jennings is 77 yards away from 1,000 receiving yards on the season. His college teammate, Joshua Dobbs, will be starting at QB on Sunday, which helps with rapport. Deebo Samuel Sr. is out and George Kittle is questionable to play. Jennings could be the best target for San Francisco and he has 10 targets in his last game.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should both be contrarian options this week as Miami is battling for a playoff spot. Both players are questionable, so please monitor their status on Sunday. Hill produced a 105-yard game last week while catching all nine targets. CB Gardner is out for the Jets, which is a massive break for the outlook for both WRs. Another bonus is DT Williams is questionable after not practicing this week due to a hamstring injury.
Contrarian Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith's magical season didn't stop when Tua Tagovailoa stopped playing QB. Huntley started last week and Smith still caught a TD on four targets. Smith has caught a TD in three of his last four games and six total TDs in his last seven games. Miami counts on him to score, and they're battling for a playoff spot.
Chig Okonkwo has 28 targets in his last three games, which is an incredible amount of volume for a contrarian option at TE. The Titans won't have Tyler Boyd or Spears available on Sunday, which should help Okonkwo's case for targets. Furthermore, Houston is locked into the four seed and will be resting many starters, which will make things easier for the entire Tennessee offense. Please monitor Okonkwo's injury status on Sunday as he didn't practice on Friday due to an abdomen injury.
Washington needs to win on Sunday to secure the sixth playoff spot, even though they're guaranteed to make the playoffs. The sixth seed would play the Rams, while the seventh seed would play the Eagles. Zach Ertz is even more motivated because he has three different incentives within reach for more money. Ertz had six receptions for 72 yards and a couple of TDs last week in a crucial game for Washington.
Contrarian Team Defenses
Carolina's first game without Chuba Hubbard revealed an offense gaining only 204 yards and scoring 14 points. Atlanta needs to win on Sunday to have a chance to win the division and make the playoffs. The Falcons are motivated and they'll be playing at home against a Panthers team just trying to end the 2024 season.
The Chargers held the Patriots to only seven points and 181 yards of offense last week. They've held three of their last five opponents to under 20 offensive points. They'll play a Raiders offense that has scored 20 or more points in only one of their last seven games and only two of their last 13 games. The Raiders won't have Ameer Abdullah on Sunday, which takes away more offense. The Chargers are fighting for playoff positioning and could improve to the fifth seed.
