Week 17 DFS Contrarian

Contrarian plays to consider for your week 17 DFS lineups

Nick Whalen's Week 17 DFS Contrarian Nick Whalen Published 12/28/2024

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Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because you're taking a risk, but it can be a winning strategy. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments, because you'll submit more unique lineups than your competitors.

Mix one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.

Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.

The key for charts:

  • Player = recommended contrarian play
  • Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
  • FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
  • FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
  • DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
  • DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player

Special Note for This Week

Some players in this article will have higher roster ownership because of the limited number of games on the main slate.

Contrarian Quarterbacks

quarterbacks

Jordan Love hasn't accounted for more than two TDs in any of his last eight games. However, he threw three or more TDs in three of his initial five games this season. Love threw for 389 yards and four TDs against the Vikings earlier this season. The Vikings' run defense ranks second in the NFL with a +38.66 expected points contributed, while their pass defense ranks fourth with a -13.82 expected points contributed. Minnesota's priority will be stopping Josh Jacobs, and they are better suited to stop the run. Love having a big game could be the Packers' best chance to upset the Vikings at home.

The Jets have been letting Aaron Rodgers air out the football recently, which aids his fantasy numbers. Rodgers averaged 6.3 yards per attempt in his initial 12 games but is averaging 8.0 yards per attempt in the last three games. He's averaging 295 passing yards in the last three games versus 219 yards per game in the rest of the season. Rodgers threw for 294 yards and two TDs against Buffalo early this season. The Bills have allowed an average of 349 passing yards and 36 points in the last three games. 

Minnesota is battling for a division title, so they'll keep their foot on the accelerator. Sam Darnold has thrown nine TDs in his last three games and averaged 275 passing yards. Early this season, he threw for three TDs and 275 yards against the Packers on the road. Green Bay's defense is beaten up with injuries. They'll be without Jaire Alexander, Evan Williams, and Quay Walker, while Javon Bullard and Ty'Ron Hopper are questionable. Things are aligning for a favorable game for Darnold.

Mason Rudolph has averaged 231 passing yards and two TD passes over his last two games. Jacksonville has lost seven of their last eight games and allowed 28 points per game in those losses. The Jaguars defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs, and they'll be missing starting Safety Darnell Savage on Sunday. Jacksonville's only win in the last eight games was against the Titans, but it wasn't with Rudolph starting at QB. He's playing well and gets to play a soft pass defense.

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Contrarian Running Backs

running backs

Jerome Ford has picked up the slack after Nick Chubb's injury. Ford has averaged 118 total yards and a TD over his last two games. The Dolphins will be without starting LB Anthony Walker Jr. and CB Kendall Fuller. Cleveland will be without David Njoku and Cedric Tillman as well. Leaning on Ford running the football is Cleveland's best game plan. 

James Cook is expensive in DFS, but he shouldn't be eligible for a contrarian play. He's scored 10 TDs in his last eight games and averaged over 90 total yards. Cook has 120 or more total yards in three of his last four games. The Jets run defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, and Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, and Haason Reddick are questionable to play.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. logged one limited practice this week but should play on Sunday. Tracy has battled this ankle injury in the past weeks but played through it. Please monitor his status on Sunday to be sure. Tracy has scored a TD in three of his last four games and has produced 65 or more total yards in seven of his last eight games. While the Giants have struggled as a team, Tracy has been one of their most reliable players. They'll face a middle-of-the-road Colts defense.

Tony Pollard hasn't practiced this week and is questionable to play. He's played 44.3% and 39.3% snap share in the last two games. Pollard only had one game below 60% in his 13 prior games. Tyjae Spears has earned a 55.7% and 60.7% snap share in the last two games and has scored four TDs. The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Spears is a cheap salary contrarian play against a bad run defense.

