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It’s a tough sell to try and glean any lessons from Week 1. We’ve only seen one set of games. They’re just one data point. Like most folks, I want to overreact. We waited months to get here. Regardless, there are some takeaways from each skill position worth monitoring. Let’s start at quarterback.

Quarterback: Joe Burrow, Bengals

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 22.7, (Actual) 18.2

What a disaster.

If you didn’t know already, I’m a Bengals fan. But, to be clear, I’m not one of those fans. I’m realistic. Cincinnati did enough over the offseason to keep my hopes of another playoff run alive. And coming into Week 1, it was reasonable to be optimistic. Joe Burrow had been one of the most efficient and accurate quarterbacks of 2021, with multiple receiving options at his disposal. I didn’t count the opposing defense as one of those options, though.

Advice Moving Forward:

Joe Burrow falls to the back of the Top 12 as an every-week option. We should expect more volatility with Tee Higgins’s Week 2 status still unknown, but don’t rush to the waiver wire yet.

Burrow’s boxscore shouldn’t be your only data source. I mean, don’t get me wrong. Five turnovers are bad. But for Burrow, it’s an all-timer. He’s never thrown more than three interceptions dating back to his stint at Ohio State. However, for now, let’s set aside the takeaways and look at reasons why it won’t (shouldn’t?) happen again.

Think back to last year after Week 2. Cincinnati had the second-lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Burrow’s had an 8.5 aDOT. Intermediate throws were necessary to generate explosive plays as the offensive line found footing. They’re now at league average in PROE, with Burrow’s aDOT dipping to 7.9.

A shift like this doesn’t sound significant, but it kept their drives moving. They averaged 42.9 yards per drive outside of their turnovers. They were at 33.3 across all of 2021. The adjustments are helping. However, the team needs a better environment to put it on display.

Joe Mixon averaged 2.3 yards before contact in 2021. The offensive line was already up to 3.0 against the Steelers’ rush defense. We’ll need to see how healthy Burrow’s passing trio will be for Week 2, but the offense can (and should) rebound over the coming weeks.

Running Back: Darrell Henderson, Rams

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 7.2, (Actual) 7.3

Like I said in the intro, I don’t want to overreact. But it was tough to watch the Rams’ offense on Thursday. Well, unless you rostered Cooper Kupp. But the backfield split caught my eye. Sean McVay hinted at his intentions throughout the offseason. Despite Cam Akers’ semi-miraculous return, the Rams appeared poised to employ a heavier split with Akers and Darrell Henderson than in years past. I expected a 50-50 timeshare. We got something much different.

Advice Moving Forward

Hold and start Henderson as we gain more clarity. He moves into the high-end RB2 conversation with favorable matchups over the next two weeks.

Henderson wasn’t just the starter. He dominated the running back workload for Los Angeles. Akers earned 17.6% of the carries without a single target from Matthew Stafford’s 41 attempts. The raw breakdown between Akers and Henderson already paints a bleak picture. A situational analysis of their usage doesn’t help.

Charts provided by Nathan Jahnke.

Think about the traits we ascribe to a top-12 running back. We look for every-down players on the field independent of the game’s situation. Henderson checks all of those boxes. His 0.03 EPA per attempt vastly outperformed Akers’ efficiency (-0.93), and it was Henderson who converted two key first downs for the Rams. But we assumed Akers was the better receiver and could make for any loss in carries through the air. Wrong again.

Henderson earning more targets (5 to 0) only scratches the surface. He also ran almost four times as many routes as Akers (33 to 9) with a positive aDOT. Henderson wasn’t just another option but an integral one. And he’s got the chance to continue the trend.

The Rams need to do some naval gazing, but the schedule has two get-right opponents on deck. The Falcons just gave up 142 yards to the Saints’ rushing attack, and the Cardinals surrendered two receiving scores to the Chiefs’ running backs. Both contests favor Henderson’s skillset. Fantasy managers should hold (or start Henderson depending on your options) as the Rams’ offense gets back on track.

Wide Receiver: Drake London, Falcons

Week 1 Results: (Projected) 10.2, (Actual) 12.4

I had my reservations about Drake London coming into the season. Hold up. Let me rephrase. I had my concerns about London’s situation. It seemed cool having London with Kyle Pitts as two towering targets for Marcus Mariota. But we can’t build the whole plan out of vibes. London missing valuable preseason experience looked like it’d set him back, but he had a modest performance in his debut.

Advice Moving Forward

London is a mid-tier WR3 with a path to improve as the season progresses. Start him only on an as-needed basis as he continues to develop.

London’s 7-74-0 stat line is what I had hoped for with the Falcons’ needing to retool their offense. But I feared they’d try to turn him into something he’s not. Think of how the Ravens forced Marquise Brown into an X-receiver spot or Mike Williams’ role as a deep threat until last season. But right away, it seems rational coaching prevailed.

Reception Perception’s profile on London is nearly identical to how the Falcons deployed him on Sunday. He didn’t run out of the slot but lined up in close formations for simpler coverage. It’s the type of game planning you want for a rookie. Plus, as a result, his Week 1 opportunity shows promise for future weeks.

I pulled a few opportunity and efficiency metrics for all active rookie receivers to see how London stacked up to his peers. Each situation is different but worth contextualizing. London’s numbers compare well, but I simplified the table using ranks.

Like in real life, London stands out in a crowd. Not only did the rookie show out against others in his category. He outshined some of our favorite veterans. He’s 12th in YPRR for all wide receivers with an alpha-sized air yard share. It’s fair to worry about the offense as it comes together, but London will be an integral piece fantasy managers will need to have in their rosters.