Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.
| Rank | Player | Team | Rank | Player | Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dak Prescott | Dal | 13 | Kirk Cousins | Min |
| 10 | Tua Tagovailoa | Mia | 14 | Derek Carr | LV |
| 11 | Trevor Lawrence | Jac | 15 | Matthew Stafford | LAR |
| 12 | Justin Fields | Chi |
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Justin Fields
QB11 and Overall No. 75
During a time when college football was littered with NFL talent, Justin Fields managed to stand out as one of the best options. His box-score production may not have always been eye-popping, but his highlights certainly were. It didn’t start that way for Fields as he began his college career backing up Jake Fromm for the Georgia Bulldogs. He attempted just 39 passes as a freshman before deciding to move on. He then transferred to Ohio State. In his first (and only) full season, he completed 354 passes for 3273 yards and 41 touchdowns. It didn’t hurt that he was passing to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.
His final season was shorter due to COVID-19 protocols, but that didn’t stop the loaded Buckeyes from sending Fields out with a bang. In the National Championship semi-finals, Fields had the chance to go head-to-head against the once-in-a-generation quarterback prospect who was locked in as the first overall pick ahead of him. Trevor Lawrence may have had the better draft profile, but Fields was the better quarterback that day. After defeating Clemson, Fields ended up losing in the National Championship to a loaded Alabama squad led by another one of his draft day competitors in Mac Jones.
Fields entered the 2021 draft conversation anywhere from the second-best quarterback to the sixth-best quarterback in a class that would see five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. While it felt clear to me, and many others, that Fields was the best quarterback prospect aside from Lawrence, he fell to pick 11 as the fourth quarterback off the board. In Dynasty, we had the unique decision to make is whether we trust our pre-draft analysis or the draft capital. Trey Lance and Zach Wilson ended up being drafted ahead of Fields, with Jones falling just behind.
It took a long road to get here, but after an extremely tough rookie season for most of the 2021 quarterback class, Fields is battling to be the most valuable of the bunch.
The Bad
Much like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields needs to be given a pass for how 2021 panned out. Fields spent a portion of the year backing up Andy Dalton and was only given mop-up duty once the season was out of hand and the coaching staff had one foot out the door. That leads us to 2022, and really the tale of two halves for Fields.
Matt Nagy packed his bags and headed back to Kansas City, which led Matt Eberflus to check in as the Bears' new head coach. As a defensive-minded coach coming from the Colts staff, it was to be expected that Eberflus would want to run the air out of the ball. What we may not have expected was how negative of an impact that would have on Fields. If you’re a fan of Cutting Through the Noise, this will be the third time you’ve heard this story, as I’ve highlighted both Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool previously. The cliff notes for those pieces boil down to “The Bears' offense is not good for receivers.”
In the first three games, Fields did not complete more than 10 passes, but at least he was averaging 9 rushes per game. As the season has gone on, Fields has both maintained his rushing volume and improved as a rusher, but what about the passing game? After all, it is difficult for a rushing quarterback to have prolonged success without the ability to unload the box. Fields is still averaging just 20 passing attempts per game. That puts him dead last among starting quarterbacks. He’s also last in air yards amongst quarterbacks who have played the full season. He’s got just one game over 200 yards passing, with 208 in week five. In short, the passing game is still just not there.
Justin Fields is an impressive quarterback, and we love to see his recent production, but this offense has been holding him back all season, and only recently has Eberflus decided to hold him back in a different way. The production on the ground is phenomenal, especially in the last three weeks, but the Bears need to find a way to succeed through the air if Fields is going to reach his ceiling.
The Good
Since the so-called “mini-bye” in which Eberflus and the rest of the Bears coaching staff decided to learn from offenses like Baltimore’s with Lamar Jackson, and Buffalo’s with Josh Allen, we’ve seen a fantasy explosion from Fields. The first question is, "Why did they wait this long to look at how teams use great mobile quarterbacks?" The second question is, "Why just the running game?" We won’t get answers to either of those, so we will look at what Fields can control.
We know he’s being limited in some capacity as a passer and that he’s improving as a rusher. So, what has he done in 2022 with his opportunities? He’s completed 59% of his passes for 1,322 yards. While not great, Fields has been pressured at the second-highest rate and has been sacked a league-high 33 times. On the ground, Fields has the most attempts in the league and is second only to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards. In total rushing yards, Fields is 11th overall, ironically just two spots ahead of his backup running back Khalil Herbert. This has led to Fields sitting at 7th in fantasy points amongst quarterbacks despite his struggles as a passer.
While Fields is a much different player than Jackson, and one could argue was a better passer coming out, the early careers are similar. Fields' current situation is one part scheme limitation and another part underperforming. We know he can be a tremendous passer through his time with the Buckeyes, and the Bears added Claypool to help. Can Fields continue to grow as a passer to help sustain his incredible rushing success? Can the Bears facilitate such a change?
Conclusion
It’s difficult to be upset with Fields when just last week, he threw three touchdowns and broke Michael Vick's single-game rushing record at quarterback. It feels like nitpicking, but Fields’ recent value hike needs to be accompanied by passing success if it’s going to hold. Even at a macro level, the Bears will need a pass rate higher than 48.4% to compete with their current roster in today’s NFL. You don’t need to align with the analytics nerds to agree, either.
Look at a team like San Francisco, who has found meaningful success with a rush rate of 43.7%. The 49ers drafted Trey Lance to be what we’ve seen from Fields. Unfortunately, Lance suffered a season-ending injury, so we don’t have a fair comparison, but I believe we’ve seen enough to know what Fields could have done in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Alas, he is not in Shanahan’s offense, and we’ve got what we’ve got. Eberflus and his offensive staff have done well adapting thus far, but betting on Fields at cost is a bet that the Bears will develop faster than the defenses opposing them.
I appreciate Fields' recent success, but the coast is not yet clear. Fields is better as a passer than he is currently showing, and we can’t expect 100 yards rushing on 15 attempts each week. I do not believe Fields belongs in the conversation with Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow (yet), but he has the talent to get there. Most of the limiting factors come from a first-time coaching staff who we’re hoping to learn as they go. Things aren’t all bad for Chicago in the present, and they’ve got a bright future with Justin Fields. We’ll see how long it takes them to get there.