Contrarian Wide Receivers

wide receiver

Christian Watson hasn't practiced this week and is listed as questionable to play.  Jayden Reed has produced 110 receiving yards over his last two games, which leads Green Bay, and added 32 rushing yards. Minnesota is allowing the second-most fantasy points to WRs. Reed has averaged over 103 receiving yards and a TD in three career games against the Vikings. He has a solid roster share percentage but falls into the contrarian category because of limited choices in the slate.

Minnesota has leaned on Jordan Addison during the second half of the season. In his last six games, he's earned 52 targets, which turned into 35 receptions for 508 yards and 6 TDs. Earlier, I mentioned that the Packers will be without Alexander, Williams, and Walker. Green Bay's defense ranks second against the pass, but they probably won't play as well, as they are down multiple starters. Addison averages one TD against the Packers in three career games. 

Kenny Pickett will start at QB with Jalen Hurts out with a concussion. Pickett played most of the game last week, and DeVonta Smith caught six of eight targets for 51 yards. Smith has averaged 65 receiving yards in his previous three games and scored two TDs. Pickett's rapport should grow with Smith and A.J. Brown as he gets all first-team reps in practice this week. The Eagles will face a Cowboys defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to WRs and have several key defenders on injured reserve. Philadelphia still needs to clinch the division title and fight for the top seed in the NFC.

The Browns will be without Njoku and Tillman as pass-catching threats, leaving Jerry Jeudy as the last man standing. Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled in his start last week, which is a large reason for Jeudy being a contrarian option. Over his last seven games, Jeudy has averaged over nine targets, which is a big opportunity for production every week. He'll play a middling Miami pass defense, but they'll be without starting CB Kendall Fuller and LB Anthony Walker Jr. on Sunday. 

CeeDee Lamb going on injured reserve opens the door to over 10 targets per game to be distributed to other Cowboys. Brandin Cooks has averaged just under five targets per game over the last four weeks and likely will be the WR who benefits the most from Lamb's absence. The Eagles have the third-ranked pass defense in the NFL and allow the second-least amount of fantasy points to WRs. It will be a difficult path for Cooks facing the Philadelphia defense, but opportunity creates good contrarian plays.

Contrarian Tight Ends

tight ends

The Saints are already missing Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, and Derek Carr on offense, but now Alvin Kamara, Erik McKoy, and Lucas Patrick are ruled out for Sunday. The Saints are missing playmakers and starting OL. A short passing attack would help take pressure off Spencer Rattler, and this is where Juwan Johnson's large frame comes into play. Johnson has multiple targets in 12 straight games but has averaged over four targets in his last four contests. He'll face a Raiders defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to TEs this season.

Over Jonnu Smith's last six games, he's averaging 8.5 targets, 7.2 receptions, 76 yards, and 0.83 TDs. This is fantastic production from a TE, and he shouldn't be available as a contrarian play. Smith could see more targets as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Dee Eskridge are all questionable to play. They'll play a Cleveland team that allows the 11th most fantasy points to TEs and doesn't have much to play for at this part of the season.

Tyler Conklin is a cheap salary contrarian play this week. He could be paired with Rodgers as a contrarian stack. Conklin is averaging just under six targets for 41 yards in his last three games. Davante Adams is questionable to play, as he only logged one limited practice this week. Monitor his status because it would enhance Conklin as a contrarian play.

Contrarian Team Defenses

defenses

The Giants are averaging under 11 points over their last three games and have gained 250 yards of offense only once in the last five games. They've turned the football over at least once in 14 of 15 games in 2024 and committed three turnovers last week. The Giants will be without their starting Center, and three other starting linemen are on the injury report. Malik Nabers is questionable to play as well. This play is less about the Colts' defense and more about the dreadful Giants' offense.

The Bills have forced 13 turnovers over their last six games, with three coming last week. They struggled in two of the previous three weeks against the Lions and Rams, but the Jets offense isn't on that level and only scored nine points last week while committing two turnovers. If Adams doesn't play, then the Bills will become very popular in DFS, and you may need to pivot away. 

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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