Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 18

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Week 17 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.

Give one player you expect to see the most significant dynasty movement between now and Week 1 of 2023.

Andy Hicks

WR Tyquan Thornton, New England

After a rough start to his professional career, Tyquan Thornton looked great against the Dolphins. He was catching difficult passes and was the go-to target for Mac Jones in key situations. Some rookie receivers take time to get it. His training camp and early part of his season were disrupted by injury, and he looked the most likely bust candidate from a great group of rookie receivers. New England also has an awful record of drafting wide receivers, and Thornton looked to be adding to this list of shame. New England may add a receiver in free agency, but it will not be a big name. News will be made of his development in training camp next year. He will be drafted as a borderline starter.

Dan Hindery

The most likely candidate to make a big move would be a young player who (1) can have a breakout over multiple playoff games and (2) could see their fantasy situation and opportunity improve moving forward.

RB James Cook, Buffalo

Cook is someone who fits those criteria. Cook did not play more than 26% of the snaps in any of his games prior to Week 13. He has played at least 36% of the snaps every week since. The Bills clearly want him to be a big part of the offense heading into the playoffs, and we could see him take on a progressively larger role should Buffalo make a deep playoff run. That will boost Cook’s dynasty stock. He could see that stock boosted further should Devin Singletary leave in free agency after the season. Cook is going to have competition for touches in some shape or form. He is unlikely to be a nearly every-down player like his brother has been at times. However, he is also the type of explosive player and PPR threat who does not need to be on the field every down to make a major fantasy impact.

Will Grant

WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City

Toney should have some interesting movement this summer - depending on what the Chiefs will do at wide receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardeman are free agents, and if either move on, the opportunity for Toney should increase significantly. He has had decent moments after coming to Kansas City but has also been nursing a hamstring injury and lost a fumble last week. Depending on how things shake out, Toney could be the #3-#4 guy next season or could vault up to #1 with a full training camp to work with the offense. A strong playoff performance could also vault him up the dynasty draft charts.

Chad Parsons

RB DAndre Swift, Detroit

Swift is commonly valued as an elite dynasty running back, Swift has sagged in production any stretch he has built momentum for a consistent role. Jamaal Williams is a free agent, which will help Swift initially in the offseason market, but I expect Detroit to add to the position this offseason with a quality free agent class and deep rookie crop. Swift sits at RB10 in my rankings and is likely lower post-NFL Draft.

Jordan McNamara

RB James Cook, Buffalo

Cook is in a really good position to see a value spike. Devin Singletary is a free agent, and Cooks has seen a growing role in recent weeks. Cook is a second round NFL draft pick, and it would be a historical outlier if he did not get an opportunity to start in 2023. Given his potential position, there is a good chance he sees a value improvement.

Quarterback Movement

Dan Hindery

Brock Purdy, San Francisco

I am considering Purdy a realistic option to be the 49ers' starting quarterback in 2023. He has his shot at winning the job over the next month. He has won five straight games, throwing multiple touchdowns in each. The 49ers have scored 33-plus points in 80% of the games he played nearly all of the snaps. Purdy cooling off is a distinct possibility, and his QB27 ranking in my latest update reflects that uncertainty while also accounting for the possibility that his strong play is not just a flash in the pan.

Will Grant

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore

It's hard to imagine the Ravens letting Jackson hit the free agent market, especially since the Ravens have been such a different team without him under center. However, he's on track to miss the last five games of the season and hasn't played a full schedule since his rookie season. His Yards per attempt are a career-low 6.88 and his 764 rushing yards are his lowest since his rookie year. Jackson is a quarterback you need to approach with caution, but he's still a rockstar when he is healthy. He deserves a downgrade.

Chad Parsons

Derek Carr, Las Vegas

Carr dropped nearly 10 spots in my quarterback rankings when pushing into the 2023 offseason view. Lacking rushing upside squeezes Carr into a small bucket of quarterback profiles who needs a monster passing season to hit as a QB1 for fantasy purposes. Also, Carr is (likely) leaving a Las Vegas offense with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller. There is a real possibility Carr has weaker weapons in 2023. Carr, for the first time in years, is outside of QB20.

Jordan McNamara

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

I've been bearish on Trevor Lawrence thus far in his career. I thought he was anointed early, and several key flaws in his profile were overlooked. I have been encouraged by his progress over the past two months. He has been a locked-in top 10 quarterback in dynasty his entire career and now started to pay off from a production perspective.

Andy Hicks

Sam Darnold, Carolina

Despite suffering under terrible coaching since his introduction to the NFL, first with the Jets and then with the Panthers, Darnold has looked great since returning from injury. Seven touchdowns and only one interception are great game-manager numbers. His 341 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs indicate perhaps more. What happens next in his career is crucial. Worth holding.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh

Pickett has been patchy in his rookie season. Very patchy. Since returning from a concussion, though, he seems to have come to grips with his role, and he can enter 2023 with confidence. A full offseason, without the pressures of the draft process, should be of enormous benefit. He has a great group of receivers around him and could be a massive improver in his second season.

Running Back Movement

Will Grant

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia

Although his production has not been great while Jalen Hurts is out, Miles Sanders is the workhorse option to have from the Eagles' running backs. He's not seeing much action in the passing game, but Sanders has nearly no competition from Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Sanders's upside will always be limited because Jalen Hurts runs the ball a lot as well, but Sanders is the only running back worth having from the Eagles.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore

Dobbins has been back since week 14, which is coincidently the same time that Lamar Jackson has been out of the lineup. Without Jackson's legs, Dobbins has been posting impressive stats - including three games with 90+ rushing yards despite seeing only about 25 snaps a game. There are a lot of questions around the Baltimore backfield going into the post-season, but if he continues to perform at a high level, with Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill both UFA at the end of the season, Dobbins could find himself in a much bigger role in 2023.

Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta

As the season winds down and Atlanta aims for their top 10 pick in the draft, one star continues to impress - Tyler Allgeier. Over the last three games, on just 60 total touches, Allgeier has almost 350 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. He has taken over the feature back role from Cordarrelle Patterson and looks like he's going to be a long-term solution to Atlanta's running issues. He should head into 2023 as a starting running back in most fantasy leagues.

Chad Parsons

Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers

Ekeler is coming off two elite seasons in a row and, despite being 28 years old in 2023, has quality comps to hit for another RB1 season or two. Plus, Ekeler has a receiving-centric profile to age more gracefully in his later 20s and is under contract to stick with the Chargers (and Justin Herbert). Ekeler is up to RB9 in my running back rankings, a few spots higher than a month or two ago.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

Cook mired through a down year (by his standards) in 2022. At 28 years old, cracks in the elite production foundation are typically fatal from a career arc perspective, and Cook is the lowest ranked of the notable 28+ year-old backs in my running back rankings and outside of RB25, dropping nine total spots.

Jordan McNamara

James Cook, Buffalo

I'm optimistic about James Cook heading into the offseason. Devin Singletary is a starter, and Cook should get some playoff work to boost his profile. If Singletary tests free agency, Cook has a real chance to be a riser in the offseason. He has shown explosive ability and growth as a runner, which he could showcase in 2023 with a lead role.

Zonovan Knight, NY Jets

Zonovan Knight had a good three-game stretch but is now back to splitting time with Ty Johnson and no longer projects as a fantasy football factor. He will be behind Breece Hall and competing with more experienced running backs like Michael Carter and James Robinson. Knight is more likely to be fighting for a roster spot than a starting spot in 2023.