Cutting Through the Noise, Week 12

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

Jonathan Taylor

RB1 and Overall No. 4

Jonathan Taylor was one of the best running backs in college football from the moment he suited up for Wisconsin. He started as a true freshman and led the team all three seasons. He didn’t quite edge out Melvin Gordon for the most productive back in Wisconsin history, but Taylor did average over 2,000 yards. In his final season, he turned 320 rushes into 2,003 yards and 21 touchdowns. He also caught 26 passes which just barely reaches the receptions threshold we look for in dynasty prospects. Taylor finished fifth in Heisman voting behind Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, and Chase Young.

Taylor ran an impressive 4.39 second 40-yard-dash at a whopping 226 pounds. He entered the 2020 draft as the most well-rounded prospect since Saquon Barkley, though the league had wised up to waiting to draft running backs since then. We knew we may not see a running back in the first round, but draft night came as a shock when Kansas City elected to break the running back seal with the 32nd overall pick and it was not Taylor. Not only did the Chiefs pass over Taylor, but they skipped over the consensus top-3 backs to draft Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Taylor was passed over once more with the Lions' selection of DeAndre Swift before finally being drafted with the Colts’ second of two second-round picks.

The Good

As a rookie, Taylor finished third in the NFL in rushing yards despite handling nearly 100 fewer attempts than Dalvin Cook at number two. He also had immediate involvement in the passing game even while sharing a backfield with one of the league’s most productive third-down backs in Nyheim Hines. Taylor finished his first season with 1468 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns.

Taylor’s number one overall dynasty value stemmed from his incredible sophomore performance. This is where his story starts. The Colts acquired Carson Wentz after the surprise retirement of Phillip Rivers and transitioned to a run-first offense. They attempted the fifth most rushes in the league with 499.

Taylor handled exactly 100 more touches than in his rookie season. He finished the season with 1811 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. He also tacked on 40 receptions for 360 yards and two touchdowns. He led the league in yards after contact with 250 more than Najee Harris at number two. His explosive run rate was the highest in the league, as he finished with the most rushes of 50+ yards. He capped off his sophomore campaign with a first-team all-pro selection and finished second behind only Cooper Kupp in the offensive player of the year voting.

In 2022 he’s handling one of the league’s top snap shares once again, but he’s missed two games and is missing his 2021 marks in every statistical category.

The Bad

As a sophomore, Jonathan Taylor hit the lottery in terms of opportunity. In 2020 Marlon Mack, unfortunately, tore his Achilles and missed the entirety of the season. In 2021 the Colts elected not to replace him as they had hoped he’d be able to return to form post-recovery. Mack never managed to regain his burst, which left the door open for Taylor to handle a league-winning workload.

In hindsight, we may have been able to see a red flag in Taylor’s impressive 2021 season in that the Colts did not plan to be without a viable second running back, but that’s irrelevant, given they came into 2022 with a similar lack of viable depth. In fact, the Colts moved on from Nyheim Hines in Week 9, and we still haven’t seen Taylor pay off on his dynasty value. His only competition for touches at this point in the season is a special teams player in Deon Jackson, who, in his defense, has done well with his opportunity. We’re halfway through the season and can mostly agree no running back is worth the top overall selection, but where is Taylor specifically lacking?

In 2021 Taylor led the league by a wide margin in yards before contact, which is primarily an offensive line stat. This season he is seventh. He’s also averaging 4.6 yards per carry as opposed to 5.5 last year, which most consider being another offensive line stat. The Colts' offensive line entered the season as a consensus top-3 selection and is now ranked 9^th by our Matt Bitonti. In short, one of the league’s highest-paid offensive lines has been highly disappointing, and Taylor is not adding the value required to make up for it.

Should there be a different top running back, or are we seeing a value shift for the position as a whole?

Conclusion

The main point of listing Taylor’s accolades in “The Good” was to serve as a precursor to his subsequent dynasty value. In laments terms, he checked all the boxes for a player to be at least considered for the top overall selection. The real reason he was being drafted in the top spot was that he handled 25 more touches than the second-highest running back. He also handled 68% of the snaps, which represents a true workhorse in today’s NFL. Running back has been getting more difficult to pin down as the NFL leans heavily into two-back systems, so getting a seemingly guaranteed 25 points each week from one position was worth the risk. Unfortunately, we have not gotten a guaranteed 25 points from Taylor in 2022. That type of running back does not exist at all this season.

Taylor’s fall to the fourth spot, and even further for me, has more to do with the position than it does with himself. All players miss time, but running backs tend to miss the most due to the nature of their position. They’re also the most sensitive to game environments. Every position is susceptible to poor offensive line play but running back is especially so.

We’ve known these things since the dawn of fantasy football, but we’ve had four to five backs averaging over 20 points each season, so we were willing to take the risk on eight or nine of them in the first round. In 2022 we’ve got just three backs averaging over 20 points per game. Those backs are Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler. None of which I’m drafting in the first round in dynasty. Taylor himself is averaging just 14 points per game. It appears that with the shifting focus on having multiple productive backs, we’re going to need to knock running backs down a peg and give a slight boost to the wide receivers.

Taylor remains the top overall running back, but multiple backs are nearly as deserving at later average draft positions. If we can get added value in addition to Ken Walker, Bijan Robinson, or even Breece Hall in exchange for Taylor, those are trades worth exploring.